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Archive for Stock Market News – Page 2

04 Feb

5 Large Cap Stocks are latest to be added to Watchlist in Q1 2025

By InvestMacro Research

The first quarter of 2025 is underway and we wanted to highlight some of the top companies that have been added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist in the past week. The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm.

The algo examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and to update our Watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices (this is not a timing tool).

Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea.

As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. A stock added to our list is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security.

Here we go with 5 of our Top Stocks scored in Q1 2025:

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG):

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (Symbol: HIG) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. HIG scored a 66 in our fundamental rating system on February 3rd.

At time of writing, only 4.67% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 11,112 scores in our earnings database. HIG has been a staple on our list, making the Watchlist a total of 7 times and the company’s score rose by 1 point from our last update. HIG is a Large Cap stock and part of the Financial Services sector. The industry focus for HIG is Insurance – Diversified.

HIG has beat earnings-per-share expectations two out of the past three quarters and has a dividend of close to 1.85 percent with a payout ratio near 20 percent. The HIG stock price has slightly under-performed the Financial Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a 27.61 percent rise compared to the 31.35 benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.

Company Website: https://www.thehartford.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG)10.927.610.94
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF18.131.351.0

 

* Data through February 03, 2025

Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC):

Northrop Grumman Corporation (Symbol: NOC) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. NOC scored a 58 in our fundamental rating system on February 3rd.

At time of writing, only 8.03% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 11,112 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 2 times and jumped by 113 system points from our last update. NOC is a Large Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for NOC is Aerospace & Defense.

NOC has beat the earnings-per-share expectations in the past four quarters. Northrop’s dividend is currently at 1.68 percent and has a payout ratio around 30 percent at time of writing. The stock price has under-performed the Industrials Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a 11.27 percent gain compared to the 21.27 benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense company worldwide. The company’s Aeronautics Systems segment designs, develops, manufactures, integrates, and sustains aircraft systems.

Company Website: https://www.northropgrumman.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)17.211.270.35
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI26.121.271.1

 

* Data through February 03, 2025

Teradyne, Inc. (TER):

Teradyne, Inc. (Symbol: TER) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. TER scored a 50 in our fundamental rating system on January 31st.

At time of writing, only 8.03% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 11,112 scores in our earnings database. This stock has never been on our Watchlist previously and rose by 76 system points from our last update. TER is a Large Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for TER is Semiconductors.

Teradyne has beat the earnings-per-share expectations in each of the past four quarters. TER’s dividend is currently a modest 0.43 percent and has a payout ratio of around just 14 percent at time of writing. The stock price has under-performed the Technology Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a 10.71 percent gain compared to the 14.25 benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Teradyne, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and supports automatic test equipment worldwide. The company operates through Semiconductor Test, System Test, Industrial Automation, and Wireless Test segments.

Company Website: https://www.teradyne.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Teradyne, Inc. (TER)33.510.711.52
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK36.914.251.2

 

* Data through February 03, 2025

Synchrony Financial (SYF):

Synchrony Financial (Symbol: SYF) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. SYF scored a 68 in our fundamental rating system on January 30th.

At time of writing, only 4.67% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 11,112 scores in our earnings database. This stock has been on our Watchlist a total of 7 times and rose by 6 system points from our last update. SYF is a Large Cap stock and part of the Financial Services sector. The industry focus for SYF is Financial – Credit Services.

SYF missed their earnings-per-share expectations this quarter after beating expectations in the previous three quarters. Synchrony’s dividend is currently at approximately 1.50 percent and has a payout ratio of around just 12 percent at time of writing. The stock price has outperformed the Financial Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a whopping 74.13 percent gain compared to the 31.35 percent benchmark return. SYF is currently trading near the top of its range with a recent overbought level on the weekly relative strength index (RSI).

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Synchrony Financial, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a consumer financial services company in the United States. It provides credit products, such as credit cards, commercial credit products, and consumer installment loans.

