Trade Of The Week: Are Gold Bulls Back In Town?

By ForexTime 

After securing its best week since mid-January, could gold prices be gearing up for more upside?

The precious metal staged a solid rebound last week, climbing 2.5% due to dollar weakness and positive economic data from China. A pullback in Treasury yields last Friday fuelled upside gains, pushing prices closer to the 50-day Simple Moving Average around $1870. Price action suggests that bulls could be back in action after gold received a thorough beating last month. However, the key question is whether the current momentum will result in a bullish reversal or a dead cat bounce.

Revisiting our 2023 outlook, we discussed how gold could be one of the biggest winners this year based on expectations around the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes down the line. In February, these expectations were tempered by robust jobs data and sticky inflation figures which fuelled fears about rates staying higher for longer. Nevertheless, sentiment towards gold may experience a positive shift this month if US economic data disappoints and inflation shows signs of cooling.

Taking a quick looking at the technical picture, gold turned bullish on the daily charts after breaking above the $1845 lower high. A strong daily close above the 50-day SMA could encourage an incline towards $1880 and $1900, respectively.

Big week for gold as Powell & NFP eyed

Watch this space as the events this week could either fuel gold’s upside momentum or end the party for bulls. All eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Testimony and US jobs data which have the potential to inject the precious metal with explosive levels of volatility.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell provides his semi-annual report to the Senate Banking Committee. Any hints or signals on the Fed potentially straying away from 25bp hikes in future meetings will most likely influence markets. Powell will address the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and is expected to reiterate a similar message. If Powell strikes a hawkish tone during Testimony, this could rekindle dollar strength and rate hike bets – ultimately dragging gold prices lower. Alternatively, a cautiously sounding Powell may cool rate hike bets, providing even more room for gold bulls to fight back.

It’s all about the US jobs report on Friday which could determine whether the dollar’s renewed strength is temporary or lasting. After the breathtaking 517,000 reading back in January, around 215,000 is projected for February. Another healthy jobs report may reinforce expectations around the Federal Reserve holding rates higher for longer. On the other hand, if the NFP report fails to meet expectations – the dollar is likely to tumble as investors pare back their rate hike bets.

Other factors influencing gold

It will be wise to keep an eye on the ADP’s monthly read and initial jobless claims which could act as an appetiser before the main course. On the geopolitical front, developments concerning Sino-US relations may add more spice and flavour to the precious metal – especially if investors become edgy. While escalating tensions could fuel risk aversion sweetening appetite for safe-haven assets, this also includes the dollar. As we have identified earlier, dollar strength tends to make things difficult for gold bulls.

Gold to see rebound or dead cat bounce?

Gold turned bullish on the daily charts after prices blasted above $1845 lower high. The precious metal trades above the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Average with bulls eyeing the 50-day SMA at $1870. A strong breakout and daily close above this level could encourage an incline toward $1880 and potentially beyond the psychological $1900 resistance level. On the other hand, if bulls are capped below the 50-day SMA or lose momentum around $1880 – this could trigger a move lower with $1825 and $1800 acting as key levels of interest. Ultimately, the pending key US economic reports and Powell’s testimony will most likely shape the outlook for gold this month.


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Tricky issue of client suitability for ESG investments

By George Prior

As global investors become increasingly focused on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investments, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations is partnering with a pioneering profiling tool to ensure clients’ personal suitability for this kind of investment.

deVere Group says its partnership with EnlightenESG will enable it to better understand clients’ attitudes to ESG investing and to ensure greater transparency around the intersection of suitability and sustainability.

James Green, deVere Group’s Investment Director, says: “Clients are increasingly seeking to align their investments with their values, and support companies that are making a positive impact on society and the environment.

“ESG investing allows clients to invest in entities that are helping the world transition to a fairer, more diverse and sustainable future, while also generating the appropriate financial returns.

He continues: “ESG investing can be a suitable investment strategy for many investors, but it may not be appropriate for all.

“Whether or not ESG-orientated investments are suitable for a particular client will depend not only on their individual investment goals, risk tolerance, and financial situation, but also on their core values.

“And with something so emotive and fundamental to all our lives, it can be easy to get caught up in the debate or drowned in a tidal wave of opinions and, as consequence, lose sight of what sustainability really means to our clients.”

EnlightenESG, a groundbreaking profiling tool, addresses this issue by personalizing the sustainable investment requirements that help investors and their advisors make informed sustainability decisions in the context of suitability.

“EnlightenESG will help us to engage our clients and to truly understand their sustainable preferences and in time ultimately better match their ESG views to their investment goals,” explains James Green.

Thanks to deVere Group’s resources, scale and global presence, it hopes to become a key actor in terms of education around sustainable investing.

