Archive for Opinions – Page 70

06 Oct

Week Ahead: SPX500_m primed for heavy event week

By ForexTime 

  • Big week for SPX500_m thanks to host of key risk events
  • Watch out for US CPI, Fed speeches & big bank earnings
  • SPX500_m bearish but RSI flirting around oversold territory
  • Fresh fundamental spark could trigger big move
  • Keep eye on strong support above 200-day SMA

Even as the countdown looms to the highly anticipated US jobs report this afternoon (Friday 6th October), investors are bracing for even more market volatility in the week ahead!

The incoming US inflation data, speeches from various Fed officials, FOMC minutes as well as earnings announcements by US banks could rock the S&P 500 next week.

Monday, October 9

  • CNH: China aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans
  • EUR: Germany industrial production
  • USD: Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson speech
  • World Bank-IMF annual meetings open in Marrakech

Tuesday, October 10  

  • AUD: Australia Westpac consumer confidence
  • JPY: Japan balance of payments
  • NZD: New Zealand home sales
  • USD: Atlantic Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Governor Christopher Waller,  Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
  • IMF issues its latest world economic outlook

Wednesday, October 11

  • EUR: Germany CPI
  • USD: FOMC minutes, PPI, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Thursday, October 12

  • JPY: Japan machinery orders, PPI
  • EUR: ECB September meeting minutes
  • NZD: New Zealand food prices
  • GBP: UK industrial production
  • USD: US September CPI report, initial jobless claims, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Friday, October 13

  • CAD: Canada existing home sales
  • CNH: China CPI, PPI, trade
  • EUR: Eurozone industrial production
  • USD: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment
  • SPX500_m: Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock results

The September US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report published on Thursday, October 12 will most likely influence expectations around whether the Fed hikes rates one more time in 2023.

Markets are forecasting:

  • CPI year-on-year (September 2023 vs. September 2022) to cool 3.6% from 3.7% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI year-on-year to cool 4.1% from 4.3% seen in August.
  • CPI month-on-month (September 2023 vs August 2023) to cool 0.3% from 0.6% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 0.3% from 0.3% seen in August.

Back in August, US headline inflation accelerated thanks to higher oil prices, but core inflation fell to the lowest level since September 2021. Should September’s CPI report show evidence of cooling prices, this is likely to boost bets around the Fed pausing hikes for the rest of 2023.

US CPI report may rock the SPX500_m…

The S&P 500 has a handful of tech stocks that remain sensitive to Fed hike expectations.

Given how tech stocks account for roughly 28% of the index’s value, the incoming CPI report could trigger volatility.

In a nutshell, tech stocks are pressured by higher interest rates because their value is based on earnings forecasted in the future.

  • The SPX500_m is likely to trade lower if the inflation numbers are hot and sticky.
  • Should the CPI report print below market forecasts, the SPX500_m may receive a boost higher.

US earnings season kicks off…

Third quarter earnings season kicks off on Friday 13th October, led by US banking giants JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and BlackRock. Investors will comb through the earnings for fresh insight into the health of US banks which can be used to gauge the health of the US economy.

When considering how financial stocks account for around 12.7% of the S&P 500, the market reaction to these big bank earnings on Friday is likely to impact the index.

  • The SPX500_m could push higher if the bank earnings exceed forecasts.
  • If the earnings disappoint, this could drag the SPX500_m lower

Conflicting technical signals 

The SPX500_m remains in a bearish trend on the daily charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. However, strong support can be found just above the 200-day SMA with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flirting around oversold territory – suggesting a potential pullback down the road. These conflicting signals may keep the SPX500_m trapped within a range until a fresh fundamental catalyst triggers a breakout. In the meantime, support can be found at 4210 and resistance at 4332.

  • A solid breakout above 4332 could open a path towards 4410 where the 100-day SMA resides.
  • Should prices break below 4210, this could encourage a decline towards levels not seen since May at 4130.

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Opinions Stock Market News
05 Oct

Global bond rout: complacency could hit your wealth

By George Prior 

Investors need to pay attention to the dramatic global bond market rout to safeguard their wealth despite the sell-off stablising, warns the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.

The warning from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as the US, European, and Japanese bond rout deepens.

US bonds maturing in 10 years or more have fallen 46% since peaking in March 2020, according to Bloomberg.

European bonds are following in the footsteps of the US rout, with yields on Germany’s 10-year debt rising above 3% for the first time since 2011, earlier this week. Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year yield, rose to a decade high, despite the Bank of Japan being prepared to buy $4.5 billion worth of bonds.

Also surging this week have been Australian, Canadian and British government bond yields.

Nigel Green says: “The sell-off began after the US Federal Reserve insisted that interest rates would be kept higher for longer.

“Investors need to be ‘on it’ when it comes to the global bond market rout as it could have far-reaching consequences, impacting various asset classes and investment portfolios, despite the situation having stabilised somewhat for the time being.”

He continues: “Diversification is a cornerstone of a sound investment strategy. However, bond market turbulence can challenge this diversification by affecting both the bond and equity parts of a portfolio.

“When bond prices fall and yields rise, investors can experience losses in their fixed-income holdings.

“At the same time, the shift in investor preferences towards higher-yielding bonds can influence stock markets, potentially leading to equity market declines.

“As such, the bond market’s trajectory may require investors to adjust their asset allocation to mitigate potential losses.”

Many investors turn to bonds for stability and income generation. However, during a bond market rout, even traditionally safe investments, such as government and corporate bonds, can face significant price declines.

“Investors who rely on these bonds for capital preservation and regular income should closely monitor their bond holdings with their financial advisor and perhaps consider diversifying into other assets, such as dividend-paying stocks or alternative investments,” observes the deVere CEO.

Some alternative investments to consider could include precious metal; real assets, such as real estate and infrastructure investments; commodities like oil, natural gas, or agricultural products, and Structured products, such as structured notes which can be customised to offer capital protection or enhanced returns based on specific market conditions.

