InvestMacro

Where I’m investing my money this summer: deVere CEO

By George Prior

Savvy investors around the world are using the ‘summer markets’ period to consider rebalancing their portfolios and, speaking in a recent social media post, the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations said this summer he’s investing in three key areas.

deVere Group’s Nigel Green, specifically, said he is increasing his investment exposure to semiconductors, energy, and Bitcoin.

He explains: “Many investors reduce their market activity during this summer, which leads to lower trading volumes and less liquidity, and this in turn traditionally creates price inefficiencies and increased volatility.

“When used effectively and efficiently, volatility can be an extremely powerful investment tool as you can enhance your portfolios with high quality assets at lower entry points.

“This year, the volatility could be heighted following a wave of central bank decisions last week which could suggest that a new era for monetary policy is on its way.”

Nigel Green continues: “Semiconductors are the building blocks of modern tech. They power a wide range of devices and applications, including smartphones, computers, automotive electronics, data centres, artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT) devices, and much more.

“As the world becomes ever-more digitalised and interconnected, the demand for semiconductor components will grow exponentially.

“In addition, due to the growing need for them, there’s a global race by governments for more advanced semiconductors and quicker and more resilient supply chains. As such, there will be a raft of substantial support packages to the industry.”

The second area which the deVere CEO is actively increasing exposure to this summer is energy.

He says: “Investors are largely ignoring energy and prices are lower than almost any other sector – so already a huge advantage.

“I’m piling in now as I believe that as interest rates peak and the global economy turns a corner, which could be within a year or so, demand for energy will soar.”

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, is the third major asset class of interest for Nigel Green, currently.

“Not only does Bitcoin remain one of the best performing asset classes of the decade, I believe its performance will further strengthen. Both institutional and retail investors are increasingly seeing the value of a digital, global, borderless and tamper-proof currency and store of value.

“This trend will increase as adoption picks up further and as confidence grows again in the global economy.”

As ever, the deVere CEO stresses the importance of diversification. “While these three asset classes are catching my eye, my main focus is always diversification.

“There remains one clear way for investors to maximise returns relative to risk: the time-honoured practice of portfolio diversification.

“A considered mix of asset classes, sectors, regions and currencies offers protection from market shocks. A good fund manager will help investors capitalise on the opportunities that volatility brings and sidestep potential risks as and when they are presented.”

He concludes: “The investment adage ‘Sell in May and go away’, is a myth.

“The so-called ‘Summer Swoon’ is an important period for investors who are serious about building wealth for the long-term.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Financial News Stock Market News

31 Jul

Trade Of The Week: GBPUSD Twitchy Ahead Of BoE

By ForexTime

Sterling could kick off the new trading month with a bang as focus falls on the Bank of England rate decision.

After posting a mixed performance across the G10 space in July and gaining roughly 1% versus the dollar, could volatility return in August?

Over the past few weeks, buying sentiment toward the currency has been influenced by conflicting forces – placing bulls and bears in a fierce tug of war. Pound bulls continue to draw strength from rising expectations over the BoE keeping rates higher for longer in the face of sticky inflation. But bears remain supported by growing recession fears as UK economic data disappoints. Regarding the technical picture, the GBPUSD has found itself back within a wide range with support at 1.2800 and resistance at 1.3000.

The GBPUSD could be gearing up for a major move this week and here are 3 reasons why:

1) BoE Rate Decision

The Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision will be on Thursday 3rd August.

This will be accompanied by the minutes of the meeting and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), making it a Super Thursday combo.

Markets widely expected the BoE to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This would be the fourteenth straight rate hike, taking the key rate to 5.25% – its highest level since 2008. Despite UK consumer price inflation dropping to 7.9% in June, it remains well above the BoE’s target. This is likely to fuel expectations around more rate hikes despite disappointing economic data fuelling recession fears.

Investors will be paying very close attention to the minutes, quarterly MPR, and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference for fresh clues on the BoE’s next policy move.