Company Website: https://www.synchrony.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Synchrony Financial (SYF)7.974.131.59
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF18.131.351.0

 

* Data through February 03, 2025

Logitech International S.A. (LOGI):

Logitech International S.A. (Symbol: LOGI) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. LOGI scored a 65 in our fundamental rating system on January 30th.

At time of writing, only 4.67% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 11,112 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 3 times and rose by 48 system points from our last update. LOGI is a Large Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for LOGI is Computer Hardware.

Logitech has beaten the earnings-per-share expectations for each of the past four quarters and has a dividend of close to 1.40 percent with a payout ratio currently near 28 percent. The LOGI stock price has ever-so-slightly outperformed the Technology Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a 15.37 percent rise compared to the 14.25 percent benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Logitech International S.A., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets products that connect people to digital and cloud experiences worldwide. The company offers pointing devices, such as wireless mouse; corded and cordless keyboards, living room keyboards, and keyboard-and-mouse combinations; PC webcams; and keyboards for tablets and smartphones, as well as other accessories for mobile devices.

Company Website: https://www.logitech.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Logitech International S.A. (LOGI)22.715.370.56
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK36.914.251.2

 

* Data through February 03, 2025

By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Company descriptions provided by sec.gov.

Opinions QuantStock Stock Market Ideas Stock Market News
01 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (19,561 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (12,202 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2,676 contracts) also experiencing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-21,385 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-1,008 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-593 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-305 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (87 percent) and the Russell-Mini (67 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (46 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (51.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (70.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (56.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (53.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (63.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (64.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (86.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (67.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (66.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (67.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (54.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (56.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (46.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (42.7 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Russell-Mini (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-9 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-0.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (15.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-2.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (1.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-9.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-8.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-26.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-14.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-12.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-5.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (4.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-17.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -49,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,060 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.349.67.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.234.28.1
– Net Position:-49,44550,961-1,516
– Gross Longs:63,710164,19025,270
– Gross Shorts:113,155113,22926,786
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.651.371.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.42.3-9.3

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -56,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.471.013.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.274.97.1
– Net Position:-56,154-79,303135,457
– Gross Longs:252,5951,444,016279,072
– Gross Shorts:308,7491,523,319143,615
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.423.790.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.45.8-9.1

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.564.716.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.469.214.3
– Net Position:1,734-3,7692,035
– Gross Longs:14,70354,45514,096
– Gross Shorts:12,96958,22412,061
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.132.866.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.413.6-21.5

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.050.915.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.566.810.9
– Net Position:30,691-42,75812,067
– Gross Longs:85,687136,28541,209
– Gross Shorts:54,996179,04329,142
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.77.677.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.44.71.9

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.677.38.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.875.84.4
– Net Position:-22,0356,38715,648
– Gross Longs:49,368328,98934,288
– Gross Shorts:71,403322,60218,640
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.927.968.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.817.6-19.9

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,063 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,758 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.473.020.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.951.516.6
– Net Position:-3,0632,586477
– Gross Longs:7678,7652,473
– Gross Shorts:3,8306,1791,996
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.144.552.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.17.0-7.9

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.587.62.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.081.81.7
– Net Position:-28,51525,4943,021
– Gross Longs:41,888384,81510,617
– Gross Shorts:70,403359,3217,596
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.256.932.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.16.8-43.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
26 Jan

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Nasdaq & DowJones Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (7,955 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (881 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (60 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-45,173 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-19,932 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-4,166 contracts) and with the VIX (-1,330 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (71 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (68 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (68 percent) and DowJones-Mini (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (70.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (72.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (53.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (60.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (64.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (62.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (67.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (55.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (81.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (56.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (42.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (48.1 percent)

VIX tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-17 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (15.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (5.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (1.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (11.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-26.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-29.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-12.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (7.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-17.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (5.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.045.411.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.738.410.6
– Net Position:-28,06025,4292,631
– Gross Longs:65,618165,57641,409
– Gross Shorts:93,678140,14738,778
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.929.688.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.5-17.313.2

