InvestMacro

Trade Of The Week: EURAUD Major Breakout On The Horizon?

If you have an appetite for volatility, then keep a close eye on the EURAUD!

The currency pair has rallied over 550 pips since the start of March with bulls smashing through key levels of resistance with the destructive force of a wrecking ball. After hitting a fresh 2023 high at 1.6254 last week and concluding on a firm note, the path of least resistance certainly points north.

Euro strength remains the primary driver behind the EURAUD’s incredible upside. We have seen the euro appreciate against most G10 currencies month-to-date.

On the other hand, the past few weeks have certainly not been kind to the Australian dollar thanks to risk aversion and concerns over the health of Australia’s economy.

This potent combination of euro strength and aussie weakness reinforced the bullish fundamental view for the EURAUD. Given how prices are also trading well above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA, the technicals also favour more upside momentum. However, the key question is whether bulls have enough strength to conquer the weekly resistance at 1.6200. It is worth keeping in mind that the last time prices secured a weekly close above this point was back in August 2021.

The low down…

It has been an intense month for the EURAUD thanks to central bank meetings, key economic reports, and major risk events.

Earlier this month, the RBA delivered a dovish hike by moving ahead with a 25bp rate increase and signalling a potential pause in its 10-month tightening cycle. One week later, the European Central Bank hiked rates by 50bp, focusing on its fight against inflation despite the chaos revolving around Silicon Valley Bank. As the negative developments concerning the banking sector intensified with Credit Suisse hijacking the headlines, the risk-off sentiment hit appetite for the Australian dollar. Although some stability has returned to markets, lingering fears around the banking sector could keep the Australian dollar depressed. A weaker Aussie is likely to fuel the upside on the EURAUD.

The week ahead…

We could see some increased activity on the AUD and EUR this week due to key economic reports.

Sentiment towards the German economy received a boost on Monday after the Ifo Business Climate indicator increased to 93.3 in March – the highest seen since February 2021. Given how this survey is seen as one of the best indicators for economic growth, it could support the euro in the near term.

Mid-week, the focus will be directed toward Australia’s February CPI report which is expected to show inflation easing to 7.2% from 7.4% in January. Signs of easing inflation pressures may support the argument for the RBA to pause its monetary tightening cycle in its April report. Ultimately, this development has the potential the weaken the Aussie further.

Germany’s latest inflation figures and Eurozone confidence data will be published on Thursday. The preliminary estimates are expected to reveal that inflation cooled to 7.3% in March from 8.7% in February.

The major risk event for the euro may be on Friday due to the Eurozone’s February unemployment and March inflation figures. Markets expect the rate of unemployment to remain unchanged at 6.7% in February. In regards to inflation, this is expected to fall sharply in March to 7.1% from 8.5% in the previous month. If the swift decline in inflation becomes reality, it will be interesting to see whether fuels speculation around the ECB pausing rates down the road.

Will EURAUD conquer weekly 1.6200 resistance?

It looks like the EURAUD could be gearing up for a bullish breakout if 1.6200 can be conquered. Although prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts, some consolidation is taking place as bulls and bears wait for a fresh fundamental spark. Minor support can be found at 1.6140 and minor resistance around 1.6250. A solid daily breakout and close above 1.6250 could inject bulls with enough strength to end the week above the key 1.6200 level. Such an outcome may open doors towards 1.6400 and 1.6550.

Alternatively, sustained weakness below 1.6200 could see prices slip back towards 1.6140 and 1.5900 – a level just above the 200-week Simple Moving Average.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

27 Mar

The fall of Deutsche Bank has renewed tensions in the banking sector. Oil prices are under pressure

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.40% (+1.15% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.41% (+1.37% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.31% on Friday (+1.80% for the week).

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, in line with expectations, but signaled that the hike cycle might be coming to an end in response to nervousness about US banks after the unexpected collapse of two medium-term regional small banks. According to analysts, the turmoil in the banking sector, which caused turmoil on Wall Street earlier this month, is likely to lead to a credit crunch for households and businesses in the coming months, creating a meaningful process of disinflation. This will ease the pressure on the central bank, limiting the need for overly restrictive policies. The economy does not yet reflect the real problems that will result from a significant tightening of lending standards, but the negative effects will soon become visible.

