Do NQ100_m bears have a chance as NFP looms?

By ForexTime

  • NQ100_m shaky ahead of Friday’s US NFP
  • Momentum Oscillator reveals a negative divergence
  • Prices could hit 3 possible targets if 14699.6 higher bottom is breached
  • Bearish outlook invalidated if resistance at 15294.0 is broken

The NQ100_m index has been dominated by bulls since April, but bears may have a chance to take over the reigns as a lower top has formed at a strong weekly resistance level. Hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting could support Nasdaq bears further, especially after it reinforced expectations around US rates staying higher for longer.

On the technical front, the NQ100_m created a higher bottom on 26 June at 14699.6 and a higher top on 16 June at 15300.5. Interestingly, the Momentum Oscillator also reveals a negative divergence between points “a” and “b” when comparing the tops at 14673.9 and 15300.5. This may alert technical traders that a momentum change could be on the cards.

Further confirmation was the market breaking through the 15 Simple Moving Average and the Momentum Oscillator starting to drop closer to the 100 baseline in a downward wave pattern.

If bears manage to break through the support level formed by the last higher bottom at 14699.6, then three possible price targets might be realized from there. Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the higher bottom at 14699.6 and dragging it to the lower top at 15294.0, the following targets can be determined:

  • The first target can be estimated at 14332.3 (161.8%) if the price manages to break through a weekly support level at 14506.4.

  • The second price target can be expected at 13737.9 (261.8%) which is on a next weekly support level at 13757.8

  • The third and final target can be anticipated at 12776.1 (423.6%). 

If the resistance level at 15294.0 is broken, the current scenario is no longer valid. 

As long as bears keep pulling the market downwards they have a chance to cause an early stage of a new downtrend on the NQ100_m D1 time frame.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Right-to-charge laws bring the promise of EVs to apartments, condos and rentals

By Eleftheria Kontou, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 

More than 3.6 million electric cars are driving around the U.S., but if you live in an apartment, finding an available charger isn’t always easy. Grocery stores and shopping centers might have a few, but charging takes time and the spaces may be taken or inconvenient.

Several states and cities, aiming to expand EV use, are now trying to lift that barrier to ownership with “right to charge” laws.

Illinois’ governor signed the latest right-to-charge law in June 2023, requiring that all parking spots at new homes and multiunit dwellings be wired so they’re ready for EV chargers to be installed. Colorado, Florida, New York and other states have passed similar laws in recent years.

But having wiring in place for charging is only the first step to expanding EV use. Apartment building managers, condo associations and residents are now trying to figure out how to make charging efficient, affordable and available to everyone who needs it when they need it.

Electric cars can benefit urban dwellers

As a civil engineer who focuses on transportation, I study ways to make the shift to electric vehicles equitable, and I believe that planning for multiunit dwelling charging and accessibility is smart policy for cities.

Transitioning away from fossil-fueled vehicles to electric vehicles has benefits for the environment and the health of urban residents. It reduces tailpipe emissions, which can cause respiratory problems and warm the climate; it mitigates noise; and it improves urban air quality and quality of life.

Surveys show most EV drivers charge at home, where electricity rates are lower than at public chargers and there is less competition for charging spots. In California, the leading state for EVs, 88% of early adopters of battery electric cars said they were able to charge at home, and workplace and public charging represented just 24% and 17% of their charging sessions, respectively. Nationwide, about 50% to 80% of all battery electric car charging sessions take place at home.

Yet almost a quarter of all U.S. housing structures have more than one dwelling unit, according to the 2019 American Housing Survey. In California, 32.5% of urban dwellings have multiple units, and only a third of those units include access to a personal garage where a charger could be installed.

Even if installing a personal charger is an option, it can be expensive in a multiunit dwelling if wiring isn’t already in place. And it often comes with other obstacles, including the potential need for electrical upgrades or challenges from homeowner association rules and restrictions. Installing chargers can involve numerous stakeholders who can impede the process – lot owners, tenants, homeowners associations, property managers, electric utilities and local governments.