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -75,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -45,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.071.413.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.774.47.0
– Net Position:-75,715-60,433136,148
– Gross Longs:263,8151,453,774279,487
– Gross Shorts:339,5301,514,207143,339
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.526.591.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.10.9-5.5

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.465.117.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.571.913.6
– Net Position:2,327-5,5643,237
– Gross Longs:13,37753,19014,317
– Gross Shorts:11,05058,75411,080
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.130.273.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.215.6-11.9

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.153.217.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.867.610.1
– Net Position:18,489-36,65418,165
– Gross Longs:71,503135,40243,768
– Gross Shorts:53,014172,05625,603
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.814.289.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.514.27.4

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,027 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -19,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.676.78.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.476.14.3
– Net Position:-21,0272,54718,480
– Gross Longs:50,530334,23537,263
– Gross Shorts:71,557331,68818,783
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.625.576.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.916.5-22.6

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 60 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,818 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.670.221.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.945.320.7
– Net Position:-2,7582,70949
– Gross Longs:9377,6472,305
– Gross Shorts:3,6954,9382,256
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.745.444.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.820.3-40.5

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,166 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.688.22.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.781.81.8
– Net Position:-31,19127,8993,292
– Gross Longs:37,252384,14611,192
– Gross Shorts:68,443356,2477,900
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.759.733.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.118.4-10.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
24 Jan

Week Ahead: Big Tech back in the spotlight

By ForexTime 

  • 4 of “Magnificent 7” tech companies set to publish earnings
  • Combined market cap of 4 tech titans over $9.5 trillion
  • Meta could move over 7% ↑ or ↓ post-earnings
  • Apple second largest company in the world reports results Thursday
  • Beyond earnings, central banks & Trump in focus

Major central bank decisions and earnings from the largest companies in the world will dominate the week ahead:

Monday, 27th Jan

  • CN50: China industrial profits, manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI
  • GER40: Germany IFO business climate
  • EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
  • SG20: Singapore unemployment

Tuesday, 28th Jan

  • USDInd: US consumer confidence, durable goods
  • US30: Boeing earnings

Wednesday, 29th Jan

  • AU200: Australia CPI
  • EU50: ASML earnings
  • CAD: Canada rate decision
  • SEK: Sweden rate decision
  • US500: Tesla, Microsoft, Meta earnings, Fed rate decision

Thursday, 30th Jan

  • EUR: ECB rate decision, consumer confidence, unemployment, GDP
  • GER40: Germany GDP
  • ZAR: South Africa rate decision
  • USDInd: US GDP, jobless claims
  • NAS100: Apple earnings

Friday, 31st Jan

  • GER40: Germany CPI, unemployment
  • JP225: Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales
  • RUS2000: US personal income & spending, PCE inflation

Big tech earnings may hijack the headlines with the likes of Tesla, Microsoft, Meta and Apple set to reveal their latest quarterly results.

These major players with a combined market cap of over $9.5 trillion could provide fresh insights into how the industry fared last quarter.

Artificial intelligence is still a hot topic, but investors should consider a new variable President Trump. Whether it’s tougher tariffs or softer regulations, Trump is bound to influence big tech over the next four years.

Here is what you need to know:

    1) Microsoft

Microsoft reports its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Wednesday 29th after US markets close.

Its shares are up 6% year-to-date, adding to the 12% gains secured in 2024. Microsoft has invested tens of billions of dollars into AI, but investors have yet to see the returns expected. So, the tech giant has little room for error with exceptional results required to justify its $3.32 trillion valuation. Much focus will be on the Azure side of the business which is likely to remain the driver of growth.

Markets forecast a 3.6% move, either up or down, for Microsoft stocks post-earnings.

microsoft

    2) Meta

Meta is set to report fourth-quarter earnings after US markets close on Wednesday 29th.