If the BoE delivers a 25 basis point hike and signals further rate hikes in the face of still sticky inflation, this could support the GBPUSD.
If the BoE surprises markets by delivering a 50 basis points hike, this could inject Pound bulls with enough confidence to break out of its current range.
A scenario where the BoE delivers a dovish hike, expressing concern over the UK economy could send the Pound falling.

2) US Jobs report

All eyes will be on the US July nonfarm payrolls (NFP) on Friday which could offer critical insight into the Fed’s next move – especially when factoring in the central bank’s recent shift to data dependence.

The US economy is forecast to have added 190,000 new jobs to the labour markets in July while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%. Given how the US report will act as one of the key pieces that determine whether the Fed raises rates one final time in 2023 or not, this could translate to increased dollar volatility.

A stronger-than-expected US jobs report may fuel speculation around the Federal Reserve raising interest rates one final time in 2023. Should this result in a stronger dollar, this could drag the GBPUSD lower.
A weaker-than-expected US jobs report could support the argument that the Federal Reserve ended its hiking cycle in July. If this sees the dollar weaken, the GBPUSD may push higher.

3) Technical forces

The GBPUSD remains in a bullish channel on the weekly timeframe. However, prices are trading around a significant pivotal point at 1.2850 just below the 200-week SMA. If bulls can keep above this level, and leverage this support to push beyond 1.3000, the next key resistance can be found around 1.3200. However, a breakdown below 1.2850 may see a decline towards the 100-week SMA at 1.2600.

On the daily charts, support can be found at 1.2800 and resistance at 1.3000. A solid breakout above 1.3000 may open the doors towards 1.3140 and 1.3200, respectively. Should prices slide below 1.2800, bears may target 1.2600.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

31 Jul

Falling inflation figures in the US increase the likelihood of a pause at the September Fed meeting

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.5% (+0.65% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.99% (+0.85% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.90% (+1.67% for the week) on Friday.

Core PCE data is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The 0.5% decline from the May reading only reinforced hopes that the Fed has likely ended the current rate hike cycle. Combined with labor costs rising at the slowest pace in two years, this may explain some of the weakness in the US Dollar late last week. There is a lot of US labor market data coming out this week, including the NFP report. This data will provide another snapshot of the state of the US economy. Average hourly earnings will again be a key indicator for the Fed, as strong wage growth has been cited as a problem in the ongoing fight against inflation.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.39% (+2.13% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.15% (+0.96% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.09% (+2.86% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.02% (+0.40%for the week).

This week, the Bank of England will hold a monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Analysts at HSBC expect the Bank of England to maintain a hawkish stance and raise the rate by 50 basis points to 5.50%. At the same time, JP Morgan believes that even though the Bank of England still has a lot of work to do, an increase of 25 basis points is expected.

Interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are holding back gold and silver prices. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde were cautious in their press conferences, reinforcing expectations that interest rates are close to peaking. This means that once the US and ECB central banks complete their tightening cycle, precious metals will receive fundamental support. Analysts predict that late 2023 and all of 2024 will be a bullish period for gold and silver on the back of a declining dollar index.

Crude oil prices (WTI and Brent) continued their upward movement. Many factors contributed to this, but primarily the weakening of the US dollar. This week will start with the release of key data from China, the NBS PMI, which is expected to push oil prices higher. In connection with the recent announcement of OPEC+ on the extension of production cuts for August, whether the organization will decide to continue the reduction in September has been raised again. Market experts are inclined to believe that the production cut will continue.

Asian markets grew steadily last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.34% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 6.12%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 5.56% for the week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive by 1.23% for the week.