However, if a 240-volt outlet is already available, basic charger installation drops to a few hundred dollars.

Right-to-charge laws aims for ubiquitous home charging

Right-to-charge laws aim to streamline home charging access as new buildings go up.

Illinois’ new Electric Vehicle Charging Act requires that 100% of parking spaces at new homes and multiunit dwellings be ready for electric car charging, with a conduit and reserved capacity to easily install charging infrastructure. The new law also gives renters and condominium owners in new buildings a right to install chargers without unreasonable restriction from landlords and homeowner associations.

California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Virginia also have right-to-charge laws designed to make residential community charging deployment easier, as do several U.S. cities including Seattle and Washington, D.C. Most apply only to owner-occupied buildings, but a few, including California’s and Colorado’s, also apply to rental buildings.

Chicago officials have considered an ordinance that would include existing buildings, too.

Sharing chargers can reduce the cost

There are several steps communities can take to increase access to chargers and reduce the cost to residents.

In a new study, colleagues and I looked at how to design shared charging for an apartment building with scheduling that works for everyone. By sharing chargers, residential communities can reduce the costs associated with charger installation and use.

The biggest challenge to shared charging is often scheduling. We found that a centralized charging management system that suggests charging times for each electric car owner that aligns with the owner’s travel schedule and the amount of charge needed can work – with enough chargers.

In a typical multiunit dwelling in Chicago – with an average of 14 cars in the parking lot – a small community charging hub with two level 2 chargers, the type common in homes and office buildings, can cover daily residential recharging demand at a cost of about 15 cents per kilowatt-hour. But having only two chargers means residents are waiting on average 2.2 hours to charge.

A larger charging hub with eight level 2 chargers in the same city avoids the delay but increases the cost of charging to 21 cents per kWh because of upfront cost of purchasing and installing the chargers. To put that into context, the average electricity cost for Chicago residents is 16 cents per kWh.

The future of charging management at multiunit dwellings will be automated for efficiency, with a computer or artificial intelligence determining the most efficient schedule for charging. Optimized scheduling can be responsive to the times renewable electricity generation sources are producing the most power – midday for solar energy, for example – and to dynamic electricity pricing. Automation can also eliminate delays for drivers while saving money and reducing the burden on the electric grid.

The current limited access to home charging in many cities constrains electric vehicle adoption, slows down the decarbonization of U.S. transportation and exacerbates inequities in electric vehicle ownership. I believe efforts to expand charging in multidwelling buildings can help lift some of the biggest barriers and help reduce noise and pollution in urban cores at the same time.The Conversation

About the Author:

Eleftheria Kontou, Assistant Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

3 Auto Giants Caught in Recall Chaos: Stocks at Stake!

By Ino.com

Benjamin Franklin once said, “If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.” While the thought has stood the test of time, with time, businesses have also realized that planning for accidental (yet inevitable) failure is also a failure to plan.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently issued multiple recalls, with three auto giants scrambling for cover and damage limitation.
Ford Motor Company (F) is recalling 979,797 of its vehicles for not having instructions on adjusting or removing certain head restraints in the owner’s manual. These include certain 2018-2023 Expedition and Lincoln Navigator models that have third-row seating, 2019-2023 F-Super Duty F-250, F-350, F-450, F-550, and F-600 SuperCab vehicles along with three-passenger front bench seat regular cab models.

In addition, the company has also recalled 16,375 select 2022-2023 F-150 BEV vehicles for a rear lightbar issue in which the lightbar may have micro-cracks in its outer lens, allowing moisture to collect, which could result in out-of-order or flickering reverse lights.

Hyundai Motor Company (HYMTF) is recalling 322 of its 2023 Palisade vehicles for a potential issue in which the brake booster diaphragm may become misaligned and cause an internal vacuum leak in the vehicle, potentially leading to a loss of power brake assist.

Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (NSANY) is recalling 230 2022 Sentra vehicles for a potential missing or improper seal in the driver’s side cowl area. This can allow water to leak inside the vehicle and corrode electrical components, which could lead to the failure of electrical systems and increase the risk of a crash and an electrical short-circuit, potentially increasing the risk of a fire.

In all three cases mentioned above of oversight, corrective actions are being taken by the concerned companies through their dealer networks free of additional cost to the customer.

However, since resources that could have been utilized to meet planned business objectives need to be diverted to execute these unplanned corrections, let’s understand the ever-growing incidents of product recall and their impact on businesses and (by extension) their stock prices.

A product recall is a process of retrieving and replacing defective goods, with the concerned company or manufacturer assuming the responsibility and absorbing the cost of replacing and fixing defective products or reimbursing affected consumers, as per consumer protection laws.

With the spread of globalization, businesses expanded and diversified their supply chains globally through offshoring and outsourcing to remain cost competitive, although often at the cost of the reliability or quality of their end products or services.

Moreover, an offering, or a component of the same, must comply with the regulations of both the country of its origin and the market in which it is supposed to be distributed. Hence, even if a product passes regulations in China, it might not be under U.S. laws. It would, therefore, have to be recalled.

Government agencies, such as the NHTSA, are responsible for testing products and recognizing faulty ones before they reach the market. With the increasing complexity of global supply chains and the frequency of tests, product recalls have also increased in frequency.

Since brand equity is built on trust and confidence, recalls can tarnish a company’s reputation, translating into financial losses and consequent erosion of market capitalization. Moreover, although insurance may cover a minimal amount to replace defective products, several recalls result in lawsuits that could further dent a company’s prospects.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: 3 Auto Giants Caught in Recall Chaos: Stocks at Stake!

Investors now have responsibility to consider ESG as global temps hit record high

By George Prior 

As global temperatures hit a record high, every investor now has a responsibility to consider environmental, social and governance (ESG) investments, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The comments from Nigel Green of deVere Group come as it is revealed that Monday was the world’s hottest day on record, exceeding an average of 17 degrees Celsius (62.6 degrees Fahrenheit) for the first time, according to official measurements taken on Tuesday by US meteorologists.

“This is not a milestone we should be celebrating, it’s a death sentence for people and ecosystems,” said Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment.

The deVere CEO says: “The new record high shines a spotlight on the extreme temperatures engulfing the northern hemisphere this summer, and underscores the lack of global progress on tackling climate change – which is the biggest critical issue of our time.

“Monday, 3 July 2023, the hottest day ever recorded globally, must act as a wake-up call that more must urgently be done to battle the worst effect of human-driven environmental issues.

“As such, I believe that every investor now has a responsibility to consider ESG investments.”

But the enormously positive environmental and social impact you can have with ESG investments is not the only reason why you should consider them as part of your portfolio.

“Numerous studies have demonstrated that companies with strong ESG practices tend to outperform their peers over the long term.

“By incorporating ESG investments, investors have the opportunity to participate in the growth of companies that are well-positioned to navigate risks, capitalise on emerging opportunities, and drive sustainable innovation,” notes Nigel Green.

ESG factors provide valuable insights into a company’s resilience and risk management practices.

He continues: “By considering environmental risks, such as climate change and resource scarcity, social risks related to labor practices and community engagement, and governance risks such as board diversity and transparency, you can better assess the long-term viability of investments and reduce exposure to potential risks.”

The deVere CEO goes on to add: “The global regulatory landscape is evolving. Investors who proactively integrate ESG investments into their portfolios can navigate regulatory changes more effectively and position themselves for future market shifts.

“Plus, as ESG considerations become mainstream, investments in companies with strong ESG profiles are likely to attract more attention from institutional and individual investors.