Before using the tool with clients, deVere trialled it in-house to engage with the technology themselves to understand the process, the data it provides, and what it could potentially teach the firm on how it could help its global client base.

As part of onboarding EnlightenESG into the firm’s relationships with clients, deVere Western Europe profiled over 75 employees across its European offices and engaged with EnlightenESG to help interpret and understand the results.

The Group analysed individuals’ attitudes toward sustainability and ESG as well as how the Group scored as whole and in the context of the entire EnlightenESG ecosystem.

“We noted our staff are more focused on ESG than the EnlightenESG index average, the data also highlighted our understanding of the long-term nature of ESG investing,” comments the deVere Group Investment Director.

“As is often the case with new and evolving investment opportunities, the market can over-estimate the short term and underestimate the long-term opportunities.  Our EnlightenESG results demonstrate that we have a good understanding and education around these critical points.”

Of the partnership with deVere Group, Simon Lowans Chief Marketing Officer at EnlightenESG says: “We are thrilled with the modern and forward-looking approach that the team at deVere are taking towards sustainability.

“EnlightenESG technology not only documents and allows for a repeatable and consistent process, the technology also loves to learn!  It is the continuous learning within the technology that helps frame and understand the societal norm across the ESG spectrum.

“The continued growth in our EnlightenESG user base is helping the profiler, and as a result our users, to better understand how clients score relative to the universe average or societal norm.   We have always said EnlightenESG can only be built for individuals if the data itself is powered by individuals.”

The EnlightenESG partnership underscores deVere’s ongoing commitment to sustainable investing.

Ahead of COP27, the international climate summit, last November, deVere Group CEO Nigel Green told media:  “Climate change is the greatest risk multiplier to our planet, to our communities, and to our way of life.

“Joined-up planning followed by urgent action is essential.  But this will not only take political and social will. It will take trillions of dollars.

“There needs to be unprecedented levels of cooperation between financial advisories, insurance firms, banks, wealth and asset managers, investment companies, fintech groups, banks, auditors, amongst others, to help unlock and mobilise the trillions of dollars of private finance that is urgently required.”

deVere Group is also one of 18 founding signatories of the UN-backed Net Zero initiative, the international alliance of powerhouse global finance companies that will help accelerate the transition to a net zero financial system.

James Green concludes: “EnlightenESG will become an invaluable tool to determine a client’s sustainability values and helps advisors map clients to a sustainable investment, where appropriate.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

 

Communications Co. To Acquire ‘Perfect Fit’

Source: Streetwise Reports  (3/2/23)

Printing and marketing services company Data Communications Management Corp. has entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire R.R. Donnelley & Sons’ Canadian operations.

Printing and marketing services company Data Communications Management Corp. (DCM:TSX; DCMDF:OTCQX) has entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire R.R. Donnelley & Sons’ Canadian operations for CA$123 million, the company said.

R.R. Donnelly Canada provides print and related services to thousands of customers across the country, had a revenue of about CA$250 million in 2022, and has 1,000 employees.

The companies are “a perfect fit,” DCM President and Chief Executive Officer Richard Kellam said after the announcement.

The transaction “combines two companies with complementary operating models and best-in-class products, (and) very strong customer relationships,” he said. “It’s also very complementary to some of the digital-first technology capabilities we’ve built here at DCM, and the opportunity to expand those into RRD’s clients.

Analyst Chris Thompson of eResearch maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a target of CA$4.50 even before the announcement based on third-quarter 2022 results that showed revenue up 11.4% YoY from 2021.

There (are) many meaningful benefits for our clients and for our customers, being bigger and better together and obviously, attractive financial benefits and value creation opportunities for DCM.”

Analyst Chris Thompson of eResearch maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a target of CA$4.50 even before the announcement based on third-quarter 2022 results that showed revenue up 11.4% YoY from 2021.

Preliminary results for 2022 show the company’s revenues up 15% to 16.5% over 2021. The company is expected to release the final 2022 results later this month.

“As DCM executes its ‘digital first’ strategy, we expect revenue from technology-enabled hardware solutions and tech-enabled subscription services and fees to increase,” Thompson wrote.

The tech-enabled marketing and digital asset management (DAM) sectors are forecasted to grow annually by 15% and 21%, respectively, Thompson said. DAM services generated only 1.3% of the company’s revenue in 2020.

But “with the proliferation of video and digital content, the total DAM addressable market is forecasted to reach US$6 billion by 2025, thus there is plenty of upside revenue potential,” Thompson wrote.

The Catalyst: More than CA$500 Million in Annual Sales

The new company would have more than CA$500 million in annual sales from day one, an expanded customer base, and an enhanced product portfolio, DCM said.

DCM is only buying the Canadian operations of RRD, which is a provider of marketing, packaging, print, and supply chain solutions with 25,000 clients worldwide across 29 countries.

