The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.02.26

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2165
• Prev Close: 1.2173
• % chg. over the last day: +0.07%

On Thursday, at the end of the trading day, the pair showed signs of an impending correction. The day closed with a high shadow at the top, while the D1 and H4 timeframes did not show any signs of serious bullish pressure during the week. In this light, it can be assumed that the pair has reached a certain growth limit, or is close to it, which will significantly complicate the further northern movement.

• Support levels: 1.2109, 1.2091
• Resistance levels: 1.2189, 1.2222

The main scenario for trading the EUR/USD is trading in a range between 1.2170 and 1.2109. Despite the strong growth of the euro at the end of the trading day, the price was able to fall below the moving averages, and the MACD was in the negative zone. In this case, the ADX responds only to northern impulses. Mixed technical indicators show a short-term flat.

Alternative scenario: if the price gains a foothold below the level of 1.2109, the pair may return to the decline to 1.2023. Fixation above 1.2170 may bring the pair back to 1.2242.

• – The US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (m/m) (Jan) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – The US Personal Spending (m/m) (Jan) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.4138
• Prev Close: 1.4005
• % chg. over the last day: -0.94%

Long disregard for negative fundamentals such as declining trade with EU countries and labor market problems seem to have allowed sterling to rise to a significant overbought area. As a result, at the end of the week, the pair received a strong blow from above near the highs of April 2018, and a bearish engulfing candlestick formed on the weekly chart.

• Support levels: 1.3819, 1.3775
• Resistance levels: 1.4224, 1.4300

The main scenario for trading the GBP/USD is selling. A correction is likely to happen. Strong southern momentum has reversed the ADX and is now showing increasing bearish potential. As long as the price is below the moving averages, short positions will be relevant.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.4101, it may resume its growth.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 105.86
• Prev Close: 106.23
• % chg. over the last day: +0.36%

The dollar-yen showed growth on Thursday but failed to gain a foothold above the highs of February 17. The rise in the dollar index supports the bulls in the pair, but the fundamentals are not so simple. The sharp rise in profitability led to a fall in the stock market. In this light, factors restraining growth appeared.

• Support levels: 104.92, 104.40
• Resistance levels: 106.43, 106.94

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 106.43 and 105.65. Now the pair is consolidating near the resistance level, which may cause a pullback to the moving average at 105.65. The ADX and the MACD are declining, but so far they do not show signs of a price reversal.

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 105.65. In this case, the pair may return to decline to 104.92. A breakthrough of 106.43 could indicate further gains.

• – The US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (m/m) (Jan) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – The US Personal Spending (m/m) (Jan) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2510
• Prev Close: 1.2600
• % chg. over the last day: +0.72%

The pair rose sharply on Thursday, mainly due to the strengthening of the US dollar throughout the market. Also, the bulls in the USD/CAD were supported by oil that fell by $1 as part of the correction. But despite strong technical momentum, the fundamental background remains bearish in the medium term.

• Support levels: 1.2500, 1.2450
• Resistance levels: 1.2665, 1.2745

The main scenario is buying. It looks like the pair quickly entered the oversold area, which allowed it to quickly rebound. The ADX has reversed and this indicates a possible continuation of the correction. However, it is worth being vigilant, as the southern trend is still valid.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to consolidate below 1.2575, the pair may resume its decline to 1.2450.