“All of the reasons and all the evidence suggest that ESG-focused investors can achieve both profitability and positive impact.”

deVere Group practices what it preaches. In 2021, it became one of 18 founding signatories of the UN-backed Net Zero initiative, the international alliance of finance powerhouses that will help accelerate the transition to a net-zero financial system.

As a global organisation, it recognises the transformative potential of ESG investments and is committed to helping investors integrate these strategies into their portfolios.

With a team of experienced professionals and a comprehensive suite of ESG-focused investment solutions, deVere provides clients with tailored advice and cutting-edge research to optimise their financial goals while aligning their investments with their values.

“The hottest day ever recorded globally tells investors now is the time to consider putting your money to work for both profits and positive change. If not now, when?” concludes the deVere Group CEO.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, LTC). Overview for 05.07.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC price rose to 30,831 USD by Wednesday.

The flagship cryptocurrency is currently fully implementing the previously outlined trend with consolidation above 31,150 USD and a further climb to 33,000 USD.

The bullish scenario is supported by a new application for licensing submitted by the BlackRock fund to the SEC. The fund attempts to launch a BTC-based ETF. The potential impact of this venture, if approved, cannot be underestimated. With a significant volume of assets under BlackRock’s management, a portion of these could potentially be invested in cryptocurrency.

The capitalisation of the cryptocurrency market remains steady at USD 1.210 trillion. The share of BTC rose to 49.6%, while the share of ETH fell to 19.3%.

Miners have sent 54,000 BTC to Binance

Over the past three weeks, miners have deposited about 54,000 BTC coins into the largest crypto exchange, thereby contributing to the growing volume of assets on the exchanges. At the same time, there haven’t been any significant changes in the open interest for BTCUSD.

LTC halving event is approaching

The next halving of LTC will take place on 3 August 2023. The market expects a significant price correction for the altcoin following the event, or at least this is what the history of similar price fluctuations suggests.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

China’s economic recovery is slowing. OPEC+ countries to agree on new oil production quotas today

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices did not trade yesterday due to a bank holiday.

According to the OECD, inflation in advanced economies has slowed to its lowest since December 2021. Inflation has slowed in almost all countries except the Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom. In the G7 countries, inflation is now at 4.6%, the lowest level since September 2021. The figures show that core inflation remains steady, even though monetary officials make some progress in controlling consumer prices. Policymakers in advanced economies are still in a tightening mode, with both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank signaling another increase in borrowing costs this month.

The June FOMC minutes will be released today. Investors will be looking for clues as to how far the US Fed can go in terms of raising rates. More than 85% of traders believe the US Fed will raise interest rates this month, and only 37% think the rate will be raised again in September.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down on Tuesday. German DAX (DE30) was 0.26% lower, French CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.23%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.63%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) was 0.10% lower yesterday.

The Bank of England is considering plans to force more international banks to create subsidiaries in the UK. Analysts believe the move would make it easier for the Bank of England to seize control of subsidiaries such as SVB in London in the event of a collapse.

After the latest inflation figures, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced his full support for the Bank of England but criticized Governor Andrew Bailey. In his January speech, the prime minister said that the promise to halve inflation was his personal responsibility, but if the UK Consumer Price Index remains stubbornly high for the rest of the year, many expect that the Bank of England may see a change in leadership.

Ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, key export giant Saudi Arabia announced Monday that production cuts of one million barrels a day would be extended for another month. Meanwhile, Russia said it would cut exports by 500,000 BPD in August. Normally news of production cuts by two such important players would provide additional support to oil prices. Nevertheless, the demand side still looks weak for the global oil market. This week’s key economic data from manufacturing sectors around the world was disappointing from China, Europe and the United States. As central banks are raising interest rates almost across the board to combat high inflation, lower economic activity is now effectively the goal of monetary policy.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.97%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.57% on the day, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive by 0.45% on Tuesday.

