The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.13

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1897
• Prev Close: 1.1910
• % chg. over the last day: +0.11%

The euro rose against the US dollar on the back of an increase in the trade balance. As trading volumes at the end of the week were significantly reduced, the currencies of the 10 group entered a correction phase.

• Support levels: 1.1836, 1.1704
• Resistance levels: 1.1915, 1.1990

The main scenario for EUR/USD is selling. The technical picture looks bearish. The MACD is near zero, and divergence has formed, which indicates an approaching correction. The ADX is reacting strongly to the southern impulse, showing an increase in bearish pressure.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above the level of 1.1915, the pair may return to growth to 1.1990.

• – The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in Germany (Apr) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – The US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (Mar) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3706
• Prev Close: 1.3737
• % chg. over the last day: +0.23%

The sterling rose amid the correction of the US dollar. However, the situation with the vaccine from AstraZeneca, which could undermine the vaccination program in the UK, still puts pressure on the British currency.

• Support levels: 1.3705, 1.3680
• Resistance levels: 1.3848, 1.3929

The main scenario for GBP/USD is selling. The pair has come close to the first support level. As long as the price is below the moving averages, the risk of a breakout is high. But the ADX shows a decrease in the potential of the southern trend. A divergence has formed on the MACD. It indicates a possible temporary stop in southward movement.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3800, the pound may move upward to 1.3848.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.68
• Prev Close: 109.37
• % chg. over the last day: -0.28%

The dollar-yen pair rose on Monday amid a correction in the dollar index and US Treasuries, the yield of which rose to 1.70%. The market has seen a decrease in demand for defensive assets, including gold, Swiss franc, and yen.

• Support levels: 108.35, 107.08
• Resistance levels: 110.32, 110.98

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range. The price is still fixed below the moving averages. The MACD is near zero, and convergence has formed on the chart, which indicates a possible stop of the decline. At the same time, the ADX shows a decline in the bearish trend potential. By a combination of factors, there is a signal for sideways movement within the day.

The alternative scenario implies the price fixing above 109.90. In this case, the pair may resume growth to 110.32.

• – The US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (Mar) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2528
• Prev Close: 1.2560
• % chg. over the last day: +0.25%

The pair continues to trade in a narrow sideways range, as oil quotes have stabilized around $59 per barrel. The slight decrease was due to the continuing decline in the dollar index.

• Support levels: 1.2554, 1.2501
• Resistance levels: 1.2629, 1.2646

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2554 and 1.2629. Specifications are mixed. The price is stuck between moving averages. The MACD is near zero. The ADX shows a strong reaction to a decline in quotations, which indicates a risk of a breakdown of the first support level.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to consolidate below 1.2554, the pair may resume its decline to 1.2501. A breakout of 1.2629 would indicate an advance to 1.2646 or higher.