InvestMacro

Crude Oil Prices Continue to Be Under Pressure

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The commodity sector remains rather tense on Monday; Brent is trading at $102.75.

Global geopolitics is what investors are focused on right now. Any complications in this area muddy the water one way or another, and it’s bad news. Last weekend, the Kosovo situation escalated – a gas pipeline “Balkan Stream” is going through Serbia, which doesn’t recognise the independence of Kosovo. The pipeline delivers natural gas from “TurkStream” to Hungary.

Later this week, OPEC and OPECF+ will have meetings. The OPEC+ agreement is ending in August and the organisations are set to discuss options to increase oil production. First of all, it depends on Saudi Arabia, a country that still has the potential for oil extraction expansion. However, Saudis don’t seem to be interested in it.

The latest report from Baker Hughes showed that over the past week, the Oil Rig Count in the US gained 6 units, up to 605. In Canada, the indicator increased by 13 units, up to 137.

On the H4 chart, Brent is forming the third ascending wave with the target at 111.55 and may later correct down to 106.16. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the short-term target at 118.80. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 0 inside the histogram area. Both the line and the price chart may yet continue to move upwards.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after finishing the descending correctional structure at 106.16, Brent is consolidating above this level. Possibly, the asset may break the range to the upside and start another growth with the target at 111.55, or even extends this structure up to 118.70. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after breaking 20, its signal line is heading towards 50. Later, the line may break the latter level and continue growing to reach 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News

01 Aug

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 01.08.2022 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD continues testing the bearish channel’s upside border. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may re-test the cloud’s upside border at 1.0175 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.0405. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.0085. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.9990. To confirm a further uptrend, the price must break the bearish channel’s upside border and fix above 1.0275.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is rebounding from Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Kijun-Sen at 1740.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1820.00. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1700.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1655.00.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is growing inside the bullish channel. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 0.6960 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7150. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6805. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6710.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Aug

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast for August 2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, after reaching the short-term downside target at 0.9964, EURUSD has completed the ascending impulse along with the correction; right now, it is forming one more ascending structure towards 1.0360 and may later consolidate there. If the price breaks the range to the upside, the market may start another growth with the short-term target at 1.0616 or even extend this correctional wave up to 1.0764. After that, the instrument may resume trading within the downtrend to reach 0.9300.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On the daily chart, GBPUSD has finished the ascending impulse at 1.2222. Possibly, the pair may correct down to 1.2000 and then resume growing with the short-term target at 1.2444. The entire ascending structure is considered a correction of the previous decline towards 1.2665. After the correction is over, the instrument may start a new decline with the target at 1.1690, or even extend this wave down to 1.1500.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On the daily chart, having completed the descending wave at 132.22, USDJPY is expected to grow and test 135.08 from below. Later, the market may resume falling with the first target at 130.37 and then start another correction up to 135.10.

BRENT

As we can see in the daily chart, after finishing the first ascending impulse at 108.00 along with the correction down to 100.00, Brent is expected to form the third ascending wave towards 118.18. Later, the market may correct to test 108.00 from above and then continue growing with the first target at 122.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

On the daily chart, having completed the first ascending impulse along with the correction, Gold is forming one more ascending wave with the first target at 1799.33. After that, the instrument may correct down to 1740.00, and then resume growing to reach 1855.00, or even extend this structure up to 1888.30.

S&P 500

On the daily chart, the S&P index is still correcting up 4163.6 and may later start a new decline towards 3900.0. After that, the instrument may complete this ascending wave by reaching 4208.0, and then resume trading downwards with the target at 3500.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Aug

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.08.01

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0197
Prev Close: 1.0225
% chg. over the last day: +0.27%