On Friday, traders saw two major surprises from Japan. First, the Bank of Japan adjusted its yield curve control policy slightly and made it more flexible in its management. Second, inflation in Tokyo unexpectedly rose to 3.2% in July. But despite this, the BoJ lowered its long-term inflation forecasts, thus keeping the possibility for further easing.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,582.23 +44.82 (+0.99%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,459.29 +176.57 (+0.50%)

DAX (DE40) 16,469.75 +63.72 (+0.39%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,694.27 +1.51 (+0.020%)

USD Index 101.70 -0.07 (-0.07%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Jul

US Dollar Speculators reduce their bullish bets to 2-Year low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,487 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (5,009 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,677 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,780 contracts) and Bitcoin (516 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-6,651 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-5,013 contracts), the British Pound (-4,734 contracts), EuroFX (-1,602 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,962 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (-800 contracts)also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bullish Bets fall to 2-Year Low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decline of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions decreased for a fourth consecutive week this week and the speculators have now subtracted a total of -8,914 net contracts from the overall position in just the last four weeks.

This week’s reduction by -5,013 contracts marked the largest one-week shortfall since December 20th of 2022 (which recorded a decline by -9,021 contracts). This bearishness has dropped the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at +6,054 contracts) to its lowest level of the past 108 weeks, dating back to June 29th of 2021.

Overall, the US Dollar speculator position has been weakening since hitting a cycle high on June 21st of 2022 with a total of +45,010 contracts. Since then, the steady and slow erosion of bullish bets has brought the net position to under the +10,000 contract level for just the second time in the past two years. This latest data is through Tuesday and before the US Federal Reserve’s latest rate increase by 25 basis points that took place on Wednesday. Speculators and market watchers are eyeing the end of the Fed’s interest rate hiking campaign as inflation has been falling across most measures in the US economy.

The US Dollar Index futures price closed higher this week for a second straight week and ended the week right around the 101.40 level. The USD Index had ascended to a multi-decade high of 114.74 in September 2022 and has been on the downtrend since with a current decline (from top to latest price) of approximately 12 percent. The USD Index price fell to a 14-month low on July 18th at 99.22 before staging a comeback over the past two weeks and making it back over the 100 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	34,514	20	6,054	35	-6,339	66	285	20
EUR	772,408	75	177,230	87	-234,269	11	57,039	70
GBP	237,340	60	58,995	97	-76,984	3	17,989	93
JPY	223,760	57	-77,752	24	86,555	78	-8,803	36
CHF	44,180	50	-8,431	32	3,421	51	5,010	74
CAD	156,395	31	5,530	60	-22,096	41	16,566	60
AUD	146,423	28	-51,201	37	49,561	56	1,640	56
NZD	36,820	25	-949	51	32	47	917	61
MXN	233,549	49	87,841	93	-92,058	7	4,217	38
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	53,443	44	31,971	76	-31,957	25	-14	44
Bitcoin	16,017	77	-645	66	-178	0	823	32

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (97 percent) and the Mexican Peso (93 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (87 percent), Brazilian Real (76 percent) and the Bitcoin (66 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (24 percent) and the Swiss Franc (32 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (35 percent) and the Australian Dollar (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (35.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.4 percent)
EuroFX (86.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (87.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (96.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (100.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (23.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (16.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (32.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (59.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (55.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (38.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (51.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (92.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (96.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.9 percent)
Bitcoin (65.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (56.7 percent)

