Investors to ignore World Bank report on China and east Asia growth

By George Prior

Investors looking to build wealth will largely overlook World Bank reports about China and east Asia facing the worst economic outlook in half a century, predicts the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The prediction from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as the World Bank said it now anticipates China’s output would grow 4.4% in 2024, down from the 4.8% it expected in April.

It also downgraded its 2024 forecast for GDP growth for developing economies in east Asia and the Pacific of 0.2%.

He comments: “Despite the World Bank’s gloomy outlook on China’s and east Asia’s growth and the challenges posed by factors like US protectionism and rising debt levels, global investors will continue to view the region as a highly attractive investment destination.

One of the primary reasons is the robust economic fundamentals. While growth rates may slow down, East Asian economies have demonstrated their resilience and adaptability in the face of various challenges. Countries like China, South Korea, and Vietnam have diversified their economies, focusing on innovation, technology, and export-oriented industries.

“This diversification reduces their vulnerability to economic shocks and demonstrates a commitment to long-term growth.”

East Asia is home to some of the world’s most populous countries, including China and Indonesia.

“This vast consumer base represents a significant opportunity for businesses to expand their market reach. Rising incomes and an emerging middle class in the region are driving consumer spending, making east Asia an attractive destination for companies looking to tap into this growing market.”

While some East Asian countries, like Japan, are facing aging populations, others, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, have young and growing populations. Demographic trends play a crucial role in determining long-term economic prospects.

Younger populations can drive consumption, labour force growth, and innovation, creating favorable conditions for investment.

He continues: “The majority of east Asian countries are actively investing in infrastructure development. Projects like high-speed railways, smart cities, and ports are not only improving connectivity within the region but also creating investment opportunities for both domestic and foreign investors.

“Naturally, these infrastructure investments help to lead to long-term economic growth and stability.

“Also, something that never gets underplayed by investors, is the strategic location as a crossroads between the Asia-Pacific region and the rest of the world, making it a hub for trade and investment.”

With well-established supply chains and logistical networks, the region offers a competitive advantage for businesses seeking to access global markets.

Furthermore, east Asia has established itself as a global leader in technology and innovation.

Countries like China and South Korea are home to some of the world’s most prominent tech companies. The region’s commitment to research and development, combined with a competitive business environment, fosters innovation and entrepreneurship. This technological prowess makes East Asia an appealing destination for investors seeking exposure to cutting-edge industries.

The deVere CEO observes: “In addition east Asia boasts a highly skilled and educated workforce. Countries like China – which produces 1.4 million engineers a year – and South Korea have invested heavily in education and vocational training, producing a talent pool that is well-equipped for various industries, including tech, manufacturing, and finance.”

In recent years, many East Asian governments have implemented policies to attract foreign investment. These policies include tax incentives, streamlined regulatory processes, and investment protection measures. This environment is conducive for luring foreign capital.

Nigel Green concludes: “The World Bank report says one of the world’s main growth engines is facing its slowest pace of growth since the 1960s.

“However, we fully expect east Asia to remain a highly attractive destination for global investors,.

“The region’s robust economic fundamentals, large consumer markets, infrastructure development, strategic location, skilled workforce, investment-friendly policies, technological advancements, diversification benefits, demographic trends, and regional cooperation all contribute to its enduring appeal for investors who are serious about growing their wealth.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Trade Of The Week: AUDNZD enters breakout mode

By ForexTime

  • AUDNZD has kicked of Q4 breaching 1.0720 support
  • Antipodean central bank decisions could move AUDNZD further
  • Neither RBA nor RBNZ expected to raise interest rates
  • However, fresh insight on future policy moves could spark volatility
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI) flirting near oversold territory

A central bank mashup featuring the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could trigger a significant move in the AUDNZD this week.

Since late June 2023, the currency pair has been trapped within a wide range on the daily charts with support around 1.0720 and resistance at 1.0920. However, the breakdown below key support this morning could be an early indication that a significant move may be on the horizon.

Neither the RBA nor the RBNZ are expected to raise interest rates this week. However, any fresh clues on future monetary policy moves could inject both the aussie and kiwi with fresh volatility.

But before we unpack how these antipodean central bank decisions could influence the AUDNZD, it is worth keeping in mind that the aussie has weakened against most G10 currencies year-to-date.

A similar theme was seen in the New Zealand dollar which depreciated across the G10 space.

Taking a brief look at the technical picture, prices remain trapped within a range on the weekly charts with key support at 1.0580 and resistance at 1.1050.

Here are 3 reasons why we could see some action on the AUDNZD this week:

  1. RBA rate decision on Tuesday 3rd October

The RBA’s first meeting under new Governor Michele Bullock is widely expected to conclude with interest rates left unchanged at 4.1%.

