The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.01.22

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2104
• Prev Close: 1.2162
• % chg. over the last day: +0.48%

At the end of Thursday, EUR/USD demonstrated the presence of bullish strength, but the pair is still holding the position of a chasing one among the G10 currencies. Growth in German Bonds yields indicates a possible continuation of the upward movement, but a full renewal of the northern trend is still in question.

• Support levels: 1.2077, 1.2059
• Resistance levels: 1.2222, 1.2283

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is buying. Northbound movement may be described as a slow one, but technical characteristics are indicative of a likely continuation. The ADX has reached a high point, which indicates the need for a pullback. The MACD is fixed in the positive zone, but no convergence has occurred, which proves the slow growth.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to fix below the level of 1.2077, the pair may move to a decline to 1.1799.

• – Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jan) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jan) at 12:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3650
• Prev Close: 1.3729
• % chg. over the last day: +0.58%

On Thursday, the sterling continued to dominate and renewed its own records of the year. The bulls were encouraged by positive expectations of UK government support for workspaces. But in the Asian session, there is a rapid decline, which calls further growth into question.

• Support levels: 1.3622, 1.3517
• Resistance levels: 1.3716, 1.3744

The main scenario in GBP/USD is being traded in a sideways range between 1.3716 and 1.3622. The potential for a southward movement on the ADX is indicated as an increasing one. The fast move sent the MACD to zero and the SMA50 was broken-through, which brings the continuation of the upward movement into question. The pair is likely to stop between the first support and resistance levels.

Alternative scenario: if the pair fixes below 1.3622, the pair is likely to return to 1.3517. A break-through at 1.3716 will indicate a renewed growth.

• – UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Services PMI (Jan) at 12:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 103.52
• Prev Close: 103.48
• % chg. over the last day: -0.03%

The USD/JPY was pretty close to the support level but it bounced back, almost forming a daily candle called “Doji”. This usually holds out the prospect of a reversal, but seeing how the pair reacts to the situation of the stock market, the growth remains highly questionable. It’s not yet possible to single out any stable direction in the pair, both on the lower and higher time frames.

• Support levels: 103.32, 102.89
• Resistance levels: 104.09, 104.40

The main scenario is trading in a range between 104.09 and 103.32. The ADX began to react to both directions, and the frequent change of priorities indicates the development of lateral dynamics. The MACD is near zero, and the price is between the moving averages. All signals are neutral.

The alternative scenario assumes the price-fixing above 104.09. In this case, the pair may return to 104.40 or higher. A break-through of 103.32 will indicate a continued decline.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2632
• Prev Close: 1.2633
• % chg. over the last day: -0.01%

On Thursday, oil prices retreated from their highs slightly and continued their decline in the Asian session on Friday. At the same time, the dollar index is correcting, which together caused a northern pullback in the currency pair. But it’s difficult to talk about reversal yet.

• Support levels: 1.2590, 1.2450
• Resistance levels: 1.2797, 1.2834, 1.2875

The main scenario is purchases. The pair is prone to a rollback and, possibly, the deep one so far. The ADX showed a high potential for an upward movement intraday. The MACD has turned over sharply and is in the positive zone. But for now, the price is fixed below SMA 100. For a more accurate buy signal, it’s advisable to wait for a pullback to SMA 50 and see a rebound or for a break-through and price fixation above SMA 100.

Alternative scenario: if the price can fix below 1.2590, the pair may resume its southward direction.