Canadian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (39 percent) and the British Pound (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (16 percent), the EuroFX (10 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Bitcoin (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-13 percent), Swiss Franc (-9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-13.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.9 percent)
EuroFX (9.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (7.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (36.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (35.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (8.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-23.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (39.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (36.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (5.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-0.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-7.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (7.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (9.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-24.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-33.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.6	22.6	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	41.0	10.0
– Net Position:	6,054	-6,339	285
– Gross Longs:	21,258	7,796	3,735
– Gross Shorts:	15,204	14,135	3,450
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	65.7	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	16.4	-26.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 177,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 178,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	52.1	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	82.5	5.2
– Net Position:	177,230	-234,269	57,039
– Gross Longs:	250,647	402,626	97,545
– Gross Shorts:	73,417	636,895	40,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.7	11.4	70.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-12.5	18.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	31.9	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	64.3	10.0
– Net Position:	58,995	-76,984	17,989
– Gross Longs:	105,498	75,737	41,762
– Gross Shorts:	46,503	152,721	23,773
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.7	2.6	93.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.3	-32.7	12.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -77,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	72.0	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.3	33.3	17.4
– Net Position:	-77,752	86,555	-8,803
– Gross Longs:	30,358	161,166	30,040
– Gross Shorts:	108,110	74,611	38,843
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	77.9	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-15.4	11.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	38.0	43.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	30.3	31.8
– Net Position:	-8,431	3,421	5,010
– Gross Longs:	7,804	16,787	19,044
– Gross Shorts:	16,235	13,366	14,034
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.3	50.6	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	-6.0	23.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	47.0	25.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	61.1	14.6
– Net Position:	5,530	-22,096	16,566
– Gross Longs:	42,759	73,539	39,413
– Gross Shorts:	37,229	95,635	22,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.7	41.1	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.3	-35.0	20.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -51,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	54.8	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.7	21.0	15.1
– Net Position:	-51,201	49,561	1,640
– Gross Longs:	39,108	80,237	23,735
– Gross Shorts:	90,309	30,676	22,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.4	55.9	56.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-18.2	33.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -949 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	53.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	53.3	8.6
– Net Position:	-949	32	917
– Gross Longs:	12,933	19,664	4,080
– Gross Shorts:	13,882	19,632	3,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.0	46.6	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-11.4	58.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 87,841 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	45.4	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	84.8	1.9
– Net Position:	87,841	-92,058	4,217
– Gross Longs:	117,732	106,061	8,608
– Gross Shorts:	29,891	198,119	4,391
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.8	6.5	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	0.4	-61.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.0	20.7	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	80.5	9.5
– Net Position:	31,971	-31,957	-14
– Gross Longs:	36,345	11,073	5,084
– Gross Shorts:	4,374	43,030	5,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	25.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-9.2	13.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.6	2.6	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.6	3.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-645	-178	823
– Gross Longs:	11,941	422	1,503
– Gross Shorts:	12,586	600	680
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	49.5	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	38.9	8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

30 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was just Copper with a weekly rise of 4,709 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-19,709 contracts), Silver (-6,937 contracts), Steel (-1,356 contracts), Platinum (-249 contracts) and Palladium (-27 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	476,176	25	173,639	53	-198,210	47	24,571	42
Silver	146,898	36	36,925	71	-49,718	34	12,793	37
Copper	234,713	70	1,159	32	-3,904	68	2,745	36
Palladium	16,760	100	-8,377	0	8,899	100	-522	10
Platinum	64,197	48	15,487	51	-20,441	51	4,954	34

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (53.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (62.2 percent)
Silver (70.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (80.8 percent)
Copper (31.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.8 percent)
Platinum (51.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.9 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.2 percent)
Steel (68.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.1 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (19 percent) and Copper (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-10 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (5.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (7.8 percent)
Silver (18.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (31.9 percent)
Copper (12.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.4 percent)
Platinum (-15.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.5 percent)
Palladium (-10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-14.4 percent)
Steel (0.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 173,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	26.4	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	68.0	4.8
– Net Position:	173,639	-198,210	24,571
– Gross Longs:	248,229	125,491	47,300
– Gross Shorts:	74,590	323,701	22,729
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	47.4	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-4.7	-3.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,937 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.5	26.7	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	60.5	8.0
– Net Position:	36,925	-49,718	12,793
– Gross Longs:	72,786	39,197	24,478
– Gross Shorts:	35,861	88,915	11,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.9	33.7	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-13.6	-10.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	40.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	42.2	5.7
– Net Position:	1,159	-3,904	2,745
– Gross Longs:	73,743	95,140	16,173
– Gross Shorts:	72,584	99,044	13,428
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	68.4	35.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-13.7	15.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 15,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.8	25.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	57.6	4.3
– Net Position:	15,487	-20,441	4,954
– Gross Longs:	36,489	16,506	7,742
– Gross Shorts:	21,002	36,947	2,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	51.2	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	14.2	-4.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -8,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -27 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	61.7	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.4	8.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-8,377	8,899	-522
– Gross Longs:	3,752	10,346	1,417
– Gross Shorts:	12,129	1,447	1,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	7.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	10.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	9.3	-0.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	79.2	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	72.5	0.8
– Net Position:	-1,726	1,641	85
– Gross Longs:	3,242	19,348	276
– Gross Shorts:	4,968	17,707	191
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	31.8	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-0.9	1.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

