The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1978
• Prev Close: 1.1913
• % chg. over the last day: -0.54%.

On Thursday, the euro fell against the dollar as a sell-off in shares pushed the dollar higher. Also, the market received positive data for the dollar from the manufacturing sector. The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index unexpectedly rose to 51.8 from 23.1 a month earlier, indicating a big difference in the US and Eurozone economies’ recovery.

• Support levels: 1.1882, 1.1834
• Resistance levels: 1.1990, 1.2113

The main scenario for EUR/USD is sideways trading between 1.1882 and 1.1990. The ADX showed a very weak reaction to Thursday’s decline. At the same time, the position of the MACD below the zero mark and the price-fixing below the moving averages indicate that the pair will continue to decline. Mixed indicators show a flat.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to consolidate below the level of 1.1882, the pair may return to the decline to 1.1834. A breakdown of 1.1990 could send the pair towards 1.2113.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3958
• Prev Close: 1.3926
• % chg. over the last day: -0,23%

The sterling showed little reaction to the appreciation of the dollar, and at the same time, the positive background was unable to support the pair. The Bank of England comments remained unchanged, which slightly disappointed the FX market. But as the decision was not surprising, volatility remained low.

• Support levels: 1.3857, 1.3775
• Resistance levels: 1.3997, 1.4224

The main scenario for GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3857 and 1.3997. The ADX shows a low value of potential and falls on all timeframes from the H1 to the D1. It indicates a high likelihood of the pair staying in the range until the beginning of next week.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3997, it may resume growth to the year’s highs. A break at 1.3857 could send the pair towards 1.3775.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 108.85
• Prev Close: 108.92
• % chg. over the last day: +0,06%

The dollar-yen pair is beginning to show signs of correction from both the technical and the fundamental sides. Falling stock markets could put significant pressure on the pair. Long shadows at the top of the daily candlesticks indicate strong resistance around 109.34.

• Support levels: 108.35, 107.08
• Resistance levels: 109.34, 109.86

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 109.34 and 108.35. The ADX on the hourly timeframe is kept at the minimum values. The likelihood of a quick resumption of growth in the pair has significantly decreased. The price-fixing below the moving averages more and more indicates a fall in price to the first support level.

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 108.35. In this case, the pair may return to the decline to 107.08. A breakdown of 109.34 will resume growth.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2404
• Prev Close: 1.2489
• % chg. over the last day: +0.69%

The Canadian dollar showed the greatest volatility among the G10 currencies, as a result of which the pair broke through two resistance levels at once. The reason for the sharp rise in the pair was the fall in oil prices. New restrictions in Europe amid the pandemic have worsened forecasts of global energy demand.

• Support levels: 1.2446, 1.2364
• Resistance levels: 1.2512, 1.2589

The main scenario is buying. On Thursday’s northern impulse, the ADX showed a strong reaction. The MACD has sharply entered the positive area, and the price has consolidated above the moving averages. It may indicate a mid-term northern correction.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold below 1.2466, the pair may resume its southern movement.

• – The Core Retail Sales Index in Canada (m/m) (Jan) at 15:30 (GMT+2).