“They serve key verticals from financial institutions, retail, insurance, transportation, government, and other regulated industries,” Kellam said.

RRD said it serves “thousands of customers across Canada.”

“Combining our business with DCM is a strategic opportunity to broaden our existing offering to customers across a variety of industries,” RRD President Rael Fisher said.

Under the share purchase agreement, DCM will acquire 100% of the shares of Moore Canada Corp. (RRD Canada) in a transaction expected to close in the second quarter of this year, subject to closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

DCM is financing 100% of the purchase in cash through “fully committed credit facilities from a Canadian Chartered Bank and Fiera Private Debt,” the company said in its news release.

Included in the purchase will be three sites owned by RRD with an implied net value of about CA$30 million. DCM said it intends to enter into a sale and lease-back arrangement for each site.

DCM Had a ‘Very Solid Year’

In its preliminary results for the fiscal year ending Dec. 31, 2022, DCM said total revenue increased to between CA$270 million to CA$274 million, or a jump of 15% to 16.5%, over 2021.

Gross profit as a percentage of revenue increased in a range of 30.5% to 31%, with gross profit increasing between 20% and 21% YoY.

The company plans to release the final results for 2022 and the fourth quarter of that year on March 21.

“We had a very solid year on revenue and revenue acceleration,” Kellam said. It was “one of the best growth years that we’ve delivered on record here in DCM. We’re very proud of the revenue acceleration, and the value we’re bringing to clients in the marketplace.”

DCM launched its DAM cloud solution, ASMBL, to manage corporate media files and other content, in 2021. The company has said the technology has the potential to become a key growth opportunity for DCM as it is deployed to the company’s 2,500 corporate clients.

DCM has been in business for 60 years. It helps companies with branding, communications, and logistics and provides customer loyalty programs, data, and content management, location-specific marketing, labels and asset tracking, multimedia campaign management, and workflow management. Its clients are in many industries, including financial services, health care, emerging markets, retail, non-profits, energy, hospitality, and transportation.

Ownership and Share Structure

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Retail: 55%
Management/Insiders: 45%
55%
45%
*Share Structure as of 3/2/2023

 

Management and insiders own about 45% of DCM, including a share program that gives employees close to 4% ownership.

Top insider shareholders include Director Michael Sifton with 10.2% or 4.5 million shares, Board Vice Chairman Greg Cochrane with 7.43% or 3.28 million shares, Chairman of the Board J.R. Kingsley Ward with 5.54% or 2.44 million shares, and the CEO Kellam with 1.66% or 0.73 million shares, according to Reuters.

According to the company, the rest, 55%, is retail. Reuters lists KST Industries Inc. as the top shareholder in the company overall with 11.69% or 5.15 million shares.

The company is covered by Noel Atkinson of Clarus Securities and Chris Thompson of eResearch. Newsletter writer Clive Maund also covers the stock.

It has a market cap of CA$82.84 million with 44 million shares outstanding, with 27.3 million shares free-floating. It trades in the 52-week range of CA$1.97 and CA$1.01.

 

Disclosures:

1) Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He or members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Data Communications Management Corp. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

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eResearch Disclosures:

eResearch was established in 2000 as Canada’s first equity issuer-sponsored research organization. As a primary source for professional investment research, our Subscribers benefit by having written research on a variety of under-covered companies. We also provide unsponsored research reports on middle and larger-cap companies, using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. We complement our corporate research coverage with a diversified selection of informative research publications from a wide variety of investment professionals. We provide our professional investment research and analysis directly to our extensive subscriber network of discerning investors, and electronically through our website: www.eresearch.com

NOTE: eResearch company reports are available FREE on our website: www.eresearch.com

eResearch Intellectual Property: No representations, express or implied, are made by eResearch as to the accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the comments made in this report. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security of the Company. Neither eResearch nor any person employed by eResearch accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss resulting from any use of this report or the information it contains. This report may not be reproduced, distributed, or published without the express permission of eResearch.

ANALYST ACCREDITATION

eResearch Analyst on this Report: Chris Thompson CFA, MBA, P.Eng.

Analyst Affirmation: I, Chris Thompson, hereby state that, at the time of issuance of this research report, I do not own common shares, share options, or share warrants of DATA Communications Management Corp. (TSX:DCM).

eRESEARCH DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

eResearch is engaged solely in the provision of equity research to the investment community. eResearch provides published research and analysis to its Subscribers on its website (www.eresearch.com), and to the general investing public through its extensive electronic distribution network and newswire agencies. eResearch makes all reasonable efforts to distribute research material simultaneously to all of its Subscribers.

eResearch does not manage money or trade with the general public, provides full disclosure of all fee arrangements, and adheres to the strict application of its Best Practices Guidelines. eResearch accepts fees from the companies it researches (the “Covered Companies”), and from financial institutions or other third parties. The purpose of this policy is to defray the cost of researching small and medium-capitalization stocks which otherwise receive little or no research coverage.