Shares of the tech company have gained 9% this year, trading very close to all-time highs. Markets expect a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenue growth, but all eyes will be on the advertising business. Any insight into how the TikTok ban in the US will impact Meta’s ad sales and updates on Llama 4 will be welcomed by investors.

Markets are forecasting a 7.4% move, either up or down, for Meta stocks post-earnings.

meta2

    3) Tesla

Tesla is also set to release its fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the close of US trading.

A few weeks ago, Tesla reported its first decline in annual deliveries which hit sentiment toward its shares. Prices are up only 2% year-to-date, adding to the 62.5% gains secured in 2024. Any updates on the autonomous driving software, new vehicle launches, and revenues will be perused by investors to evaluate its business outlook.

Markets are forecasting an 8.2% move, either up or down, for Tesla stocks post-earnings.

tesla

    4) Apple

The second most valuable company in the world with a market cap of $3.36 trillion reports its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday 30th after US markets close.

Apple kicked off 2025 in a rough fashion, falling over 10% YTD amid growing concerns over lagging sales. Still, first-quarter revenues are expected to rise 3.8% year-on-year to $124.2 billion compared to $119.6 billion in the same quarter last year.

Nevertheless, investors will keep their eyes on the performance of iPhone sales and any initiatives integrating AI across its ecosystem.

Markets are projecting a 4% move, either up or down, for Apple stocks post-earnings.

apple

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
21 Jan

5 Stocks Ideas from December & January including 3 Tech Companies

By InvestMacro Research

The first quarter of 2025 is underway and we wanted to highlight some of the companies that have been recently added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist. The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm and these companies made the list in the last 30 days.

The algo examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and to update our Watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices (this is not a timing tool).

Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets at the current time and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. A stock added to our list is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security.

Here we go with 5 of our Top Stocks scored in December 2024 & so far in January 2025:

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU):

Micron Technology, Inc. (Symbol: MU) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. MU scored a 62 in our fundamental rating system in late December 2024.

At time of writing, only 4.77% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,772 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 77 system points from our last update.

MU is a Large Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for MU is Semiconductors.

MU has beat earnings expectations four consecutive quarters and has a dividend of 0.43 percent with a payout ratio near just 7 percent. The MU stock price has outperformed the Technology Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks by a small margin with a gain of nearly +26.00 percent.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Micron Technology, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Compute and Networking Business Unit, Mobile Business Unit, Storage Business Unit, and Embedded Business Unit. It provides memory and storage technologies comprises DRAM products, which are dynamic random access memory semiconductor devices with low latency that provide high-speed data retrieval.

Company Website: https://www.micron.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)31.325.921.18
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK38.222.751.2

 

* Data through January 21, 2025

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG):

Conagra Brands, Inc. (Symbol: CAG) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. CAG scored a 64 in our fundamental rating system in December 2024.

At time of writing, only 4.77% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,772 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 4 times and rose by 23 system points from our last update.

CAG is a Large Cap stock and part of the Consumer Defensive sector. The industry focus for CAG is Packaged Foods.

CAG has beat earnings expectations in three out of the past four quarters and has a dividend of 5.42 percent with a payout ratio around 68 percent. The CAG stock price has under-performed the Consumer Defensive Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks and has fallen by -10.74 percent compared with the benchmark gain of +6.91 percent.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Conagra Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a consumer packaged goods food company in North America. The company operates in four segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice.

Company Website: https://www.conagrabrands.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)25.0-10.740.33
– Benchmark Symbol: XLP22.76.910.6

 

* Data through January 21, 2025

TD SYNNEX Corporation (SNX):

TD SYNNEX Corporation (Symbol: SNX) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. SNX scored a 65 in our fundamental rating system on January 13, 2025.

At time of writing, only 4.77% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,772 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 4 times and rose by 41 system points from our last update.