However, traders are still pricing in a 52 % probability of a 25-basis point hike by the end of 2023. Given how economic data since September has been mixed, investors will be paying very close attention to what the new RBA governor has to say.

  • Any hints from Bullock around the central bank keeping rates on hold could weaken the Aussie, pulling the AUDNZD lower as a result.
  • Should Bullock strike a hawkish note and signal another hike down the line, the Aussie may receive a boost – pushing the AUDNZD higher.
  1. RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday 4th October

Markets expect the RBNZ to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.5% this week.

Although economic growth has surprised to the upside, confidence has been hit by rising oil prices. The threat of rising inflationary pressures may force the central bank to maintain a hawkish stance with traders currently pricing in a 58% of a 25-basis point rate hike by the end of 2023.

  • The kiwi could receive a boost if the RBNZ strikes a hawkish note and hints at one more hike in 2023 – dragging the AUDNZD lower as the NZD strengthens.
  • Any sense of caution or whiff of doves during the policy meeting is likely to weaken the NZD, pushing the AUDNZD higher as a result.
  1. Technical forces: breakout

After swinging within a wide range since late June, the AUDNZD experienced a breakdown this morning as prices cut below the 1.0720 support.

Prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flirting near oversold territory.

  • Sustained weakness below 1.0720 may open a path towards 1.0580 and 1.0470.
  • Should 1.0720 prove to be reliable support, this could trigger a rebound towards  the 200-day SMA at 1.0820 before re-testing resistance a 1.0920.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

US politicians passed temporary funding legislation and avoided a shutdown. Inflation in the US and Europe continues to decline

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.47% (-1.18% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.27% (-0.52% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.14% (+0.36% for the week) on Friday. The PCE core deflator for August, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, fell from 4.3% to 3.9% y/y, the lowest reading in 2 years. The favorable news of lower inflation boosted positive sentiment in equities. However, hawkish comments from New York Fed President Williams on Friday pushed bond yields slightly higher and pulled stocks back from better levels when he stated, “My current assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range for the federal funds rate, though I expect we will need to maintain a restrictive stance of monetary policy for some time.”

The fundamental picture in the stock market appears to be changing as stocks are unable to bounce back with the same vigor. Rising bond yields are putting pressure on tech companies, and investors are worried that inflated valuations of mega-companies, including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN) could be another weakness. Meanwhile, the “hype” around artificial intelligence is decreasing, and tech stocks are showing signs of vulnerability to rate hikes.

A negative factor for stocks on Friday was the likely US government shutdown, as Republicans in the House of Representatives could not agree on a plan to continue funding federal operations until October 1. However, the US Congress passed a temporary funding bill on Saturday after Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy dropped an earlier demand by his party’s hardliners. The House voted 335-91 to fund the government through November 17. The move marked a profound shift from early last week when a government shutdown seemed all but inevitable. A government shutdown would mean that most of its 4 million employees would not receive a paycheck – whether they are working or not. And it would also have led to a shutdown of a host of federal agencies, from national parks to financial regulators.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.41% (-0.82% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.26% on Friday (-0.61% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.01% (-0.43% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.08% (week-to-date -0.99%). The Eurozone Consumer Price Index for September declined to 4.3% y/y from 5.2% y/y in August, the lowest reading in nearly two years. German retail sales in August unexpectedly declined by 1.2% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of 0.5% m/m growth and was the biggest decline in the last 8 months. All these factors indicate that the ECB will probably not raise rates again.

With OPEC+ week ahead, there is likely to be an ongoing dispute over how much oil prices can rise. However, Saudi Arabia and Russia face some difficulty in developing a rally. Saudi oil imports to India totaled less than 500,000 barrels a day in September, the lowest monthly level in nearly a decade, as global benchmark Brent crude hit a high of nearly $98 from a March low just above $70. Oil shipments from Saudi ports last month were up 300,000-400,000 barrels a day from August – despite a so-called “lollipop cut” of one million barrels a day – and that trend could continue. Oil prices fell on the last trading day of September amid growing concern about how the world will cope with rising energy prices in the coming months.

Saudi Aramco agreed to buy a stake in MidOcean Energy for $500 million, making its first investment in liquefied natural gas in a bid to diversify beyond its core oil business. Global demand for fuel has surged, especially in Europe, which is replacing reduced gas and oil supplies from Russia.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.03% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 1.45%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week down by 1.31%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week positive by 0.28%.

On Monday, the Bank of Japan said it will conduct additional bond purchases in an effort to slow the rise in yields after benchmark yields hit a decade high.