“To grow and protect their money, I would urge investors to avoid complacency over the global bond rout as we doubt this is the end to the turbulence,” concludes the deVere Group CEO.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Opinions Stock Market News
04 Oct

Gold Has Fallen but Stocks Are Cheap

Source: Adrian Day  (10/4/23) 

Global Analyst Adrian Day looks at why gold has fallen and suggests it may have further to go. Meanwhile, he takes a look at some gold stocks, which are currently very inexpensive. 

The sharp drop in the gold price last week dragged the stocks down even further to where many are compelling value (as indicated by the length of the “best buys” list below). In last week’s Bulletin, I wrote that the widening gap between bullion and gold stocks could be closed by gold declining. “I would argue that in a global environment which has seen interest rates shoot up rapidly with continuing tightening in the outlook as well as a deteriorating economic environment, gold ‘should’ be lower.”

I hope I didn’t jinx it and provoke the one-week, $78 drop! The market finally seems to have given some credence to Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve.

At the last meeting, though there was no rate hike, Powell reiterated his hawkish stance, while the Fed members (in the so-called “dot-plot”) are still projecting another rate hike this year, and they increased their estimates for rates next year.

This seems to have got the market’s attention, as the Fed Funds Futures are now more weighted to a hike this year. More importantly, perhaps, market rates have moved up, along with a stronger dollar.

Bond Yields Must Go Higher

Market rates are likely to move up further. The Treasury is still playing catch up in bond issuance after the debt ceiling agreement in June, with perhaps as much as half-a-trillion additional bonds to be issued this year. That will withdraw liquidity from the economy, hurting gold. This comes as traditional key buyers, including the Federal Reserve itself, and China, Japan, and Russia are not buying, requiring higher rates to attract new buyers. In addition, almost one-third oof all Treasuries outstanding will mature over the next 12 months, requiring the Treasury to issue new bonds at today’s higher rates.

The report Friday that Saudi Arabia was seeking a stronger military agreement with the U.S. led to suggestions that this could mean more cooperation on the oil price and, potentially, a stalling of the advance to de-dollarization of global trade. Both of these would be gold-negative.

If the Fed blinks even as the inflation numbers are moving back up, that would be very positive for gold.

There are certainly factors that could see gold even lower before the end of the year. Another Fed rate hike would likely hurt gold, despite the Fed Funds Futures. On the other hand, the Fed is unlikely to hike during a government shutdown, while the automobile strike might suggest caution. And, of course, if inflation numbers move down again, that would provide a reason to pause

What we can say, however, is that we are getting very close to the point where conditions will favor gold. The U.S. economy is moving towards a recession, while the recent jump in the oil price will flow through to most goods in the stores, boosting the CPI numbers in the months ahead. That combination — stagflation — is positive for gold.

A slowing economy ahead of the election, even as payments on the Federal debt rise sharply, will also suggest the end of hiking. If the Fed blinks even as the inflation numbers are moving back up, that would be very positive for gold.

Stocks Very Low Amid Weak Sentiment

Meanwhile, investor sentiment is extremely negative; gold ETFs continue to see larger outflows. From a contrarian point of view, that suggests that the eventual rally will be all the more strong. Retail interest is higher, as evidenced by Costco now selling one-ounce gold bars, which the company says typically sell out “within a few hours.”

The gold stocks remain very undervalued. We could look at many indicators of value. For one, the GDXJ fund is four standard deviations below the level implied by a 10-year regression model, a measure of price rather than value to be sure of a very unusual occurrence.

The seniors are at multi-decade low valuations as well. Of course, the stocks will fall further if the gold price does, but we are close, in terms of price and time, to the lows, and today’s prices will look very low a year or two from now.

More Trouble in Panama for Franco

Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE) sees more uncertainty over its largest asset, the stream on First Quantum’s Cobre Panama mine, less than a year after the mine was temporarily shut down amid rancorous renegotiations of its agreement with the government. That agreement was in the news again when the National Assembly suspended debate on its ratification amid demonstrations by a workers union protesting against the proposed agreement.

However, this may be a tempest in a teapot: the union does not represent any mine workers, while the Assembly’s objections to the new agreement do not appear to concern any central financial issues.

A resolution in the near term is likely. Meanwhile, the mine continues to operate.

We do not expect this new dispute to have a meaningful impact on Franco’s share price, which is at a good buying price in any event.

Nestlé Sells Troubled Asset, Buys Another

Nestle SA (NESN:VX; NSRGY:OTC) has sold Palforzia, its troubled peanut-allergy treatment, to a Swiss biopharmaceutical company specializing in the treatment of allergies. The price was not disclosed, though it is widely thought that Nestlé lost a significant amount of the $2.6 billion it paid to acquire the business in 2020 amid hopes of a blockbuster therapy.

Demand from both patients and doctors was disappointing. Earlier this year, Nestlé took a $2.1 billion impairment on the medication. Mitigating the loss, Nestlé will receive milestone payments and ongoing royalties. In other news, Nestlé has acquired the majority stake in Grupo CRM, a premium chocolate company in Brazil, which operates more than 1,000 chocolate boutiques, including under the Kopenhagen name, ubiquitous at the country’s large airports and malls.

As with the Palforzia sale, this transaction was with a private company, and financial terms were not disclosed. Separately, Nestlé ranked first in coffee sustainability in the new Coffee Brew Index, with the report recognizing the company’s comprehensive coffee sustainability strategy, which includes help in modern techniques for coffee growers.

Despite its large portfolio of businesses, Nestlé has shown itself to be flexible while achieving consistent returns. With a solid balance sheet and forward yield of almost 3%, it’s a long-term Buy.

BEST BUYS THIS WEEK include, in addition to above, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE), Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE), Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM:TSX; WPM:NYSE), Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS:TSX; PAAS:NASDAQ), Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FSM:NYSE; FVI:TSX; FVI:BVL; F4S:FSE), Lara Exploration Ltd. (LRA:TSX.V), Orogen Royalties Inc. (OGN:TSX.V), Midland Exploration Inc. (MD:TSX.V), and Nova Royalty Corp. (NOVR:TSX.V).