While Fed officials still view the possibility of additional rate hikes as a high probability, financial markets are now leaning toward a probability (85%) that there will be no rate hike at all at the Central Bank’s next policy meeting in May.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 1.66% (+1.64% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 1.74% (+1.65% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 2.10% (+1.26% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was down by 1.26% (+0.95% for the week).

On Friday, bank stocks in Europe fell sharply, with Deutsche Bank and UBS Group suffering the most due to fears that problems in the banking sector may persist. Investor attention has recently focused on the German giant Deutsche Bank. Its shares have lost more than a quarter of their value this month, including an 8.5% drop on Friday, and the cost of default protection on its bonds has risen sharply. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Friday at a news conference in Brussels that Deutsche Bank “has carefully reorganized and modernized its business model and is a very profitable bank,” adding that there was no reason to speculate about its future. But that hasn’t reassured investors. Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, said Sunday that risks to financial stability had risen and urged continued vigilance.

The shadow banking sector is a “weak point in the financial system” and could trigger the next financial crisis, European Central Bank (ECB) vice president Luis de Guindos has warned. In his opinion, the European banking sector is “reliable and stable,” but the non-banking sector “could become a source of problems for the entire financial sector.

Ukraine demands an extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council over Putin’s intentions to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. NATO criticizes Putin for his “dangerous and irresponsible” nuclear rhetoric. While the US downplayed concerns about Putin’s statement, NATO said the Russian president’s pledge of nuclear non-proliferation was far from the truth.

The consequences of banks weakening their role in commodities could be far-reaching and negative. How are banks related to oil? No barrel of crude oil can move without financing or liquidity provided by banks. Banks are market makers for all commodities, not just oil, because they bring buyers and sellers together. Therefore, independent oil and gas producers may have limited ability to hedge price risks associated with investments and inventories. A possible recession in the United States, sanctions against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine, the release of strategic reserves, and strikes at refineries in France are all shaking up oil markets. For the growth of oil prices now, it is necessary for the situation in the banking sector to calm down, and demand in China began to recover on the threshold of summer.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.56% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 2.18% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up by 2.91%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) decreased by 0.07%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week down by 0.56%. Most Asian stocks fell Monday amid renewed fears of new bank defaults in the US and Europe, with Chinese markets falling the most as weak results drove oil and gas stocks lower.

In the commodities market, futures on cocoa (+5.19%), orange juice (+4.7%), copper (+4.64%), silver (+4.02%), WTI oil (+3.39%), gasoline (+3.17%) and Brent (+2.78%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on lumber (-8.46%), natural gas (-6.72%), soybeans (-3.18%), and wheat (-2.89%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,970.99 +22.27 (+0.56%)

Dow Jones (US30)32,237.53 +132.28 (+0.41%)

DAX (DE40) 14,957.23 −253.16 (−1.66%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,405.45 −94.15 (−1.26%)

USD Index 103.12 +0.58 (+0.57%)

Important events for today:

– German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech at 20:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

27 Mar

Overseas Buyers Scoop Up U.S. Shares (Bullish or Bearish)?

“No crowd buys stocks of other countries intelligently”

By Elliott Wave International

The fact that investors from other countries are feverishly buying U.S. stocks might seem like a bullish sign.

On the other hand, consider what Robert Prechter said in his book, Prechter’s Perspective:

No crowd buys stocks of other countries intelligently. For decades, heavy foreign buying in the U.S. stock market has served as an excellent indicator of major tops.

Some of the heaviest foreign buying — whether it’s in the U.S. or another country — tends to occur when a trend is near or at an end.

Looking at an example: In the late 1980s, after years on the sidelines, foreigners became net buyers of Japanese stocks. This coincided with the ending phase of one of the biggest bull markets in history.

Returning to the U.S. but sticking with roughly that same period of history, here’s what the Sept. 2000 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus financial markets, had to say as it showed this chart:

This chart of the Dow and foreigners’ net purchases of U.S. equities illustrates how beautifully the pattern has held through the U.S. bull market of the 1990s. The solid lines show the flood of foreign buyers within a month of each high, and the dotted lines show them rushing back out again on the months of the big lows. Early in the decade, when stocks were a bargain, foreigners were net sellers. They did not sustain net purchases until the Dow crossed 8000 in 1997.

By the way, overseas buyers also zealously bought U.S. shares right before the 2007 top.

