The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.02.16

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2123
• Prev Close: 1.2127
• % chg. over the last day: +0.03%.

The EUR/USD remained in the same price range on Monday. Due to the closure of the US market on the President’s Day holiday, the volatility in this pair dropped to 30 points. Today, traders will be monitoring German economic sentiment data from the ZEW institute, which could affect the pair. Economists expect the indicator to continue falling.

• Support levels: 1.2081, 1.2059
• Resistance levels: 1.2155, 1.2189

The main scenario for trading the EUR/USD is buying on a decline. The ADX still reacts to even minimal growth attempts, which indicates the priority of the northern movement. The MACD is in the positive area and the price is above the moving averages. But since the values of the oscillators are minimal, the growth can be slow or even limited by the first resistance level.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below the level of 1.2126, the pair may return to the area of 1.2081 – 1.2059.

• – The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Feb) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – The Eurozone GDP (q/q) (4q) at 12:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3849
• Prev Close: 1.3900
• % chg. over the last day: +0.37%

The sterling continues to renew its yearly highs, gradually moving towards the round 1.4000. The LIBOR rates continue to indicate excess dollar liquidity in the financial system. And the price of North Sea Brent oil is putting additional upward pressure on the pair.

• Support levels: 1.3775, 1.3680
• Resistance levels: 1.3950, 1.4000

The main scenario for trading the GBP/USD is cautious buying on the decline. The continuation of the northern trend on the charts looks fading. The ADX is still reacting to growth, but starting to show a lower value of the upside potential. This indicates the likelihood of the pair stopping soon or of an upcoming correction.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates below 1.3876, it may return to 1.3775.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 104.95
• Prev Close: 105.34
• % chg. over the last day: +0.37%

The dollar-yen pair continues to rise thanks to strong demand for risky assets and an increase in yields on the credit market. Now the pair is trading near the November highs. If a breakthrough takes place and the price fixes higher, a signal about a reversal of the instrument on the weekly chart will be received.

• Support levels: 104.40, 103.56
• Resistance levels: 105.68, 106.12

The main scenario is buying. On Monday, the pair accelerated its upward movement and the ADX largely reacted to it. Convergence has been formed on the MACD, and the moving averages have increased the angle of growth. These are all signs of the acceleration of the northern movement towards the second resistance level of 106.12.

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 105.18. In this case, the pair may go for a correction to 104.40.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2680
• Prev Close: 1.2637
• % chg. over the last day: -0.34%

The pair continued its rapid decline amid rising oil prices. All commodity currencies show the best dynamics and the Canadian dollar is no exception. On Monday, the instrument almost reached the January minimum and risks updating them, as prices on the oil market set a new annual record.

• Support levels: 1.2590, 1.2550
• Resistance levels: 1.2763, 1.2781

The main scenario is selling. The ADX and the MACD continue to show a significant reaction on the pair’s decline. Now the price is showing a tendency to a pullback, but a new wave of decline may follow, as the bearish momentum has been strong.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above 1.2682, the pair may resume growth to the resistance level of 1.2763.