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Murrey Math Lines 03.03.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

BRENT

On H4, the quotes have broken through the 200-day Moving Average and are now above it, revealing possible development of an uptrend. The RSI is testing the support level. As a result, we are to expect an upward breakaway of 6/8 (84.38), followed by growth to the resistance level of 8/8 (87.50). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 5/8 (82.81). In this case, the pair may return to 4/8 (81.25).

BRENTH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which increases the probability of further growth of the price.

BRENT_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI has pushed off the resistance line. A test of 1/8 (3945.3) is expected, followed by a breakaway and decline to the support level of 0/8 (3906.2). The scenario can be cancelled by rising above the resistance level of 2/8 (3984.4). In this case, the index may rise to 3/8 (4023.4).

S&P 500_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the decline can additionally be confirmed by a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel.

S&P 500_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.03.03

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0667
  • Prev Close: 1.0596
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.67 %

The latest data showed that inflationary pressures remain in the Eurozone. Although the annualized consumer price index fell from 8.6% to 8.5%, core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) unexpectedly rose from 5.3% to 5.6%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 6.6% to 6.7%. Such data support the idea that without lower energy prices, inflation remains tight, which will reinforce the hawkish rhetoric of ECB policymakers. Core inflation data is likely to drive ECB decisions, with ECB head Christine Lagarde saying that the need for higher rates remains.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0582, 1.0544
  • Resistance levels: 1.0614, 1.0656, 1.0704, 1.0804, 1.0906, 1.0926, 1.0967

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price has fallen below the moving averages again. The MACD indicator has become negative, and sellers’ pressure prevails within the day. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered after an impulse breakdown of the resistance level 1.0614. Selling can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0656, subject to confirmation in the form of a reversal in the intraday time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the resistance level of 1.0704 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2023.03.03:
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2025
  • Prev Close: 1.1947
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.65 %

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak reached an agreement with the European Union on the status of Northern Ireland, which is expected to open up more trade after Brexit between the EU and the United Kingdom. The Brexit deal may lead to some short-term strengthening of the pound. Still, the medium-term picture for the British currency remains bleak amid a lot of problems in the economy with continued inflationary pressures.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1954, 1.1929, 1.1875
  • Resistance levels: 1.1988, 1.2051, 1.2087, 1.2147, 1.2200, 1.2267, 1.2311, 1.2416

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become negative. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell deals from the resistance level of 1.1988 or 1.2051 but with a confirmation in the form of a false breakout. Buy trades are best sought from the support level of 1.1954 but better with confirmation on intraday time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2147 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2023.03.03:
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 136.15
  • Prev Close: 136.74
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.43 %

The Japanese yen has remained stable this week. The Bank of Japan holds the interest rate at 0.10% and maintains control of the yield curve (YCC), targeting a range of +/- 0.50% near zero for Japanese ten years government bonds (JGBs). But yields often reach the upper range, causing the central bank to constantly have to step in and spend money. Analysts speculate that the YCC threshold may be adjusted in the second or third quarter of this year. But for now, the new governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kazuo Ueda, plans to temporarily maintain an ultra-soft monetary policy.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 136.55, 135.94, 135.04, 134.04, 133.47, 132.95, 131.43, 129.68
  • Resistance levels: 137.48

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price managed to consolidate above the level of 136.55, canceling the false breakout area. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but signs of divergence are still observed in several time frames. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought from the support level of 136.55, but only with intraday confirmation. Sell deals can be sought from the 137.48 resistance level, but with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative on the lower time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below the 135.04 support level, the downtrend will be resumed with a high probability.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2023.03.03:
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3590
  • Prev Close: 1.3595
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.04 %

Oil prices continued to rise on Thursday, helped by signs of a strong recovery in China, the largest importer of crude oil, and easing fears of aggressive rate hikes in the US. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it is highly correlated with the oil market. Given that the Bank of Canada has probably already completed its tightening cycle, while the US Fed is likely to peak rates by mid-summer, the increasing interest rate differential is not in favor of the Canadian dollar. However, strengthening oil prices may revive investor interest in the Canadian currency.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3582, 1.3513, 1.3471, 1.3441, 1.3390, 1.3347, 1.3295, 1.3212
  • Resistance levels: 1.3664, 1.3700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages and forming a wide-volatile corridor, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. The MACD indicator has become negative, and there is seller pressure inside the day. In such market conditions, buy trades are worth looking for from the support level of 1.3582, but only with a confirmation in the form of a false breakdown and a reverse reaction. Sell trades can be searched from the resistance level of 1.3664 or 1.3700, but only with a confirmation of a false breakout and short targets. The false break is very important in a reversal because there is a liquidity grab above /below the level.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3513, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2023.03.03:
  • – Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The Fed will not return to aggressive rate hikes. Inflation in the Eurozone is rising again

By JustMarkets

The US Treasury bond yields fell sharply yesterday after Atlanta Federal Reserve President Rafael Bostic ruled out a return to more aggressive Fed rate hikes and said the central bank would suspend its tightening efforts by mid to late summer. This brought optimism back to the stock market. As the stock market closed Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.05%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.76%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.73%.