UPCOMING APPEARANCES November 1st to 4th is the annual New Orleans Investment Conference. Always educational, challenging, and fun, it is a must-event on my annual calendar. Speakers, too many to list, include Peter Boockvar, a walking almanac of all things economic; Robert Prechter, George Gammon, and the alwayscontroversial Prof. Dave Collum.

One recent addition to the line-up is Russian-born, U.K.-based satirist Konstantin Kisin, whose speech on cancel culture at the Oxford Union went viral. I am honored to say that I’ll be interviewing him. Details can be found here.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Franco-Nevada Corp., Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Barrick Gold Corp., Pan American Silver Corp., Fortuna Silver Mines Inc., Lara Exploration Ltd., Orogen Royalties Inc., Midland Exploration Inc., and Nova Royalty Corp.
  2. Adrian Day: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Adrian Day Disclosures

Adrian Day’s Global Analyst is distributed for $990 per year by Investment Consultants International, Ltd., P.O. Box 6644, Annapolis, MD 21401. (410) 224-8885. www.AdrianDayGlobalAnalyst.com. Publisher: Adrian Day. Owner: Investment Consultants International, Ltd. Staff may have positions in securities discussed herein. Adrian Day is also President of Global Strategic Management (GSM), a registered investment advisor, and a separate company from this service. In his capacity as GSM president, Adrian Day may be buying or selling for clients securities recommended herein concurrently, before or after recommendations herein, and may be acting for clients in a manner contrary to recommendations herein. This is not a solicitation for GSM. Views herein are the editor’s opinion and not fact. All information is believed to be correct, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The owner and editor are not responsible for errors and omissions. © 2023. Adrian Day’s Global Analyst. Information and advice herein are intended purely for the subscriber’s own account. Under no circumstances may any part of a Global Analyst e-mail be copied or distributed without prior written permission of the editor. Given the nature of this service, we will pursue any violations aggressively.

Metals Opinions
04 Oct

How To Invest Through the Next Crisis

Source: Michael Ballanger  (10/2/23) 

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his experience surviving three major crashes and one mini crash to tell you how he survived. He also shares stocks he believes are worth looking into and explains why he believes you should invest in copper. 

As I pore through dozens of “Daily Market Commentaries” offered each morning by the major banks and brokerages around North America and Europe, there is one old horse chestnut that will never disappear: “Fear sells.”

The Three Major

One thing that has not yet failed in my septuagenarian memory center is my recollection of the three major and one mini-market crashes through which I survived amidst fear and loathing early in my career and greed and excitement later in my career. The reason for this metamorphosis is the financial scar tissue that was developed in the early years served to guide me in later years, acting as a psychological sedative during times of market unrest.

Back in October 1987, watching a $500,000 portfolio (carrying $250,000 of margin debt) go to a $16,000 equity value, thanks in large to the merciless pen of my firm’s margin clerk, it was a valuable lesson for a young man trying to succeed in the wild world of investing “other people’s money” (know unaffectionately as “OTM”) while managing the far more important (tongue-in-cheek) personal account (affectionately known as “my P.A.”). I recall the perverse levels of glee exhibited by brokerage house managers across the system at the extraordinary commissions being generated by the forced sellouts of under-margined accounts, thinking: “These people are never coming back. . .” and ruing the day that turned out to be true.

In response to the 22.6%, one-day plunge in the Dow Jones, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan introduced the first emergency measure of the modern era by opening up the liquidity spigots, sending long-term bond yields plunging while injecting tens of billions into the financial system to shore up the banks and brokers. One year later, stocks hit new highs, thus setting the template for stock market bailouts for decades (although it took years to sink in for most investors).

By the time we got to 2007, we had survived all kinds of mini-corrections, including fears of massive computer malfunctions at the turn of the New Millennium and the 9/11 tragedy, so by 2008, I was enjoying the “China buys EVERYTHING” commodity boom and was completely oblivious to the mortgage fraud being perpetrated everywhere (setting a template for repeats in Canada, China, Australia, and New Zealand fifteen years later).

The next major one was eleven years later when a number of men then considered “the smartest in the room” decided to set up a highly-leveraged investment fund of systemic size (and potential impact) and named it Long Term Capital Management which was a misnomer as it was run by a gaggle of trigger-fingered ex-bond-traders whose idea of a “long-term trade” was the amount of time it took for the ink to dry on the confirmations slips.

Despite the PHD and MBA shingles hanging ceremoniously from every wall, their high-browed strategy assumed that markets would remain rational forever, and when the Rooskies decided to tell bondholders to pound sand in the summer of 1998, the ensuing liquidity crisis set off a domino effect of cash calls and down went LTCM with a crash that forced the banks (all except Lehman Bros.) to bail them out but not before stocks had suffered a 22% crash over the next sixty days. The career-risk panic by the end of September 1998 was palpable, with notable oxymorons of the day being “wealthy client” and “responsible broker.”

Once again, the Fed/Wall St. bailout team came to the rescue, and stocks recovered all losses by year-end, once again installing a Pavlovian imprint into the risk management psyches of the investing public.

By the time we got to 2007, we had survived all kinds of mini-corrections, including fears of massive computer malfunctions at the turn of the New Millennium and the 9/11 tragedy, so by 2008, I was enjoying the “China buys EVERYTHING” commodity boom and was completely oblivious to the mortgage fraud being perpetrated everywhere (setting a template for repeats in Canada, China, Australia, and New Zealand fifteen years later).

Arriving like a thief in the night, the third crash was in 2008 and was a classic example of a self-inflicted shotgun blast to the sternum of the financial system, the gun armed and aimed by the banking sector aided and abetted by both the rating agencies and the mortgage industry.