The central banks of Australia and New Zealand will hold meetings this week. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold its first meeting under the leadership of Michelle Bullock, the first woman to head the bank. The RBA is expected to leave the rate unchanged, but the RBA will leave the door open for further hikes in order to be flexible. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will hold its policy meeting on Wednesday. Despite the RBNZ’s hawkish stance, market watchers do not expect a rate hike, but the RBNZ may hint at a hike in November.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,288.05 −11.65 (−0.27%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,507.50 −158.84 (−0.47%)

DAX (DE40)  15,386.58 +63.08 (+0.41%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,608.08 +6.23 (+0.082%)

USD Index  106.17 −0.05 (−0.05%)

News feed for 2023.09.25:
  • – Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 20:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The Euro/Dollar exchange rate remains near its lowest levels

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The main currency pair starts the week and the month by consolidating around the 1.0569 mark.

The US Federal Reserve’s intention to potentially raise interest rates once again in 2023 is strengthening the position of the USD. The 10-year treasury bonds yield in the US remains at long-term highs regardless of a minor correction.

This week, statistics will be abundant in both the US and the eurozone. Employment sector reports for September in the US are expected to show stabilisation without any notable catalysts.

The eurozone will report on retail sales in August, the PPI, and business activity in the services sector. All these reports will provide insight into the state of the economic system. It is not certain whether there will be any catalyst among the European statistics to support the EUR, although this possibility exists.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD currency pair:

On the EURUSD H4 chart, a consolidation range has formed around 1.0700, reaching the local target of a declining wave at 1.0500 upon escaping the range downwards. Today the market has corrected to 1.0615. A new link of correction to 1.0620 is not excluded, followed by a decline to 1.0440. After reaching this level, a correction to 1.0700 could follow (with a test from below). Next, a decline to 1.0140 is expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD, whose signal line is below zero. The indicator is expected to set new lows.

On the EURUSD H1 chart, a movement in a declining wave to 1.0440 is forming. By now, the market has completed a consolidation range of around 1.0586, reaching the local target of a declining wave at 1.0500 with an escape from the range downwards. A link of correction to 1.0615 has formed today. A new price hike to 1.0620 is not excluded. Next, a new declining movement to 1.0440 is expected, followed by a rise to 1.0700. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line has rebounded from the 80 mark and is currently pointing sharply downwards. The line might eventually fall to the 20 mark.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Speculators boost US Dollar Index bullish bets for 4th straight week to 38-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 26th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (15,331 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (10,131 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (6,091 contracts), the Brazilian Real (2,705 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,124 contracts) and Bitcoin (197 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-18,014 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,893 contracts), the EuroFX (-3,582 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,180 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-3,017 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bullish Bets rise for 4th straight week to 38-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the rise of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index.

The large speculative US Dollar Index positions rose for a fourth straight week this week with the speculator position gaining by a total of +13,935 contracts over this last four-week span.

This renewed bullishness has brought the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at a total of +16,758 contracts) to a new 38-week high, dating back to January 3rd of this year when the speculator’s net position was at a total of +17,761 contracts.

The average weekly speculator position over 2023 has been a modest +11,409 contracts thus far. This follows a strong 2022 where the weekly average speculator position was +33,606 contracts.

The US Dollar Index price also soared over the course of 2022 and hit multi-decade highs with a top at 114.75 price level before retreating into the end of 2022. The Dollar Index has had an topsy-turvy 2023 with an early peak over 105 but then a lower valley that saw a decline to under the 100.00 price level in July. Since then, the Dollar Index has been on a strong run and is currently on a streak of gains for eleven consecutive weeks and closed this week back above the 105.00 level.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-26-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index42,3734116,75853-18,636461,87829
EUR699,2713798,39962-124,4074326,00820
GBP227,8435415,66967-8,68741-6,98244
JPY285,974100-109,5125120,22794-10,71532
CHF53,90084-9,1153220,91477-11,79919
CAD175,84845-32,6962429,819762,87729
AUD211,88267-86,8159102,25094-15,43515
NZD50,75758-15,1811618,42187-3,24011
MXN216,9064360,63376-64,635234,00237
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL55,5884715,55856-18,138422,58058
Bitcoin14,844681,79493-2,033023918

 


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bitcoin (93 percent) and the Mexican Peso (76 percent) led the currency markets this week. The British Pound (67 percent), EuroFX (62 percent) and the Brazilian Real (56 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (5 percent), the Australian Dollar (9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) were at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (52.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (51.0 percent)
EuroFX (62.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (63.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (66.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (79.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (5.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (31.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (24.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (15.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (76.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (78.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (55.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.1 percent)
Bitcoin (93.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (90.4 percent)

 

Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (38 percent) and the US Dollar Index (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies and were the only currencies in positive trends.