According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 190,000 last week. Separate data showed that labor costs per unit rose 3.2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, nearly three times the preliminary estimate. The figures underscore the steady strength of the labor market.

Wells Fargo has pushed back its US recession forecast and now expects an economic slowdown in the second half of the year and expects interest rates to remain high for an extended period.

Macy’s (M) reported quarterly earnings that beat expectations, sending the department store chain’s stock up more than 10%.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.15%, French CAC 40 (FR40) jumped by 0.69%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.02%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed yesterday with a 0.37% gain.

The latest Eurozone inflation data showed that inflationary pressures remain elevated. The annualized consumer price index fell from 8.6% to 8.5%, but core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) unexpectedly rose from 5.3% to 5.6%. ECB meeting minutes on Thursday showed that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates after its March meeting. Analysts are currently forecasting a 0.5% ECB rate hike both at the March meeting and in May and another final 0.25% hike in June.

Oil prices rose Thursday, helped by signs of a strong economic recovery in China, the biggest importer of crude oil, and easing fears of aggressive rate hikes in the United States.

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) nears a peak in interest rates this summer, investors are starting to invest in gold. Gold is inversely correlated to government bond yields, which rise as interest rates rise. Therefore, a peak in rates would end the uptrend in yields, which would return fundamental support to the precious metals.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.06% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down by 0.92% for the day, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) lost 0.74%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.05%.

Japanese bond yields remain high as the Bank of Japan is unwilling to change its soft monetary policy. Incoming BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that now might not be the time to abandon current monetary policy given the current economic circumstances, a sign that the BoJ plans to stick with large-scale quantitative easing for the foreseeable future without making major adjustments to yield curve controls. The latest economic data showed that Tokyo’s core inflation rate fell from 4.3% to 3.3% year-over-year, and the unemployment rate also showed a decline from 2.5% to 2.4%. Such macro statistics are good for the BoJ in terms of maintaining stimulus.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,981.35 +29.96 (+0.76%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,003.57 +341.73 (+1.05%)

DAX (DE40) 115,327.64 +22.62 (+0.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,944.04 +29.11 (+0.37%)

USD Index 104.42 −0.45 (−0.43%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Week Ahead: Watch these 3 major FX pairs

By ForexTime

The FX world could see some heightened volatility if the US Dollar receives a double boost, along with any surprises out of G10 central banks in action over the coming week:

Monday, March 6

  • AUD: Australia February inflation gauge
  • EUR: Euro area January retail sales

Tuesday, March 7

  • AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia decision; Australia January external trade
  • CNH: China February external trade
  • EUR Germany January factory orders
  • USD: Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress

Wednesday, March 8

  • AUD: RBA Governor Philip Lowe speech
  • EUR: Eurozone 4Q GDP (final); Germany January industrial production and retail sales; ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
  • US crude: EIA crude oil inventories
  • CAD: Bank of Canada rate decision
  • USD: Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues testimony before Congress

Thursday, March 9

  • JPY: Japan 4Q GDP (final)
  • CNH: China February CPI
  • USD: US weekly jobless claims; US President Joe Biden to release fiscal 2024 US budget

Friday, March 10

  • JPY: Bank of Japan rate decision; Japan February PPI
  • EUR: Germany February CPI (final)
  • GBP: UK January GDP, industrial production, and trade balance
  • CAD: Canada February jobs report
  • USD: US February nonfarm payrolls report

 

Of course, we must start with King Dollar, which is set to face two major catalysts:

  1. Fed Chair Powell’s 2-day testimony before Congress (March 7-8)

    The US dollar may climb higher if the boss of the world’s most influential central bank affirms that US interest rates have to be raised further in order to vanquish red-hot inflation.

  2. February US jobs report (Friday, March 10)

    Here are the forecasts for this widely-followed economic data:

    – Nonfarm payrolls: 215,000 (lower than January’s blockbuster 517,000 new jobs added)

    – Unemployment rate: 3.4% (matching pre-pandemic lows)

    – Average hourly earnings month-on-month growth: 0.3% (matching January’s 0.3% month-on-month growth)

The US dollar could grow stronger if the above data exceed market forecasts, especially if still-resilient US hiring along with faster earnings growth feed into inflationary pressures.