“As long as the music kept playing,”  they said,  “they had to keep dancing,”  but what the public failed to grasp was that the bankers knew that if and when the music stopped, Congress and the Fed would provide an unlimited number of high-backed and very plush chairs for the bankers but cold, hard concrete for the masses.

Alas, as if scripted by a Hollywood team, stocks caught a foothold in March 2009 and screamed to all-time highs four years later, propelled by a veritable gusher of liquidity (DEBT) conjured up by the central bankers and their political henchmen.

The House of Fear

The rest of the decade of 2010-2020 was a pleasure ride of the highest order. It was a goldilocks dreamworld of low inflation and low borrowing costs, largely the result of the gutting of the Western labor unions and the expatriation of the American middle class. China and Latin America now had all of the manufacturing businesses that once employed the average American breadwinner, but this wonderful era of “globalization” was really a ploy to enrich and empower the banking sector because as long as managers of assembly plants in Beijing or Hermosillo did not need worry about picket lines, their profit margins were sacrosanct and bottom lines and top lines could be exceeded while stock option plans were making them richer than they had ever imagined.

That all stopped when a wayward, disease-infected bat worked his way out of a laboratory in Wuhan, China, and ended up on a dinner plate in the local “wet market.” Sensing an opportunity to seize votes, politicians the world over donned phony Dollar Store masks and stood arm-in-arm in front of the cameras, ordering common citizens to stay indoors, distance themselves from others, stay home from school, and not visit their ailing parents.

To rub salt in the wounds, they then ordered those citizens to get jabbed with a substance that failed to meet even the laxest of testing standards for new medicines. They fired people for refusing “medical treatment” where the right to refuse such is actually a law. The final straw was when these “science-following” fools shut down the global economy and then papered over the error by dropping trillions of dollars out of helicopters into the laps of all shut-in, masked, vaccinated, and unemployed citizens, failing to understand that everything they would be buying through Amazon would be in short supply because nobody was manufacturing it.

The abject stupidity of it was hard to fathom, but since the politicians were and are always right, they made sure that interest rates stayed “zero-bound,” all the while these trillions of dollars were desperately seeking out goods and services that were about to get a lot more expensive. Only after a 35% crash in March of 2020 did the Fed wake up along with Washington (and Ottawa and London and Paris, etc., etc. etc.) and begin to open up the floodgates of “emergency stimulus.”

This stimulus continued even after stocks had recovered all of their COVID crash losses until late in 2021 when inflation data confirmed that it was not exactly “transitory” as pronounced by Fed Chairman (and ex-stock salesman) Jerome Powell, but in fact was “sticky.”

Remember that since “Fear Sells,”  the specter of the explosion of the debt bomb is what the newsletters use to sell subscriptions. It is also what prompts customers to move assets from the conservative bond house to the “House of Fear,” where gold guns and cabins in the mountains are the topics of the “Daily Market Commentaries.” Somewhere in the middle is the desired destination for the rational investor.

Since stocks topped in January 2022, they have had a begrudging correction that has at its core total ambivalence over serious structural problems in the global supply chain and an unsurmountable amount of sovereign debt that today threatens to choke the life out of the bull market in everything including housing, stocks, and congressional bribery.

The only reason that stocks are sitting today within an earshot of all-time highs is that the gargantuan flow of money into stocks each and every month is being executed by those who only know the “bailout” kind of market environment.

In 1987, there was no such precedent for a stock market rescue because that would be a violation of the All-American philosophy of “free market capitalism” spouted out by the Larry Kudlow’s and Jim Cramer’s of the world until, of course, their portfolios have seen a 40% drawdown and a margin call threatened a total wipeout.

“They know nothing!” shouted Cramer back in 2008, thinking that we all thought he meant the central bankers. What he really meant was that what they did not know was how much money he had lost buying Bear Sterns at $50 days before it got a rescue bid at $10 by the Almighty and Powerful Jamie Dimon and J.P. Morgan. The world of “socialized losses” and “privatized profits” is alive and well in 2023, but I would hazard a guess that the one thing standing in its way is that the debt bomb has a soon-to-be lit fuse that is now out of reach of the water hoses of the central banks and politicians. They doused that fuse during every crash since 1987 and hid it behind a mountain of liquidity, but as the mountain begins to melt away under the heat of economic stagflation, the fuse is once again both dry and exposed with the combination of de-globalization and elevated inflation and interest rates representing a “clear-and-present blowtorch” to the unsuspecting fuse.

Debt liquidation is not an inflationary happenstance; it is the ultimate deflation. Imagine prices for goods and services around the world going “NO BID” in a total absence of liquidity (credit), which is the lifeblood of all commerce here in 2023. It was not that way fifty years ago. Economies prospered or went bus bust upon adherence to (or lack thereof) sound money principles and the Christian Work Ethic (“Western” Work Ethic” being more politically correct). It is not my wish that the debt bomb explodes, but it is certainly my greatest living fear, both as an investor and as a citizen. A debt explosion vaporizes the purchasing power of all domestic currencies that rely upon credit, with the only survivors being those who have stores of value in their operational incomes, like farming, medicine, and most of the basic trades. One can barter to treat an ailment or mend fencing or repair tractors, but the last thing “of value” is financial services and especially “advice.”

Remember that since “Fear Sells,”  the specter of the explosion of the debt bomb is what the newsletters use to sell subscriptions. It is also what prompts customers to move assets from the conservative bond house to the “House of Fear,” where gold guns and cabins in the mountains are the topics of the “Daily Market Commentaries.”

Somewhere in the middle is the desired destination for the rational investor.

Stocks

I have been a bear on stocks since the top in early August when the S&P 500 registered a bearish MACD crossover and started the first leg down in this corrective move — and that is just what it is — a corrective move. It is not the start of a market crash a secular bear market, or even a full-blown correction, although the NASDAQ is currently in that category.