The New Zealand Dollar (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-31 percent), EuroFX (-26 percent) and the British Pound (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (19.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (21.7 percent)
EuroFX (-26.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-20.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-24.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-9.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-17.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-10.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (-14.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-6.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-19.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-44.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-30.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-49.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-33.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-54.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-13.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-19.3 percent)
Bitcoin (37.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.3 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.822.511.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.266.57.1
– Net Position:16,758-18,6361,878
– Gross Longs:26,6069,5454,877
– Gross Shorts:9,84828,1812,999
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.3 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.946.228.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.6-20.010.2

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 98,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.255.311.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.273.18.0
– Net Position:98,399-124,40726,008
– Gross Longs:211,516387,03082,167
– Gross Shorts:113,117511,43756,159
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.242.620.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.230.3-31.0

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 15,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -18,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.248.011.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.351.814.6
– Net Position:15,669-8,687-6,982
– Gross Longs:84,750109,26426,381
– Gross Shorts:69,081117,95133,363
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.640.844.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.528.8-31.7

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -109,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -101,619 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.169.912.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.427.916.0
– Net Position:-109,512120,227-10,715
– Gross Longs:46,169200,01535,139
– Gross Shorts:155,68179,78845,854
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.094.331.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.014.5-2.4

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,935 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.059.317.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.920.539.6
– Net Position:-9,11520,914-11,799
– Gross Longs:12,37731,9689,542
– Gross Shorts:21,49211,05421,341
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.9 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.677.418.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.030.3-41.8

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -32,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.768.719.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.351.717.6
– Net Position:-32,69629,8192,877
– Gross Longs:17,006120,75833,799
– Gross Shorts:49,70290,93930,922
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.176.429.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.810.911.6

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -86,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.071.39.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.023.017.0
– Net Position:-86,815102,250-15,435
– Gross Longs:36,104151,04120,512
– Gross Shorts:122,91948,79135,947
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.394.114.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.627.9-8.7

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -15,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,091 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.972.64.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.936.311.0
– Net Position:-15,18118,421-3,240
– Gross Longs:10,63236,8672,340
– Gross Shorts:25,81318,4465,580
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.0 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.986.611.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.230.6-8.4

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 60,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.853.33.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.883.11.2
– Net Position:60,633-64,6354,002
– Gross Longs:92,732115,6166,587
– Gross Shorts:32,099180,2512,585
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.122.836.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.112.25.1

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 15,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.737.37.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.770.03.0
– Net Position:15,558-18,1382,580
– Gross Longs:29,29820,7464,229
– Gross Shorts:13,74038,8841,649
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.5 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.642.358.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.18.77.8

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:73.61.08.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.514.76.5
– Net Position:1,794-2,033239
– Gross Longs:10,9301421,200
– Gross Shorts:9,1362,175961
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.413.918.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.7-55.7-10.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

See our Weekly Trend Model Readings and Actions for each COT Futures Market and Category. All information contained in this data are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver with a gain of 4,874 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-19,348 contracts), Copper (-12,479 contracts), Platinum (-2,668 contracts), Steel (-1,064 contracts) and Palladium (-72 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-26-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold435,6206115,81528-134,8367219,02128
Silver126,2061520,10547-33,0805412,97538
Copper216,03155-28,779627,192941,58728
Palladium18,00483-10,302510,45897-15632
Platinum72,957617,32632-12,349685,02335

 


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (60 percent) and Silver (47 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Copper (6 percent) and Palladium (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (28.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.6 percent)
Silver (46.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (40.0 percent)
Copper (6.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.8 percent)
Platinum (32.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.6 percent)
Palladium (4.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.4 percent)
Steel (60.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (63.5 percent)

 

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (18 percent) and Platinum (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-9 percent), Palladium (-6 percent) and Copper (-3 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-2.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (-3.4 percent)
Silver (17.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.7 percent)
Copper (-2.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-5.4 percent)
Platinum (16.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (16.2 percent)
Palladium (-6.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-0.3 percent)
Steel (-8.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.4 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 115,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 135,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.125.410.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.556.46.0
– Net Position:115,815-134,83619,021
– Gross Longs:235,560110,84445,213
– Gross Shorts:119,745245,68026,192
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.071.927.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.32.7-4.5

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.832.020.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.958.210.0
– Net Position:20,105-33,08012,975
– Gross Longs:51,53940,34625,601
– Gross Shorts:31,43473,42612,626
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.953.838.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.5-11.9-13.6

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,300 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.740.57.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.027.96.6
– Net Position:-28,77927,1921,587
– Gross Longs:70,66387,51815,925
– Gross Shorts:99,44260,32614,338
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.094.128.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.75.4-21.7

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.225.311.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.242.24.9
– Net Position:7,326-12,3495,023
– Gross Longs:40,30518,4438,612
– Gross Shorts:32,97930,7923,589
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.567.935.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.9-13.4-11.2