Still-stubborn inflation would then force the Fed into prolonging its policy tightening, despite already triggering 450 basis points in demand-destroying rate hikes.

And recall that currencies tend to be boosted by the prospects of its economy’s interest rates moving even higher than its peers.

Fed Chair Powell pressing home his hawkish policy bias US jobs report exceeds market expectations = double boost for Dollar bulls!

 

 

Moving beyond the USD side of the FX equation, here are three G10 FX pairs to keep an eye on next week:

 

1) USDJPY

The Japanese Yen is expected to be the most volatile among its G10 peers versus the US dollar over the next one week.

 

The one-week implied volatility for USDJPY is duly rising again in the lead up to the March 10th  Bank of Japan policy meeting – the last one for outgoing BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

To be clear, markets aren’t expecting any policy changes (no rate hikes, no tweaks to yield curve control) for next week’s BoJ meeting.

Yet, traders are already on edge on rumours that Kuroda may deliver another surprise policy change as his final salvo before leaving the hot seat.

 

And why might Kuroda do just that?

Governor Kuroda may have to do the “dirty job” of rocking markets next week.

This would give markets time to digest an out-of-the-blue move, before handing over the reins of Japanese monetary policy in a calmer fashion to his successor, Kazuo Ueda, on April 9th.

Also, keep in mind that the BoJ has shown a penchant for shocking markets over the decades, including:

  • surprise rate hike on Christmas Day 1989
  • Kuroda’s bond purchase boost in 2014
  • Kuroda’s tweak to the yield curve control in December 2022

One final policy surprise before he steps down wouldn’t be uncharacteristic for Kuroda, and that could translate into big moves for the Japanese Yen.

Bloomberg FX model: 72% chance that USDJPY trades within 133.41 – 139.64 range next week.

 

 

2) AUDUSD

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike its cash rate by another 25 basis points, bringing it up to 3.6%.

However, the surprise slowdown in Australia’s January inflation data as well as last quarter’s (Q4 2022) GDP print suggest that the economy is already feeling the strain from the RBA’s rate hikes totaling 325 basis points since May 2022.

  • If the RBA actually stands pat on the cash rate, amid rising concerns of incurring too much economic damage, that may heap more downward pressure on AUDUSD.
  • On the other hand, if the RBA signals its intent to keep pressing ahead with even more rate hikes to cool down problematic inflation, that could see an uplift in AUDUSD.

Bloomberg FX model: 72% chance that AUDUSD trades within 0.6628 – 0.6867 range next week.

 

 

3) USDCAD

Referring back to the Bloomberg chart above of 1-week implied volatilities for G10 currencies vs. the US dollar …

The Canadian Dollar is set to have the mildest week relative to its G10 peers.

After all, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem had already signaled a pause in rate hikes at the central bank’s previous meeting in January.

For next week’s meeting, the Bank of Canada is expected to stand pat on its benchmark rate, keeping it at 4.5% – its highest level in 15 years.

 

Then comes Canada’s jobs report on Friday.

Weaker-than-expected Canadian employment data, which then threatens to widen the policy gap between a BoC that’s on pause versus a still-aggressive Federal Reserve … could see the Canadian Dollar lose out on its title as the smallest-loser against the US dollar so far this year.

Bloomberg FX model: 72% chance that AUDUSD trades within 0.6628 – 0.6867 range next week.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

$1 trillion in the shade – the annual profits multinational corporations shift to tax havens continues to climb and climb

By Ludvig Wier, University of Copenhagen and Gabriel Zucman, University of California, Berkeley 

CC BY-NC-ND

About a decade ago, the world’s biggest economies agreed to crack down on multinational corporations’ abusive use of tax havens. This resulted in a 15-point action plan that aimed to curb practices that shielded a large chunk of corporate profits from tax authorities.

But, according to our estimates, it hasn’t worked. Instead of reining in the use of tax havens – countries such as the Bahamas and Cayman Islands with very low or no effective tax rates – the problem has only gotten worse.

By our reckoning, corporations shifted nearly US$1 trillion in profits earned outside of their home countries to tax havens in 2019, up from $616 billion in 2015, the year before the global tax haven plan was implemented by the group of 20 leading economies, also known as the G-20.

In a new study, we measured the excessive profits reported in tax havens that cannot be explained by ordinary economic activity such as employees, factories and research in that country. Our findings – which you can explore in more detail along with the data and an interactive map in our public database – show a striking pattern of artificial shifting of paper profits to tax havens by corporations, which has been relentless since the 1980s.