29 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (64,957 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (7,638 contracts), 10-Year Bonds (5,790 contracts) and the Fed Funds (1,780 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-26,666 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-12,817 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-5,228 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-2,550 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	9,804,148	94	143	80	16,229	20	-16,372	79
FedFunds	1,623,884	57	-158,794	29	169,354	71	-10,560	70
2-Year	3,631,663	98	-1,146,046	0	1,050,948	100	95,098	98
Long T-Bond	1,254,582	59	-145,844	37	95,239	45	50,605	85
10-Year	4,733,680	91	-623,771	22	599,836	83	23,935	79
5-Year	5,348,725	100	-1,137,851	1	1,093,090	99	44,761	93

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (80 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (37 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (29 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (1 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (2 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (28.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (2.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (22.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (21.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (37.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (38.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (80.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (76.0 percent)

10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the Fed Funds (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra Treasury Bonds (-20 percent), US Treasury Bonds (-15 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-13 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with and the SOFR 3-Months (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (4.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (15.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (-8.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-12.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (-8.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (12.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-15.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-19.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-19.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-13.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-8.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-7.2 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 64,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	60.0	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	59.9	0.5
– Net Position:	143	16,229	-16,372
– Gross Longs:	1,745,239	5,886,149	28,054
– Gross Shorts:	1,745,096	5,869,920	44,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	19.5	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	8.3	3.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -158,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.4	73.7	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	63.3	3.0
– Net Position:	-158,794	169,354	-10,560
– Gross Longs:	55,995	1,197,275	37,597
– Gross Shorts:	214,789	1,027,921	48,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.9	71.4	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-5.0	1.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,146,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,119,380 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	82.9	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	53.9	4.3
– Net Position:	-1,146,046	1,050,948	95,098
– Gross Longs:	329,386	3,010,134	250,656
– Gross Shorts:	1,475,432	1,959,186	155,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	97.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	8.3	3.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,137,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,145,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	85.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	65.0	6.3
– Net Position:	-1,137,851	1,093,090	44,761
– Gross Longs:	352,562	4,568,106	383,631
– Gross Shorts:	1,490,413	3,475,016	338,870
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	99.5	93.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	6.3	8.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -623,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -629,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	80.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	67.5	8.0
– Net Position:	-623,771	599,836	23,935
– Gross Longs:	443,907	3,792,947	402,493
– Gross Shorts:	1,067,678	3,193,111	378,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	83.2	78.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-1.5	-11.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -197,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	78.6	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	61.9	15.1
– Net Position:	-197,984	292,592	-94,608
– Gross Longs:	170,280	1,378,559	169,328
– Gross Shorts:	368,264	1,085,967	263,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	96.9	57.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	18.9	-15.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -145,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -143,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	77.9	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	70.3	11.0
– Net Position:	-145,844	95,239	50,605
– Gross Longs:	80,250	976,934	188,398
– Gross Shorts:	226,094	881,695	137,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	44.6	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	12.4	8.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -444,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -439,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	82.8	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	57.1	7.8
– Net Position:	-444,625	387,606	57,019
– Gross Longs:	77,764	1,247,283	175,105
– Gross Shorts:	522,389	859,677	118,086
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	95.6	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	22.6	4.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

