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Australian Dollar Speculator Bets rebound after dropping to over 1-Year Low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (17,907 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (4,253 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,015 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,090 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (1,084 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,226 contracts), the EuroFX (-3,447 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-3,961 contracts), the British Pound (-1,787 contracts), Bitcoin (-530 contracts) and with the New Zealand Dollar (-369 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Round Up: Australian Dollar Bets rebound after dropping to over 1-Year Low

Highlighting this week’s currency speculative data with the Australian Dollar, which saw a strong gain this week by over 17,000 contracts. This was the first increase in the last five weeks for the Australian Dollar positions and brings the overall speculative sentiment level to -82,683 contracts. The Aussie positioning last week dropped to over -100,000 contracts which was the lowest level of the past 71 weeks, dating back to April 16th of 2024. Overall, the Australian Dollar speculative position continues to remain in an extreme weak speculator position and the Aussie speculative bets have now been in a negative position for 38 consecutive weeks, dating back to December of 2024.

The US Dollar Index speculator position rose this week by over 1,000 contracts, and has now edged higher for three out of the last four weeks. Despite the little bump up in sentiment, the US Dollar Index contracts remain in bearish territory with a standing of over -5,000 net contracts. The US Dollar Index has now been in a bearish position for 12 consecutive weeks.

The Euro currency contracts fell this week by almost -3,500 contracts, but the Euro position continues to be in a strongly bullish level. This week’s Euro speculator standing is at +119,592 contracts, and this week is the 12th consecutive week that the speculative position has been over +100,000 contracts. Overall, the Euro has been in a bullish position for 26 consecutive weeks.

The Japanese Yen contracts fell by over -11,000 net positions this week and the positive speculator position has been slowly but steadily eroding week to week. Since ascending to a new all-time record high bullish position in April at a total of +179,212 net contracts, the bullish position has now shed -105,954 contracts over the past 18 weeks to bring the current position this week to +73,258 contracts. Overall, the Japanese Yen position has now been continuously bullish since February 4th for 31 consecutive weekly bullish positions.

The Canadian Dollar continued to see bearish sentiment and the speculator position declined this week by almost -4,000 contracts. The Canadian Dollar spec position has now fallen in 9 out of the last 10 weeks for a 10-week total of – 55,809 contracts. The overall net position has now dropped to its most bearish level since April (a span of 21 straight weeks) with the Canadian Dollar net position at -108,976 contracts.

Mexican peso positions this week rose for a third consecutive week and for the sixth time out of the last seven weeks. Over the last 7-week period, Peso positions have now advanced by approximately 23,000 contracts. This recent bullish sentiment has brought the Peso positions to the highest level in the past 64 weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2024. The current bullish net position for the Peso is at +73,013 contracts.

Bitcoin Leads Price Performance over last 5 days

Leading the currency market returns this week was Bitcoin, which saw a gain of 3.22%. Over the last 30 days, Bitcoin has been down by -4.35%, but over the last 90 days, Bitcoin has been up by 15%.

Next up, the Brazilian Real was higher by 0.52%. The Real is up by over 5% in the last 90 days. The Swiss Franc comes in next with a 0.23% gain on the week. The Swiss Franc is higher by 3.50 percent over the last 90 days. Similarly, the Euro was up by 0.17% this week and is up by 3.62% over the last 90 days.

The Australian Dollar was higher by a minuscule 0.12% this week and has seen a 1.63% gain over the last 90 days. The U.S. Dollar Index was virtually unchanged (+0.04%) on the week.