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -72 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.563.58.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.75.48.9
– Net Position:-10,30210,458-156
– Gross Longs:4,04311,4241,443
– Gross Shorts:14,3459661,599
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 111.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.997.232.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.04.88.6

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.787.20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.358.51.8
– Net Position:-6,2196,460-241
– Gross Longs:1,28319,640164
– Gross Shorts:7,50213,180405
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.5 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.141.06.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.59.2-22.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

See our Weekly Trend Model Readings and Actions for each COT Futures Market and Category. All information contained in this data are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators bets led by 2-Year Bonds and Ultra Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (31,163 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (18,129 contracts) and the Fed Funds (15,454 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week was the SOFR 3-Months (-182,231 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-61,389 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-31,704 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-29,682 contracts), and the 5-Year Bonds (-18,836 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-26-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months9,718,98091317,14689-311,98611-5,16085
FedFunds1,630,23657-195,07823217,05279-21,97448
2-Year3,903,50296-1,210,30041,080,59495129,706100
Long T-Bond1,405,06492-232,8119169,0187163,79395
10-Year4,767,69892-731,99811679,6439052,35585
5-Year5,579,72691-1,025,78217964,6058061,17786

 


Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (89 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (34 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (4 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (9 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (11 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (23.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (20.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (2.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (17.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (18.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (11.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (8.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (33.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (26.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (89.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)

 

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (29 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) and the  the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-18 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (9.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-3.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-6.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-9.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (16.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (1.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-1.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-12.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-18.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (29.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (21.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (18.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (33.2 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 317,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -182,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 499,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.155.50.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.858.80.4
– Net Position:317,146-311,986-5,160
– Gross Longs:1,953,9875,398,26229,392
– Gross Shorts:1,636,8415,710,24834,552
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.110.985.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.8-19.45.6

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -195,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -210,532 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.175.81.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.162.53.2
– Net Position:-195,078217,052-21,974
– Gross Longs:116,3591,236,20130,537
– Gross Shorts:311,4371,019,14952,511
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.179.447.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-7.3-17.3

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,210,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 31,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,241,463 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.080.16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.052.43.6
– Net Position:-1,210,3001,080,594129,706
– Gross Longs:429,5413,127,095269,088
– Gross Shorts:1,639,8412,046,501139,382
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.594.7100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.87.51.7

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,025,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,006,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.882.67.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.265.36.1
– Net Position:-1,025,782964,60561,177
– Gross Longs:492,7414,610,560404,260
– Gross Shorts:1,518,5233,645,955343,083
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.180.286.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.2-11.8-4.8

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -731,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -702,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.778.19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.063.98.0
– Net Position:-731,998679,64352,355
– Gross Longs:509,5783,724,693434,390
– Gross Shorts:1,241,5763,045,050382,035
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.589.684.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.4-4.45.2

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -198,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -61,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.677.510.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.362.315.2
– Net Position:-198,126282,654-84,528
– Gross Longs:179,4081,441,650198,446
– Gross Shorts:377,5341,158,996282,974
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.194.863.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.310.27.9

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -232,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -31,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -201,107 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.379.214.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.867.210.0
– Net Position:-232,811169,01863,793
– Gross Longs:74,1341,113,332204,449
– Gross Shorts:306,945944,314140,656
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.2 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.870.994.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.211.218.1

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -373,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -391,576 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.781.612.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.059.89.7
– Net Position:-373,447334,47938,968
– Gross Longs:87,9441,256,355187,791
– Gross Shorts:461,391921,876148,823
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.562.174.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.1-32.4-5.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

See our Weekly Trend Model Readings and Actions for each COT Futures Market and Category. All information contained in this data are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: Heating Oil, Bitcoin, Corn & Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 26th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Heating Oil


The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is currently at a 98.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 18.4 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 42,127 net contracts this week with a change of -774 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Bitcoin


The Bitcoin speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is now at a 93.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 37.7 this week. The speculator position registered 1,794 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 197 contracts in speculator bets.


Cocoa Futures


The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level resides at a 90.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 1.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 78,538 net contracts this week with a change of -9,724 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 89.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 18.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 317,146 net contracts this week with a change of -182,231 contracts in the speculator bets.


Bloomberg Commodity Index


The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 86.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.7 this week.

The speculator position was -5,137 net contracts this week with a change of 1,280 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn


The Corn speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -118,540 net contracts this week with a change of -17,307 contracts in the speculator bets.


Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note


The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 4.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.3 this week. The speculator position was -198,126 net contracts this week with a change of -61,389 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


2-Year Bond


The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 4.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,210,300 net contracts this week with a change of 31,163 contracts in the speculator bets.