I am now a cautious-about-to-turn-aggressive bull looking out to mid-October for a major rally that could quite possibly take stocks to all-time highs above SPX 4,818 by New Year’s. In this morning’s pre-opening email alert, I typed: “ This morning, I am anticipating a mid-session pullback as the last of the institutional window dressing is completed. Then, look for a rally to $445.00 on the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:NYSE) to commence.”

The reason for this is that sudden crashes in stock prices do not appear when “others are fearful,” and right now, the big traders are just that — fearful.

Compared to July when artificial intelligence ruled the roost and traders were making bets on a “Fed Pivot by Labour Day,” they have now dismissed AI in favor of “higher for longer” and the abject certainty that “something will break” in October, triggering a crash.

Stocks are on the defensive as margin calls on everything but your pet chihuahua are being met with month-end selling but my money, FWIW, is on a face-ripping rally to commence in October leaving the bears cowering in fetal positions in their dens.

All of the major indicators are either in or are quickly approaching oversold status and while the monthly numbers look a tad scary, the GLD:NYSE could easily rally back to $445.00 at which point I will re-assess.

Conditions favoring a year-end rally are rounding into shape from perspectives of both technical and sentimental set-ups.

Gold and Silver

I have been flat gold and silver trading positions since early September for no other reason than they “just weren’t acting right,” and while that could be true for the past three years since the Fed and Treasury opened up the monetary fire hoses, during the summer pullback in the U.S, dollar (USD) neither metal could mount any kind of momentum.

Once the USD bottomed in late August, it began a meteoric ascent driven by rising U.S. bond yields that is still ongoing despite rising energy prices and slowing (ex-food and energy) CPI numbers.

With the USD now firmly in overbought territory (RSI 70.95) and the GLD:NYSE in oversold territory (RSI 25), conditions are ripe for a turn, and with the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index at 10.71, sentiment for the gold and silver stocks is putrid.

Norseman Silver Ltd. (NOC:TSX.V; NOCSF:OTCQB)CQB)

In fact, colleagues of mine have been asking me what I think of the current state of the Canadian junior resource market, and my only response is “What market?” because outside of selected uranium and lithium stocks (and lithium came under huge pressure in September), there is little demand and relative to the junior gold and silver markets, there is patently NO demand, whatsoever.

If one is a contrarian, one has to be backing up the truck as one accumulates some very promising juniors like Norseman Silver Ltd. (NOC:TSX.V; NOCSF:OTCQB) whose seasoned and very competent management team is scouring the planet for an advanced project within the “Electrification Trilogy” of uranium, copper, and lithium.

I should add (very quietly) that NOC/NOCSF closed at the ridiculous price of CA$0.035 today, which is less than the cost of buying a Vancouver shell.

I confess to having exhibited strong masochistic tendencies since 2020 in the full and unwavering belief that a junior resource bull “to end all bulls” is lurking just around the corner. While I have enjoyed marginal success in the uranium and lithium space, the copper space has been largely ignored and unloved throughout the entire post-pandemic monetary print-fest. Therein lies my next serious hunt, as there can be no successful transition to electric vehicles unless there is a tenfold increase in the transmission grid, and critical to expanding that grid is copper.

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN:TSX; IVPAF:OTCQX)

It was weak in September, falling over 7.3% before a modest bounce into month-end. Since the big money has found electrical storage in lithium and since they have more recently gone after clean energy in uranium, they have yet to anoint energy transmission and copper as the last member of that very special trilogy. As a warning, I will continue to beat the copper drum until Bob Friedland forces me to buy shares in his behemoth Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., the crown jewel of the Friedland Empire.

As a casual observer of the deal since 2005, I have watched the genius that is Robert Friedland over the years (after meeting him in 1993) amass a large fortune through mining, first leaving North America for Singapore, then managing Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN:TSX; IVPAF:OTCQX) through intricate deals in Mongolia and Africa with the result being the largest copper producer in the world at Kamoa-Kakula which is situated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in partnership with the government and Chinmet, the Chinese National Mining Company.

Arguably the finest salesman on the planet, Friedland deserves every penny of accolade bestowed to him by the usually agnostic press, which seem to view him as the fast-and-furious penny stock promoter of the 1980s and 1990s (which he was), but every time I listen to him addressing the Saudi princes or the Chinese mandarins in conferences throughout the Middle East and Asia, I am reminded of the time in 2002 he addressed a bunch of salesmen with the former Yorkton Securities in Toronto shortly after the dotcom market had blown up.

He took off his Armani jacket and rolled up his $300 shirt sleeves, and scolded the demoralized and destitute brokers up one side and down the other with visceral derision for failing to understand that “Technology is effin’ DEAD, and you mutts will have no clients left if you do not get them OUT and into commodities!” His vitriol was beyond “frightening.”

Within six months, Friedland was bang on, and by 2003, the metals markets were screaming higher, and it lasted until 2011 as China was the top dog in the race, exactly as he had predicted during that meeting.

So, when I start spouting off and tripping the light fantastic over “old guys” that I totally admire, I try to look beyond their self-laudatory idiosyncrasies and focus on their accomplishments, many of which can be attributed to chaps like Bob Friedland.

The reasons that he likes copper are anchored in the reasons he has been successful. The reasons he has been successful are anchored in his understanding of the mining industry. The reasons he understands the mining industry are anchored in the failures that built up the scar tissue early in his career. With that scar tissue, he can withstand the slings and arrows that appear in the mirror every morning of his life in an industry filled with body bags. A remarkable talent at best. . .

Copper is a buy; Ivanhoe Mines is a buy. Bob Friedland is a buy. End of story.

 

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Norseman Silver Ltd. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Norseman Silver Ltd.
  3. Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  4. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
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Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
04 Oct

Explainer: What happened with USDJPY?