SNX is a Large Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for SNX is Technology Distributors.

SNX has beat earnings expectations two quarters in a row and in three out of the past four quarters. SNX sports a dividend of 1.28 percent with a payout ratio around 24 percent. The SNX stock price has beaten the Technology Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks and has risen by 32.81 percent compared with the benchmark gain of +22.75 percent.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

TD SYNNEX Corporation provides business process services in the United States and internationally. The company distributes PC systems, mobile phones and accessories, printers, peripherals, supplies, endpoint technology software, consumer electronics, information technology (IT) systems including data center server and storage solutions, system components, software, networking, communications and security equipment, technology software, and converged and hyper-converged infrastructure, as well as computing components.

Company Website: https://www.tdsynnex.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: TD SYNNEX Corporation (SNX)17.732.811.4
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK38.222.751.2

 

* Data through January 21, 2025

Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC):

Science Applications International Corporation (Symbol: SAIC) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. SAIC scored a 50 in our fundamental rating system in December 2024.

At time of writing, only 8.20% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 10,772 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 46 system points from our last update.

SAIC is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for SAIC is Information Technology Services.

SAIC has beat earnings expectations two quarters in a row and gives out a dividend of 1.28 percent with a payout ratio around 16 percent. The SAIC stock price has under-performed the Technology Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a shortfall of -8.2 percent compared with the benchmark gain of +22.75 percent.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Science Applications International Corporation provides technical, engineering, and enterprise information technology (IT) services primarily in the United States. The company’s offerings include engineering; technology integration; IT modernization; maintenance of ground and maritime systems; logistics; training and simulation; operation and program support services; and end-to-end services, such as design, development, integration, deployment,

Company Website: https://www.saic.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)20.2-8.20.69
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK38.222.751.2

 

* Data through January 21, 2025

Wipro Limited (WIT):

Wipro Limited (Symbol: WIT) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. WIT scored a 53 in our fundamental rating system on January 21, 2025.

At time of writing, only 8.20% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 10,772 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 23 system points from our last update.

WIT is a Large Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for WIT is Information Technology Services.

WIT has beat earnings expectations in two out of the past fur quarters and met expectations in the others. WIT gives out a dividend of 2.02 percent with a payout ratio around 30 percent. The WIT stock price has slightly under-performed the Technology Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks with a gain of 20.7 percent compared with the benchmark gain of +22.75 percent.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Wipro Limited operates as information technology (IT), consulting, and business process services company worldwide. It operates through three segments: IT Services, IT Products, and India State Run Enterprise Services (ISRE). The IT Services segment offers IT and IT-enabled services, including digital strategy advisory, customer-centric design, technology and IT consulting, custom application design, development, re-engineering and maintenance, s

Company Website: https://www.wipro.com

 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Wipro Limited (WIT)27.120.70.71
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK38.222.751.2

 

* Data through January 21, 2025

By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Company descriptions provided by sec.gov.

Opinions Stock Market Ideas Stock Market News
19 Jan

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led higher by S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (31,661 contracts) with the VIX (4,324 contracts), the Russell-Mini (2,089 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (626 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-8,236 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (-1,313 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-244 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Russell-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Russell-Mini (81 percent) and the VIX (72 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (72.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (68.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (60.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (62.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (64.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (55.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (68.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (81.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (79.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (42.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (42.9 percent)

S&P500-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (12 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (7 percent) and the VIX (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-15 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-10.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (11.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (2.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-15.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-29.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-1.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (7.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (-3.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (4.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (3.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.644.08.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.334.99.2
– Net Position:-26,73028,181-1,451
– Gross Longs:63,637135,63626,958
– Gross Shorts:90,367107,45528,409
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.131.972.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-2.8-12.9

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -30,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 31,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,203 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.571.613.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.075.87.4
– Net Position:-30,542-85,660116,202
– Gross Longs:256,3581,462,893268,436
– Gross Shorts:286,9001,548,553152,234
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.228.183.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.6-6.3-12.8