Palladium


The Palladium speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Palladium speculator level is at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.0 this week. The speculator position was -10,302 net contracts this week with a change of -72 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Japanese Yen


Finally, the Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 5.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.0 this week. The speculator position was -109,512 net contracts this week with a change of -7,893 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (49,710 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,923 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (1,959 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-24,019 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (-3,849 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,348 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-196 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-26-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,137,64815-89,2815165,6224923,65947
Nikkei 22515,48315-61062-1,200291,81051
Nasdaq-Mini241,0182984666-9923614666
DowJones-Mini92,55151-21,6181319,472732,14654
VIX384,93064-52,8358058,63119-5,79666
Nikkei 225 Yen53,6904210,779677,03230-17,81149

 


Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (80 percent) currently leads the stock markets this week and is in Extreme-Bullish territory (above 80 percent). The Nasdaq-Mini (66 percent) and Nikkei 225 (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (80.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (97.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (51.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (44.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (12.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (23.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (66.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (68.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (35.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (62.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (31.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.0 percent)

 

Russell-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (4 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-52 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-20 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-19.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (11.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (4.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (3.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-52.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-61.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-3.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (0.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (1.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-1.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -52,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,816 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.447.26.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.232.07.9
– Net Position:-52,83558,631-5,796
– Gross Longs:86,408181,65124,727
– Gross Shorts:139,243123,02030,523
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.419.366.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.619.2-0.9

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -89,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 49,710 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.473.011.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.669.910.7
– Net Position:-89,28165,62223,659
– Gross Longs:266,0951,560,014251,580
– Gross Shorts:355,3761,494,392227,921
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.449.046.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-4.20.6

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.762.315.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.141.313.4
– Net Position:-21,61819,4722,146
– Gross Longs:18,23757,68114,570
– Gross Shorts:39,85538,20912,424
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.773.354.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-52.133.78.8

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.258.216.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.858.616.5
– Net Position:846-992146
– Gross Longs:58,307140,15639,946
– Gross Shorts:57,461141,14839,800
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.235.866.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.83.91.4

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -61,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,959 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.785.25.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.072.44.9
– Net Position:-61,60259,2762,326
– Gross Longs:35,566393,90724,965
– Gross Shorts:97,168334,63122,639
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.063.833.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.8-4.8-3.5

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.667.124.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.574.812.7
– Net Position:-610-1,2001,810
– Gross Longs:1,32510,3853,773
– Gross Shorts:1,93511,5851,963
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.428.651.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.6-3.76.5

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,923 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.589.42.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.183.51.6
– Net Position:-25,32822,8342,494
– Gross Longs:29,019344,9098,675
– Gross Shorts:54,347322,0756,181
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.769.629.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.85.8-20.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

See our Weekly Trend Model Readings and Actions for each COT Futures Market and Category. All information contained in this data are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Clean Beef Firm Sees Gold in Waste Streams

Source: Streetwise Reports  (9/27/23)

Consumers love beef, but producing this delicious meat at scale can be an environmental nightmare. However, freshly-proven technology from Bion Environmental Technologies Inc. promises to make beef “green” again. Read below to see why one technical analyst likes this company’s stock.

Despite the company being publicly traded for almost 30 years, you may not be familiar with Bion Environmental Technologies Inc. (BNET:OTCQB). The firm is a niche agricultural tech company with a focus on developing sustainable solutions for environmental issues in livestock agriculture.

Bion has focused on developing patented technology that provides advanced waste treatment and resource recovery for large-scale livestock production facilities (also known as Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations or CAFOs), which, as many environmentalists can tell you, are some of the more polluting elements of modern large-scale agricultural production.

Bion Environmental Technologies’ third-generation tech platform (Gen3 Tech) can mitigate environmental problems, while simultaneously improving operational and resource efficiencies by recovering high-value co-products from CAFOs’ waste streams.

The tech is designed to capture and stabilize the various components of the effluent, converting them from liabilities into assets, including renewable energy, fertilizer products, and clean water, all key aspects of raising verifiably sustainable livestock.

The company is also focused on developing markets and distribution partners for its sustainable animal protein products and the low-carbon and organic fertilizer products it captures and upcycles from the waste stream.

The Catalyst: Controlled Steady State Ammonia Recovery at Scale

On September 19, Bion Environmental Technologies announced that its proof-of-concept ammonia recovery system at its Fair Oaks commercial scale demonstration facility had achieved and maintained controlled steady-state operations.

The release stated, “When at steady state, the system produces an ammonium distillate (solution), the base of Bion’s nitrogen fertilizer products. Bion has begun optimizing the system’s operating parameters so that it will meet Bion’s economic models for large-scale commercial projects.”