By ForexTime 

  • Strong US JOLTS data pushes USDJPY beyond 150.00
  • Currency pair later experiences aggressive selloff
  • Weak yen supporting speculation of government intervention
  • However, market still guessing what triggered spike in yen
  • USDJPY remains bullish with 150 key level of interest

Investors were in a frenzy on Tuesday after the USDJPY collapsed almost 300 pips in a matter of minutes.

This bombshell development ignited expectations that Japan’s government may have intervened to support the currency. However, the radio silence from Japanese officials left market watchers scratching their heads, guessing whether this was the case or not.

With the USDJPY clawing back most of its losses and cautiously moving back in the direction of 150.00, most are looking for answers and questioning what to expect next.

Here, we’ll explain what happened with the USDJPY, why it’s a big deal, and how it could impact your trading.

What exactly happened?

On Tuesday, the USDJPY pushed above 150.00 after US job openings (JOLTS) unexpectedly increased in August, raising questions around more rate hikes from the Fed. After peaking at 150.16 for the first time since October 2022, prices collapsed nearly 2% to 147.33!

The context

Last week, we discussed how the USDJPY was a ticking timebomb because it was trading at levels weaker than last year when Japan intervened. There was already chatter around 150 acting as a key level that could trigger government action.

Why did it happen?

The yen has depreciated roughly 12% against the dollar year-to-date. This puts pressure on Japan’s economy by making imports for many essentials more expensive, prolonging inflation which is above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target.

After USDJPY pushed beyond the 150 threshold, the aggressive selloff led to most speculating that Japan’s government intervened by purchasing large amounts of yen and selling dollars. This argument was supported by the fact that Yen was the sole G10 gainer vs USD yesterday.

Other possible triggers?

Markets are still guessing what exactly triggered the spike in the yen on Tuesday.

Other than possible government intervention, there is talk about a rate check by the BoJ or simply jittery markets in response to the USDJPY touching 150.00.

What is a rate check?

Rate checks are usually seen as a strong warning of potential currency intervention. This is when central bank officials call dealers and ask for buying and selling rates for the yen. The BoJ is said to have done this 8 days before intervening back in September 2022.

What could happen next?

Well, the good news is that investors will know whether Japan intervened and, if so, how much it spent at the end of this month when the Ministry of Finance releases monthly intervention data.

In the meantime, yen volatility is likely to remain a major theme – especially if prices push back towards the psychological 150.00 point.

Will the USDJPY keep pushing higher?

Focusing on the fundamental outlook, the threat of intervention around the 150.0 level could keep USDJPY bulls meek. Especially after the aggressive selloff witnessed in the previous session.

However, expectations around US interest rates staying higher for longer while the BoJ maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy could keep the USDJPY buoyed. This standoff between conflicting forces could place the currency pair on a rollercoaster ride.

Technical outlook

The USDJPY remains firmly bullish on the daily charts despite the aggressive selloff on Tuesday. Bulls remain in a position of power above the 147.50 level. A strong daily close above 150.00 could open a path towards 151.94. Should prices slip below 147.50, a decline towards 146.70 and 144.90 could be on the cards.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions
03 Oct

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried trial is big test for crypto

By George Prior 

The highly anticipated trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX, kicks off today.

This pivotal event represents a golden opportunity to bolster trust, boost adoption, and purge the sector of unscrupulous actors.

This is the analysis of high-profile cryptocurrency advocate Nigel Green, the CEO and founder of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, ahead of the trial in Manhattan federal court. It is expected to last six weeks.

Sam Bankman-Fried, commonly known as SBF, stands accused of defrauding numerous prominent investors worldwide, in addition to millions of customers who placed their trust in his FTX cryptocurrency exchange.

Allegations of pilfering billions of dollars entrusted to his care have further compounded the gravity of the situation.

The aftermath of FTX’s staggering $40 billion bankruptcy in November 2022 has been characterised by US prosecutors as “one of the most significant financial frauds in the annals of American history.”

Nigel Green says: “The importance of this case cannot be underestimated. Not only for SBF, who faces 110 years of prison time, and the victims.

“But also for digital currencies themselves – which are widely regard as the future of money.”

One issue that makes Sam Bankman-Fried’s trial of utmost importance to the cryptocurrency ecosystem is its potential to pave the way for regulatory harmony.

“In the face of the burgeoning prominence of cryptocurrencies in the international financial system, governments and regulatory bodies worldwide find themselves grappling with the imperative need for consistent, all-encompassing regulations,” notes the deVere CEO.

“This trial should serve as a catalyst propelling regulators toward the formulation of a unified framework, harmonising cryptocurrency regulations with the established norms governing traditional financial systems.

“Critics have long decried the lack of oversight and susceptibility to manipulation within cryptocurrency markets.

“By subjecting Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX to the same regulations that traditional financial institutions abide by, this trial sends a resounding message on commitment to equitable and transparent practices.”

He continues: “The crypto market, like any other sector, is not immune to the presence of bad actors.
“The trial presents a unique opportunity to pinpoint and penalise individuals or entities which might have engaged in illicit pursuits. By holding alleged wrongdoers accountable, it underscores a dedication to expelling unscrupulous actors from this burgeoning sector, ultimately creating a safer environment for all participants, including retail and institutional investors.”

Investor confidence constitutes the linchpin for the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies. Nigel Green says: “A meticulously conducted trial resulting in appropriate repercussions will inevitably boost trust among investors in the asset class.

“This trust would further attract investors, especially institutional investors, who bring huge capital, expertise and influence, thereby contributing to crypto’s broader acceptance.”

He concludes: “This is the biggest legal battle in crypto history.

“But it also constitutes a formidable test, and its potential positive outcomes for the crypto market should not be wasted.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Cryptocurrencies Opinions
30 Sep

Speculators boost US Dollar Index bullish bets for 4th straight week to 38-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 26th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (15,331 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (10,131 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (6,091 contracts), the Brazilian Real (2,705 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,124 contracts) and Bitcoin (197 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-18,014 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,893 contracts), the EuroFX (-3,582 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,180 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-3,017 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bullish Bets rise for 4th straight week to 38-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the rise of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index.

