by JustForex
On Tuesday, EUR/USD managed to break through above the first resistance level, indicating a slowdown of the southern correction. All G10 currencies went up in price against the dollar, and the euro was no exception. The economic sentiment indicator and a large-scale cash infusion from the US government help the euro bulls to maintain a long-term northern trend.
The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is buying. The price fixed above the moving averages firmly. The ADX shows a significant increase in bullish potential, while the overbought zone is still far away. In this case, the price can reach 1.2222 without significant pullbacks.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to fix below the level of 1.2130, the pair may decline to 1.2059.
On Tuesday and Wednesday’s Asian session, the sterling followed the general market trend against the dollar. But the British currency seems weaker than the euro from a fundamental point of view. Gilts yield hasn’t changed much lately. At the same time, the difference against Treasuries remains well below the previous quarter. In this case, bulls should be careful.
The main scenario in GBP/USD is cautious buying on growth. The sterling is growing solely due to the fall of the dollar, which may eventually lead to unexpected turns. But the technical indicators are still strong. The ADX shows that the bullish potential is higher than in the euro. But here the price is already in the overbought area and a rollback to the moving averages is possible.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair fixes below 1.3602, it’s likely to return to 1.3532.
Tuesday turned out to be conflicted for the pair. The quotes are under pressure from both sides. On the one hand, the dollar went down across the entire spectrum of the market again. On the other hand, the stock market shows an appetite for risk, and this leads to a decrease in the price of the yen. As a result, the price is stuck in a narrow range again.
The main scenario is trading in a range between 104.20 and 103.53. The technical indicators have been rearranged once again. The ADX quickly changed direction and indicates a high potential of bearish strength. In this case, the rest of the indicators are in equilibrium.
An alternative scenario assumes the price-fixing below 103.53. In this case, a renewed bearish sentiment is possible. A break-through of 104.20 will indicate renewed growth.
On Tuesday, oil prices continued to rise, which brought additional pressure on the pair. All indicators, including fundamental ones, indicate a continuation of the fall. However, everything may change tonight, when the Bank of Canada will announce the results of the meeting and hold a press conference.
The main scenario is sales. So far, there is no apparent reason to consider purchases in pairs. The ADX continues to show the presence of bearish strength. A southern convergence is observed on the MACD. The overall result indicates that the bearish signal is quite strong and the price may retest the 1.2630 level.
Alternative scenario: if the price can fix above 1.2741, the pair may return to 1.2797.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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