As a quick reminder, the reason for mentioning all of this is what I said at the outset about feverish overseas buying of U.S. shares presently. Here are more details via this chart and commentary from our March Financial Forecast:

Foreigners are surging back into U.S. equities. At $42.9 billion in November, the latest reading of foreign purchases is higher than both the 2000 and 2007 buying extremes. It is shy of the December 2020 record of $78.6 billion, but if foreigners flocked to U.S. stocks the way retail investors did in January, we may find that when the latest readings are released, foreign purchases will be at a new record.

One way to utilize the foreign buying (or, selling) indicator is with the Elliott wave model.

If you’re unfamiliar with Elliott wave analysis, or simply need a refresher on the subject, check out EWI’s FreePass for a Changed World event – thru March 31.

FreePass for a Changed World will give you an in-depth look at the analysis you can use to anticipate changes in inflation, interest rates and every other major category of investment concern.

Subscribers gladly pay $97 per month to get the market forecasts you’ll get for free in FreePass for a Changed World. But for FreePass, there’s no credit card required and zero strings attached.

Risks have changed. Opportunities have changed. The world has changed, in very real ways.

Join FreePass for a Changed World now and find out what your new strategies must include.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Overseas Buyers Scoop Up U.S. Shares (Bullish or Bearish)?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News

26 Mar

Currency Speculators drop their Canadian Dollar bets fall to 218-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

* This COT data is fully up-to-date after weeks of delays due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). The hacking incident had disrupted the ability for the CFTC to report large trader positions.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (8,449 contracts) with the EuroFX (4,886 contracts), Swiss Franc (2,668 contracts), Australian Dollar (1,632 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (387 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-25,106 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (-14,597 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-4,042 contracts), the British Pound (-3,184 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,414 contracts) and Bitcoin (-519 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

CAD bets fall to 218-week low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the bearishness of the speculator’s positioning in the Canadian dollar. Large speculative CAD positions fell this week by over -25,000 contracts and have now declined in five out of the past seven weeks. This recent bearishness has brought the overall net position (currently at -56,821 contracts) to the lowest level in the past 218 weeks, dating back all the way to January 15th of 2019. The CAD speculator strength score (range from 0 to 100) is currently at 0.0 percent while the 6-week speculator strength trend is at -22 percent.

The Canadian dollar exchange rate versus the US dollar has been in a downtrend to start 2023 with the CAD futures (front month) price sitting currently at 0.7287. The CAD futures opened 2023 around the 0.7382 exchange rate and reached its highest level in late January at 0.7541 before trending lower.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	33,819	31	14,144	49	-16,708	49	2,564	45
EUR	737,437	70	144,842	74	-191,171	26	46,329	53
GBP	190,796	31	-20,498	51	25,506	51	-5,008	48
JPY	169,188	31	-66,345	28	72,484	71	-6,139	41
CHF	35,837	21	-7,297	35	12,611	66	-5,314	40
CAD	178,185	49	-56,821	0	64,449	100	-7,628	6
AUD	151,836	50	-38,459	49	50,554	57	-12,095	23
NZD	32,179	13	-8,783	30	8,896	67	-113	50
MXN	222,130	45	51,530	88	-56,413	13	4,883	86
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	42,222	30	24,857	67	-30,775	27	5,918	100
Bitcoin	14,049	70	-621	66	-103	0	724	29

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (88 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (67 percent), Bitcoin (66 percent) and the British Pound (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (28 percent), New Zealand Dollar (30 percent) and the Swiss Franc (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (48.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.9 percent)
EuroFX (74.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (51.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (54.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (35.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (28.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (23.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (49.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (47.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (29.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (87.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (98.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (67.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.7 percent)
Bitcoin (66.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (75.2 percent)

