Understanding ‘underconsumption core’: How a new trend is challenging consumer culture

By Omar H. Fares, Toronto Metropolitan University and Seung Hwan (Mark) Lee, Toronto Metropolitan University 

A new TikTok trend called “underconsumption core” is gaining traction online. This trend champions minimalism and frugality, and encourages people to maximize the utility of their purchases and buy only what they truly need, challenging the culture of consumerism.

Instead of showcasing large hauls of clothing, makeup or over-flowing fridge shelves, users are posting videos showing thrift store purchases, modest wardrobes and practical, well-used everyday items.

The rise of this trend can be linked to several challenges facing young people today, including increasing economic pressures, environmental concerns and social pressures, all of which are particularly affecting Gen Z and younger Millennials. If you’re also feeling financially squeezed, this trend might resonate with you.

Similar to the deinfluencing trend, underconsumption also appears to be a reaction to overconsumption — especially the way influencers have normalized it by posting haul videos. By promoting underconsumption, online users are rejecting and pushing back against this aspect of “influencer culture.”

Born of necessity

Young people are likely engaging with it as a way to adapt to increasing financial pressures.

For instance, the average federal student loan debt balance in the United States is US$37,574 per borrower, according to the Education Data Initiative. Student debt is a significant financial burden that often forces young adults to prioritize debt repayment over discretionary spending.

Inflation is also continuing to erode Gen Z’s purchasing power. While there are signs of economic relief, such as interest rate cuts in Canada, the cumulative effects of high prices continue to strain young peoples’ budgets.

Underconsumption core represents a growing awareness and adaptation to these economic realities, but it’s not the only reason. Another driver of the underconsumption trend appears to be environmental consciousness.

Environmental concerns

Mass consumerism has created significant environmental problems, including the generation of vast amounts of waste. In Chile’s Atacama Desert, an estimated 11,000 to 59,000 tons of used clothing is sitting in a landfill. This is just one example of how overconsumption is polluting the environment.

A report from ThredUp, an online vintage-resale platform, found that 65 per cent of Gen Z respondents wanted to shop more sustainably. However, one-third felt “addicted to fast fashion,” and 72 per cent said they shopped for fast fashion in 2022. Similarly, researchers from Sheffield Hallam University found 90 per cent of university students bought fast fashion in 2022.

Despite this, many of these same consumers are concerned with sustainability and are actively seeking ways to be more responsible. Our recent study found a consistent shift in consumer attitudes towards sustainability practices, especially in fashion. This is particularly the case with Gen Z, who rely heavily on social media for shopping inspiration.

As younger consumers become more aware of the environmental impact of their purchasing decisions, they are increasingly drawn to sustainable fashion content.

This shift in consumer mentality aligns with the broader cultural phenomenon known as the “Marie Kondo effect,” named after the Japanese organizing consultant. She is an advocate for only keeping things that bring one value and joy. Kondo’s influence has sparked a growing interest in intentional consumption.

However, it is important to note that, in some instances, sustainable consumption behaviours may be driven more by selfish motives than purely altruistic ones. By choosing to consume less or more mindfully, younger individuals can project an image of thoughtfulness, responsibility and uniqueness — qualities that are increasingly valued in the social media landscape.

How to be a healthier consumer

If you are interested in practising healthier consumption habits, it’s important to understand how you can sustain this lifestyle long-term. There are two main strategies you can use to do this.

First, find a way to strike a balance between frugality and quality of life to maintain your overall well-being. Research suggests a mix of experiential spending (such as travel) and material purchases (such as a new smartphone) can lead to greater happiness and satisfaction.

Don’t completely abandon material purchases in favour of experiences. Instead, a thoughtful approach that includes both types of spending, albeit at a reduced overall level, will likely lead to better outcomes. This approach focuses more on mindful consumption, rather than blanket restrictions.

Second, try to focus on improving your financial literacy. Start by creating a budget that ensures basic needs and baseline expenses are met. Seek to understand the types of financial products and solutions that fit your particular needs. This will help you avoid overconsumption and make choices that support long-term financial stability.

Those with higher financial literacy are better equipped to select products that align with their needs and values, rather than falling prey to aggressive marketing or unnecessary features that can lead to overconsumption. For instance, young consumers are likely to spend more on credit cards that offer attractive rewards leading to overconsumption and strained budgets over the long-term.