The British Pound Sterling was lower by -0.09% on the week. The New Zealand Dollar was down by -0.17% on the week. The Mexican Peso fell by -0.26% this week and is higher by 4.73% over the last 90 days. The Japanese Yen fell by -0.34% on the week, while the Canadian Dollar saw the biggest decline with a -0.85% shortfall in trading this week.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by EuroFX, Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (74 percent), the Brazilian Real (71 percent) and the Japanese Yen (71 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (5 percent) and the British Pound (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (18 percent) and the Bitcoin (34 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.2 percent)
EuroFX (74.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (70.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (73.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (41.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (17.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (57.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (57.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (68.0 percent)
Bitcoin (33.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (44.8 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores to show where speculator bets are trending towards) showed that Bitcoin (20 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (6 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-16 percent), Japanese Yen (-9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-3.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.7 percent)
EuroFX (-2.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-2.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-16.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-28.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-5.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-18.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-14.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-18.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-3.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-11.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (9.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (5.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (3.8 percent)
Bitcoin (20.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (44.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.3	38.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.3	20.1	11.3
– Net Position:	-5,021	5,790	-769
– Gross Longs:	13,645	12,109	2,799
– Gross Shorts:	18,666	6,319	3,568
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.7	97.9	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	4.0	-3.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 119,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	53.9	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	74.1	5.2
– Net Position:	119,592	-171,269	51,677
– Gross Longs:	255,660	455,696	95,363
– Gross Shorts:	136,068	626,965	43,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	22.9	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	2.2	-1.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -33,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,353 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	51.9	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.2	37.8	13.3
– Net Position:	-33,140	31,804	1,336
– Gross Longs:	76,062	117,507	31,465
– Gross Shorts:	109,202	85,703	30,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.6	77.0	65.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	15.5	-8.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.2	36.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	55.3	9.1
– Net Position:	73,258	-76,256	2,998
– Gross Longs:	174,774	152,763	40,872
– Gross Shorts:	101,516	229,019	37,874
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	31.7	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	10.4	-18.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	72.9	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	32.7	24.7
– Net Position:	-25,888	32,459	-6,571
– Gross Longs:	8,401	58,949	13,448
– Gross Shorts:	34,289	26,490	20,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	52.4	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	9.8	-26.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -108,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	76.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.7	25.7	12.8
– Net Position:	-108,976	115,358	-6,382
– Gross Longs:	16,584	173,237	22,486
– Gross Shorts:	125,560	57,879	28,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	61.1	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	19.3	-14.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -82,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 17,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	67.5	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.7	24.8	11.2
– Net Position:	-82,683	79,114	3,569
– Gross Longs:	29,677	124,987	24,268
– Gross Shorts:	112,360	45,873	20,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	77.1	58.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	1.1	-0.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	53.8	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.5	39.0	9.7
– Net Position:	-6,474	8,096	-1,622
– Gross Longs:	17,462	29,585	3,726
– Gross Shorts:	23,936	21,489	5,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	43.2	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	5.4	-19.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	36.9	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	79.3	1.9
– Net Position:	73,013	-76,018	3,005
– Gross Longs:	101,520	66,278	6,414
– Gross Shorts:	28,507	142,296	3,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.0	35.1	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-8.1	-7.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,253 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,916 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	45.3	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	70.8	3.4
– Net Position:	33,169	-33,825	656
– Gross Longs:	67,244	60,088	5,168
– Gross Shorts:	34,075	93,913	4,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	29.4	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-3.6	-16.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.1	5.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.5	2.6	3.5
– Net Position:	-902	649	253
– Gross Longs:	22,452	1,343	1,189
– Gross Shorts:	23,354	694	936
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	71.1	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-13.3	-18.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

07 Sep

Speculator Extremes: Sugar, VIX, 5-Yr Bond & WTI Crude lead Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 2nd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level currently at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 6 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 12,692 net contracts this week with a drop of -2,006 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week as the Lean Hogs speculator level is now at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 6 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 83,340 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 7,272 contracts in speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level resides at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a small gain by 1 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 110,235 net contracts this week with an advance by 3,958 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at an 85 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -6 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 55,923 net contracts this week with a positive change of 9,457 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings with the Heating Oil speculator level sitting at an 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 12 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 30,246 net contracts this week with a rise of 6,479 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level resides at a 0 percent score or at the bottom of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -85,805 net contracts this week with a change of -11,067 contracts in the speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in also tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was big drop by -48 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -106,952 net contracts this week with a decline of -13,814 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the 5-Year speculator level is also at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -9 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -2,681,987 net contracts this week with a reduction by -218,016 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fourth market tied as this week’s most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 102,428 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,044 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Next, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall of -4 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -5,021 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,084 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

