The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.30

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1792
• Prev Close: 1.1764
• % chg. over the last day: -0.24%

On Monday, the euro completely leveled the entire Friday growth. The price closed at last week’s lows, which indicated the likelihood of further decline. Positive expectations for the US labor market and negative sentiment in Europe due to new quarantine measures put pressure on the pair.

• Support levels: 1.1746, 1.1688
• Resistance levels: 1.1889, 1.1990

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling. There are few important events on the economic calendar today, so low volatility is expected. Technical indicators still show the likelihood of the continuation of the smooth downtrend. The ADX continues to show a subtle reaction at the minimum price decline.

Alternative scenario: if the price gains a foothold above the level of 1.1795, the pair may start a corrective rise to 1.1889 or higher.

• – The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (Mar) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
• – The US CB Consumer Confidence Index (Mar) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3782
• Prev Close: 1.3758
• % chg. over the last day: -0.17%

The sterling showed higher volatility than the euro on Monday. The growth that took place during the European session completely vanished later in the American session. The price bounced off the moving average on the daily chart, and a bearish engulfing candlestick formed, indicating strong bearish pressure.

• Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3610
• Resistance levels: 1.3812, 1.3846

The main scenario for trading GBP/USD is selling. The technical indicators have changed completely. The ADX has shown a strong reaction to the decline. But the price stays between the moving averages, which may indicate the development of a sideways trend. Based on a combination of factors, there is a moderate southern signal.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3812, the pound may resume its growth.

• – The US CB Consumer Confidence Index (Mar) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.74
• Prev Close: 109.80
• % chg. over the last day: +0.05%

In the dollar-yen pair, volatility has eased slightly, but the bullish sentiment remains strong. The fundamentals of the stock market’s growth are still solid, and the dollar is supported by rising bond yields and the expectation of faster economic growth.

• Support levels: 109.38, 108.35
• Resistance levels: 110.32, 110.71

The main scenario is buying. The ADX on the H1, the H4, and the D1 timeframes shows the growth of bullish pressure, but the upside potential is slightly reduced. A divergence has formed on the MACD, and this is the first signal for an impending correction. But as long as the price is above the moving averages, buying is safe.

An alternative scenario implies price fixing below 109.38. In this case, the pair could drop to 108.35.

• – The US CB Consumer Confidence Index (Mar) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2571
• Prev Close: 1.2587
• % chg. over the last day: +0.13%

The Canadian dollar lost the least among the G10 currencies against the US dollar. Continued growth in oil prices ahead of the OPEC + meeting puts pressure on the pair. The daily chart shows that strong resistance has formed, which could trigger a southern pullback or a renewed decline.

• Support levels: 1.2574, 1.2446
• Resistance levels: 1.2629, 1.2745

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2546 and 1.2629. The ADX fell to its minimum values, and the MACD is at the zero level, which indicates the development of a sideways movement. Since the price bounced twice from the resistance of 1.2629, the likelihood of a correction increased.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below 1.2546, the pair may resume its southern movement to 1.2466.