29 Jul

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by DowJones-Mini & S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (31,070 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (8,557 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (265 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-10,114 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,871 contracts), VIX (-1,853 contracts) and Russell-Mini (-3,067 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,243,361	24	-232,615	30	215,413	70	17,202	50
Nikkei 225	16,314	17	-2,599	52	1,803	47	796	38
Nasdaq-Mini	260,623	37	-10,672	71	7,629	28	3,043	59
DowJones-Mini	111,965	84	1,416	78	234	34	-1,650	36
VIX	397,695	71	-42,142	89	46,392	9	-4,250	74
Nikkei 225 Yen	51,636	38	9,187	62	15,906	54	-25,093	26

Strength Scores led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (89 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (78 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (88.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (90.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (30.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (25.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (77.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (53.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (71.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (77.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (30.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (32.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (52.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (6.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (18.8 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (48 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (26 percent), the VIX (19 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EAFE-Mini (-3 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (18.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (12.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (14.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (48.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (44.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-15.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-4.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (26.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (28.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-2.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	46.2	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	34.5	7.0
– Net Position:	-42,142	46,392	-4,250
– Gross Longs:	98,339	183,709	23,761
– Gross Shorts:	140,481	137,317	28,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.7	9.0	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-15.5	-19.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -232,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 31,070 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -263,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	75.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	65.8	10.8
– Net Position:	-232,615	215,413	17,202
– Gross Longs:	238,333	1,692,161	258,370
– Gross Shorts:	470,948	1,476,748	241,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.1	69.6	50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.7	-12.8	-2.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	51.0	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	50.8	14.2
– Net Position:	1,416	234	-1,650
– Gross Longs:	35,445	57,124	14,218
– Gross Shorts:	34,029	56,890	15,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.9	34.3	35.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	48.1	-30.0	-10.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,672 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,871 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,199 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	56.2	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	53.3	15.1
– Net Position:	-10,672	7,629	3,043
– Gross Longs:	66,261	146,469	42,387
– Gross Shorts:	76,933	138,840	39,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	27.6	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	5.8	32.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -68,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	82.3	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	70.2	4.9
– Net Position:	-68,769	63,644	5,125
– Gross Longs:	54,699	433,206	30,730
– Gross Shorts:	123,468	369,562	25,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.7	66.2	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-3.9	-0.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	64.5	26.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	53.4	21.1
– Net Position:	-2,599	1,803	796
– Gross Longs:	1,559	10,519	4,236
– Gross Shorts:	4,158	8,716	3,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	46.9	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-20.1	-8.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -30,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,114 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	90.1	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	84.3	1.3
– Net Position:	-30,964	23,535	7,429
– Gross Longs:	24,995	365,843	12,565
– Gross Shorts:	55,959	342,308	5,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.4	87.5	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	3.3	-2.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

29 Jul

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Brent Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (19,097 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (3,420 contracts), Heating Oil (3,106 contracts) and Gasoline (1,965 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-1,359 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-522 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The WTI Crude Oil speculative positioning has risen for four straight weeks and has added a total of +86,808 contracts to the current bullish spec position in just these past four weeks. The current speculator standing for WTI is now at the highest level in thirteen weeks, dating back to April 25th.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,743,598	31	225,196	22	-250,976	80	25,780	31
Gold	476,176	25	173,639	53	-198,210	47	24,571	42
Silver	146,898	36	36,925	71	-49,718	34	12,793	37
Copper	234,713	70	1,159	32	-3,904	68	2,745	36
Palladium	16,760	100	-8,377	0	8,899	100	-522	10
Platinum	64,197	48	15,487	51	-20,441	51	4,954	34
Natural Gas	1,185,638	46	-97,121	33	70,972	68	26,149	42
Brent	135,185	8	-42,350	29	39,044	72	3,306	54
Heating Oil	324,610	46	24,498	72	-48,468	29	23,970	81
Soybeans	676,643	22	134,982	42	-116,876	56	-18,106	57
Corn	1,280,207	12	70,476	32	-6,966	75	-63,510	24
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	911,185	51	219,814	69	-251,397	33	31,583	43
Wheat	311,339	15	-20,555	52	27,401	51	-6,846	50

