by JustForex
The EUR/USD on Friday fell to the support level, but the disappointing data from the University of Michigan brought the pair back to weekly highs. Inflation expectations in the US are growing much faster, which puts pressure on the US dollar.
The main scenario for trading the EUR/USD is buying on a decline. The ADX has slightly reacted to the rise of the pair in the Asian session, but the oscillator is directed upwards. This indicates the likelihood of gradual growth. As long as the price is above the moving averages, long positions will be relevant.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to consolidate below the level of 1.2118, the pair may return to the area of 1.2081 – 1.2059.
The sterling continues to set its annual highs, gradually moving towards the round 1.4000. The market continues to ignore the negative data in the UK, but growth is accelerating due to the decline in the dollar. As a result, the pound remains the leader in the foreign exchange market, showing the largest gains against the dollar.
The main scenario for trading the GBP/USD is buying on a decline. The decline on Friday was interrupted during the American session. At the end of the day, a bullish engulfing pattern was formed on the daily candlestick. This indicates strong upward momentum. But the ADX has already entered the short-term overbought area, which increases the likelihood of a pullback to the moving averages in the 1.3830 area.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates below 1.3830, it may return to 1.3775.
The dollar-yen showed a slight increase on Friday. Despite the decline in the dollar index, the pair managed to close the day in positive territory amid rising bond yields and the stock market. The risky assets set a new record, which supported the growth of quotations.
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 104.95 – 104.40. Specifications have barely changed since Friday. There are slight signs of growth, but the move is likely to be slow. The ADX shows almost no reaction to price growth.
An alternative scenario assumes the price-fixing above 104.95. In this case, the pair may rise to 105.68. A breakеthrough of 104.40 could send the pair down to 103.56.
After a correctional pullback, the pair moved to a sharp decline. The oil market saw a surge in prices, as a result of which the black gold rose in price by about 2.5%. The Canadian dollar strengthened, and a bearish engulfing pattern was formed on the daily chart.
The main scenario is selling. The ADX and the MACD showed a significant reaction to the last wave of decline. Although the price has stopped near the 1.2666 support level, forming a local “double bottom” pattern, the probability of a breakdown and further decline remains.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above 1.2701, the pair may resume its growth to the resistance level of 1.2762.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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