Mexican Peso & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (73 percent) and Bitcoin (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (3 percent), the Swiss Franc (-2 percent) and the British Pound (-5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-23 percent), Canadian Dollar (-22 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.6 percent)
EuroFX (-7.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-4.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-5.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (0.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-33.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-4.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-22.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-1.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-9.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-53.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (72.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (84.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (8.5 percent)
Bitcoin (9.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (29.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 14,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,757 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	4.0	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	53.4	6.8
– Net Position:	14,144	-16,708	2,564
– Gross Longs:	26,258	1,338	4,864
– Gross Shorts:	12,114	18,046	2,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	49.2	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-1.9	-7.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 144,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 139,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	56.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	82.6	5.6
– Net Position:	144,842	-191,171	46,329
– Gross Longs:	215,825	417,802	87,688
– Gross Shorts:	70,983	608,973	41,359
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	25.9	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	6.9	-0.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	67.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	54.3	14.9
– Net Position:	-20,498	25,506	-5,008
– Gross Longs:	28,652	129,030	23,376
– Gross Shorts:	49,150	103,524	28,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	51.4	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	-4.0	24.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -66,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.3	79.4	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.5	36.6	18.0
– Net Position:	-66,345	72,484	-6,139
– Gross Longs:	7,255	134,389	24,336
– Gross Shorts:	73,600	61,905	30,475
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.0	71.0	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	19.1	-3.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	54.6	27.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	19.4	42.7
– Net Position:	-7,297	12,611	-5,314
– Gross Longs:	4,853	19,555	9,978
– Gross Shorts:	12,150	6,944	15,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	65.8	39.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	3.0	-3.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -56,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	71.7	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	35.6	21.0
– Net Position:	-56,821	64,449	-7,628
– Gross Longs:	18,812	127,798	29,717
– Gross Shorts:	75,633	63,349	37,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	5.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.5	22.1	-19.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -38,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	57.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	24.2	19.8
– Net Position:	-38,459	50,554	-12,095
– Gross Longs:	41,183	87,354	17,905
– Gross Shorts:	79,642	36,800	30,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.2	56.6	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	20.8	-42.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -8,783 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,741 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	67.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.3	39.4	10.9
– Net Position:	-8,783	8,896	-113
– Gross Longs:	6,765	21,576	3,392
– Gross Shorts:	15,548	12,680	3,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	67.5	50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-53.2	45.6	3.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 51,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,127 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.9	50.9	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	76.3	1.0
– Net Position:	51,530	-56,413	4,883
– Gross Longs:	101,899	113,013	7,110
– Gross Shorts:	50,369	169,426	2,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.6	13.0	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	72.6	-68.9	2.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.6	17.5	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.7	90.4	2.9
– Net Position:	24,857	-30,775	5,918
– Gross Longs:	27,681	7,401	7,140
– Gross Shorts:	2,824	38,176	1,222
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	5.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	26.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	4.7	41.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.2	3.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.7	3.8	5.2
– Net Position:	-621	-103	724
– Gross Longs:	10,851	429	1,450
– Gross Shorts:	11,472	532	726
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.1	54.5	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-29.8	2.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

26 Mar

COT Metals Speculators pushed their Gold bullish bets to 7-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as three out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (18,274 contracts) with Silver (4,681 contracts) and Copper (1,805 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-1,047 contracts) and Palladium (-550 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold bets on the rise

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the recent bullishness for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures advanced this week for a second straight week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. The Gold position has gone from a total net position of +105,529 contracts on February 14th to a new 7-week high at a total of +158,605 contracts this week with the five-week total of speculator bets showing a gain of +53,076 contracts. The speculator strength score (0 to 100 range) for Gold has risen to 47 percent while the 6-week speculator strength score trend has shown a rise of 13 percent.

The Gold futures price closed below the $1,995 price level this week after touching its highest point in just about a year over the $2,014.00 threshold on Monday. Gold has gained over 20 percent since its recent low levels in early November that saw the price fall to approximately $1,618.30.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	469,874	22	158,605	47	-183,568	53	24,963	43
Silver	119,082	0	3,462	23	-12,681	79	9,219	17
Copper	201,636	44	-12,351	17	7,536	80	4,815	49
Palladium	11,647	80	-7,018	1	7,369	100	-351	21
Platinum	61,416	45	9,526	38	-14,141	64	4,615	30

Strength Scores led by Gold & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Gold (47 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Platinum (38 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (1 percent) and Copper (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (46.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (38.8 percent)
Silver (23.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.5 percent)
Copper (17.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.8 percent)
Platinum (37.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (40.0 percent)
Palladium (0.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.8 percent)

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (13 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for metals.