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,759 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.061.719.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.270.212.5
– Net Position:1,446-6,9605,514
– Gross Longs:14,67950,47915,757
– Gross Shorts:13,23357,43910,243
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.728.186.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.79.714.4

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 10,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.857.715.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.667.210.4
– Net Position:10,534-24,05013,516
– Gross Longs:62,849146,45840,041
– Gross Shorts:52,315170,50826,525
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.527.780.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.718.14.3

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.973.37.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.276.74.1
– Net Position:-1,095-15,45716,552
– Gross Longs:67,859332,60135,166
– Gross Shorts:68,954348,05818,614
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.214.571.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.2-0.2-28.9

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.170.520.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.345.218.6
– Net Position:-2,8182,628190
– Gross Longs:9467,3172,117
– Gross Shorts:3,7644,6891,927
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.144.846.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.29.6-19.1

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -27,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.388.72.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.583.21.7
– Net Position:-27,02523,9353,090
– Gross Longs:36,119386,37310,665
– Gross Shorts:63,144362,4387,575
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.658.232.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.8-2.7-8.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
21 Dec

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (43,471 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (1,741 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (509 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-13,702 contracts), the VIX (-3,818 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-3,550 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-1,571 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (95 percent) and the Russell-Mini (82 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the Nikkei 225 (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (52.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (55.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (58.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (52.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (72.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (95.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (94.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (81.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (80.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (44.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (58.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (49.4 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (31 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-23 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-29.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-39.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-22.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-21.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (2.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (31.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (47.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-9.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (-15.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-21.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (18.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.946.88.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.232.77.8
– Net Position:-48,98848,253735
– Gross Longs:67,787159,78127,288
– Gross Shorts:116,775111,52826,553
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.049.081.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.330.0-12.0

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 43,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.169.112.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.673.76.6
– Net Position:-39,862-118,471158,333
– Gross Longs:313,4201,793,629328,497
– Gross Shorts:353,2821,912,100170,164
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.823.5100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.915.815.3

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.756.018.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.668.413.3
– Net Position:7,521-13,1455,624
– Gross Longs:20,78059,00919,672
– Gross Shorts:13,25972,15414,048
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.519.294.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.85.89.3

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.054.613.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.969.19.8
– Net Position:36,082-47,17411,092
– Gross Longs:94,151177,34642,919
– Gross Shorts:58,069224,52031,827
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.12.975.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.0-20.9-0.9

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.773.38.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.877.24.4
– Net Position:-416-22,28022,696
– Gross Longs:72,290417,35247,882
– Gross Shorts:72,706439,63225,186
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.710.388.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.30.822.5

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,603 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.871.523.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.142.312.6
– Net Position:-4,1743,0291,145
– Gross Longs:5017,4192,456
– Gross Shorts:4,6754,3901,311
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.647.665.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.211.81.8

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.184.63.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.881.11.2
– Net Position:-31,66519,84211,823
– Gross Longs:39,277470,65418,670
– Gross Shorts:70,942450,8126,847
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.0 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.856.775.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.4-23.124.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
18 Dec

What’s next for Albertsons after calling off its $25B grocery merger with Kroger: More lawsuits

By Christine P. Bartholomew, University at Buffalo 

Albertsons announced on Dec. 11, 2024, that it had called off an attempted merger with Kroger and would sue Kroger for breach of contract. The US$25 billion deal, first announced in 2022, would have combined Cincinnati-based Kroger, already the largest traditional U.S. supermarket chain, with Boise, Idaho-based Albertsons, which is currently the third-biggest grocer.

The Conversation U.S. asked Christine P. Bartholomew, a professor at the University at Buffalo School of Law who researches consumer protection, to explain how the merger failed and why it matters.

Which supermarkets belong to the two companies?