While the underconsumption trend offers potential benefits, it’s important to approach it in a balanced way. While combining healthy spending habits with financial literacy is key, it shouldn’t be about deprivation. Instead, you should make informed choices that align with your personal values and goals. Done right, underconsumption can lead to financial stability and a more purposeful lifestyle.The Conversation

About the Author:

Omar H. Fares, Lecturer in the Ted Rogers School of Retail Management, Toronto Metropolitan University and Seung Hwan (Mark) Lee, Professor and Associate Dean of Engagement & Inclusion, Ted Rogers School of Management, Toronto Metropolitan University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Stock indices sold off on concerns that the Fed is behind on rate cuts.

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, US indices were declining, with the Dow Jones (US30) Index down 1.21% and the S&P 500 (US500) Index down 1.37%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 2.30%. Weaker-than-expected US economic news caused a liquidation of equity positions due to concerns that the Fed is behind schedule and waiting too long to cut interest rates. US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 14,000 to a near 1-year high of 249,000, indicating a weaker labor market than expected at 236,000. The US ISM Manufacturing Index for July unexpectedly fell by 1.7 to 46.88, weaker than expectations of a rise to 48.8 and the sharpest contraction in 8 months. US construction spending in June unexpectedly declined by 0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations for a 0.2% m/m increase.

Moderna (MRNA) is down more than 21% and topped the list of losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after cutting its full-year revenue guidance to $3.0–3.5 billion from the previous estimate of $4 billion, which was weaker than the consensus prognoses of $4.14 billion. Etsy (ETSY) closed down more than 7% after reporting second-quarter earnings per share of 41 cents, weaker than the consensus expectation of 45 cents, and estimating a third-quarter adjusted EPS margin of 27%, weaker than the consensus estimate of 28.9%. Meta Platforms (META) is up more than 4% and topped the Nasdaq 100 after reporting second-quarter revenue of $39.07 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $38.34 billion. Amazon (AMZN) shares fell nearly 8% after the company said in a report that online sales growth slowed in the second quarter and noted that consumers are looking for cheaper shopping options. Intel (INTC) said Thursday it will cut more than 15% of its workforce (about 17,500) and suspend its dividend starting in the fourth quarter as the chipmaker seeks to turn things around by focusing on its loss-making manufacturing business. Intel’s shares fell by 20% in extended trading, leaving the chipmaker poised to lose more than $24 billion in market value. About a third of the companies in the S&P 500 have already reported. Most of the companies that reported beat consensus earnings estimates, but only 43% beat revenue expectations, the lowest in five years.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly falling yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 2.30%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 2.14%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.90%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 1.01%.

Thursday’s economic news showed that the Eurozone unemployment rate for June unexpectedly rose, pointing to labor market weakness that is dovish for ECB policy. The Eurozone unemployment rate for June unexpectedly rose by 0.1 to 6.5%, indicating a weaker labor market compared to expectations of no change at 6.4%. The S&P Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for July from S&P was revised upward by 0.2 to 45.8 from the previously reported 45.6. ECB Governing Council spokesman Stournaras said yesterday that he still expects two more ECB rate cuts this year if disinflation continues. In addition, economic growth has been weaker than expected, which also supports lower interest rates.

Switzerland’s annualized inflation rate for July 2024 was 1.3%, unchanged from the previous month and in line with market expectations. The core rate, which excludes volatile items such as unprocessed food and energy, was unchanged at an annualized rate of 1.1% in July.

The US natural gas prices (XNGUSD) surpassed the $2.05 per MMBtu mark, weakly holding the week’s gains amid supply risks and expectations of higher demand. The latest data from the EIA showed that US utilities added 18 billion cubic feet of gas in the week ended July 26, half as much as financial markets had expected. That added to fears of declining US supply after reports that Freeport LNG, the second-largest US export facility, produces more than 2 billion cubic feet of gas daily and is on track to return to full production.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 2.49%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.71%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.23%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.28%.

The Australian dollar fell to its lowest level in three months as risk sentiment declined after weak US economic data added to recession fears. Markets feared that an expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may come too late to stave off a recession. Domestically, the Australian dollar also came under pressure from softer-than-expected second-quarter inflation data, which reduced the chances of another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this month.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,446.68 −75.62 (−1.37%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,347.97 −494.82 (−1.21%)

DAX (DE40) 18,083.05 −425.60 (−2.30%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,283.36 −84.62 (−1.01%)

USD Index 104.34 +0.58 (+0.57%)

Important events today:
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

GBP/USD Under Pressure as Market Anticipates Bank of England Rate Decision

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The British pound sterling continues to decline steadily against the US dollar. The GBP/USD pair is trending towards 1.2848.

