The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.01

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2174
• Prev Close: 1.2073
• % chg. over the last day: -0.83%

Friday saw the pair’s largest intraday fall since March last year. The weekly candle closed in the red, forming a bearish engulfing. On the daily chart, the price has returned to the range between the moving averages. The dynamics in the market indicate at least a halt in the northern trend.

• Support levels: 1.2062, 1.2023
• Resistance levels: 1.2179, 1.2222

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling. Friday’s bearish momentum completely changed the picture for the pair. The moving averages are heading down, and the ADX indicates a reversal in the mid-term trend. The potential for further decline remains high.

Alternative scenario: if the price gains a foothold above the level of 1.2146, the pair may return to growth up to 1.2179.

• – The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Feb) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
• – The Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Feb) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Feb) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.4006
• Prev Close: 1.3926
• % chg. over the last day: -0.57%

On Friday, the pair continued to decline, though at a slower pace. The sterling, unlike the euro, continues to show strength. Despite the strong momentum of the last week, medium and long-term technical indicators remained on the side of the bulls. In the Asian session, the sterling almost completely recovered from the losses of February 26.

• Support levels: 1.3886, 1.3819
• Resistance levels: 1.4224, 1.4300

The main scenario for GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3886 and 1.4065. The market is currently experiencing a short-term correction, which should not exceed the average SMA 100. The ADX has not yet shown a reaction to the pullback.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.4065, it may resume its growth.

• – The UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Feb) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Feb) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 106.22
• Prev Close: 106.55
• % chg. over the last day: +0.32%

The dollar-yen pair continues to grow steadily following the dollar index. Defensive assets such as gold, Swiss franc, and yen continue to sell heavily. But at the same time, the demand for risky assets also fell. This could cause a bullish rally in the pair to stop.

• Support levels: 104.92, 104.40
• Resistance levels: 106.70, 106.94

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 106.70 – 105.93. The dollar-yen pair has formed an upward channel. But the price is already near its upper border, which may cause a pullback. Also, the ADX and MACD indicate the southern correction. On the MACD, a divergence is formed.

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 105.95. In this case, the pair may return to decline to 104.92. A break at 106.70 could indicate further gains.

• – The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Feb) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2601
• Prev Close: 1.2734
• % chg. over the last day: +1.06%

The pair accelerated its gains on Friday, showing the fastest pace since November last year. The growth was facilitated by a decrease in quotations on the oil market. However, there is no significant decline in the oil market, which indicates that the northern rally in USD/CAD will stop shortly.

• Support levels: 1.2608, 1.2467
• Resistance levels: 1.2745, 1.2763

The main scenario is cautious buying. Technically, the pair is showing a mid-term north direction, but the February highs have not been broken. This indicates a probable stop near the current levels, and in the medium term, the price may get stuck in the range between the first support and resistance level.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below 1.2608, the pair may resume its decline to 1.2450.