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (82.3 percent) and the Heating Oil (72.4 percent) lead the energy category currently.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (21.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Brent Crude Oil (29.0 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (21.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (17.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (29.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (22.2 percent)
Natural Gas (33.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (33.8 percent)
Gasoline (50.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (47.5 percent)
Heating Oil (72.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (66.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (82.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (84.3 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that WTI Crude Oil (17.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (11.3 percent), Gasoline (10.7 percent) and Natural Gas (10.3 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-17.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (17.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (8.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (11.3 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-6.6 percent)
Natural Gas (10.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (12.3 percent)
Gasoline (10.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (16.6 percent)
Heating Oil (6.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (0.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-17.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-15.6 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 225,196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 206,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	36.8	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	51.2	3.5
– Net Position:	225,196	-250,976	25,780
– Gross Longs:	350,507	642,195	86,919
– Gross Shorts:	125,311	893,171	61,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.8	80.3	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.6	-15.6	-6.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -42,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	51.8	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.3	22.9	3.9
– Net Position:	-42,350	39,044	3,306
– Gross Longs:	14,810	69,981	8,633
– Gross Shorts:	57,160	30,937	5,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	71.9	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-12.1	2.9

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -97,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	40.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	34.0	3.5
– Net Position:	-97,121	70,972	26,149
– Gross Longs:	245,779	473,719	67,603
– Gross Shorts:	342,900	402,747	41,454
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.3	67.8	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-6.5	-22.9

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 58,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,965 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	41.4	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	60.3	3.7
– Net Position:	58,751	-69,173	10,422
– Gross Longs:	111,892	152,043	24,044
– Gross Shorts:	53,141	221,216	13,622
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	46.1	82.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-17.8	36.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	45.1	17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	60.1	9.7
– Net Position:	24,498	-48,468	23,970
– Gross Longs:	50,444	146,548	55,411
– Gross Shorts:	25,946	195,016	31,441
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	29.3	81.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-28.1	49.0

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	82.6	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	72.4	0.1
– Net Position:	-6,173	5,973	200
– Gross Longs:	9,524	48,544	279
– Gross Shorts:	15,697	42,571	79
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	18.0	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	18.0	-1.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

29 Jul

Speculator Extremes: Cocoa, GBP, MXN, Palladium & 2-Year top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is currently at a 99.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled -0.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 77,894 net contracts this week with a change of 1,406 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The British Pound speculator level is now at a 96.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 36.3 this week. The speculator position registered 58,995 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -4,734 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 92.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 5.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 87,841 net contracts this week with a change of -6,651 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 88.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 18.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -42,142 net contracts this week with a change of -1,853 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Euro speculator level sits at a 86.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 9.8 this week.

The speculator position was 177,230 net contracts this week with a change of -1,602 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -8,377 net contracts this week with a change of -27 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,146,046 net contracts this week with a change of -26,666 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -44.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -251,634 net contracts this week with a change of -14,005 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,137,851 net contracts this week with a change of 7,638 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

Finally, the Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.7 this week. The speculator position was -444,625 net contracts this week with a change of -5,228 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

29 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as nine out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (50,606 contracts) with Soybeans (27,699 contracts), Sugar (23,508 contracts), Cotton (19,503 contracts), Wheat (18,148 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,416 contracts), Lean Hogs (1,048 contracts), Cocoa (1,406 contracts) and Soybean Meal (9,078 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-18,522 contracts) with Live Cattle (-9,538 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,743,598	31	225,196	22	-250,976	80	25,780	31
Gold	476,176	25	173,639	53	-198,210	47	24,571	42
Silver	146,898	36	36,925	71	-49,718	34	12,793	37
Copper	234,713	70	1,159	32	-3,904	68	2,745	36
Palladium	16,760	100	-8,377	0	8,899	100	-522	10
Platinum	64,197	48	15,487	51	-20,441	51	4,954	34
Natural Gas	1,185,638	46	-97,121	33	70,972	68	26,149	42
Brent	135,185	8	-42,350	29	39,044	72	3,306	54
Heating Oil	324,610	46	24,498	72	-48,468	29	23,970	81
Soybeans	676,643	22	134,982	42	-116,876	56	-18,106	57
Corn	1,280,207	12	70,476	32	-6,966	75	-63,510	24
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	911,185	51	219,814	69	-251,397	33	31,583	43
Wheat	311,339	15	-20,555	52	27,401	51	-6,846	50