On the one hand, the pressure from the USD rate is evident. On the other hand, investors are awaiting the outcome of today’s Bank of England meeting and its decision on interest rates.

There is speculation that the BoE will lower the interest rate from 5.25% to 5.00% today. The inflationary environment, coupled with the state of the employment market in the UK, supports this adjustment. The probability of a rate cut is currently estimated at 65%.

An early move towards monetary policy easing is considered possible for the Bank of England. However, the regulator’s tone in its statements may be relatively cautious, indicating that the BoE is unlikely to lower the rate rapidly. A certain degree of conservatism can be expected from the Bank of England, which will only act if it is fully confident about the economic conditions.

This potential decision is already factored into GBP quotes. The future movements in GBPUSD will be directly influenced by the details provided in the Bank of England’s accompanying statement.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

On the H4 chart of GBP/USD, the market has executed a decline wave to 1.2820 and a subsequent correction to 1.2867. Today, the market continues its downward movement towards 1.2772. After reaching this level, we will assess the probability of a correction to 1.2870 (testing from below). After the correction is complete, we expect the beginning of a new decline wave to the local target of 1.2611. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, which shows the signal line below the zero mark and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart of GBP/USD, a correction wave is currently underway towards 1.2867. Today, the formation of the next downward wave to the initial target of 1.2772 is in progress. After reaching this level, we will evaluate the likelihood of a new correction wave towards 1.2870. Following the completion of the correction, we expect a new decline wave to 1.2770. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line positioned below 50 and continuing to decline towards 20.

Investors and traders should closely monitor the BoE’s statement for any indications of future policy direction, as it will be crucial in determining the short to medium-term trajectory of the GBP/USD pair.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

The US Federal Reserve is set to cut rates in September. Today, investors are focused on the Bank of England meeting

By JustMarkets 

On Tuesday, US stocks traded mixed: the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.24%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) rose 1.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 2.64%. Stocks soared to highs when Fed Chair Powell said that upside risks to inflation have diminished due to a cooling labor market and a Fed rate cut “could be” at the September FOMC meeting. The FOMC, as expected, left the target federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%–5.50% and said it was not going to cut interest rates “until it has more confidence that inflation is moving steadily toward 2%.” However, the FOMC changed its statement after the meeting, saying it was “closely monitoring the risks to both sides of its dual mandate” instead of emphasizing only inflation risks.

Wednesday’s flurry of bullish news also contributed to a surge in shares of chip companies. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) rose more than 12% after Morgan Stanley called it the best-performing stock in the US and said the recent selloff has opened up a good entry point. Also, shares of ASML Holding NV rose more than 8% after Reuters reported that the Biden administration plans to exempt chip equipment makers in Japan, the Netherlands, and South Korea from upcoming export restrictions. Additionally, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose more than 7% after unveiling an optimistic revenue outlook. This week, companies such as Meta (META) will report after the close on Wednesday, while Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) will report on Thursday. Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to report earnings on August 28.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.53%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.73%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.23%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 1.13%.

According to economists, the Bank of England is set to begin its easing cycle today, cutting its key benchmark rate by 25 bps to 5% from a 16-year high of 5.25%. However, the decision will not be a clear-cut one, as many investors believe the Central Bank may prefer to keep rates unchanged due to concerns over inflation. Core inflation was unchanged at 2% in June, remaining at its lowest level since 2021. Services inflation, however, was strong at 5.7%, beating the Bank of England’s estimate of 5.1%. Meanwhile, unemployment remained at 2021 levels, and wage growth, although slowing, was still strong. The Bank of England will also unveil new growth and inflation prognoses.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $78.7 a barrel on Thursday, extending gains after a more than 4% jump in the previous session, amid continued concerns over possible supply disruptions due to the growing threat of wider conflict in the Middle East. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran early Wednesday after Israel said an airstrike on Beirut on Tuesday killed Hezbollah’s top commander. Iran vowed revenge, saying Israel would “pay a heavy price.” Meanwhile, EIA data showed a larger-than-expected 3.43 million barrel decline in US crude oil inventories, well above market expectations for a 1.6 million barrel decline and extending a similarly large drop in inventories the previous week, marking the fifth consecutive decline in inventories.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.49%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 1.64%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.01%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.75%. The Nikkei 225 Index (JP225) was down 2.49% at the market open today, and the broader Topix Index was down 3.24%, wiping out gains from the previous session as the Bank of Japan raised its discount rate to 0.25% and said it is willing to raise it further if the economy demands it. Markets are betting on two more rate hikes this fiscal year, which ends in March 2025, with the next rate hike coming in December.