China’s abrupt announcement on Monday that it will impose export controls on certain types of gallium and germanium, effective August 1, escalated a trade war with the US and could potentially lead to new disruptions in global supply chains. Analysts viewed the move, which the Chinese Commerce Ministry said was aimed at protecting national security, as a response to Washington’s escalating efforts to curb China’s technological advances. China is the world’s largest producer of rare earth elements, a group of metals used in electric vehicles and military technology.

A private survey showed Wednesday that China’s services sector grew less than expected in June, raising fears of a slowdown in the country’s economic recovery. The figure follows a weak reading on manufacturing activity and points to a slowdown in growth in the second quarter. Nevertheless, analysts believe China’s weak data could attract additional stimulus measures from Beijing after liquidity injections and interest rate cuts earlier this year.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,455.59 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,418.47 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 16,039.17 −41.87 (−0.26%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,519.72 −7.54 (−0.10%)

USD Index 103.09 0 (0%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – OPEC Meetings at 13:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Technical Outlook: FX & Commodity Mashup

By ForexTime 

  • EURUSD remains a choppy affair
  • GBPUSD waits for fresh spark
  • Time for USDJPY to push higher?
  • USDCAD in breakout mode
  • Gold approaches resistance

The market mood was mixed on Tuesday as investors turned cautious ahead of another busy week for global financial markets. Despite US markets currently closed due to the Independence Day holiday, volatility could still be the name of the game thanks to top-tier economic reports and risk events.

Here are some technical setups to keep an eye on ahead of the Fed minutes tomorrow and the US NFP report released on Friday:

Dollar on standby

The dollar remains on standby with prices trading around 103.00 as of writing. Should bulls jump back into the driver’s seat, prices could challenge 103.50, 103.80, and 104.00. Alternatively, a decline below 103.00 may see bears attack 102.35 and 102.00, respectively.

EURUSD choppy affair…

The EURUSD remains within a messy range on the daily charts with support at 1.0850 and resistance at 1.1010. A solid breakdown below 1.0850 could see prices challenge 1.0760. Should prices break above 1.1010, an incline toward 1.0900 could be on the cards.

GBPUSD waits for fresh catalyst

Sterling remains trapped within a range with support at 1.2600 and resistance at 1.2730. A strong breakout above 1.2730 could open the doors toward 1.2850. Should prices sink below 1.2600, bears could challenge 1.2550 and 1.2420.

USDJPY remains bullish

Despite consolidating over the past few days, the USDJPY remains in a healthy uptrend on the daily charts. Further upside could be expected if a solid daily close above 145.50 is achieved. If bulls run out of steam, this could lead to a decline back towards 142.30.

AUDUSD capped below 0.6680?

The AUDUSD could sink lower if prices fail to push above the 0.6690 resistance. Earlier this morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 4.1% which caused prices to retreat. However, bulls seem to be lingering in the vicinity with the Aussie back around the 0.6690 level where the 100 and 200-day SMA resides. Sustained weakness below this point may trigger a selloff back towards 0.6630 and 0.6570. Should prices breakout and secure a daily close above this point, bulls may propel prices toward 0.6760.

USDCAD in breakout mode

The USDCAD be gearing up for a breakout this week as prices trade between support at 1.3140 and resistance at 1.3280. A breakout above 1.3280 could signal an incline toward 1.3400. Should prices slip back below 1.3140, the next key level of interest can be found at 1.3000.

WTI Crude rangebound

It feels like the same old story for WTI Crude with prices trading within a range on the daily charts. Support can be found at $67.00 and resistance at $74.40. Oil prices may react to the 8th OPEC International Seminar featuring OPEC+ ministers on Wednesday. A move below $67.00 could see prices hit $64.50. Alternatively, a breakout above $74.40 could open a path toward $76.80.