The large speculative US Dollar Index positions rose for a fourth straight week this week with the speculator position gaining by a total of +13,935 contracts over this last four-week span.

This renewed bullishness has brought the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at a total of +16,758 contracts) to a new 38-week high, dating back to January 3rd of this year when the speculator’s net position was at a total of +17,761 contracts.

The average weekly speculator position over 2023 has been a modest +11,409 contracts thus far. This follows a strong 2022 where the weekly average speculator position was +33,606 contracts.

The US Dollar Index price also soared over the course of 2022 and hit multi-decade highs with a top at 114.75 price level before retreating into the end of 2022. The Dollar Index has had an topsy-turvy 2023 with an early peak over 105 but then a lower valley that saw a decline to under the 100.00 price level in July. Since then, the Dollar Index has been on a strong run and is currently on a streak of gains for eleven consecutive weeks and closed this week back above the 105.00 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-26-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index42,3734116,75853-18,636461,87829
EUR699,2713798,39962-124,4074326,00820
GBP227,8435415,66967-8,68741-6,98244
JPY285,974100-109,5125120,22794-10,71532
CHF53,90084-9,1153220,91477-11,79919
CAD175,84845-32,6962429,819762,87729
AUD211,88267-86,8159102,25094-15,43515
NZD50,75758-15,1811618,42187-3,24011
MXN216,9064360,63376-64,635234,00237
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL55,5884715,55856-18,138422,58058
Bitcoin14,844681,79493-2,033023918

 

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bitcoin (93 percent) and the Mexican Peso (76 percent) led the currency markets this week. The British Pound (67 percent), EuroFX (62 percent) and the Brazilian Real (56 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (5 percent), the Australian Dollar (9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) were at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (52.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (51.0 percent)
EuroFX (62.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (63.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (66.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (79.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (5.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (31.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (24.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (15.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (76.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (78.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (55.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.1 percent)
Bitcoin (93.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (90.4 percent)

 

Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (38 percent) and the US Dollar Index (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies and were the only currencies in positive trends.

The New Zealand Dollar (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-31 percent), EuroFX (-26 percent) and the British Pound (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (19.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (21.7 percent)
EuroFX (-26.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-20.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-24.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-9.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-17.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-10.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (-14.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-6.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-19.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-44.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-30.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-49.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-33.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-54.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-13.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-19.3 percent)
Bitcoin (37.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.822.511.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.266.57.1
– Net Position:16,758-18,6361,878
– Gross Longs:26,6069,5454,877
– Gross Shorts:9,84828,1812,999
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.3 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.946.228.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.6-20.010.2

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 98,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.255.311.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.273.18.0
– Net Position:98,399-124,40726,008
– Gross Longs:211,516387,03082,167
– Gross Shorts:113,117511,43756,159
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.242.620.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.230.3-31.0

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 15,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -18,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.248.011.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.351.814.6
– Net Position:15,669-8,687-6,982
– Gross Longs:84,750109,26426,381
– Gross Shorts:69,081117,95133,363
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.640.844.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.528.8-31.7

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -109,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -101,619 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.169.912.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.427.916.0
– Net Position:-109,512120,227-10,715
– Gross Longs:46,169200,01535,139
– Gross Shorts:155,68179,78845,854
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.094.331.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.014.5-2.4

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,935 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.059.317.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.920.539.6
– Net Position:-9,11520,914-11,799
– Gross Longs:12,37731,9689,542
– Gross Shorts:21,49211,05421,341
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.9 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.677.418.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.030.3-41.8

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -32,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.768.719.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.351.717.6
– Net Position:-32,69629,8192,877
– Gross Longs:17,006120,75833,799
– Gross Shorts:49,70290,93930,922
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.176.429.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.810.911.6

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -86,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.071.39.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.023.017.0
– Net Position:-86,815102,250-15,435
– Gross Longs:36,104151,04120,512
– Gross Shorts:122,91948,79135,947
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.394.114.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.627.9-8.7

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -15,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,091 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.972.64.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.936.311.0
– Net Position:-15,18118,421-3,240
– Gross Longs:10,63236,8672,340
– Gross Shorts:25,81318,4465,580
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.0 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.986.611.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.230.6-8.4

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 60,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.853.33.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.883.11.2
– Net Position:60,633-64,6354,002
– Gross Longs:92,732115,6166,587
– Gross Shorts:32,099180,2512,585
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.122.836.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.112.25.1

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 15,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.737.37.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.770.03.0
– Net Position:15,558-18,1382,580
– Gross Longs:29,29820,7464,229
– Gross Shorts:13,74038,8841,649
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.5 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.642.358.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.18.77.8

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:73.61.08.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.514.76.5
– Net Position:1,794-2,033239
– Gross Longs:10,9301421,200
– Gross Shorts:9,1362,175961
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.413.918.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.7-55.7-10.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

See our Weekly Trend Model Readings and Actions for each COT Futures Market and Category. All information contained in this data are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
30 Sep

Speculator Extremes: Heating Oil, Bitcoin, Corn & Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 26th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Heating Oil


The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is currently at a 98.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 18.4 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 42,127 net contracts this week with a change of -774 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Bitcoin


The Bitcoin speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is now at a 93.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 37.7 this week. The speculator position registered 1,794 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 197 contracts in speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures


The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level resides at a 90.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 1.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 78,538 net contracts this week with a change of -9,724 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 89.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 18.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 317,146 net contracts this week with a change of -182,231 contracts in the speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index


The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 86.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.7 this week.

