InvestMacro

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.17% at Friday’s close, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.05%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.18% on Monday.

Goldman Sachs joins Barclays in predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates significantly this year. But the latest futures position data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that hedge funds expect the Fed to keep rates higher longer.

A report from the New York Federal Reserve showed Monday that bank stresses that began in March had little impact on American sentiment. The Federal Reserve regional bank reported in its April survey of consumer expectations that respondents forecast inflation after one year at 4.4%, up from 4.7% in the March survey. The report also showed that respondents’ perceptions of the current financial situation improved in April, while their expectations for the year worsened. Respondents indicated they expect unemployment to rise and to be more likely to lose their jobs, as well as difficulty finding a new job.

The PacWest stock jumped by 5% on Monday. The company announced a dividend cut from 25 cents to 1 cent per share late Friday night. PacWest CEO Paul Taylor assured investors that the bank’s business remains “fundamentally sound.” Concerns about regional banks have not subsided since regulators took over the First Republic last week, leading to the US bank’s third collapse since early March. Rapidly rising interest rates have put pressure on banks with long-term bonds, causing deposit outflows.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.05%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.11% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 index (ES35) was up 0.70%, Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) was not trading Monday.

The European Central Bank should keep raising interest rates amid “too high” core inflation levels, ECB Governing Council spokesman Klaas Knot said over the weekend. The ECB will have to raise borrowing costs “until core inflation is suppressed.” Last week, the eurozone central bank raised its deposit rate by a quarter point to 3.25%, and ECB President Christine Lagarde also signaled that more interest rate hikes are likely.

Oil prices are up more than 2% as recession fears begin to fade. Fears of a recession are easing the risks of lower demand. Typically, oil demand rises in the run-up to summer as more travel occurs. And with OPEC+ countries still cutting production on a daily basis, black gold prices are projected to rise for the next three months. Analysts at Commerzbank say concerns about oil demand are exaggerated and expect prices to rise in the coming weeks.

Asian markets were mostly on the rise yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 0.71%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 1.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.24% over the day, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) increased by 1.08%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 0.78%.

Continued soft monetary policy from the Bank of Japan is fueling a rally in Japanese markets, with the Nikkei 225 largely outperforming its global peers on the prospect of soft monetary conditions.

China’s latest trade balance data showed an increase in exports and a drop in imports. This suggests that local demand remains weak, which may prevent a more significant economic recovery this year. The prospect of weak demand in China does not bode well for Asian markets, which depend on the country as an export destination.

Australia recorded its first budget surplus in 15 years as its treasury was bolstered by unanticipated tax revenue from higher commodity prices and wages. The budget projected a small surplus of about A$4 billion ($2.71 billion) for the fiscal year ending in June. At the same time, deficit estimates for subsequent years have been revised downward.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,138.12 +1.87 (+0.045%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,618.69 −55.69 (−0.17%)

DAX (DE40) 15,952.83 −8.19 (−0.051%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,778.38 +75.74 (+0.98%)

USD Index 101.41 +0.20 +0.19%

• – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:05 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By JustMarkets 

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.65% (-1.30% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 1.85% (-0.73% for the week). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.25% on Friday (+0.21% for the week). Investor fears that the economy is headed for a recession in the second half of the year bolstered bets that interest rates will soon decline.

Friday’s data showed that the US economy added 253,000 jobs (forecast +181,000). The unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. The unexpected rise in US hiring and payrolls last month makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates high longer and possibly keep the possibility of an 11th straight hike in June.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Friday that he is willing to be “open-minded” about whether to raise rates or leave them unchanged at the Fed’s June meeting, joining the “data-dependent” position. Bullard said he thinks the 5% to 5.25% rate level reached this week is still at the “lower end” of what might be needed; his own projections suggest that rates may need to rise another half a point for inflation to decline steadily. The US inflation data in the coming week will give an indication of whether the Federal Reserve can halt its series of interest rate hikes at next month’s meeting.