Inflation in the Eurozone broke another record and rose to 8.9% in July (8.6% in June). The energy price boom continues, and the geopolitical factors behind it show no signs of abating. The Overall Energy Index increased to 39.7% y/y as gas prices continue to rise and their carryover to consumer prices increases. Along with energy, food has become a very large contributor to inflation as food prices have already increased to 9.8% y/y. Eurozone GDP showed growth of +0.7%, which came as a surprise to analysts. Spain, France, and Italy showed the most considerable GDP growth. Germany’s GDP was unchanged from January-March. Germany was one of the countries hit hardest by high energy prices and problems in global supply chains.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0112, 1.0035, 1.0000
Resistance levels: 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is still forming a wide volatile balance, and buyer pressure prevails now. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0112. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0284, but only after additional confirmation and only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0112 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.08.01:

– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
– French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2165
Prev Close: 1.2174
% chg. over the last day: +0.07%

The Bank of England intends to accelerate its fight against inflation. The Bank of England will hold its monetary policy and interest rate meetings this week, where it is expected (70% probability) to raise the rate by another 0.5%. This move will mark the UK’s most significant interest rate hike in 27 years. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey suggested at a previous speech that this hike would not be the last, saying that policymakers are willing to act “decisively” if necessary to combat inflation. It should not be forgotten that there is a struggle for the Prime minister’s chair in Britain. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has promised tax cuts if she wins the race for the leadership of the ruling Conservative Party. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak says this will increase inflation, forcing interest rates to go even higher.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2150, 1.2114, 1.2063, 1.1907, 1.1803
Resistance levels: 1.2191, 1.2238, 1.2294

From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is bullish. But sellers’ pressure is increasing again. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone but shows signs of divergence already in several time frames. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday time frames from the support level 1.2150 or 1.2114, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2191, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2006 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.08.01:

– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 134.23
Prev Close: 133.21
% chg. over the last day: -0.76%

Japan included currency response measures as items to consider in its fiscal year 2023 budget, which is due later this year, budget guidance showed Friday, warning investors against selling the yen. Currencies are rarely mentioned in the annual budget guidance, so the inclusion underscores policymakers’ concerns about the rapid sell-off in the yen, which has raised living costs and hurt the terms of trade underscored by the trade deficit.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 131.67, 130.99
Resistance levels: 133.17, 134.00, 135.10, 136.03, 137.11

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. In the last trading sessions, the Japanese yen is getting stronger. The MACD indicator has become negative, and the sellers’ pressure is still there, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 131.67, but with additional confirmation. Resistance levels of 133.17 or 134.00 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 136.03, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.08.01:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2806
Prev Close: 1.2804
% chg. over the last day: -0.02%

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was unchanged in May after growing 0.3% in April. Growth in service-producing industries (+0.4%) was offset by a decline in goods-producing industries (-1.0%). Canada’s manufacturing sector contracted by 1.7% in May after seven months of growth. Output rose in the construction, manufacturing, accommodation, and catering sectors. Declines were recorded in mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, financial and insurance, and professional scientific and technical services sectors.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2781
Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2923, 1.3006, 1.3085, 1.3154

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bearish. Currently, the price is forming a wide balance and trading on the lower border of the descending channel. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is a divergence, which indicates that it is harder for the price to move lower. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell deals from the resistance level of 1.2880, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2781 or from the lower border of the channel, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the 1.3006 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Aug

Trade Of The Week: Will BoE “Go Hard Or Go Home” On Rates

By ForexTime

Take cover! Central banks across the globe have pulled out their big guns and heavy monetary artillery in the face of soaring inflation.

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the second straight month. In July, the Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked rates by a whooping 100 basis points! Even the European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets with a 50-basis point hike – taking its policy rate out of negative territory in one clean move.

This week, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to join the heavy hitters – raising rates by 50 basis points after hiking rates by 0.25% five consecutive times since December 2021. If this was a boxing ring, the short jobs against inflation have failed so the central bank is switching to haymakers and uppercuts for the knockout blow! The key question is whether the BoE will embrace the aggression or remain cautious towards rates?

Before we discuss what to expect from the BoE this week, let’s take a quick peek at the GBPUSD.

Things are looking interesting for the currency pair on the weekly charts as prices breakout from the bearish channel. A weaker dollar remains a key factor behind the Pounds recent rebound. If BoE hawks “go hard” on Thursday, this could propel the currency pair higher.