The release anticipates at least four to eight weeks for optimization, after which time the final design for commercial projects can begin.

Technical Analyst Clive Maund addressed the stock on August 24, 2023, writing, “This looks like a good point to buy Bion Environmental Tech which, after being in a downtrend for much of this year, hit bottom in mid-July when it briefly touched $0.90 as we can see on its latest 3-month chart.”

The Ammonia Recovery System (ARS) at the core of the Gen3 Tech platform recovers, stabilizes, and upcycles the problematic ammonia-nitrogen in the waste stream, minimizing its environmental impacts and creating organic and low-carbon nitrogen fertilizer products.

Today, raw waste is spread on fields for its fertilizer value; however, most of the ammonia volatilizes or runs off to contribute to groundwater nitrate contamination, harmful (some toxic) algae blooms and dead zones, and formation of PM2.5, small particulate air pollution.

The release continued, “In the next few weeks, Bion intends to produce ammonium distillate at Fair Oaks in several concentrations and apply for organic certification for each product. Bion will also produce a solid/granular water-soluble nitrogen product that is climate-smart — a pure nitrogen fertilizer with a low carbon footprint that can be easily shipped and is readily available to plants.”

The company has applied to several state agencies to certify the granular product for use in organic production.

Company CEO Bill O’Neil said the company is “Very pleased with system performance at Fair Oaks, and to be back in control of our timelines. Over the next few weeks, we will conduct demonstration tours with key stakeholders in the beef industry, potential partners in distribution, banking, and project finance, and others as we establish the strategic relationships needed to develop commercial projects.”

Why This Industry? Green Concerns are Global

O’Neil continues, “Today, many are focused on climate impacts, but we believe the larger issue with livestock is ammonia, which is of increasing concern in the U.S., especially in California and Washington.”

“In the EU, a nitrogen cap has already led to social and political unrest in Ireland and the Netherlands. We think the value of being able to upcycle and redirect that ammonia so that its nitrogen can be used where and when it is needed cannot be overemphasized.”

Indeed, nitrogen has become a serious agricultural and environmental concern in many developed economies, especially those producing feedlot animals. As a 2022 article in MercoPress warns, “Farmers in the Netherlands are revolting over the government’s plan to drastically reduce nitrogen emissions by 2030.”

“This plan, as announced in practice, means that, in certain areas, farmers have to reduce their nitrogen emissions by 70%,” explains Marcel Crok, a Dutch science writer and co-founder of the Climate Intelligence Foundation. “That means they simply have to quit.”

“Most investors are familiar with the meteoric rise (and subsequent fall) of plant-based meat companies over 2021 and 2022,” Penny Queen explains. “I believe the lesson to be learned from it is two-fold: there is a great demand for alternatives to current farming practices, and there is still a massive demand for animal proteins. A recent survey by Midan Marketing showed that 62% of American consumers purchase premium beef.”

“I see BION being a steady grower over the next few years.”

However, with access to ammonia control practices and technologies like Bion’s, that might not be the case.

The article notes that “The proposal to sharply cut nitrogen emissions is tied to a 2019 Dutch court decision forcing the nation’s government to take more aggressive measures to curb nitrogen emissions. The Netherlands, though, has heavily regulated agriculture emissions since the 1990s, and farmers have largely complied with such rules.”

“The Netherlands emits a large quantity of nitrogen because of its massive agriculture industry, which accounts for about 87% of the country’s 124 million kilograms of annual ammonia emissions, a U.S. Department of Agriculture report showed. The nation exported US$26.8 billion worth of food products despite having a relatively tiny population compared to other major producers, according to World Bank data.”

“It is not very rational to curb Dutch agriculture if you realize that they have the highest production per acre in the world and therefore the environmental load per kilogram of food is lower than elsewhere,” explains Simon Rozendaal, a Dutch journalist and chemist.

Of course, the Netherlands is only one country facing the harsh environmental reality of industrial-scale agricultural production. Ireland, likewise, has farmers in its crosshairs.

On September 7, writing for Tri-State Livestock NewsChris McCullough reported that “Dairy farmers in the Republic of Ireland say the government does not care for the agriculture industry after threatened cuts to the country’s nitrogen derogation levels were imposed.”

“According to the National Trust for Ireland, the Nitrates Derogation is a license to spread more organic nitrogen per hectare on land than is routinely permitted under the Nitrates Directive. According to the text of the Directive, organic Nitrogen is livestock manure applied to the land each year, including by the animals themselves.”

“The current derogation limit of 250 kg/ha was due to expire on January 1, 2026, but Ireland’s failure to improve water quality has forced an EU reduction to 220 kg/ha. This new level is set to commence on January 1, 2024, in some areas, affecting around 3,000 farmers, ultimately forcing them to reduce cattle numbers or find more land to rent.”

