by JustForex
A report from the IFO Institute for Germany allowed the euro to rise slightly against the dollar. Business climate indices continue to grow. In March, this figure has exceeded the values of July 2019, which indicates the business community’s confidence in the rapid recovery of the economy after the pandemic, despite the new restrictions. However, the US statistics are positive as well, which limits the growth of the euro.
The main scenario for EUR/USD is selling. No important events are scheduled for today, so calm trading is expected. However, technical indicators show that bears are stronger than bulls. The ADX has risen at the minimum price decrease in the Asian session, while the price remains below the moving averages.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above the level of 1.1851, the pair may start a corrective rise to 1.1889 or higher.
The sterling is correcting after falling in the first half of last week. Growth in retail sales supported sterling bulls. However, the market may be wary of buying as the yield spread between the UK Gilts and US Treasuries continues to narrow, indicating the dollar bulls’ strength.
The main scenario for trading GBP/USD is buying. Technical indicators remain on the side of the bulls. The ADX shows decreasing upside potential. But the price remains above the moving averages, and the MACD is in the positive area. It indicates an increase in the pair, but the first resistance level may limit growth.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates below 1.3680, the pound may resume decline.
In the dollar-yen pair, volatility continues to rise amid a rebound in the stock market. The pair managed to get out of its range, consolidating above the resistance level of 109.34. The rise in share prices after the publication of positive consumer confidence data supported the pair and the dollar. In this light, medium-term growth expectations have straightened.
The main scenario is buying. The ADX on the H1, the H4, and the D1 timeframes shows increased bullish pressure. Convergence has formed on the MACD. Considering that the moving averages are directed steeply upward, the probability of a breakdown of the resistance level at 109.67 is high.
An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 109.05. In this case, the pair could drop to 108.35.
The pair fell slightly on the back of rising oil prices. However, most of the decline can be attributed to bearish sentiment in the US dollar within the day. As the news that the container ship has been refloated has put pressure on oil quotes, we can expect the pair to resume growth in the medium term.
The main scenario is buying. The ADX showed growth in bullish pressure in the Asian session. The MACD is above zero, and the price has consolidated above the moving averages. It indicates a high likelihood of a resumption of northern movement.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold below 1.2580, the pair may resume its southern movement to 1.2466.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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