The low down…

Looking beyond the sunny weather and random bbq’s, a thunderstorm is brewing.

The outlook for the UK economy remains gloomy due to a combination of negative themes.

Inflation is through the roof with consumer prices hitting 9.4% in June – another new 40 year high thanks to soaring food and energy prices. Rising prices are squeezing millions of households, impacting consumption which remains a key engine of economic growth. The latest PMIs are not looking too pretty with manufacturing slumping to a 25-month low in July. Let’s not forget about political uncertainty and post-Brexit related drama’s adding to the already toxic cocktail. In a nutshell, economic conditions remain unfavourable with fears mounting over the UK falling into a recession.

Back in June, the central bank signalled that it would ‘act forcefully’ if the inflation menace refused to stand down. Traders are currently pricing in a 79% probability of a 50-basis point rate hike this month.

The week ahead…

The main risk event for Sterling will be the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday.

Given how markets expect the bank to move ahead with its biggest rate increase in 27 years, much attention will be directed towards the updated quarterly economic review and Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference. These could offer some clues into the central banks thinking on inflation and UK economic outlook. More details are also expected to be released on the central banks strategy to reducing its £866 billion quantitative-easing portfolio.

Possible outcomes to BoE meeting

BoE hikes rates by 50-basis points. This decision could send the pound higher but gains may be capped if the central bank pulls a “one and done” by striking a cautious tone. This could feed expectations around no more aggressive hikes in 2022.
BoE hike rates by 50-basis points and sings a hawkish tone – fuelling speculation around more aggressive hikes down the road. Sterling rallies.
BoE hikes rates by 25-basis points. Concerns about the economic outlook keep hawks at bay with the central bank postponing aggressive hikes till September or Q4. Pound tumbles on this decision.

GBPUSD to break above 1.2350?

The GBPUSD turned bullish on the daily charts after prices conquered the 1.2060 lower high. Bulls are clearly in the vicinity with the next key point of interest at 1.2350. There have been fresh consistent highs and lows while the MACD in the process of cross above zero. A strong breakout and daily close above 1.2350 could signal a move towards 1.2500 and 1.2650, respectively. Should 1.2350 prove to be a tough nut to crack, prices may decline back towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average and 1.2060, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

01 Aug

China vs. Taiwan, Serbia vs. Kosovo – new military conflicts are already around the corner

By JustForex

The US Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, closely monitored by the Fed, is at its highest since January 1982. The PCE increased to 6.8% in June. The core PCE (which excludes food and fuel prices) was up 4.8% from a year ago and up 0.1% from May. The Employment Cost Index, another figure that Fed policymakers keep a close eye on, rose by 1.3% in the second quarter. The Index added 5.1% in 12 months, a record for a series of data tracked since 2002. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates another 0.5% in September, according to the FedWatch CME Group tracker. However, the probability of a larger three-quarter-point hike rose to 38% Friday morning.

As the stock market closed Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.97% (+2.80% for the week, +6.73% for the month ), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.42% (+4.15% for the week, +9.11% for the month). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.88% on Friday (+4.67% for the week, +12.35% for the month).

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. German DAX (DE30) added 1.52% (weekly result +2.25%, monthly result +5.24%), French CAC 40 (FR40) grew by 1.72% (weekly result +4.03%, monthly result +8.72%), Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.88% (+1.69% for the week, -0.24% for the month), British FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 1.06% (+2.02% for the week, +3.55% for the month).

Inflation in the Eurozone broke another record and rose to 8.9% in July (8.6% in June). The energy price boom continues, and the geopolitical factors behind it show no signs of abating. Analysts expect gas supplies from Russia to remain very limited as winter approaches, putting upward pressure on energy prices. In Germany, the government recently decided to impose an energy tax on consumers starting in October. This means that inflation in Germany could rise above 10%.