Gold approaches resistance

Gold prices have pushed higher, challenging the $1932 resistance level. A breakout above this point may see $1959. Should $1932 prove to be reliable resistance, prices may decline back toward $1900.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world – and that doesn’t bode well for its economy

By Dudley L. Poston Jr., Texas A&M University 

Around the world, nations are looking at the prospect of shrinking, aging populations – but none more so than South Korea.

Over the last 60 years, South Korea has undergone the most rapid fertility decline in recorded human history. In 1960, the nation’s total fertility rate – the number of children, on average, that a woman has during her reproductive years – stood at just under six children per woman. In 2022, that figure was 0.78. South Korea is the only country in the world to register a fertility rate of less than one child per woman, although others – Ukraine, China and Spain – are close.

As a demographer who over the past four decades has conducted extensive research on Asian populations, I know that this prolonged and steep decline will have huge impacts on South Korea. It may slow down economic growth, contributing to a shift that will see the country end up less rich and with a smaller population.

Older, poorer, more dependent

Countries need a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman to replace their population, when the effects of immigration and emigration aren’t considered. And South Korea’s fertility rate has been consistently below that number since 1984, when it dropped to 1.93, from 2.17 the year before.

What makes the South Korean fertility rate decline more astonishing is the relatively short period in which it has occurred.

Back in 1800, the U.S. total fertility rate was well over 6.0. But it took the U.S. around 170 years to consistently drop below the replacement level. Moreover, in the little over 60 years in which South Korea’s fertility rate fell from 6.0 to 0.8, the U.S. saw a more gradual decline from 3.0 to 1.7.

Fertility decline can have a positive effect in certain circumstances, via something demographers refer to as “the demographic dividend.” This dividend refers to accelerated increases in a country’s economy that follow a decline in birth rates and subsequent changes in its age composition that result in more working-age people and fewer dependent young children and elderly people.

And that is what happened in South Korea – a decline in fertility helped convert South Korea from a very poor country to a very rich one.

Behind the economic miracle

South Korea’s fertility decline began in the early 1960s when the government adopted an economic planning program and a population and family planning program.

By that time, South Korea was languishing, having seen its economy and society destroyed by the Korean War of 1950 to 1953. Indeed by the late-1950s, South Korea was one of the poorest countries in the world. In 1961, its annual per capita income was only about US$82.

But dramatic increases in economic growth began in 1962, when the South Korean government introduced a five-year economic development plan.

Crucially, the government also introduced a population planning program in a bid to bring down the nation’s fertility rate. This included a goal of getting 45% of married couples to use contraception – until then, very few Koreans used contraception.

This further contributed to the fertility reduction, as many couples realized that having fewer children would often lead to improvements in family living standards.

Both the economic and family planning programs were instrumental in moving South Korea from one with a high fertility rate to one with a low fertility rate.

As a result, the country’s dependent population – the young and the elderly – grew smaller in relation to its working-age population.

The demographic change kick-started economic growth that continued well into the mid-1990s. Increases in productivity, combined with an increasing labor force and a gradual reduction of unemployment, produced average annual growth rates in gross domestic product of between 6% and 10% for many years.

South Korea today is one of the richest countries
in the world with a per capita income of $35,000.

Losing people every year

Much of this transformation of South Korea from a poor country to a rich country has been due to the demographic dividend realized during the country’s fertility decline. But the demographic dividend only works in the short term. Long-term fertility declines are often disastrous for a nation’s economy.

With an extremely low fertility rate of 0.78, South Korea is losing population each year and experiencing more deaths than births. The once-vibrant nation is on the way to becoming a country with lots of elderly people and fewer workers.

The Korean Statistical Office reported recently that the country lost population in the past three years: It was down by 32,611 people in 2020, 57,118 in 2021 and 123,800 in 2022.

If this trend continues, and if the country doesn’t welcome millions of immigrants, South Korea’s present population of 51 million will drop to under 38 million in the next four or five decades.

And a growing proportion of the society will be over the age of 65.