The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI for July 2024 stood at 54.7, remaining at its highest level since May 2022. New orders rose for the fourth consecutive month, but the pace of growth is slightly slower than the near-record pace in June. New export orders also increased, albeit at a much lower rate compared to total new orders. As a consequence, manufacturers increased output at the second-highest rate on record. On the price side, input cost inflation was only slightly weaker than the two-year high last month, pushing up input costs for the third consecutive time.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,522.30 +85.86 (+1.58%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,842.79 +99.46 (+0.24%)

DAX (DE40) 8,508.65 +97.47 (+0.53%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,367.98 +93.57 (+1.13%)

USD Index 104.02 −0.54 (−0.51%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

NFP Preview: September US rate cut in the bag?

By ForexTime 

  • Fed leaves rates unchanged but signals possible September cut
  • Incoming US jobs report likely to shape expectations
  • NAS100:  NFP sparked moves of ↑ 1.5% & ↓ 0.7% over past year
  • Gold: ↑ 2% this week, ready to retest records?
  • USDInd: Trapped in range, key levels – 103.65 & 104.70

With the Fed rate decision out the way, our focus shifts to Friday’s key US jobs report.

US rates were left unchanged yesterday, but Fed Chair Powell signalled that a cut could happen in September – depending on economic data.

This puts extra focus on the incoming NFP report which may shape bets around how many times the Fed cuts interest rates this year.

Markets expect the US economy to have created 175k jobs in July, compared to the 206k in the previous month while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Ultimately, further evidence of cooling labour markets may solidify expectations around the Fed making a move next month.

Traders have priced in a 25-basis point Fed cut by September with a 90% probability of another cut by November and 87% of a third cut by December!

With all the above said, here are 3 assets that could be rocked by jobs report:

    1) NAS100 braced for triple-risk events

FXTM’s NAS100 could see heightened volatility on Friday due to not only the NFP report but also corporate earnings from Amazon and Apple.

The index staged a sharp rebound mid-week with prices challenging the 19500-resistance level.

  • A solid set of earnings coupled with a soft jobs report could push the index higher.
  • Should tech earnings disappoint or the jobs data print above forecasts, the NAS100 could fall.

Talking technicals..

  • A breakout above 19500 could signal a move toward 20100.
  • Should 19500 prove to be reliable resistance, prices could slip toward the 100-day SMA at 18800.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves of as much as 1.5% or declines of 0.6% in a 6-hour window post-release.

NAS100

 

    2) Gold to retest record highs?

Gold is up roughly 2% this week despite kicking off Thursday’s session on a shaky note.

The precious metal remains supported by geopolitical risk and expectations around lower US interest rates. Given it’s zero yielding nature and sensitivity to US rate speculation, gold could see heightened volatility on Friday.

A soft jobs report is positive for the precious metal while a strong report could drag prices lower.

Focusing on the technical picture..

  • Prices could rise toward the $2438.80 all-time high and beyond if $2425 proves reliable support.
  • A breakdown below this level may open a path back toward the 50-day SMA at $2360 and 100-day SMA.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves of as much as 1.0% or declines of 0.8% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Gold

 

    3) USDInd waits on directional spark

It remains a choppy affair for the USDInd which is trapped within a range on the daily charts.

Bulls and bears are likely to remain entangled in a fierce tug of war until the scales of power shift in one direction. This catalyst could be on the incoming NFP report on Friday.

Support can be found at 103.65 and resistance at 104.70.

  • A breakout above 104.70 may open doors towards the 50/100-day SMA at 105.20.
  • Weakness below 103.65 could see a selloff to 103.27.

USDInd


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Oil rises amid escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Inflationary pressures in Australia are easing

By JustMarkets

US stocks traded mixed on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones (US30) Index up 0.50% and the S&P 500 (US500) Index down 0.50%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative 1.28% and fell to an 8-week low. Stocks gave up early gains on Tuesday and traded mixed amid escalating geopolitical risks after the Israeli military struck a Hezbollah target in Beirut, threatening to widen conflict in the Middle East. A drop in shares of chip companies also pressured the broader market on Tuesday.

