The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.09

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1866
• Prev Close: 1.1912
• % chg. over the last day: +0.39%

The euro rose against the US dollar on the back of negative data on the labor market. Following the data release, the Treasury yield fell to 1.62%, which supported the bulls in the pair. In addition, the dovish comments of Jerome Powell and Fed’s board member James Bullard put additional pressure on the dollar.

• Support levels: 1.1836, 1.1704
• Resistance levels: 1.1915, 1.1990

The main scenario for EUR/USD is cautious buying. The technical picture looks bullish. The MACD is above zero, but divergence has formed, which indicates an approaching correction. The ADX showed a low reaction to the northern impulse, indicating a decrease in bullish pressure.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below the level of 1.1836, the pair may return to the decline to 1.1704. A breakout of 1.1915 would indicate continued growth.

• – The US Producer Price Index (PPI) (m/m) (Mar) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3734
• Prev Close: 1.3729
• % chg. over the last day: -0.04%

The sterling declined on Thursday, despite the fall in the dollar index. It indicates the British currency’s weakness, which may show a steep peak in the event of a correction in the US dollar. The pressure is still coming from the AstraZeneca vaccine situation, which could undermine the UK’s vaccination program.

• Support levels: 1.3705, 1.3680
• Resistance levels: 1.3848, 1.3929

The main scenario for GBP/USD is selling. The pair has come close to the first support level. As long as the price is below the moving averages, the risk of a breakdown is high. But ADX shows a decrease in the potential of the southern trend, and divergence has formed on the MACD. It indicates a possible temporary stop in the southern movement.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3800, the pound may move upward to 1.3848.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.83
• Prev Close: 109.27
• % chg. over the last day: -0.51%

On Thursday, the dollar-yen pair continued to decline following the dollar index and the American treasuries, the yield of which fell to 1.62%. The market is witnessing an increase in demand for defensive assets, including gold, Swiss franc, and yen, which puts additional pressure on the pair.

• Support levels: 108.35, 107.08
• Resistance levels: 110.32, 110.98

The main scenario is selling. The price is still fixed below the moving averages. The MACD is below zero. And convergence has formed on the chart, which indicates a possible acceleration of the fall. At the same time, the ADX shows a decrease in trend potential. By a combination of factors, a moderate southern signal is observed.

An alternative scenario implies the price fixing above 109.90. In this case, the pair may resume growth to 110.32.

• – The US Producer Price Index (PPI) (m/m) (Mar) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2605
• Prev Close: 1.2559
• % chg. over the last day: -0.36%

The pair continues to trade in a narrow sideways range, as oil quotes have stabilized around $59 per barrel. The slight decrease was due to the continuing decline in the dollar index.

• Support levels: 1.2554, 1.2501
• Resistance levels: 1.2629, 1.2646

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2554 and 1.2629. Specifications are mixed. The price is stuck between moving averages. The MACD is near zero. The ADX shows a strong reaction to the decline in quotations, which indicates a probable risk of a breakdown of the first support level.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below 1.2554, the pair may resume its decline to 1.2501. A breakout of 1.2629 would indicate growth to 1.2646 or higher.

• – Canada Employment Change (Mar) at 15:30 (GMT+3).