Eurozone GDP growth of 0.7% QoQ was unexpectedly strong. Experts had predicted a 0.5% growth, and the consensus was even more pessimistic. The most substantial increase was in Spain (+1.1%), where GDP levels are still below pre-pandemic levels. Analysts expect Spain to benefit from a rebound in foreign tourism this summer and show positive growth numbers in the coming quarters, even if very high inflation hurts households in Spain more than in many other Eurozone countries. Growth was also strong in France (+0.5%) and Italy (+1.0%). Data from France showed that while consumption remained weak, fixed investment and exports supported growth. In Germany, GDP was unchanged from January-March. Germany was one of the countries hit hardest by high energy prices and problems in global supply chains, so the weak growth figures were not a surprise.

The media are reporting on armed clashes on the Serbian-Kosovo border. The Serbian army is on high alert, and the Serbian presidential party is already hinting at “denazification.” Serbia is an ally of Russia, and Kosovo seeks EU and NATO membership. Serbia is behaving very much like Russia before the Russians attacked Ukraine.

Asian markets traded higher last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.38% for the week (+7.19% for the month), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.75% last week (-7.67% for the month), and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 2.26% for the week (monthly result +6.20%).

The situation between Taiwan and China is escalating. Under the guise of exercises, China is redeploying military equipment in the province of Fujian, which is located only 180 kilometers from Taiwan. The transfer of military equipment began just after a Thursday conversation between the US president and China. US Speaker Pelosi’s planned visit to Taiwan provoked an extremely negative reaction from China, which threatened the US with unpredictable consequences, including that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army would shoot down the US speaker’s plane.

The Japanese government will not impose a cap on the defense budget request for the next fiscal year, stressing its determination to increase spending to counter China’s military assertiveness. The government will also allocate about 4.4 trillion yen ($33.12 billion) to Kishida’s “new capitalism” program, which aims to invest in green and digital transformation areas.

After more than two years, New Zealand is fully opening its borders and welcoming all international travelers. According to the New Zealand Ministry of Health, travelers need a rapid antigen test on the day of arrival and a second test on the fifth or sixth day of their trip. Masks are not required outdoors, but they are required indoors.

In the commodities market, natural gas (+27.52%) and palladium (+9.09%) futures showed the biggest gains in July. Gasoline futures (-17.24%), wheat (-12.72%), lumber (-10.06%), Brent oil (-10.55%), WTI oil (-10.46%), corn (-6.85%), sugar (-5.13%), copper (-4.92%), and coffee (-4.69%) showed the biggest drops in July.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,130.29 +57.86 (+1.42%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,845.13 +315.50 (+0.97%)

DAX (DE40) 13,484.05 +201.94 (+1.52%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,423.43 +78.18 (+1.06%)

USD Index 105.83 −0.52 (−0.49%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
– French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

01 Aug

Chart Spotlight: Tellurian Inc. (TELL)

By Ino.com

Natural gas prices are exploding.

For one, Russia said it would cut natural gas shipments to Europe.

In fact, as noted by Barron’s, “Russian company Gazprom said on Monday that it will cut natural gas shipments from the key Nord Stream pipeline to Germany starting this week. The pipeline’s exports will be cut to 20% of capacity, down from 40%, because of a sanctions-related issue with turbines serving the pipeline.”

Two, there are drought conditions in the U.S., and a heat wave forcing millions to turn up their air conditioners to full blast.

Three, according to EQT CEO Toby Rice, as quoted by Barron’s, “In the United States, we’ve got the natural gas here, we’ll be fine. But you think about our allies in Europe, and the tremendous power and influence that Russia has on these countries. Clearly, we need to take away the gun, and provide the energy to our allies around the world.”

All could create a big opportunity for natural gas stocks, like Tellurian (TELL).

Tellurian – a $2.1 billion company – is “building a low-cost, global natural gas business, profitably delivering natural gas to customers worldwide.”

Better, the company could benefit from a substantial shortage of natural gas.

In fact, according to its latest investor deck, geopolitics and energy security providing a step change in global LNG demand. Tellurian notes there’s (1) underinvestment in energy and post-CV structural growth have collided with a geopolitical crisis; (2) A need to replace 20 Bcf/d of Russian gas to Europe, equivalent to ~35% of the world’s LNG market; (3) Natural gas shortage expected to lead to catastrophic consequences.