Tuesday’s US economic news was stronger than expected, hawking Fed policy and weighing on stocks. The S&P CoreLogic composite-20 US home price index for May rose 6.81% y/y, stronger than expectations of +6.60% y/y. The US June JOLTS open job openings fell by 46,000 to 8.184 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 8.000 million.

The US Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting today. The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds rate at a 23-year high of 5.25-5.50% for the 8th consecutive meeting in July 2024. However, policymakers will likely signal a possible rate cut in September amid signs of cooling inflation and a strong but slowing labor market. Annualized core inflation fell to 3% in June, the lowest level since June 2023, and core inflation hit a more than three-year low of 3.3%.

Microsoft (MSFT) shares fell 2.7% after the disappointing news. The US tech major said Tuesday it will spend more money on artificial intelligence infrastructure even as growth in its cloud business slows, which is another sign that the return on big technology investments may take longer than Wall Street had hoped.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.49%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.42%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed 0.76%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.22% on Tuesday.

Airbus (AIR) reported strong results for the first half of 2024 on Tuesday. The company delivered 323 commercial airplanes, up from a year earlier, and boosted revenue to 28.8 billion euros. The company also reported an order book of 8,585 commercial aircraft at the end of June 2024. “The main success was achieved in Airbus’ commercial segment.

WTI crude prices rose to $76.2 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering from a more than 1% drop in the previous session, as rising tensions in the Middle East posed risks to oil supplies. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran early Wednesday after Israel said it had killed a top Hezbollah commander in an airstrike in Beirut on Tuesday in response to an attack on the Golan Heights over the weekend. At the same time, a drawdown in US inventories is driving prices higher. API data showed US crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels in the week ending July 26, marking the fifth week of inventory declines and the biggest drop in a month.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.15%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.93%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.37% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.46%. Hong Kong stocks rose by 1.5% in early trading on Wednesday amid widespread gains across all sectors. Traders perked up after Beijing said it would step up fiscal policy measures and deepen tax reforms to spur economic recovery.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its key short-term interest rate at its July 2024 meeting to 0.25% from the previous range of 0 to 0.1% set in March. The central bank added that it will reduce monthly bond purchases to JPY3 trillion in January-March 2026 from the current pace of JPY6 trillion to conduct a more normalized monetary policy. Starting in August, the BOJ will offer to buy JPY400 billion worth of 5 and 10-year JGBs in each transaction, reversing the current offer range of JPY400-550 billion. The changes are part of the central bank’s plan to shrink its nearly $5 trillion balance sheet and gradually withdraw from the bond market. In its quarterly forecast, the BOJ predicted core inflation in fiscal 2024 will be around 2.5%, down from its April forecast of 2.8%.

The ASX 200 Index (AU200) jumped 1.75% to close at 8,092 on Wednesday, hitting a new all-time high as softer-than-expected domestic inflation data refuted bets on another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The data showed that Australia’s core inflation slowed more than expected in the second quarter annually and quarterly to 3.9% and 0.8%, respectively. Markets now believe that the probability of an RBA rate cut in November is around 50%, much earlier than previous forecasts that suggested a move by April next year.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,436.44 −27.10 (−0.50%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,743.33 +203.40 (+0.50%)

DAX (DE40) 18,411.18 +90.51 (+0.49%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,292.35 +6.64 (+0.08%)

USD Index 104.47 −0.09 (−0.09%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Quarterly Outlook Report (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Statement (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Press Conference (m/m) at 21:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

USD/JPY Plummets as Bank of Japan Tightens Policy

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has experienced a sharp decline, currently at 152.79, following decisive monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In a significant shift, the BoJ raised its interest rate to 0.25% per annum and unveiled plans to scale back monthly bond purchases to approximately 3 trillion yen by Q1 2026. Further interest rate hikes and monetary policy adjustments are on the table if economic activities and inflation pressures align with projections.

This move comes as the BoJ faces increasing pressure from government and financial authorities to mitigate the yen’s weakness and curb rising inflation. The yen’s devaluation has been a pressing concern, intensifying inflationary pressures within the country.

Recent data from Japan provided mixed signals: retail sales reached a four-month high in June, indicating robust consumer activity, whereas industrial production showed a smaller-than-expected decline.

As the market continues to digest the BoJ’s new stance, the USD/JPY pair shows potential for further declines, especially if the market fully assimilates these recent adjustments from the Japanese central bank.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair formed a consolidation range around 153.03, extending between 155.20 and 152.10. Following a breakout below this range, there is a visible downward trajectory towards 151.26, potentially extending to 150.77. The MACD indicator, positioned below zero with a downward trajectory, supports this bearish outlook.