Palladium (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-14 percent) as the next market with lowest trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (13.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-8.8 percent)
Silver (-14.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-40.7 percent)
Copper (-13.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-28.1 percent)
Platinum (-2.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-12.8 percent)
Palladium (-26.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-20.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 158,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.6	25.9	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	65.0	4.8
– Net Position:	158,605	-183,568	24,963
– Gross Longs:	237,891	121,678	47,624
– Gross Shorts:	79,286	305,246	22,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	53.1	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-11.8	2.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 3,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	40.9	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	51.5	11.0
– Net Position:	3,462	-12,681	9,219
– Gross Longs:	41,325	48,685	22,328
– Gross Shorts:	37,863	61,366	13,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	78.5	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	20.6	-38.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	46.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	43.1	6.3
– Net Position:	-12,351	7,536	4,815
– Gross Longs:	51,095	94,353	17,564
– Gross Shorts:	63,446	86,817	12,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	79.8	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.3	15.9	-24.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 9,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	39.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	62.8	4.6
– Net Position:	9,526	-14,141	4,615
– Gross Longs:	25,199	24,399	7,431
– Gross Shorts:	15,673	38,540	2,816
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	64.2	29.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	4.9	-17.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	73.0	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.3	9.7	13.6
– Net Position:	-7,018	7,369	-351
– Gross Longs:	1,633	8,498	1,234
– Gross Shorts:	8,651	1,129	1,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	7.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	99.6	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.9	25.1	-3.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

26 Mar

COT Bonds Speculators boosting 2-Year Bond bets after record low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (67,316 contracts) with the Fed Funds (64,355 contracts), US Treasury Bonds (50,579 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (34,396 contracts) and the Eurodollar (23,399 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-74,356 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-63,663 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-436 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

2-Year Bonds bets rising after record low

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the rapid improvement of the speculator positioning in the 2-Year Bonds. Large speculative positions for the 2-Year Bond rose this week for a fifth consecutive week and by a total of 232,489 contracts in just the past five weeks. The 2-Year Bond speculator positions hit an all-time record low of -696,686 net contracts on February 14th before starting this recent five-week positive streak that has taken the current net position down to -464,197 contracts. This week’s net position marks the least bearish level of the past nine weeks.

The 2-Year Bond futures price have rebounded sharply over the past month due to a combination of a banking crisis and the sentiment that the Federal Reserve will slow or pause the pace of interest rate increases. According to the CME FedWatch Tool at the current time, traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May but as the calendar progresses, traders are starting to forecast that the Fed will be cutting rates before the end of this year. Rate cuts would positively effect the bonds markets and especially the 2-Year as it is heavily influenced by Fed policy on the shorter end of the yield curve. This week the 2-Year Bond futures price closed near 103.29 and at the highest close since September.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	4,779,104	0	-637,971	58	833,869	42	-195,898	61
FedFunds	1,847,792	76	-24,352	37	30,578	64	-6,226	79
2-Year	2,314,664	49	-464,197	30	444,096	70	20,101	65
Long T-Bond	1,235,097	67	-99,413	52	43,617	26	55,796	100
10-Year	4,155,764	76	-571,029	7	540,067	79	30,962	91
5-Year	4,350,302	97	-631,568	12	626,445	83	5,123	82

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (58 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (52 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (37 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra Treasury Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (29.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (21.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (21.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (7.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (35.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (0.2 percent)
Eurodollar (57.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (57.1 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (27 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Eurodollar (10 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra Treasury Bonds (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-7 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (5.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-8.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (24.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (21.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (1.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-6.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (26.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-10.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.3 percent)
Eurodollar (10.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (9.4 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -637,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 23,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -661,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	66.8	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	49.4	9.4
– Net Position:	-637,971	833,869	-195,898
– Gross Longs:	334,819	3,193,023	251,700
– Gross Shorts:	972,790	2,359,154	447,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	41.5	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-10.5	9.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -24,352 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 64,355 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,707 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	76.6	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	74.9	2.6
– Net Position:	-24,352	30,578	-6,226
– Gross Longs:	161,900	1,414,738	41,466
– Gross Shorts:	186,252	1,384,160	47,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.6	63.6	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-5.7	8.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -464,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 67,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -531,513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	84.6	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	65.5	7.3
– Net Position:	-464,197	444,096	20,101
– Gross Longs:	146,530	1,959,237	188,296
– Gross Shorts:	610,727	1,515,141	168,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	69.7	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.8	-24.0	-12.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -631,568 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -74,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -557,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	82.4	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	68.0	7.6
– Net Position:	-631,568	626,445	5,123
– Gross Longs:	389,000	3,586,593	335,724
– Gross Shorts:	1,020,568	2,960,148	330,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	82.7	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-1.4	-6.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -571,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -63,663 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -507,366 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	80.1	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	67.1	8.2
– Net Position:	-571,029	540,067	30,962
– Gross Longs:	379,104	3,329,656	372,551
– Gross Shorts:	950,133	2,789,589	341,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.0	79.3	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-12.7	24.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -158,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 34,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -192,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.7	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	63.8	15.0
– Net Position:	-158,126	218,538	-60,412
– Gross Longs:	153,805	1,224,366	176,050
– Gross Shorts:	311,931	1,005,828	236,462
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	81.0	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	-3.9	29.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -99,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 50,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,992 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	77.7	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	74.2	9.2
– Net Position:	-99,413	43,617	55,796
– Gross Longs:	102,678	959,632	169,332
– Gross Shorts:	202,091	916,015	113,536
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	26.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-36.2	16.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -443,962 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -443,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.4	84.6	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	57.1	7.4
– Net Position:	-443,962	391,927	52,035
– Gross Longs:	62,308	1,206,968	157,069
– Gross Shorts:	506,270	815,041	105,034
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.1	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	4.6	14.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