Technically, according to MarketClub, shares of TELL are slightly overbought. The MarketClub Smart Scan also gives the stock a score of +60, which tells us at the moment, the stock is struggling to move in a solid trend.

However, with natural gas prices showing no signs of cooling off, I’d like to see the stock run from a current price of $3.68 to $5, near-term.

The MarketClub Trade Triangles are also mostly green.

While it’s telling us that the longer-term trend has been down over the last month, the intermediate trend has been strong since mid-July. In addition, the short-term trend, according to Market Club, has been up since mid-July as well.

Source: MarketClub

Ian Cooper
INO.com Contributor

The above analysis of Tellurian Inc. (TELL) was provided by financial writer Ian Cooper. Ian Cooper is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Ian Cooper expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Chart Spotlight: Tellurian Inc. (TELL)

Energy Financial News

30 Jul

Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 4-week high, CAD bets rise

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were mostly higher overall this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian dollar (9,102 contracts) with the British pound sterling (3,260 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,466 contracts), Brazilian real (1,237 contracts), Euro (1,161 contracts), Mexican peso (862 contracts) and Bitcoin (385 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Australian dollar (-4,237 contracts) with the Japanese yen (-2,256 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-515 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-387 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Notes:

Highlighting the forex markets COT data this week was the continued strength of the US Dollar Index. The speculative position for the US Dollar Index gained again this week for a second straight week and after falling in the previous three weeks. These gains bring the overall net bullish position back over the +40,000 contract level for the first time since June 28th and for the fourth time in the past seven weeks. The Dollar Index positioning has been super-strong much like the Dollar Index price that has been trading near its highest levels in approximately twenty years. The Dollar Index speculator positions have now been above the +30,000 contract level for fifteen straight weeks and has been in a bullish standing for fifty-six weeks and counting.

Canadian dollar positions gained this week for a second straight week and the net position hit a seven-week high. Canadian dollar speculator positions have, more or less, been fluctuating for almost a year and recently had a 5-week spell of bearish levels from May to June before becoming bullish again in late-June and July. The CAD speculator position has been in a small bullish level for the past seven weeks and is now at +15,769 contracts.

Euro bets rebounded a bit this week by just over +1,100 contracts and halted a three-week streak of declines. The Euro speculator position has been sharply down-trending over the past eight weeks and has fallen by a total of -93,856 contracts since June 7th. This drop in Euro bets reversed a +52,272 net contract level from May 31st to a total of -41,584 net contract level this week. The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar (EURUSD) remains very close to parity at just over 1.200 currently after edging out a couple of weekly gains in forex market trading.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-26-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	60,456	90	40,535	93	-43,313	7	2,778	47
EUR	694,099	80	-41,584	22	18,656	81	22,928	12
GBP	225,889	55	-53,990	35	70,959	72	-16,969	20
JPY	229,219	75	-61,481	31	73,773	72	-12,292	28
CHF	44,081	29	-11,299	28	20,610	76	-9,311	26
CAD	144,182	26	15,769	57	-22,197	50	6,428	43
AUD	156,473	50	-47,385	41	50,601	57	-3,216	45
NZD	46,471	37	-4,186	64	7,608	42	-3,422	12
MXN	195,025	47	-29,898	15	26,859	84	3,039	56
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	41,645	29	11,712	62	-12,610	39	898	75
Bitcoin	14,957	87	-121	78	-118	0	239	18