03 Sep

AI is transforming weather forecasting − and that could be a game changer for farmers around the world

By Paul Winters, University of Notre Dame and Amir Jina, University of Chicago

For farmers, every planting decision carries risks, and many of those risks are increasing with climate change. One of the most consequential is weather, which can damage crop yields and livelihoods. A delayed monsoon, for example, can force a rice farmer in South Asia to replant or switch crops altogether, losing both time and income.

Access to reliable, timely weather forecasts can help farmers prepare for the weeks ahead, find the best time to plant or determine how much fertilizer will be needed, resulting in better crop yields and lower costs.

Yet, in many low- and middle-income countries, accurate weather forecasts remain out of reach, limited by the high technology costs and infrastructure demands of traditional forecasting models.

A new wave of AI-powered weather forecasting models has the potential to change that.

By using artificial intelligence, these models can deliver accurate, localized predictions at a fraction of the computational cost of conventional physics-based models. This makes it possible for national meteorological agencies in developing countries to provide farmers with the timely, localized information about changing rainfall patterns that the farmers need.

The challenge is getting this technology where it’s needed.

Why AI forecasting matters now

The physics-based weather prediction models used by major meteorological centers around the world are powerful but costly. They simulate atmospheric physics to forecast weather conditions ahead, but they require expensive computing infrastructure. The cost puts them out of reach for most developing countries.

Moreover, these models have mainly been developed by and optimized for northern countries. They tend to focus on temperate, high-income regions and pay less attention to the tropics, where many low- and middle-income countries are located.

A major shift in weather models began in 2022 as industry and university researchers developed deep learning models that could generate accurate short- and medium-range forecasts for locations around the globe up to two weeks ahead.

These models worked at speeds several orders of magnitude faster than physics-based models, and they could run on laptops instead of supercomputers. Newer models, such as Pangu-Weather and GraphCast, have matched or even outperformed leading physics-based systems for some predictions, such as temperature.

A woman in a red sari tosses pellets into a rice field. — A farmer distributes fertilizer in India.
EqualStock IN from Pexels

AI-driven models require dramatically less computing power than the traditional systems.

While physics-based systems may need thousands of CPU hours to run a single forecast cycle, modern AI models can do so using a single GPU in minutes once the model has been trained. This is because the intensive part of the AI model training, which learns relationships in the climate from data, can use those learned relationships to produce a forecast without further extensive computation – that’s a major shortcut. In contrast, the physics-based models need to calculate the physics for each variable in each place and time for every forecast produced.

While training these models from physics-based model data does require significant upfront investment, once the AI is trained, the model can generate large ensemble forecasts — sets of multiple forecast runs — at a fraction of the computational cost of physics-based models.

Even the expensive step of training an AI weather model shows considerable computational savings. One study found the early model FourCastNet could be trained in about an hour on a supercomputer. That made its time to presenting a forecast thousands of times faster than state-of-the-art, physics-based models.

The result of all these advances: high-resolution forecasts globally within seconds on a single laptop or desktop computer.

Research is also rapidly advancing to expand the use of AI for forecasts weeks to months ahead, which helps farmers in making planting choices. AI models are already being tested for improving extreme weather prediction, such as for extratropical cyclones and abnormal rainfall.

Tailoring forecasts for real-world decisions

While AI weather models offer impressive technical capabilities, they are not plug-and-play solutions. Their impact depends on how well they are calibrated to local weather, benchmarked against real-world agricultural conditions, and aligned with the actual decisions farmers need to make, such as what and when to plant, or when drought is likely.

To unlock its full potential, AI forecasting must be connected to the people whose decisions it’s meant to guide.

