The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.24

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1933
• Prev Close: 1.1848
• % chg. over the last day: -0.71%

On Tuesday, the euro showed its strongest fall since March 4. The main reason was the growth of the US dollar, as demand for it increased due to the fall of risky assets. Also, traders are worried about the escalation of the trade conflict between the EU and the UK.

• Support levels: 1.1834, 1.1746
• Resistance levels: 1.1894, 1.1990

The main scenario for EUR/USD is selling. The ADX shows a strong rise in bearish pressure on the pair. The trend indicators are not at the maximum, which means that the pair has not reached the oversold area yet and may continue to fall. The MACD and moving average direction confirm this scenario.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates above the level of 1.1894, the pair may return to the previous range.

• – The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Mar) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – The Eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Mar) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – The US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) (Feb) at 14:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3857
• Prev Close: 1.3747
• % chg. over the last day: -0,79%

The fall of the sterling turned out to be more significant compared to the euro. In addition to the dollar growth, the pair is under pressure from the escalation of the EU-UK trade dispute. The EU authorities promise to tighten the rules for the supply of vaccines to other countries, and the UK is becoming a potential main target.

• Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3610
• Resistance levels: 1.3875, 1.3997

The main scenario for GBP/USD is selling. The bearish direction has strengthened not only in the short term but also in the medium term, as the ADX shows a significant rise in bearish pressure on the H1 and the H4. For the second day in a row, the pair breaks through significant support levels, which indicates a likely continuation of the steep dive.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3809, the pound may move upward to 1.3875.

• – The UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) (y/y) (Feb) at 09:00 (GMT +2);
• – The UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Mar) at 11:30 (GMT +2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 108.82
• Prev Close: 108.61
• % chg. over the last day: -0,20%

The dollar-yen pair is still showing low volatility, despite the growing anxiety in the stock markets. The dollar’s growth supports the pair, but it could not completely neutralize the effect of the fall in stock prices. As a result, the pair closed slightly in the red.

• Support levels: 108.35, 107.08
• Resistance levels: 109.34, 109.86

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 109.34 and 108.35. The ADX on the hourly timeframe is still close to the minimum values. The MACD fell into the negative area, and the price is below the moving averages. It indicates a predominance of bears, but the first support level may limit the decline.

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 108.35. In this case, the pair may fall to 107.08. A breakout of 109.34 would resume growth.

• – The US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) (Feb) at 14:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2519
• Prev Close: 1.2578
• % chg. over the last day: +0.47%

The pair continues to show strong corrective gains as oil prices plummet. WTI has lost about $ 4 in a day, which is a significant decline. Due to the growth of the dollar index, the outlook for the pair remains positive.

• Support levels: 1.2574, 1.2446
• Resistance levels: 1.2745, 1.2844

The main scenario is buying. The ADX declined during the Asian session, indicating the likelihood of a corrective pullback to the 100 SMA moving average at 1.2509. However, the main direction will remain north as long as the price is above this level and buying is safer.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold below 1.2509, the pair may resume its southern movement.