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (92.5 percent) continues to lead the strength scores and rose a bit this week as speculator net position increased. The Dollar Index is in a bullish extreme level at over 90 percent compared to its three-year range. Bitcoin (78.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores followed by the New Zealand Dollar (64.2 percent) and then the Brazil Real (61.9 percent). On the downside, the Mexican Peso (14.6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent). The EuroFX (22.2 percent), Swiss Franc (27.9 percent) and the Japanese Yen (31.0 percent) round out the next lowest scores this week.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (92.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (90.1 percent)
EuroFX (22.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (21.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (32.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (31.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (32.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (27.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (28.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (46.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (40.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (44.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (64.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (65.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.2 percent)
Brazil Real (61.9 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (60.7 percent)
Bitcoin (78.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (71.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound Sterling (8.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (5.1 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (4.4 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Brazilian Real (-34.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Bitcoin (-21.5 percent) followed by the Swiss Franc (-11.4 percent) and the EuroFX (-10.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.9 percent)
EuroFX (-10.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-28.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (8.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (9.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (5.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (20.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-11.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-8.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-3.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (27.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-1.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-27.1 percent)
Brazil Real (-34.9 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-35.6 percent)
Bitcoin (-21.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-18.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.9	4.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	75.8	4.1
– Net Position:	40,535	-43,313	2,778
– Gross Longs:	51,337	2,492	5,227
– Gross Shorts:	10,802	45,805	2,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	7.0	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	7.0	-5.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	56.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	53.9	8.7
– Net Position:	-41,584	18,656	22,928
– Gross Longs:	198,041	393,062	83,007
– Gross Shorts:	239,625	374,406	60,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	81.3	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	13.4	-19.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -53,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	74.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	43.1	15.3
– Net Position:	-53,990	70,959	-16,969
– Gross Longs:	34,606	168,266	17,551
– Gross Shorts:	88,596	97,307	34,520
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	71.6	20.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-6.0	-3.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -61,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	68.9	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	36.7	15.7
– Net Position:	-61,481	73,773	-12,292
– Gross Longs:	43,812	157,963	23,671
– Gross Shorts:	105,293	84,190	35,963
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	71.6	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-6.2	8.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	61.7	19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	14.9	40.8
– Net Position:	-11,299	20,610	-9,311
– Gross Longs:	8,138	27,195	8,653
– Gross Shorts:	19,437	6,585	17,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	76.3	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	3.9	6.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	42.9	23.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	58.3	19.0
– Net Position:	15,769	-22,197	6,428
– Gross Longs:	46,414	61,869	33,790
– Gross Shorts:	30,645	84,066	27,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	50.2	43.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	6.7	-1.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -47,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	65.4	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.5	33.1	14.4
– Net Position:	-47,385	50,601	-3,216
– Gross Longs:	30,024	102,398	19,361
– Gross Shorts:	77,409	51,797	22,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	56.6	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	4.4	-4.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	57.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	40.6	12.2
– Net Position:	-4,186	7,608	-3,422
– Gross Longs:	17,311	26,498	2,249
– Gross Shorts:	21,497	18,890	5,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	42.1	12.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-3.3	-5.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -29,898 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	46.6	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.9	32.9	1.4
– Net Position:	-29,898	26,859	3,039
– Gross Longs:	96,752	90,972	5,815
– Gross Shorts:	126,650	64,113	2,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.6	84.0	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	1.5	-0.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.5	41.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	71.3	5.8
– Net Position:	11,712	-12,610	898
– Gross Longs:	20,614	17,103	3,296
– Gross Shorts:	8,902	29,713	2,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	39.0	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.9	35.0	-4.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.4	3.0	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.2	3.8	6.2
– Net Position:	-121	-118	239
– Gross Longs:	9,778	449	1,160
– Gross Shorts:	9,899	567	921
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	50.9	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.5	48.1	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

30 Jul

Precious Metals Speculator bets lower as Silver bets go bearish for 1st time since 2019

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: Week 30

COT precious metals speculator bets were lower again this week as just one out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

The only precious metals market to see higher speculator bets this week was Palladium with a gain of 343 contracts.