26 Mar

COT Large Speculators have dropped their Corn bullish bets to near 130-week lows

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn, Coffee & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (15,699 contracts) with Coffee (6,386 contracts), Wheat (6,111 contracts), Cocoa (5,827 contracts) and Soybeans (3,793 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-25,773 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-24,378 contracts), Sugar (-20,487 contracts), Lean Hogs (-11,936 contracts), Cotton (-8,794 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-1,481 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the recent sharp decreases in the Corn speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Corn have been in somewhat of a free-fall over the past five weeks (despite this week’s gain) as Corn bets have dropped for four out of the past five weeks and by a total of -245,236 contracts over that time-frame. The speculator positioning have sharply declined from a total of +304,712 contracts on February 14th to a total of just +59,476 contracts through Tuesday.

The last two weeks marked the first time that net positions have been under +100,000 contracts since September of 2020, a span of about 130 weeks. Corn’s speculator strength score level has dipped to 37.6 percent while its 6-week strength score trend has illuminated its recent weakness with a -28.5 percent trend score.

Corn’s futures price has risen for the past two weeks but is off the lofty heights of 2022 when prices reached highs in the 750-800 range. This week Corn closed out near the 644.00 level after bouncing off of support at the 600 level over the previous few weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,791,902	35	154,341	0	-178,904	100	24,563	40
Gold	469,874	22	158,605	47	-183,568	53	24,963	43
Silver	119,082	0	3,462	23	-12,681	79	9,219	17
Copper	201,636	44	-12,351	17	7,536	80	4,815	49
Palladium	11,647	80	-7,018	1	7,369	100	-351	21
Platinum	61,416	45	9,526	38	-14,141	64	4,615	30
Natural Gas	1,283,037	65	-144,681	14	113,440	85	31,241	54
Brent	149,302	11	-46,349	20	43,543	78	2,806	47
Heating Oil	279,105	28	9,829	45	-22,477	60	12,648	42
Soybeans	696,280	26	171,787	57	-141,848	48	-29,939	22
Corn	1,349,372	21	59,476	38	3,793	72	-63,269	15
Coffee	201,018	13	18,696	47	-17,673	58	-1,023	0
Sugar	929,418	55	210,656	66	-258,522	29	47,866	67
Wheat	370,297	49	-59,203	12	59,325	89	-122	90

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Cocoa

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (77 percent) and Cocoa (76 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (66 percent), Soybeans (57 percent) and Live Cattle (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Cotton (0 percent), Soybean Oil (3 percent) and Wheat (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (37.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (35.6 percent)
Sugar (66.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (73.4 percent)
Coffee (46.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (40.0 percent)
Soybeans (56.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (77.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (90.0 percent)
Live Cattle (56.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (85.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (11.6 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.6 percent)
Cocoa (75.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (67.7 percent)
Wheat (11.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.6 percent)