After completing a decline to 151.57 and a subsequent correction to 153.88, the market is poised for another downward movement towards 151.35, potentially continuing to 150.77. This bearish forecast is bolstered by the Stochastic oscillator, below the 50 mark and trending downwards, indicating continued selling pressure.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

‘Twisters’ movie: Two tornado scientists take us inside the real world of storm chasing

By Yvette Richardson, Penn State and Paul Markowski, Penn State


Scientists in a truck outfitted with instruments race toward a storm.
National Severe Storms Lab/NOAA

Storm-chasing for science can be exciting and stressful – we know, because we do it. It has also been essential for developing today’s understanding of how tornadoes form and how they behave.

In 1996, the movie “Twister” with Helen Hunt brought storm-chasing scientists into the public imagination and inspired a generation of atmospheric scientists.

With the new “Twisters” movie hitting theaters, we’ve been getting questions about storm-chasing – or storm intercepts, as we call them.

Here are some answers about what scientists who do this kind of fieldwork are really up to when they race off after storms.

A tornado near Duke, Oklahoma, with a wheat field blowing in the foreground.
Scientists with the National Severe Storms Lab ‘intercepted’ this tornado to
collect data using mobile radar and other instruments on May 24, 2024.
National Severe Storms Lab

What does a day of storm-chasing really look like?

The morning of a chase day starts with a good breakfast, because there might not be any chance to eat a good meal later in the day. The team looks at the weather conditions, the National Weather Service computer forecast models and outlooks from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center to determine the target.

Our goal is to figure out where tornadoes are most likely to occur that day. Temperature, moisture and winds, and how these change with height above the ground, all provide clues.

There is a “hurry up and wait” cadence to a storm chase day. We want to get into position quickly, but then we’re often waiting for storms to develop.

A radar image shows a storm cell with a hook at the back suggesting a tornado could form.

A ‘hook echo’ on radar, typically a curl at the back of a storm cell, is one sign that a tornado could form.
The hook reflects precipitation wrapping around the back side of the updraft.

National Severe Storms Lab

Storms often take time to develop before they’re capable of producing tornadoes. So we watch the storm carefully on radar and with our eyes, if possible, staying well ahead of it until it matures. Often, we’ll watch multiple storms and look for signs that one might be more likely to generate tornadoes.

Once the mission scientist declares a deployment, everyone scrambles to get into position.

We use a lot of different instruments to track and measure tornadoes, and there is an art to determining when to deploy them. Too early, and the tornado might not form where the instruments are. Too late, and we’ve missed it. Each instrument needs to be in a specific location relative to the tornado. Some need to be deployed well ahead of the storm and then stay stationary. Others are car-mounted and are driven back and forth within the storm.

A row of seven minivans, SUVS and jeeps with racks on top holding the sorts of instruments one might see in a weather station.

Vehicle-mounted equipment can act as mobile weather stations known as mesonets.
These were used in the VORTEX2 research project. Dozens of scientists, including the authors,
succeeded in recording the entire life cycle of a supercell tornado during VORTEX2 in 2009.

Yvette Richardson

If all goes well, team members will be concentrating on the data coming in. Some will be launching weather balloons at various distances from the tornado, while others will be placing “pods” containing weather instruments directly in the path of the tornado.

A whole network of observing stations will have been set up across the storm, with radars collecting data from multiple angles, photographers capturing the storm from multiple angles, and instrumented vehicles transecting key areas of the storm.

Not all of our work is focused on the tornado itself. We often target areas around the tornado or within other parts of the storm to understand how the rotation forms. Theories suggest that this rotation can be generated by temperature variations within the storm’s precipitation region, potentially many miles from where the tornado forms.

An illustration shows a thunderstorm cloud with an updraft with a smaller downdraft behind it. Both are spinning. A spinning football indicates the type of spin.
Formation of a tornado: Changes in wind speed and direction with altitude, known as wind shear, are associated with horizontal spin, similar to that of a football. As this spinning air is drawn into the storm’s updraft, the updraft rotates. A separate air stream descends through a precipitation-driven downdraft and acquires horizontal spin because of temperature differences along the air stream. This spinning air can be tilted into the vertical and sucked upward by the supercell’s updraft, contracting the spin near the ground into a tornado.
Paul Markowski/Penn State

Through all of this, the teams stay in contact using text messages and software that allows us to see everyone’s position relative to the latest radar images. We’re also watching the forecast for the next day so we can plan where to go next and find hotel rooms and, hopefully, a late dinner.