The metals leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Silver (-5,860 contracts) and Copper (-2,726 contracts) with Gold (-2,265 contracts) and Platinum (-186 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the metals COT data this week was the continued drop in speculator bets for the Silver contracts. Silver speculative bets have now fallen for seven consecutive weeks (a total decline of -21,904 contracts over that period) and for a whopping thirteen out of the past fourteen weeks (a total decline of -50,929 contracts over 14 weeks). This speculator sentiment weakness has now brought the overall net position into bearish territory (-4,500 contracts this week) for the first time since June 4th of 2019, a span of 164 weeks. The Silver position has only seen approximately 30 weeks in bearish territory over the past ten years with a seventeen-week streak of bearish positions in 2018 dominating this data. These negative net positions for Silver are rare and usually only persist for a short time so it will be interesting to see if this is some type of bottom for Silver speculators or if this will continue. The Silver futures price did get a boost this week and rose back over the $20 level ($18.54 weekly open vs $20.19 close) after hitting two-year lows recently just above the $18.00 price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-26-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,597,451	2	259,260	0	-283,489	100	24,229	49
Gold	487,515	10	92,690	0	-108,422	100	15,732	0
Silver	147,784	14	-4,500	0	-2,653	100	7,153	4
Copper	183,958	15	-26,562	23	26,839	78	-277	24
Palladium	7,124	4	-3,408	4	3,894	97	-486	16
Platinum	73,423	45	-4,468	2	-171	98	4,639	27
Natural Gas	976,126	4	-118,290	43	83,028	57	35,262	64
Brent	177,837	22	-41,482	42	40,557	61	925	22
Heating Oil	269,127	23	18,684	70	-33,531	36	14,847	50
Soybeans	583,850	0	85,241	40	-57,573	66	-27,668	24
Corn	1,320,768	2	186,528	54	-138,899	52	-47,629	16
Coffee	199,536	5	28,641	64	-28,867	43	226	2
Sugar	722,469	4	64,103	50	-65,756	56	1,653	10
Wheat	301,674	6	25	19	8,068	71	-8,093	68

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) continue to illustrate how out of favor the metals markets have been and continue to be for speculators. Copper (23.2 percent) leads the metals market in strength scores and is just out of a bearish extreme reading (below 20 percent) and fell a few points from last week. On the downside, Gold (0.0 percent) and Silver (0.0 percent) continue to make new 3-year low levels and are followed by Platinum (2.0 percent) and Palladium (3.7 percent). All four of these markets are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent) and have been for multiple weeks.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (0.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.9 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (7.1 percent)
Copper (23.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (25.2 percent)
Platinum (2.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (2.2 percent)
Palladium (3.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (3.7 percent) had the only positive six-weeks trends for metals this week. Gold (-23.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by Silver (-22.5 percent) with Copper (-9.2 percent) and Platinum (-9.1 percent) coming in next with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-23.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-30.8 percent)
Silver (-22.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-19.5 percent)
Copper (-9.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-14.5 percent)
Platinum (-9.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-13.9 percent)
Palladium (3.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-1.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 92,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	29.1	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	51.4	5.6
– Net Position:	92,690	-108,422	15,732
– Gross Longs:	241,661	142,007	42,821
– Gross Shorts:	148,971	250,429	27,089
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	25.3	-25.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	42.0	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	43.8	10.3
– Net Position:	-4,500	-2,653	7,153
– Gross Longs:	54,671	62,080	22,309
– Gross Shorts:	59,171	64,733	15,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	3.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.5	19.8	-4.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	47.4	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.9	32.8	7.9
– Net Position:	-26,562	26,839	-277
– Gross Longs:	52,377	87,146	14,193
– Gross Shorts:	78,939	60,307	14,470
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	77.9	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	11.4	-21.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,282 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.3	38.4	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.3	38.7	5.1
– Net Position:	-4,468	-171	4,639
– Gross Longs:	31,027	28,217	8,349
– Gross Shorts:	35,495	28,388	3,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.0	98.2	26.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	8.6	0.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	70.4	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.0	15.7	19.4
– Net Position:	-3,408	3,894	-486
– Gross Longs:	724	5,012	898
– Gross Shorts:	4,132	1,118	1,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.7	96.6	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-2.6	-10.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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30 Jul