South Korea’s population aged 65 and over comprised under 7% of the population in 2000. Today, nearly 17% of South Koreans are older people.

The older people population is projected to be 20% of the country by 2025 and could reach an unprecedented and astoundingly high 46% in 2067. South Korea’s working-age population will then be smaller in size than its population of people over the age of 65.

In a bid to avert a demographic nightmare, the South Korean government is providing financial incentives for couples to have children and is boosting the monthly allowance already in place for parents. President Yoon Suk Yeol has also established a new government team to establish policies to increase the birth rate.

But to date, programs to increase the low fertility rate have had little effect. Since 2006, the South Korean government has already spent over $200 billion in programs to increase the birth rate, with virtually no impact.

Opening the trapdoor

The South Korean fertility rate has not increased in the past 16 years. Rather, it has continued to decrease. This is due to what demographers refer to as the “low-fertility trap.” The principle, set forth by demographers in the early 2000s, states that once a country’s fertility rate drops below 1.5 or 1.4, it is difficult – if not impossible – to increase it significantly.

South Korea, along with many other countries – including France, Australia and Russia – have developed policies to encourage fertility rate increases, but with little to no success.

The only real way for South Korea to turn this around would be to rely heavily on immigration.

Migrants are typically young and productive and usually have more children than the native-born population. But South Korea has a very restrictive immigration policy with no path for immigrants to become citizens or permanent residents unless they marry South Koreans.

Indeed, the foreign-born population in 2022 was just over 1.6 million, which is around 3.1% of the population. In contrast, the U.S. has always relied on immigration to bolster its working population, with foreign-born residents now comprising over 14% of the population.

For immigration to offset South Korea’s declining fertility rate, the number of foreign workers would likely need to rise almost tenfold.

Without that, South Korea’s demographic destiny will have the nation continuing to lose population every year and becoming one of the oldest – if not the oldest – country in the world.The Conversation

About the Author:

Dudley L. Poston Jr., Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Welsh mining towns had alternative currencies 200 years ago – here’s what the crypto world could learn from them

By Edward Thomas Jones, Bangor University and Laurence Jones, Bangor University 

You can also read this article in Welsh.

The global cryptocurrency market has seen a number of recent setbacks: from the collapse of the Terra/Luna system in May 2022 to the failure of FTX, one of the largest crypto exchanges in the world.

Because of these factors, and other concerns over cryptocurrencies’ carbon emissions, these assets lost US$2 trillion in value (£1.5 trillion) in 2022.

But while cryptocurrencies get a lot of attention today, in some ways they are not a revolutionary concept. Hundreds of years ago, workers in Wales were often paid with alternative currencies instead of money.

These currencies were physical tokens that represented and were linked to the value of real money. Many cryptocurrencies work in a similar way, acting as digital tokens that represent a ledger of financial assets (this is known as “tokenisation”).

Digital currencies are also not reliant on any central authority, such as a government or bank, to uphold or maintain their network of exchange. Again, this is similar to how physical tokens were used by Welsh mining companies.

A halfpenny token issued by the Parys Mining Company of Anglesey in 1788. The hooded druid design was used for many years and was the first of hundreds of token designs.
BrandonBigheart/Wikimedia

Currency crisis

Towards the end of the 18th century the coinage of Britain was in a deplorable state due to the severe shortages of silver and copper coins. During the Industrial Revolution people migrated from the countryside into mining and manufacturing centres. But living in towns required money, and the ability to pay wages was impossible for businesses without small change.

With an influx of new workers using money, new shops were opened to meet demand, creating more jobs that required payment in coins. Although the production of counterfeit coins was illegal and punishable by death, it was not illegal to produce tokens with other designs which could be used instead of coins.

The first great era of token production during the first Industrial Revolution began in 1787 with the issue of the Parys Mining Company token. This company mined at Parys Mountain on the Welsh island of Anglesey. It briefly produced more copper than any other mine in the world during the Industrial Revolution.