Global crackdown

The current effort to curb the legal corporate practice of using tax havens to avoid paying taxes began in June 2012, when world leaders at the G-20 meeting in Los Cabos, Mexico, agreed on the need to do something.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of 37 democracies with market-based economies, developed a plan that consisted of 15 tangible actions it believed would significantly limit abusive corporate tax practices. These included creating a single set of international tax rules and cracking down on harmful tax practices.

In 2015, the G-20 adopted the plan officially, and implementation began across the world the following year.

In addition, following leaks like the Panama Papers and Paradise Papers – which shed light on dodgy corporate tax practices – public outrage led governments in the U.S. and Europe to initiate their own efforts to lower the incentive to shift profits to tax havens.

Profit-shifting soars

Our research shows all these efforts appear to have had little impact.

We found that the world’s biggest multinational businesses shifted 37% of the profits – or $969 billion – they earned in other countries (outside the headquarter country) to tax havens in 2019, up from about 20% in 2012 when G-20 leaders met in Los Cabos and agreed to crack down. The figure was less than 2% back in the 1970s. The main reasons for the large increase were the growth of the tax avoidance industry in the 1980s and U.S. policies that made it easier to shift profits from high-tax countries to tax havens.

We also estimate that the amount of corporate taxes lost as a result reached 10% of total corporate revenue in 2019, up from less than 0.1% in the 1970s.

In 2019, the total government tax loss globally was $250 billion. U.S. multinational corporations alone accounted for about half of that, followed by the U.K. and Germany.

Global minimum tax

How do policymakers fix this?

So far, the world as a whole has been trying to solve this problem by cutting or scrapping corporate taxes, albeit in a very gradual way. In the past 40 years, the global effective corporate tax rate has fallen from 23% to 17%. At the same time, governments have relied more heavily on consumption taxes, which are regressive and tend to increase income inequality.

But the root cause of profit-shifting is the incentives involved, such as generous or lenient corporate tax rates in other countries. If countries could agree on a global minimum corporate tax rate of, say, 20%, the problem of profit-shifting would, in our estimation, largely disappear, as tax havens would simply cease to exist.

This type of mechanism is exactly what more than 130 countries signed onto in 2021, with implementation of a 15% minimum tax set to begin in 2024 in the EU, U.K., Japan, Indonesia and many other countries. While the Biden administration has helped spearhead the global effort to implement the tax, the U.S. has notably not been able to get legislation through Congress.

Our research suggests implementing this type of tax reform is necessary to reverse the shift of ever-greater amounts of corporate profits going to tax havens – instead of being taxed by the governments where they operate and create value.The Conversation

About the Author:

Ludvig Wier, External Lecturer of Economics, University of Copenhagen and Gabriel Zucman, Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

The Year of Living Dangerously – Global Economic Prospects at a Turning Point

By Dan Steinbock

The year 2023 represents a turning point. If economic realities guide global prospects, it will be a positive turnaround. If geopolitics will continue to penalize economic prospects, a negative inflection point is more likely.

Recently, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), suggested that the year 2023 could “represent a turning point, with inflation declining and growth bottoming out.” She based the prediction on economic assumptions. Unfortunately, we no longer live under an economic status quo.

Since the mid-2010s and the advanced economies’ trade protectionism, sanctions and militarization, geopolitics has driven global prospects, as it did in the interwar period. As long as these underlying conditions prevail, so will persistent inflation.

The year 2023 could represent a turning point. Not the kind Georgieva had in mind – but a negative reversal.

Poor economies driving global growth

While the latest IMF projections show global growth slowing to 2.9 percent this year, the IMF anticipates a modest rebound to 3.1 percent in 2024. But it is the emerging and developing economies that are providing the momentum.

In 2021-24, the share of global growth by the largest emerging and developing economies will climb from 63 to over 80 percent. Accordingly, the share of the advanced economies will almost halve to less than 20 percent (Figure 1).

Figure 1 Global growth, 2021-E2024

Source: IMF

 

Starting from a low base, India’s GDP is still barely an eighth relative to the US and its growth is now slowing from the 7% growth projected to 6.8% in the 2023/24 fiscal year, as the global slowdown is likely to hurt exports. However, China’s GDP is already three-fourths of that of the US and this year growth in the mainland (5.8-6.5%) could prove almost as fast as that of India (6.0-6.8%).

Together, China and India are likely to account for almost a third of global growth in 2023, as the major advanced economies are coping with recessionary conditions. Furthermore, the share of emerging and developing economies of global growth will progressively increase, whereas that of advanced economies will continue to fall as secular stagnation is spreading among them.

The Fed as a global risk

Global economic prospects have been further penalized by the US Federal Reserve’s ill-advised monetary policies, particularly since fall 2021. After years of easy money and rounds of quantitative easing, the Fed misread the market signals after mid-2021, when inflation started to climb rapidly, and Fed chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the threat of soaring prices calling them “transitionary.”