Cocoa & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (21 percent) and Coffee (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities and represent the only two positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-28 percent), Cotton (-18 percent) and Soybean Oil (-18 percent) following next with lowest trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-28.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (-32.3 percent)
Sugar (-8.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-5.5 percent)
Coffee (17.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (14.6 percent)
Soybeans (-1.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-21.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-14.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-0.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-28.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (20.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-9.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-2.1 percent)
Cotton (-17.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.8 percent)
Cocoa (21.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.5 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-21.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	49.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	49.2	13.1
– Net Position:	59,476	3,793	-63,269
– Gross Longs:	327,137	667,983	113,622
– Gross Shorts:	267,661	664,190	176,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	72.4	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.5	29.6	12.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 210,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 231,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	38.1	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	65.9	5.7
– Net Position:	210,656	-258,522	47,866
– Gross Longs:	302,634	353,905	101,185
– Gross Shorts:	91,978	612,427	53,319
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	29.0	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	6.8	1.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,310 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	49.6	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	58.3	4.2
– Net Position:	18,696	-17,673	-1,023
– Gross Longs:	43,072	99,606	7,452
– Gross Shorts:	24,376	117,279	8,475
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.6	58.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-14.6	-24.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 171,787 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	44.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	64.9	11.2
– Net Position:	171,787	-141,848	-29,939
– Gross Longs:	210,762	310,325	47,727
– Gross Shorts:	38,975	452,173	77,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	47.7	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-2.8	18.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	56.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	56.5	6.7
– Net Position:	-567	1,924	-1,357
– Gross Longs:	74,741	259,796	29,346
– Gross Shorts:	75,308	257,872	30,703
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	20.2	-26.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 133,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -24,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.3	36.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.2	71.8	6.8
– Net Position:	133,343	-150,414	17,071
– Gross Longs:	155,660	157,931	46,260
– Gross Shorts:	22,317	308,345	29,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.2	24.0	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	13.9	6.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 69,700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -25,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	28.0	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	49.4	12.4
– Net Position:	69,700	-67,647	-2,053
– Gross Longs:	118,518	88,370	37,174
– Gross Shorts:	48,818	156,017	39,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	39.2	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.4	25.5	23.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -17,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,717 net contracts.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	36.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	28.8	11.3
– Net Position:	-17,653	17,350	303
– Gross Longs:	63,404	80,723	25,180
– Gross Shorts:	81,057	63,373	24,877
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	99.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	10.4	-1.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,788 net contracts.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	50.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	43.4	7.2
– Net Position:	-11,582	14,226	-2,644
– Gross Longs:	51,426	99,630	11,525
– Gross Shorts:	63,008	85,404	14,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.6	19.5	-32.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,019 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	41.5	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	53.8	3.1
– Net Position:	37,846	-42,636	4,790
– Gross Longs:	96,676	143,115	15,642
– Gross Shorts:	58,830	185,751	10,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	23.7	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-26.8	40.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,111 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	35.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	19.9	9.8
– Net Position:	-59,203	59,325	-122
– Gross Longs:	105,293	133,069	35,982
– Gross Shorts:	164,496	73,744	36,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	89.0	90.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	9.7	10.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

26 Mar

COT Stock Market Speculators raised their SP500-Mini bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (11,856 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,315 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (1,438 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (1,352 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-82,661 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-19,234 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-2,068 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT stocks data this week is the bearish bets in the S&P500-Mini speculative positions. The large speculator position in S&P500-Mini futures dropped this week by over -80,000 contracts and fell for the second time in three weeks. The S&P500-Mini bets have now been in a bearish net position for the past 40 straight weeks, dating back to June 14th of 2022.

The current overall speculator level is currently at a highly bearish net position level of -202,480 speculator contracts with a bearish-extreme strength score level (18.7 percent) and while the 6-week strength trend actually posted a small gain of 2.8 percent (see strength scores further below).

The S&P500 stock futures price has been very resilient over the past month with a combination of rate hikes and a banking crisis not being able to knock the price from its short-term uptrend that started in October. The S&P500 stock futures price closed the week right around the psychological level of 4000.00 after making small gains in the past two weeks.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-21-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,149,005	12	-202,480	19	266,455	84	-63,975	13
Nikkei 225	10,419	0	-930	73	795	34	135	30
Nasdaq-Mini	214,876	22	-5,120	72	16,858	37	-11,738	31
DowJones-Mini	81,747	41	-22,148	17	30,063	99	-7,915	0
VIX	330,622	57	-49,649	78	52,093	20	-2,444	79
Nikkei 225 Yen	34,599	9	3,577	45	8,390	34	-11,967	63

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (78 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (73 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (17 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (19 percent) are the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (78.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (70.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (18.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (34.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (17.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (22.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (72.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (71.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (45.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (42.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (73.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (66.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (50.7 percent)