The speculator position was -5,137 net contracts this week with a change of 1,280 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn


The Corn speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -118,540 net contracts this week with a change of -17,307 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note


The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 4.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.3 this week. The speculator position was -198,126 net contracts this week with a change of -61,389 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond


The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 4.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,210,300 net contracts this week with a change of 31,163 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium


The Palladium speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Palladium speculator level is at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.0 this week. The speculator position was -10,302 net contracts this week with a change of -72 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen


Finally, the Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 5.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.0 this week. The speculator position was -109,512 net contracts this week with a change of -7,893 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
29 Sep

Week Ahead: Gold set for more explosive volatility

By ForexTime 

If you thought the last few days were explosive for gold prices, then wait until you see what factors could spark even more volatility next week!

The precious metal experienced a brutal selloff this week, shedding roughly 2.7% (at the time of writing) as the prospects of higher-for-longer interest rates boosted the dollar and Treasury yields.

Before we unpack what factors may further influence gold prices, here is a list of key economic reports and events to watch out for in the first week of Q4:

Sunday, October 1

Monday, October 2

  • AUD: Australia Melbourne Institute inflation
  • JPY: BoJ September meeting minutes
  • EUR: Eurozone/Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
  • USD: US ISM Manufacturing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams speech

Tuesday, October 3

  • AUD: RBA rate decision
  • Bitcoin: Former FTX CEO set to go on trial
  • USD: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Wednesday, October 4

  • NZD: RBNZ rate decision
  • EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, retail sales, PPI
  • USD: US factory orders, ADP employment, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speech

Thursday, October 5

  • AUD: Australia trade
  • USD: US trade, initial jobless claims, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speech

Friday, October 6

  • CAD: Canada unemployment
  • EUR: Germany factory orders
  • USD: US September nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Now, here are 4 reasons why we’re keeping a close eye on gold:

  1. Possible US Government shutdown

The US government will experience a partial shutdown from Sunday 1st October if US Congress fails to meet the September 30th midnight deadline to pass funding bills.

Such a negative development could be incredibly disruptive for the US economy. Many public employees will not receive their payslips while private companies who get paid by government contracts may see funds halted until the government re-opens.

But it does not end here. Key economic data such as the US NFP and inflation among other releases may be delayed at a critical time when investors are constantly seeking key insight on the health of the US economy and future monetary policy.

  • Should an extended US government shutdown fuel fears of a US recession and cool bets around the Fed raising rates one more time in 2023, gold could shine.

  1. Powell & Fed speakers in focus

A week jam-packed with speeches from numerous Fed officials, including Jerome Powell could place gold on a rollercoaster ride.

Most Fed speakers have struck a hawkish note recently, standing firm on their mission to tame inflation by pointing in the direction of more tightening. With the latest US CPI figures accelerating for a second month to 3.7% in August, policymakers may be keen to keep the beast under control. Traders are currently pricing in a 38% probability of a 25-basis point hike by the end of 2023, according to Fed fund futures. This figure may be influenced by the messaging of Fed speakers among over major factors.

  • Another round of hawkish comments from Fed officials may drag gold prices lower as Fed hike bets rise.
  • Gold bulls could fight back if Fed officials strike a cautious note with the impending government shutdown supporting upside gains.

  1. US September nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

It is worth keeping in mind that the US September nonfarm payrolls report could be delayed if the US government experiences a partial shutdown from the 1st of October.

Markets expect the US economy to have created 170,000 jobs in September following August’s increase of 187,000. The unemployment rate is seen cooling to 3.7% from the 3.8% in the previous month.

  • A strong-than-expected US jobs report may support the “higher for longer” expectations around US interest rates – dragging gold prices lower.
  • However, further evidence of a cooling US jobs market may support the argument that the Fed is finished with hiking rates this year – providing support to gold.

  1. Bearish technical forces

Gold remains under intense pressure on the daily charts with prices well below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Although bears are in a position of power thanks to fundamental forces, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling heavily oversold conditions. A technical pullback could be on the horizon before prices extend the heavy decline toward the next key level of interest at $1810.

  • A technical pullback towards the $1885 resistance level may encourage a decline back towards $1857.50, $1830, and $1810, respectively.
  • Should prices break above $1885, this could encourage a move back towards $1900.

At the time of writing, Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 74% chance that Gold will trade within the $1843.46 – $1905.39 range over the next one-week period.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions
27 Sep

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Indices

By ForexTime 

Some semblance of stability returned to global equity markets on Wednesday as rate hike fears cooled after a sharp selloff in the previous session.

European stocks edged higher in tight ranges while US futures are pointing to a mixed open amid the cautious market mood. In the currency arena, the dollar continues to dominate with the USD Index trading at levels not seen since November 2022. Looking at commodities, oil prices surged this morning while gold extended losses thanks to rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.

Our attention today falls on major indices which seem to be under the mercy of rate hike fears.

SPX500_m could test 200-day SMA

The bearish case for the SPX500_m was reinforced after prices secured a solid daily close below the 4332 levels.

There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD trades below zero. Bears are clearly in a position of power with a breakdown below 4270, opening a path towards the 200-day SMA at 4210. For bulls to jump back into the game, a move back 4332 needs to be achieved.

NQ100_m breaks key daily support

The recent breakdown below the 14670 support level may signal further downside for the NQ100_m with 14250 acting as a key level of interest.

Technical forces favour bears, as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while prices are trading below the 50 and 100-day SMA. Should prices push back above 14670, this could trigger a rebound towards the 100-day SMA before the downside resumes.

STOX50_m wobbles above 4100

It is safe to say that STOX50_m bears remain in some position of power below the 4200 resistance level.

Prices are approaching another support at 4100, a level not seen since March 2022. A solid breakdown below this level could trigger a selloff towards 4060. Should 4100 prove to be reliable support, prices may push back towards 4200.

UK100_m trapped in wide range

It remains a choppy affair for the UK100_m which is currently trapped within a very wide range on the daily charts.

Resistance can be found at 7710 and support at 7250. Despite the choppiness, prices could be gearing up to decline given the recent break below the 200-day SMA. A strong daily close under 7605 may spark a selloff towards 7530 – where the 50-day SMA resides. If bulls can fight back, a bounce towards 7710 could be on the cards.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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