What do all those instruments tell you about the storm?

One of the most important tools of storm-chasing is weather radar. It captures what’s happening with precipitation and winds above the ground.

We use several types of radars, typically attached to trucks so we can move fast. Some transmit with a longer wavelength that helps us see farther into a storm, but at the cost of a broader width to their beam, resulting in a fuzzier picture. They are good for collecting data across the entire storm.

Smaller-wavelength radars cannot penetrate as far into the precipitation, but they do offer the high-resolution view necessary to capture small-scale phenomena like tornadoes. We put these radars closer to the developing tornado.

An inside look at some of the mobile systems and tools scientists use in storm-chasing, including how team members monitor storms in real time.

We also monitor wind, air pressure, temperature and humidity along the ground using various instruments attached to moving vehicles, or by temporarily deploying stationary arrays of these instruments ahead of the approaching storm. Some of these are meant to be hit by the tornado.

Weather balloons provide crucial data, too. Some are designed to ascend through the atmosphere and capture the conditions outside the storm. Others travel through the storm itself, measuring the important temperature variations in the rain-cooled air beneath the storm. Scientists are now using drones in the same way in parts of the storm.

Symbols show the paths of over 70 balloon-borne probes that the authors’ team launched into a supercell thunderstorm. The probes, carried by the wind, mapped the temperature in the storm’s downdraft region, which can be a critical source of rotation for tornadoes. Luke LeBel/Penn State

All of this gives scientists insight into the processes happening throughout the storm before and during tornado development and throughout the tornado’s lifetime.

How do you stay safe while chasing tornadoes?

Storms can be very dangerous and unpredictable, so it’s important to always stay on top of the radar and watch the storm.

A storm can cycle, developing a new tornado downstream of the previous one. Tornadoes can change direction, particularly as they are dying or when they have a complex structure with multiple funnels. Storm chasers know to look at the entire storm, not just the tornado, and to be on alert for other storms that might sneak up. An escape plan based on the storm’s expected motion and the road network is essential.

In 1947, the Thunderstorm Project was the first large-scale U.S. scientific study of thunderstorms and the first to use radar and airplanes. Other iconic projects followed, including ones that deployed a Totable Tornado Observatory, or Toto, which inspired the ‘Dorothy’ instrument in the movie ‘Twister.’

Scientists take calculated risks when they’re storm chasing – enough to collect crucial data, but never putting their teams in too much danger.

It turns out that driving is actually the most dangerous part of storm-chasing, particularly when roads are wet and visibility is poor – as is often the case at the end of the day. During the chase, the driving danger can be compounded by erratic driving of other storm chasers and traffic jams around storms.

What happens to all the data you collect while storm-chasing?

It would be nice to have immediate eureka moments, but the results take time.

After we collect the data, we spend years analyzing it. Combining data from all the instruments to get a complete picture of the storm and how it evolved takes time and patience. But having data on the wind, temperature, relative humidity and pressure from many different angles and instruments allows us to test theories about how tornadoes develop.

Although the analysis process is slow, the discoveries are often as exciting as the tornado itself.The Conversation

About the Authors:

Yvette Richardson, Professor of Meteorology, Senior Associate Dean for Undergraduate Education, Penn State and Paul Markowski, Distinguished Professor of Meteorology, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Oil prices fell to June lows. Traders are waiting for Australian inflation data

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.12%, while the S&P 500 (US500) was up 0.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.07%. The broad market rose on Monday and extended last Friday’s rally on expectations of a Fed rate cut in September after the June Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, declined as expected. Rising shares of chip companies also boosted the overall market on Monday after ON Semiconductor reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings per share.

Stock investors will continue to pay attention to technology stocks as key earnings reports are due this week. This week, companies such as Microsoft (MSFT) will report on Tuesday, Meta (META) on Wednesday, and Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday.

The US economic news on Monday was weaker than expected and negatively impacted stocks after the Dallas Fed’s survey of overall manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell by 2.4 to 17.5, weaker than expectations for a rise to 14.2.

