Source: Economic Events 20 November 2020 – Admiral Markets Forex Calendar
Last week, Pfizer and BioNTech announced that they are on their way to a Covid-19 vaccine which is said to be effective in over 90% of the cases, while new vaccine news came last Monday.
This time it came from Moderna, announcing that its phase 3 study met statistical criteria with a vaccine efficacy of 94.5% (P < 0.0001), and even more interesting compared to the Pfizer/Biontech news, Moderna announced a longer shelf life for Its COVID-19 vaccine candidate at refrigerated temperatures.
But, while US yields spiked substantially higher despite falling short of a test of the 1% mark last week, this week, there was only a short spike higher in US yields, and the US dollar was quickly sold again.
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As we pointed out in our last analytical piece for Gold e.g., the subdued bullishness in US yields is surprising, and it can only mean one thing in our opinion: market participants are still convinced that we are far away from returning to “normal” from an economic standpoint. Thus, chances of a massive fiscal package to stabilize the US economy, and an ultra-dovish approach from the US central bank FED to finance that fresh US debt, is probably are still on the table.
That said, the short-term focus in the EUR/USD is clearly on the 1.1900 mark from a technical standpoint.
In fact, a dynamic break above levels the path up to the current yearly highs around 1.2000 and even higher, coming together with a bullish seasonal window in the EUR/USD which occurs in December, and has so since the mid-1980s.
Technically, the mode in the EUR/USD stays bullish as long as we trade above 1.1600, even though even a drop lower wouldn’t necessarily switch the mode to “ultra”-bearish, since the currency pair still finds solid support in the region around 1.1400/1500:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on EUR/USD Daily chart (between August 14, 2019, to November 19, 2020). Accessed: November 19, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
In 2015, the value of the EURUSD fell by 10.2%, in 2016 it fell by 3.2%, in 2017 it increased by 13.92%, 2018 it fell by 4.4%, 2019 it fell by 2.2%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 7.3%.
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