A quarried landscape of brown and orange earth.
What Parys mountain on Anglesey looks like today. rhianjane/Pixabay

It also used the high-quality ore from its mine to produce tokens which could be exchanged for official coin at full value at any one of its shops or offices. This made the Parys Mining Company the first company in the world to issue tokens. These were described as the “premier tokens” of the 18th century by that era’s coin experts.

Soon, practically every town in Britain was producing its own tokens. This was driven in part by a shortage of government coinage and improvements in coin manufacturing by Matthew Boulton’s Soho Mint in Birmingham, who also turned his hand to tokens.

By the turn of the 19th century, the total supply and fast circulation of tokens, foreign coins and other substitutes probably exceeded those of the official coin of the country.

The process of tokenisation was subsequently seen in other countries, in particular the United States. Mining and logging camps in the 19th century US were typically owned and operated by a single company, often in remote locations with poor access to cash.

A close up of a silver coin on a green background.A Parys penny produced by the Parys Mining Company. Obscurasky/Wikimedia

These companies would often pay their workers in “scrip”, or tokens. The workers, given the limited places they could spend scrips, had little choice but to purchase goods at company-owned stores. By placing large mark ups on goods, the company could increase their profits and enforce employee loyalty.

While the production of tokens by the Parys Mining Company were spurred on by the first Industrial Revolution, the adoption and popularity of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has been hastened by the fourth Industrial Revolution.

Although they are more than 200 years apart, the history of these tokens have important lessons for today’s cryptocurrencies. First, for cryptocurrencies to succeed there needs to be various ways for individuals to accumulate the crypto/tokens, plus a demand and use for the crypto that means it holds its value, and trusted environments where exchange for goods and services can take place.

And second, for cryptocurrencies to be successful and sustainable in the long term they must uphold their original purpose of having an ecosystem that remains independent of a single company or government. Efforts to lock cryptocurrencies to a single organisation do not look positive, for example Facebook’s failed attempt to launch a cryptocurrency, announced in 2019.

The tokens of Welsh mining companies inherently failed when the closures of the mine or shops led to the removal of one or more of the three components of the ecosystem. And then people left with the tokens lost their money, a lesson for us today.The Conversation

About the Author:

Edward Thomas Jones, Senior Lecturer in Economics / Director of the Institute of European Finance, Bangor University and Laurence Jones, Lecturer in Finance, Bangor University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC). Overview for 03.07.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC exchange rate rose to 30,704 USD on Monday, with the flagship cryptocurrency gaining 1.4% during the week. Overall, last week was a relatively calm one for BTC.

From a fundamental perspective, the crypto sector has strong support from large funds. Previously, news emerged that Fidelity had filed another application with the SEC to create a spot fund ETF. The SEC has already received similar applications from BlackRock and others. However, later, the SEC announced that all these applications needed to be adjusted as they were not clear enough. The companies quickly responded by withdrawing their applications for modification. These things happen, there is nothing critical about them. It is positive that the SEC is actively engaging with businesses and is maintaining a dialogue at least at this level.

In addition, there is news about the launch of new ETHBTC futures by the CME platform.

The technical outlook remains favourable for a rise towards the 33,000 USD target.

The total capitalisation of the cryptocurrency market increased to 1.210 trillion USD. The share of BTC decreased to 49.4%, while the share of ETH rose to 19.4%.

Binance looks towards the UAE

Cryptocurrency exchange Binance is considering the UAE as the primary destination for the development of the digital asset industry. The country could become a key hub for the company’s core business in the future. Previously, Binance decided against listing anonymous tokens in several European countries.

MicroStrategy buys BTC

MicroStrategy, a provider of analytical software equipment, bought an additional 12,333 BTC between 29 April and 27 June. The transactions amounted to 347 million USD, meaning the average BTC price was 28,136 USD.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.