It was a fatal policy mistake, which a year ago led to my warning that US inflation was the global risk of 2022. With the onset of the proxy war only a month later, I predicted that the world economy would have to cope with the risk of stagflationary recession, compounded by energy and food inflation. The rest, as they say, is history.

In its February 2023 meeting, the Fed raised the interest rate to 4.5-4.8 percent, pushing borrowing costs to the highest since 2007. Recently, Powell warned of more rate hikes and seems to be aiming at a rate of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, thus flirting with a recession.

Rather than transitionary, inflation has proved sticky and persistent. Thanks to America’s central role of the US in the world economy, what happens in America won’t stay in America.

Rich economies’ geopolitics penalizes global growth

Recently, US stocks sank to their lowest levels in a month, with the S&P 500 Index dropping under 4000. Despite interest rate at almost 5 percent, the inflation rate, which soared close to 10 percent in summer 2022, slowed only to 6.4 percent in January.

After the US hit its $31.4 trillion debt limit set by Congress, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that a failure to make payments that are due “would undoubtedly cause a recession in the US economy and could cause a global financial crisis.” New debt limit can be enacted, but not without unsustainable debt-taking.

In January, euro area bank lending fell again amid downturn, while cash and liquid deposits declined for the first time ever, thanks to rapid rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB analysts stressed that the euro area has “ shown remarkable economic resilience to the effects of the war [in Ukraine].” But that resilience is elusive because it’s also based on massive debt-taking.

Consumer price inflation was revised slightly higher to 8.6 percent year-on-year in January. That’s significantly below the peak of 11.1 percent in November, yet remains far above the ECB’s target of 2.0 percent. It is likely to result in half a percentage hike at the Bank’s mid-March meeting.

In Japan, inflation was negative until fall 2021. By January, it soared to 4.2 percent; the biggest increase since September 1981. Core inflation has been well above the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2% target for nine months in a row. This is largely attributable to continued increases in the cost of fuel and raw materials. Hence, the market’s rising concern about global bond market spillovers if and when the BOJ’s new chief Kazuo Ueda will hike interest rates (Figure 2).

Figure 2 Inflation and interest rates: US, euro area, Japan, and China

Source: Tradingeconomics, Difference Group

 

China’s rebound offsets the Fed’s risks

When Chinese policymakers began to prepare the reopening of the world’s second-largest economy, many international observers warned it would unleash inflationary headwinds. But numbers do not back up the story.

China’s annual inflation rate rose to only 2.1 percent in January. Expectedly, prices of food jumped and those of non-food gained further on the back of the Lunar New Year festival and the removal of pandemic measures. Nonetheless, the inflation rate remains only half relative to Japan, a third to the US and a fifth compared to the euro area. 

At the eve of the Two Sessions, Chinese leaders pledged stronger growth. Recovery is taking hold and economic activity picking up pace with the country’s reopening. China’s GDP growth could soar to 5.5 to 6 percent in 2023, or over 6 percent on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

Internally, China’s emphasis on social policies promoting a moderately prosperous society supports rising purchasing power among new middle-income groups. External risks have been in part reduced by the misguided US trade wars and protectionism, which have compelled Chinese policy authorities to stress the importance of self-sufficiency. Spillovers will be significant in those economies that participate in China’s huge Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the vast new trade bloc.

Global growth engines, without voice

The US, the euro area and Japan are struggling with secular stagnation and exporting runaway inflation. By contrast, China’s growth is accelerating while inflation remains in check. Its reopening could lift global GDP up to a stunning 1 percent in 2023.

Large emerging and developing economies are today’s global growth engines. Currently, their share of global growth exceeds 80 percent. While cyclical recession will end in the major advanced economies, their secular stagnation has barely begun. In the coming decade, the growth gap between the rich and poor economies won’t go away. It is positioned to deepen.

With broadening secular stagnation, the long-run economic growth in the major advanced economies will approach zero. Perhaps that’s why they are now so eager to use geopolitics and military muscle.

 About the Author:

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net

 

The original commentary was released by China-US Focus on March 1, 2023.

 

Murrey Math Lines 02.03.2023 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, revealing prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has bounced off the support level. The quotes should now rise above the resistance level of 7/8 (0.9460) and grow to 8/8 (0.9521). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 6/8 (0.9399). In this case, the pair may drop to 4/8 (0.9277).

USDCHFH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which increases the probabilitt of further growth.

USDCHF_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI has bounced off the resistance line. As a result, a downward breakaway of 1/8 (1828.12) is expected, followed by falling to the support level of -1/8 (1796.88). The scenario can be cancelled by an upward breakaway of the resistance level of 2/8 (1843.75). In this case, the quotes might rise to 4/8 (1875.50).

XAUUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, further falling of the price can be supported by a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel.

XAUUSD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.