“Dairy farmers are furious and have blamed the government for putting the future of Ireland’s multi-billion euro dairy industry in jeopardy.”

Clearly, this is a cross-jurisdictional international issue that will continue to plague producers well into the future. Alleviating the environmental stress food production causes while allowing countries to maintain viable herd sizes is an important social, structural, and food security goal, one in which Bion Environmental Technologies could play a significant role. More so, could certain regions of the U.S., where overconcentration has already led to profound impacts on local and downstream ecosystems, be next?

Why This Company? Proven Tech, No Competition

With the announcement of its successful startup at its Fair Oaks commercial scale demonstration facility, Bion Environmental Technologies has taken a big step in leading the fight to stop and reverse the environmental damage caused by CAFO facilities. When asked about competitors and comparable businesses, CEO O’Neill wasn’t able to name any other firm working on the same problems in the same manner.

“I don’t know of any true competitors,” he explained, “unless you want to count macro industry competitors, such as plant-based proteins, cellular meat. On the clean water side, Varcor/ Sedron Engineering has a tech that works for dairy but has limitations we can help with.”

“As far as the US$66 billion U.S. beef industry? No one else has developed a comprehensive solution for that sector of the livestock industry. We are unique.”

Why Now? Inflection Point From R&D to Sales

Bion Environmental Technologies could be said to be at a sweet spot right now. The company is transitioning from decades of research and development into full-swing commercialization, and all the things that come with that transition –team building, establishing partnerships and strategic alliances, as well as expanding the board, completing a private placement, and retaining an investment banker, all with the goal of uplisting to a senior exchange.

Technical Analyst Clive Maund addressed the stock on August 24, 2023, writing, “This looks like a good point to buy Bion Environmental Tech which, after being in a downtrend for much of this year, hit bottom in mid-July when it briefly touched $0.90 as we can see on its latest 3-month chart.”

“Since hitting this low, it has stabilized in a triangular pattern that comprises the latter part of what is believed to be a Head-and-Shoulders bottom, with the Left Shoulder forming in mid-June. A big reason that a valid H&S Bottom is believed to have formed is the strong volume pattern since July, with most of the volume in recent weeks being upside volume, which is why the Accumulation line has risen in a robust manner and the dissipation of downside volume.”

“On the long-term 3-year chart,” Maund continued, “We can clearly see why this is a good point for Bion to turn higher again as the downtrend from early this year has brought it back down to a zone of strong support close to long-term cyclical lows and this also shows us another attribute of this stock, for as we can see it has the habit of occasionally erupting into steep and spectacular rallies that are then followed by ‘cooling off’ periods in long and tedious downtrends.”

“Right now, it looks like it will soon break out into a possible rocket move, and if anyone who buys in this area is fortunate enough to catch such a move, it will probably be prudent to take profits if it should make it to the resistance at the top of the broad channel shown on this chart. Bion Environmental Tech is therefore rated a strong buy here for all timeframes.”

Writing in January of this year, Penny Queen was equally optimistic about the company’s long-term prospects. “What really sticks out to me about their latest announcement is how it ties Bion to Walmart. The company has been careful with its words, but you don’t have to look very deep to see the connection.”

“Bion is now planning a 45k head project with Olson Farms/TD Angus. It is worth noting that Olson Farms/TD Angus is a founding member of Sustainable Beef, LLC, a rancher-owned, US$325 million packing plant being developed in North Platte, NE.”

“Walmart just announced an equity investment to buy a minority stake in Sustainable Beef, LLC. Connecting the dots seems pretty easy here. It looks like Walmart is showing that they have sufficient demand for a premium product and want to secure its distribution. In late September, Bion added Bill Rupp to its Advisory Group; he also happens to be a principal of Sustainable Beef, LLC., a former president at Cargill and JBS, two of the world’s top three meat packers.”

“Most investors are familiar with the meteoric rise (and subsequent fall) of plant-based meat companies over 2021 and 2022,” Penny Queen explains. “I believe the lesson to be learned from it is two-fold: there is a great demand for alternatives to current farming practices, and there is still a massive demand for animal proteins. A recent survey by Midan Marketing showed that 62% of American consumers purchase premium beef.”

“I see BION being a steady grower over the next few years.”

Ownership and Share Structure

About 44% of the company is held by management and insiders and about 5% by strategic investors, Bion said. The rest is retail.

The stock is covered by several newsletter writers, including Maund, Matt Badiali, and Chris Temple, editor of The National Investor. Click in the data box above to view more of what they are saying.

Bion has a market cap of US$60.36 million and 48.9 million shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$2.30 and US$0.505.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Owen Ferguson wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor.
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