Kroger has 28 subsidiaries with nearly 2,800 supermarkets, including Harris Teeter, Dillon’s, Smith’s, King Soopers, Fry’s, City Market, Owen’s, JayC, Pay Less, Baker’s Gerbes, Pick‘n Save, Metro Market, Mariano’s Fresh Market, QFC, Ralphs and Fred Meyer.

Albertsons owns and operates more than 2,200 supermarkets through its many brands. They include Safeway, Vons, Jewel-Osco, Shaw’s, Acme, Tom Thumb, Randalls, United Supermarkets, Pavilions, Star Market, Haggen, Carrs, Kings Food Market and Balducci’s.

Kroger and Albertsons also operate supermarkets branded with their own names.

Had the merger gone forward, it would have been the largest of its kind in U.S. history, affecting millions of grocery shoppers.

To ward off regulators’ concerns, prior to canceling the transaction, the chains announced in 2023 a plan to sell hundreds of their supermarkets across the United States to C&S Wholesale Grocers. They updated this plan in 2024, pledging to not close any stores.

Why did Kroger want to acquire Albertsons?

The companies argued that they needed to join forces to compete against even bigger online and big box retailers. In recent years, Walmart and Costco have gained market share, while other chains have held steady or lost ground.

The companies also feared stiff competition from dollar stores, one of the fastest-growing segments of U.S. retail.

The federal government opposed the merger, with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission suing to block it. Had the deal gone through, the new company would have cemented its position, ensuring it has the largest market share for grocery purchases after Walmart.

What happened in court?

In February 2024, the FTC, along with state attorneys general representing consumers in eight states – Arizona, California, Illinois, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Wyoming – filed a federal lawsuit in Oregon to block the merger. So did the District of Columbia’s attorney general.

This wasn’t the only legal challenge the merger faced. The Washington and Colorado attorneys general both filed suit in their own states to block the merger.

After hearings in both cases and months of uncertainty, the judges in both Oregon and Washington issued their rulings.

U.S. District Court Judge Adrienne Nelson, in Portland, Oregon, on Dec. 10, which blocked the merger pending the outcome of the administrative proceedings before the FTC.

A few hours later, Judge Marshall Ferguson in Seattle issued a permanent injunction barring the merger in Washington state only. Both judges determined that the merger risked significantly reducing competition and that the companies didn’t offer enough evidence that the merger would help consumers.

“We’re standing up to mega-monopolies to keep prices down,” Ferguson said. He called the injunction “an important victory for affordability, worker protections and the rule of law.”

Albertsons and Kroger’s plan to offload stores to C&S didn’t impress the judges. Not only did Nelson find the divestiture insufficient in scale, but she ruled it was “structured in a way that will significantly disadvantage C&S as a competitor.”

Albertsons v. Kroger

The morning after the Washington and Oregon decisions were issued, the deal was dead.

Albertsons announced it terminated the merger agreement, citing the court decisions.

Both companies still face significant legal challenges, though. Five minutes after announcing its intent to back out of the deal, Albertsons issued a second press release announcing it had filed a lawsuit against Kroger.

Albertsons said Kroger willfully breached the deal “by repeatedly refusing to divest assets necessary for antitrust approval, ignoring regulators’ feedback, rejecting stronger divestiture buyers and failing to cooperate with Albertsons.” The suit seeks significant damages, including “billions of dollars” for lost shareholder value and legal costs, as well as a $600 million merger breakup fee.

In response, Kroger said that “Albertsons’ claims are baseless and without merit.”

Albertsons’ suit against Kroger is pending in Delaware Court of Chancery, which hears many legal business disputes. The complaint remains temporarily under seal.