That’s why groups such as AIM for Scale, a collaboration we work with as researchers in public policy and sustainability, are helping governments to develop AI tools that meet real-world needs, including training users and tailoring forecasts to farmers’ needs. International development institutions and the World Meteorological Organization are also working to expand access to AI forecasting models in low- and middle-income countries.

AI forecasts can be tailored to context-specific agricultural needs, such as identifying optimal planting windows, predicting dry spells or planning pest management. Disseminating those forecasts through text messages, radio, extension agents or mobile apps can then help reach farmers who can benefit. This is especially true when the messages themselves are constantly tested and improved to ensure they meet the farmers’ needs.

A recent study in India found that when farmers there received more accurate monsoon forecasts, they made more informed decisions about what and how much to plant – or whether to plant at all – resulting in better investment outcomes and reduced risk.

A new era in climate adaptation

AI weather forecasting has reached a pivotal moment. Tools that were experimental just five years ago are now being integrated into government weather forecasting systems. But technology alone won’t change lives.

With support, low- and middle-income countries can build the capacity to generate, evaluate and act on their own forecasts, providing valuable information to farmers that has long been missing in weather services.

About the Author:

Paul Winters, Professor of Sustainable Development, University of Notre Dame and Amir Jina, Assistant Professor of Public Policy, University of Chicago

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

03 Sep

Lithium Prices Surge Amid Global Supply Disruptions

Source: Streetwise Reports (9/2/25)

The lithium market faced renewed volatility with supply disruptions in China and South America. Read more to see how Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ) fits into this shifting landscape.

The lithium market experienced renewed volatility in August as supply interruptions in China and South America lifted prices, even without a fundamental shortage. On August 10, Reuters reported that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) suspended production at its Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi province after its permit expired. The mine represented about 46,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent annually, or roughly 3% of forecast global output for 2025. Reuters noted that the announcement “sparked a surge in lithium futures and miners’ share prices, amid a broader crackdown on overcapacity.”

Discovery Alert wrote on August 11 that CATL’s suspension represented “a significant disruption to global lithium supply chains,” with futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange immediately jumping 8%, marking the sharpest daily movement in more than 18 months. The site noted that lithium’s nearly 90% price decline since its 2022 peak had left producers struggling, and that this disruption provided “the first significant upward price catalyst” after two years of declines.

Stockhead wrote on August 12 that Australian spodumene producers quickly rallied on the news, with Liontown Resources Limited (LTR.AX) gaining 17.75% to close at 99.5 cents and Pilbara Minerals Limited (PLS.AX) jumping 19.17% to US$2.30. Other producers such as Mineral Resources Limited (MIN.AX), IGO Limited (IGO.AX), and Piedmont Lithium Inc (PLL:NASDAQ) also posted double-digit gains.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence wrote in a special issue dated August 14 that the Jianxiawo site accounted for around 30% of Jiangxi’s lithium output, ~3% of global LCE supply, and ~5% of global concentrate. The report confirmed that battery-grade lithium carbonate trades in China were assessed at 7.5% higher week-over-week by August 13. Daisy Jennings-Gray, head of prices at Benchmark, stated that “EXW China lithium carbonate prices are already heading as high as 80,000–87,000 RMB/tonne (US$11.1–12.1/kg), after operations at CATL’s Jianxiawo mine have been suspended.”

Concerns grew further in mid-August when reports surfaced of an acid tank explosion at Albemarle’s La Negra chemical plant in Chile. According to the Benchmark report, one of the plant’s three production lines was forced offline for three days. The disruption was limited, but the news added to supply concerns that were already influencing market sentiment.

Sector Dynamics: Lithium Outlook Stabilizing Amid U.S. Growth and Chinese Supply Cuts

Despite the shutdowns, Benchmark noted that China held significant inventories of approximately 130,000 tonnes LCE in July. The report explained that “this week’s price movements are primarily being driven by sentiment and reflect the speculative nature of lithium trading in China,” as buyers evaluated the duration of mine closures and their impact on downstream converters.