Deposits at US commercial banks fell to their lowest level in nearly two years by the end of April, data released Friday by the Federal Reserve showed. Total lending by banks rose, driven by record levels of outstanding loans and leases.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. German DAX (DE30) gained 1.44% (+0.48% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added 1.26% on Friday (-0.88% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.11% (-2.06% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up 0.98% (-0.68% for the week).

The European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates until inflation is under control, two ECB officials said Friday. French central bank governor François Villrois de Galleau and his Lithuanian counterpart Gediminas Simkus confirmed the ECB’s intention to raise borrowing costs even further. Data on Friday also showed that Eurozone retail sales fell more than expected in March, signaling a cooling of demand.

Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by 3.9% in the first quarter thanks to non-oil activity. The IMF reports that the Saudi economy grew by 8.7% last year but forecasts that Saudi GDP growth will increase by 3.1% this year.

Gold fell back from record highs amid signs that the Fed may raise rates again in June. Gold has an inverse correlation to government bond yields, which depend on the dollar index. A rise in interest rates causes the dollar and government bond yields to rise, which is negative for gold and silver. But the medium-term outlook for gold for the rest of the year remains bullish, as the US Federal Reserve is in the final phase of its tightening cycle.

Asian markets have gained substantially over the past week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.39%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.37%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.50%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) jumped by 0.96%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 0.37%.

On Friday, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) imposed additional capital requirements on DBS Bank, the banking arm of the country’s largest lender, DBS Group, after disruptions to its banking services in recent months.

The Australian government intends to lower its inflation forecasts and also forecasts a longer unemployment decline in the 2023/24 budget, which should lead to a much-needed rise in real wages. Unemployment is forecast at 3.5% at the end of the second quarter.

In the commodities market, futures on cotton (+4.03%), wheat (+3.94%), silver (+2.79%), and corn (+2.09%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on natural gas (-12.32%), WTI oil (-7.11%), Brent oil (-6.17%), and lumber (-2.15%) showed the largest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,136.25 +75.03 (+1.85%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,674.38 +546.64 (+1.65%)

DAX (DE40) 15,961.02 +226.78 (+1.44%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,778.38 +75.74 (+0.98%)

USD Index 101.28 -0.12 -0.12%

• – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
• – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Rachel Goldsmith Turow, Seattle University 

Mindfulness and self-compassion are now buzzwords for self-improvement. But in fact, a growing body of research shows these practices can lead to real mental health benefits. This research – ongoing, voluminous and worldwide – clearly shows how and why these two practices work.

One effective way to cultivate mindfulness and self-compassion is through meditation.

For more than 20 years, as a clinical psychologist, research scientist and educator, I taught meditation to students and clinical patients and took a deep dive into the research literature. My recent book, “The Self-Talk Workout: Six Science-Backed Strategies to Dissolve Self-Criticism and Transform the Voice in Your Head,” highlights much of that research.

I learned even more when I evaluated mental health programs and psychology classes that train participants in mindfulness and compassion-based techniques.

Defining mindfulness and self-compassion

Mindfulness means purposefully paying attention to the present moment with an attitude of interest or curiosity rather than judgment.

Self-compassion involves being kind and understanding toward yourself, even during moments of suffering or failure.

Both are associated with greater well-being.

But don’t confuse self-compassion with self-esteem or self-centeredness, or assume that it somehow lowers your standards, motivation or productivity. Instead, research shows that self-compassion is linked with greater motivation, less procrastination and better relationships.

Be patient when starting a meditation practice

I didn’t like meditation – the specific practice sessions that train mindfulness and self-compassion – the first time I tried it as a college student in the late ‘90s. I felt like a failure when my mind wandered, and I interpreted that as a sign that I couldn’t do it.

In both my own and others’ meditation practices, I’ve noticed that the beginning is often rocky and full of doubt, resistance and distraction.

But what seem like impediments can actually enhance meditation practice, because the mental work of handling them builds strength.

For the first six months I meditated, my body and mind were restless. I wanted to get up and do other tasks. But I didn’t. Eventually it became easier to notice my urges and thoughts without acting upon them. I didn’t get as upset with myself.