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (82 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (69 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Wheat (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (27 percent) and Corn (32 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Coffee (36 percent) and the Cotton (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (24.3 percent)
Sugar (68.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (60.3 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (42.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (31.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (42.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (55.6 percent)
Live Cattle (81.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.3 percent)
Cotton (37.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.6 percent)
Cocoa (99.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.3 percent)
Wheat (52.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (39.3 percent)

Wheat & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (47 percent) and Soybeans (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (23 percent), Cotton (20 percent) and Lean Hogs (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-18 percent), Sugar (-11 percent) and Cocoa (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.0 percent)
Sugar (-11.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-13.3 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (28.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (23.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-3.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-18.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (19.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.2 percent)
Cotton (20.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (4.9 percent)
Wheat (47.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (36.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 50,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	48.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	49.2	13.9
– Net Position:	70,476	-6,966	-63,510
– Gross Longs:	291,631	622,624	114,321
– Gross Shorts:	221,155	629,590	177,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	75.1	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-3.0	-7.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 219,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 23,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	43.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	71.2	5.1
– Net Position:	219,814	-251,397	31,583
– Gross Longs:	303,615	397,188	78,190
– Gross Shorts:	83,801	648,585	46,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	32.9	43.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	14.3	-20.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	51.4	3.9
– Net Position:	8,495	-8,052	-443
– Gross Longs:	42,190	84,606	6,662
– Gross Shorts:	33,695	92,658	7,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	67.9	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	24.0	-19.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 134,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 27,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	48.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	65.7	9.7
– Net Position:	134,982	-116,876	-18,106
– Gross Longs:	198,146	327,696	47,428
– Gross Shorts:	63,164	444,572	65,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	56.4	57.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.3	-27.8	19.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,627 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	53.9	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	67.7	4.8
– Net Position:	54,043	-66,223	12,180
– Gross Longs:	100,146	258,123	35,174
– Gross Shorts:	46,103	324,346	22,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.5	48.3	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-28.3	55.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 106,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	36.8	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.0	62.8	5.2
– Net Position:	106,329	-128,326	21,997
– Gross Longs:	126,137	181,449	47,707
– Gross Shorts:	19,808	309,775	25,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	38.1	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-7.3	45.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 95,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	29.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	54.0	12.0
– Net Position:	95,306	-82,121	-13,185
– Gross Longs:	148,543	98,408	26,761
– Gross Shorts:	53,237	180,529	39,946
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	22.4	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.3	22.4	-7.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	37.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	36.4	10.3
– Net Position:	-3,013	1,455	1,558
– Gross Longs:	63,698	74,774	22,377
– Gross Shorts:	66,711	73,319	20,819
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	71.7	90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-23.0	11.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 19,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	46.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	70.0	3.8
– Net Position:	37,984	-46,650	8,666
– Gross Longs:	69,370	89,362	16,115
– Gross Shorts:	31,386	136,012	7,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	58.7	68.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-21.6	30.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 77,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,406 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,488 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	27.5	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	50.2	2.7
– Net Position:	77,894	-81,340	3,446
– Gross Longs:	146,650	98,702	13,174
– Gross Shorts:	68,756	180,042	9,728
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.9	1.0	31.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	1.0	-8.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,148 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	38.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	30.1	11.2
– Net Position:	-20,555	27,401	-6,846
– Gross Longs:	90,416	121,245	28,164
– Gross Shorts:	110,971	93,844	35,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	50.8	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.1	-42.6	-45.0

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