This article includes passages that appeared in an article about the proposed merger that was published on Feb. 28, 2024.The Conversation

About the Author:

Christine P. Bartholomew, Professor of Law, University at Buffalo

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Stock Market News
15 Dec

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (25,277 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13,237 contracts), the Russell-Mini (9,417 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (5,882 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (571 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-11,968 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-139 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (94 percent) and the Russell-Mini (81 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (49 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (55.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (66.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (52.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (48.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (78.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (77.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (94.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (85.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (80.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (74.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (58.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (59.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (49.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.3 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (47 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-40 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-22 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-39.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-33.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-21.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-19.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (2.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-2.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (47.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (41.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-9.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-20.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (-21.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (3.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -45,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.445.98.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.233.08.7
– Net Position:-45,17045,739-569
– Gross Longs:68,746162,47230,353
– Gross Shorts:113,916116,73330,922
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.446.975.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-39.541.1-19.6

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -83,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 25,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.471.212.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.074.16.4
– Net Position:-83,333-66,801150,134
– Gross Longs:288,8761,654,888299,379
– Gross Shorts:372,2091,721,689149,245
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.330.798.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.815.314.2

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.351.319.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.069.413.4
– Net Position:11,071-16,3015,230
– Gross Longs:23,61445,99717,256
– Gross Shorts:12,54362,29812,026
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.314.691.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.4-4.912.6

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 35,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.452.114.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.269.29.7
– Net Position:35,573-49,86414,291
– Gross Longs:91,735152,03542,649
– Gross Shorts:56,162201,89928,358
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.30.081.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:47.2-36.16.1

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.274.98.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.679.63.4
– Net Position:-2,157-24,30026,457
– Gross Longs:74,100390,12744,304
– Gross Shorts:76,257414,42717,847
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.59.099.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.61.731.9

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:1.558.119.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.745.914.3
– Net Position:-2,6031,844759
– Gross Longs:2248,7862,919
– Gross Shorts:2,8276,9422,160
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.039.357.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.611.317.3

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.088.12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.085.31.4
– Net Position:-17,96312,5465,417
– Gross Longs:40,742397,68711,784
– Gross Shorts:58,705385,1416,367
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.449.144.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.1-20.111.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
07 Dec

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Nasdaq-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini with a gain of 10,232 contracts on the week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-29,716 contracts), the VIX (-13,822 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-8,962 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,462 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-1,552 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (85 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (77 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (74 percent) and the VIX (66 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (49 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (66.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (48.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (53.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (77.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (79.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (85.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (69.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (74.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (80.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.8 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (42 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The  MSCI EAFE-Mini (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-21 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-33.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (-17.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-16.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (28.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-20.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-19.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (3.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (1.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.544.39.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.135.18.5
– Net Position:-33,20231,5261,676
– Gross Longs:66,912152,28630,871
– Gross Shorts:100,114120,76029,195
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.334.884.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.734.8-15.1

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -108,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,894 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.372.213.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.174.06.5
– Net Position:-108,610-40,012148,622
– Gross Longs:257,6061,646,683295,702
– Gross Shorts:366,2161,686,695147,080
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.534.498.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.610.821.6

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,052 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.452.117.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.066.813.8
– Net Position:10,500-13,6133,113
– Gross Longs:26,19648,06215,863
– Gross Shorts:15,69661,67512,750
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.418.578.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.81.16.2

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.454.813.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.368.79.7
– Net Position:29,691-40,96511,274
– Gross Longs:89,355160,83739,675
– Gross Shorts:59,664201,80228,401
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.27.676.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:41.9-30.51.5

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.975.58.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.278.53.4
– Net Position:-11,574-15,17626,750
– Gross Longs:65,152379,98143,620
– Gross Shorts:76,726395,15716,870
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.114.6100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.811.234.4

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:2.070.227.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.755.719.5
– Net Position:-2,4641,576888
– Gross Longs:2217,6203,008
– Gross Shorts:2,6856,0442,120
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.237.560.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.34.81.0

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.189.22.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.083.41.3
– Net Position:-31,20026,3454,855
– Gross Longs:37,113406,07010,977
– Gross Shorts:68,313379,7256,122
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.363.541.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.8-3.3-1.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
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