The major central banks will meet this week to decide on monetary policy. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to unveil details of plans to reduce monthly bond purchases after a two-day meeting on Wednesday and possibly signal it will start raising interest rates at its September meeting. The US Federal Reserve is likely to signal its intention to cut interest rates in September after its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in a 25 bps chance of a rate cut at 4% for this week’s FOMC meeting and 100% for the next meeting on September 17–18. On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut the bank rate by 25 bps to 5.00% from 5.25%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell 0.53%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.98%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.43%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.08%. According to preliminary data, the French economy grew 0.3% QoQ in Q2 2024, matching the upwardly revised Q1 figure but beating market estimates of 0.2% growth. This was the strongest quarterly growth since Q2 2023.

WTI crude prices fell to $75.6 a barrel on Tuesday, hitting their lowest level since early June, amid lingering concerns about demand from major consumer China. The latest data showed that China’s total fuel oil imports fell by 11% in the first half of 2024. Concerns about the outlook for the Chinese economy intensified after disappointing GDP data and the unexpected rate cut by the PBOC last week to stimulate growth, which negatively impacted the market. In addition, concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased slightly after reports that Hezbollah said it was not seeking to provoke a full-scale war with Israel.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 2.13%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.39%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.28%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.86%.

The Australian dollar is holding near $0.655 as traders avoid making big bets ahead of the release of key domestic inflation data that could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next move. Markets expect Australia’s annual core inflation rate to remain at 4% in the second quarter, well above the central bank’s target range of 2–3%, bolstering the case for another rate hike in August. Traders currently see a 22% chance of the RBA raising rates by 25 basis points next month, while the likelihood of a rate cut before April next year is ruled out.

Japan’s unemployment rate in June 2024 was 2.5%, compared to market estimates of 2.6%, which had also been recorded in the previous four months. It was the lowest unemployment rate since January.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,463.54 +4.44 (+0.081%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,539.93 −49.41 (−0.12%)

DAX (DE40) 18,320.67 −96.88 (−0.53%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,292.35 +6.64 (+0.08%)

USD Index 104.57 +0.25 (+0.24%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German GDP (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German CPI (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

USDJPY: Braced for BoJ & Fed combo

By ForexTime 

  • USDJPY could see extreme volatility this week
  • Over past year BoJ decision triggered moves of ↑ 1.1%
  • Fed decision sparked moves of ↑ 0.6% & ↓ 1.3% over past year
  • Bloomberg FX model: 77% USDJPY – (151.30 – 157.99)
  • Key technical level – 155.00

A super central bank combo featuring the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Federal Reserve (Fed) could rattle the USDJPY!

That’s right, markets are forecasting this to be one of the most volatile weeks for the currency pair this year.

Vol

After trending lower this month and touching levels not seen since early May 2024, a significant move could be on the horizon.

Weekly

On the daily charts, a technical bounce seems to be taking place with prices lingering around resistance at 155.00.

Daily

This rebound may be the product of yen weakness as investors question whether the BoJ will hike rates tomorrow.

weakness

Nevertheless, this is a big week for the USDJPY with fresh trading opportunities on the horizon. 

This is what you need to keep an eye on.

     1) BoJ rate decision

Expectations are mixed over what actions the Bank of Japan will take this month.

Traders are currently pricing in a 50% probability that the BoJ hikes rates by 10bp in July.

Given how inflation and wage growth have picked up, this presents an argument for higher rates. However, the BoJ has a solid record of disappointing market expectations.

  • The USDJPY may trade lower if the BOJ hikes interest rates and signals more hikes down the road.
  • Should the central bank leave rates unchanged and sound more dovish than expected, this could push the USDJPY higher.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the BoJ decision has only triggered upside moves on the USDJPY with prices rising as much as 1.1% a 6-hour window post-release.

 

    2) Fed rate decision

No changes to US interest rates are expected. However, much focus will be on the press conference which could offer fresh clues on future policy moves.

Traders have priced in a 25-basis point Fed cut by September with a 75% probability of another cut by November.

  • The USDJPY may fall if the Fed strikes a dovish note and signals that rates will be cut in September.
  • Should the Fed sound more hawkish than expected, the USDJPY could rise.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the Fed decision has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.6% or declines of 1.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

 

    3) Technical forces

Prices remain under pressure on the daily charts despite the recent rebound. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving away from oversold conditions, prices are still below the 50 & 100-day SMA.  

  • A solid breakout and daily close above 155.00 may open a path toward the 100-day SMA at 155.60, 157.00 and 157.80.
  • Should 155.00 prove reliable resistance, this could send prices towards 153.70, 153.00 and the 200-day SMA at 151.70.

USDJPY2

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 74% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 151.30 – 157.99 range over the next one-week period.


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