Russell-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (14 percent), the Nikkei 225 (10 percent) and the VIX (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (10.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (3.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (2.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (19.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-41.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-28.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (5.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (5.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (18.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (8.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (10.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (12.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (14.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (49.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -49,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,505 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	53.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	37.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-49,649	52,093	-2,444
– Gross Longs:	58,803	175,971	26,589
– Gross Shorts:	108,452	123,878	29,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.4	19.8	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-12.9	20.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -202,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -82,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,819 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	78.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	65.8	12.6
– Net Position:	-202,480	266,455	-63,975
– Gross Longs:	203,125	1,681,318	205,770
– Gross Shorts:	405,605	1,414,863	269,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	84.3	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	7.8	-14.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -22,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	67.5	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.2	30.7	22.6
– Net Position:	-22,148	30,063	-7,915
– Gross Longs:	15,604	55,161	10,581
– Gross Shorts:	37,752	25,098	18,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	98.9	0.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.8	45.9	-30.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,120 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	59.1	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	51.3	20.2
– Net Position:	-5,120	16,858	-11,738
– Gross Longs:	53,063	127,004	31,697
– Gross Shorts:	58,183	110,146	43,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.2	36.9	31.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-8.2	6.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -44,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	85.6	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	76.3	4.6
– Net Position:	-44,988	44,694	294
– Gross Longs:	40,762	411,188	22,631
– Gross Shorts:	85,750	366,494	22,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	55.6	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-11.9	-27.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	52.6	26.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	44.9	25.0
– Net Position:	-930	795	135
– Gross Longs:	2,200	5,476	2,743
– Gross Shorts:	3,130	4,681	2,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	34.0	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-13.7	6.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -19,234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	89.6	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	87.6	0.5
– Net Position:	-14,077	7,542	6,535
– Gross Longs:	30,891	348,705	8,454
– Gross Shorts:	44,968	341,163	1,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	68.1	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-14.8	2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

24 Mar

Global markets turbulent on bank fears, investors eye buying opportunities

By George Prior

Heightening volatility in major stock markets around the world, triggered by concerns of the global banking system, will be used by investors as a buying opportunity, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The observation from deVere Group’s Nigel Green come as US stock futures fell on Friday, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 1.5% by mid-morning, following a mixed session in Asia-Pacific markets.

He says: “Deutsche Bank shares have dropped for a third consecutive day – they’re now down 13% – and have now lost more than a fifth of their value so far this month.

“The emergency rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS, in the wake of the collapse of the US based Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Banks, has triggered a wave of contagion fears among investors, which was further exacerbated by more monetary policy tightening from the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday.”

The deVere CEO continues: “The growing sense of unease about the global banking system is heightening volatility in stock markets around the world.

“Savvy investors will be using this turbulence as a buying opportunity because the current creeping fearful sentiment doesn’t just hit the banking sector, it becomes more generalised.

“This brings down the prices of other high-quality stocks and investors seize on this to top-up their portfolios at lower entry points.

“Clearly, they won’t want to miss out on some key opportunities, but they must also avoid the ‘buy everything’ mindset.”

Whilst inflation remains a major headwind, Nigel Green explains, investors should “remain alive to other metrics” in investment decision-making.

When costs are going up, investors should increasingly be looking at a company’s ability to maintain margin.

“Investors should be paying close attention to margin because it can indicate how well a company is managing costs and competing in its industry.

“It can also impact a corporation’s ability to invest in growth opportunities or pay dividends” to shareholders.

“A good fund manager will help investors seek out the opportunities and mitigate potential risks as and when they are presented to generate and build their wealth.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “As concerns about the stability of banks persist, we expect further and intensifying market volatility. This will be used, as it always is, by investors to bolster their investment portfolios.

“This can prove to be an extremely effective strategy, but advice should be sought from a quality fund manager.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

24 Mar

Murrey Math Lines 24.03.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

Brent

On H4, Brent quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, revealing the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI has broken the support line. In such circumstances, we should expect 0/8 (75.00) to break and the price to go down to the support at -1/8 (71.88). The scenario can be canceled if the price grows to the resistance at 2/8 (81.25).

On M15, a new breakaway of the lower line of the VoltyChannel indicator will increase the probability of further falling of the price.

S&P 500

A similar situation has formed on the S&P 500 chart. On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, while the RSI has broken the support line. As a result, we expect the level of 1/8 (3945.3) to break and the price to fall to the support level of -1/8 (3867.2). The scenario can be canceled if the price rises above the resistance at 2/8 (3984.4), which might lead to a trend reversal and growth of the S&P 500 index to 3/8 (4023.4).

On M15, the decline in the price can be additionally supported by a breakaway of the lower line of VoltyChannel.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.