COT Week 30 Charts: Bonds Speculators bets fall this week led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other six markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds Futures (33,590 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (4,781 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 10-Year Bond (-91,156 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-57,158 contracts) with the Eurodollar (-40,034 contracts), the 2-Year Bond (-26,811 contracts), the Long US Bond (-4,543 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-4,479 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-26-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,398,092	11	-2,683,939	4	2,957,409	94	-273,470	44
FedFunds	1,885,799	71	147,168	58	-139,549	43	-7,619	40
2-Year	2,018,244	10	-89,864	64	160,604	55	-70,740	19
Long T-Bond	1,183,499	42	-46,645	69	28,896	21	17,749	67
10-Year	3,504,780	30	-199,860	42	266,234	54	-66,374	64
5-Year	3,988,929	51	-315,173	28	449,869	68	-134,696	44

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (69.4 percent) continues to lead the strength scores although it has been cooling off over the past weeks. The 2-Year Bond (64.1 percent) and the Fed Funds (57.8 percent) come in as the next highest bonds markets in strength scores this week with both over 50 percent (or the midway point of their 3-year range). On the downside, the Eurodollar (3.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently – at an extreme bearish position and near the bottom of its three-year range. The Ultra 10-Year Bond is the next lowest at 20.8 percent followed by the 5-Year Bond (27.9 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (57.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (53.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (64.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (69.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (27.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (37.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (55.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (20.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (69.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (70.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (42.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (44.1 percent)
Eurodollar (3.5 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (4.3 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 2-Year Bond (14.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bond (13.1 percent), the Fed Funds (4.5 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (0.9 percent) round out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. The 5-Year Bond (-21.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Eurodollar (-15.3 percent) followed by the US Treasury Bond (-5.6 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (4.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (7.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (21.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-21.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (13.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (10.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-5.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-3.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.6 percent)
Eurodollar (-15.3 percent) vs Eurodollar (0.0 percent)

Individual Markets

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,683,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -40,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,643,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	71.5	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	40.1	7.3
– Net Position:	-2,683,939	2,957,409	-273,470
– Gross Longs:	397,570	6,724,178	413,933
– Gross Shorts:	3,081,509	3,766,769	687,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.5	93.9	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	13.1	20.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 147,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 33,590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,578 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	71.4	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	78.8	2.1
– Net Position:	147,168	-139,549	-7,619
– Gross Longs:	290,967	1,346,037	32,709
– Gross Shorts:	143,799	1,485,586	40,328
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	42.9	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-2.9	-31.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -89,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -26,811 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,053 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	80.0	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	72.0	10.3
– Net Position:	-89,864	160,604	-70,740
– Gross Longs:	239,980	1,613,664	137,474
– Gross Shorts:	329,844	1,453,060	208,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	55.0	19.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-14.8	-1.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -315,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -57,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -258,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	83.9	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	72.7	10.5
– Net Position:	-315,173	449,869	-134,696
– Gross Longs:	314,696	3,348,396	283,150
– Gross Shorts:	629,869	2,898,527	417,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	68.2	44.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.8	9.4	12.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -199,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -91,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,704 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	80.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	72.5	11.9
– Net Position:	-199,860	266,234	-66,374
– Gross Longs:	266,814	2,805,832	351,590
– Gross Shorts:	466,674	2,539,598	417,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	53.5	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-12.8	24.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -30,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,707 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	83.0	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	70.0	21.6
– Net Position:	-30,926	151,176	-120,250
– Gross Longs:	59,468	967,242	131,774
– Gross Shorts:	90,394	816,066	252,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	79.1	47.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-16.1	8.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -46,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	77.9	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	75.5	12.9
– Net Position:	-46,645	28,896	17,749
– Gross Longs:	83,344	922,508	169,862
– Gross Shorts:	129,989	893,612	152,113
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.4	20.9	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	-5.3	25.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -350,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -345,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.7	84.4	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	61.7	8.0
– Net Position:	-350,261	301,568	48,693
– Gross Longs:	49,191	1,120,969	154,740
– Gross Shorts:	399,452	819,401	106,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	62.5	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	-4.8	13.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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