After about a year of consistent meditation, my mind seemed more organized and controllable; it no longer got stuck in self-critical loops. I felt a sense of kindness or friendliness toward myself in everyday moments, as well as during joyful or difficult experiences. I enjoyed ordinary activities more, such as walking or cleaning.

It took a while to understand that anytime you sit down and try to meditate, that’s meditation. It is a mental process, rather than a destination.

How meditation works on the mind

Just having a general intention to be more mindful or self-compassionate is unlikely to work.

Most programs shown to make meaningful differences involve at least seven sessions. Studies show these repeated workouts improve attention skills and decrease rumination, or repeated negative thinking.

They also lessen self-criticism, which is linked to numerous mental health difficulties, including depression, anxiety, eating disorders, self-harm and post-traumatic stress disorder.

Meditation is not just about sustaining your attention – it’s also about shifting and returning your focus after the distraction. The act of shifting and refocusing cultivates attention skills and decreases rumination.

Trying repeatedly to refrain from self-judgment during the session will train your mind to be less self-critical.

An interconnected group of brain regions called the default mode network is strikingly affected by meditation. Much of this network’s activity reflects repetitive thinking, such as a rehash of a decadeslong tension with your sister. It’s most prominent when you’re not doing much of anything. Activity of the default mode network is related to rumination, unhappiness and depression.

Research shows that just one month of meditation reduces the noise of the default mode network. The type of meditation practice doesn’t seem to matter.

Establishing the formal practice

A common misconception about mindfulness is that it’s simply a way to relax or clear the mind. Rather, it means intentionally paying attention to your experiences in a nonjudgmental way.

Consider meditation the formal part of your practice – that is, setting aside a time to work on specific mindfulness and self-compassion techniques.

Cultivating mindfulness with meditation often involves focusing on paying attention to the breath. A common way to start practice is to sit in a comfortable place and bring attention to your breathing, wherever you feel it most strongly.

At some point, probably after a breath or two, your mind will wander to another thought or feeling. As soon as you notice that, you can bring your attention back to the breath and try not to judge yourself for losing focus for five to 10 minutes.

When I was just getting started meditating, I would have to redirect my attention dozens or hundreds of times in a 20-to-30-minute session. Counting 10 breaths, and then another 10, and so on, helped me link my mind to the task of paying attention to my breathing.

The most well-established technique for cultivating self-compassion is called loving-kindness meditation. To practice, you can find a comfortable position, and for at least five minutes, internally repeat phrases such as, “May I be safe. May I be happy. May I be healthy. May I live with ease.”

When your attention wanders, you can bring it back with as little self-judgment as possible and continue repeating the phrases. Then, if you like, offer the same well wishes to other people or to all beings.

Every time you return your focus to your practice without judging, you’re flexing your mental awareness, because you noticed your mind wandered. You also improve your capacity to shift attention, a valuable anti-rumination skill, and your nonjudgment, an antidote to self-criticism.

These practices work. Studies show that brain activity during meditation results in less self-judgment, depression and anxiety and results in less rumination.

Mindfulness also occurs when you tune into present-moment sensations, such as tasting your food or washing the dishes.

An ongoing routine of formal and informal practice can transform your thinking. And again, doing it once in a while won’t help as much. It’s like situps: A single situp isn’t likely to strengthen your abdominal muscles, but doing several sets each day will.

Meditation reduces self-criticism

Studies show that mindfulness meditation and loving-kindness meditation reduce self-criticism, which leads to better mental health, including lower levels of depression, anxiety and PTSD. After an eight-week mindfulness program, participants experienced less self-judgment. These changes were linked with decreases in depression and anxiety.

One final point: Beginning meditators may find that self-criticism gets worse before it gets better.

After years or decades of habitual self-judgment, people often judge themselves harshly about losing focus during meditation. But once students get through the first few weeks of practice, the self-judgment begins to abate, both about meditation and about oneself in general.

As one of my students recently said after several weeks of mindfulness meditation: “I am more stable, more able to detach from unhelpful thoughts and can do all of this while being a little more compassionate and loving toward myself.”

About the Author:

Rachel Goldsmith Turow, Adjunct Assistant Professor in Population Health Science and Policy, Seattle University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

By ForexTime 

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com