On July 21, Investing News Network highlighted that despite multi-quarter price weakness, long-term drivers such as electric vehicle adoption and energy storage demand remained intact. Paul Lusty told the outlet that “the fundamentals are really still very strong, and these are anchored in some very powerful, mega trends that we see developing within the global economy; the urgent drive for climate change mitigation, the once in a generational shift in the global energy system, and also the rise of energy intensive technologies such as artificial intelligence.”

Although disruptions at Jianxiawo and La Negra did not create an immediate structural deficit, sentiment-driven gains underscored the market’s sensitivity to regional supply interruptions. The August 14 Benchmark report concluded that while “the market will not move into deficit in the near term or by 2026,” uncertainty over the duration of closures and regulatory actions in China was likely to keep prices elevated in the short term.

In a Stockhead Mining article dated August 21, Kristie Batten highlighted the evolving role of the United States in lithium production and policy. While the U.S. had only one operating lithium mine in 2025, exploration investment surged, placing it third globally. S&P Global Commodity Insights analyst Alice Yu noted that the U.S. imported roughly 90% of its lithium supply in 2024, largely through intermediaries in South Korea and Japan that rely on refined Chinese material.

Yu reported that geopolitical shifts and energy security concerns were now shaping U.S. policy, with recent budget changes reducing support for electric vehicles while redirecting funds toward domestic critical minerals capacity. The U.S. Department of Energy recently announced plans to deploy nearly US$1 billion in funding for critical minerals, including up to US$500 million for lithium-related processing and recycling, and US$50 million for emerging technologies such as direct lithium extraction.

Despite recent price weakness, spodumene hit a 2025 high of US$1,000 per ton earlier in August. Two permitted U.S. projects, Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass and Ioneer’s Rhyolite Ridge, remain under development, with Thacker Pass expected to enter production in late 2027. Additional projects designated as FAST-41 Transparency Projects aim to expedite permitting.

Yu concluded that strong 2024 exploration activity could yield long-term production gains, reinforcing the strategic imperative for supply diversification outside China.

UBS analysts signaled renewed optimism in the lithium sector following Chinese regulatory interventions that temporarily shuttered major production assets. According to a Stockhead on August 27, UBS upgraded its spodumene price forecasts by 9 to 32% across the 2026 to 2028 window, citing supply risks that could impact up to 240,000 tons per annum of lithium carbonate equivalent—roughly 15% of global supply. The bank now forecasts spodumene prices of US$1,250 per ton in 2026, US$1,150 per ton in 2027, and US$1,350 per ton in 2028.

UBS analysts Lachlan Shaw and Sky Han stated that additional mine suspensions in China’s Yichun region and potential curtailments in Qinghai could further strain supply. At the time of the report, lithium carbonate prices had risen 18% since late July, following the suspension of CATL’s Jianxiawo mine and various operations by Zijin’s Zangge Mining. UBS’s base case for 2025 includes a lithium carbonate price of 100,000 RMB per ton (approximately US$13,980 per ton). The analysts also raised equity ratings and price targets for several producers, citing market signals of tightening supply and growing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage.

Despite improvements in price sentiment, the report also noted downside risks if suspended operations return to market or high-cost supply from Africa is reactivated. As of the report date, lithium carbonate was priced at US$11,388 per ton, and 6% Li₂O spodumene at US$920 per ton.

Atlas Lithium Corp.

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ) is a lithium development company focused on advancing its Neves Project to production. The Neves Project has received operational permitting, and its dense media separation plant has been acquired and transported to Brazil. With approximately 797 square kilometers of lithium mineral rights, Atlas Lithium owns the largest lithium exploration footprint in Brazil among publicly listed companies. Additionally, Atlas Lithium currently holds an approximate 30% ownership stake in Atlas Critical Minerals Corp. (JUPGF:OTCQB).

On August 18, Atlas reported strong exploration progress at Salinas. Initial drilling confirmed spodumene-rich mineralization close to surface, with grades above 2.0% Li₂O at depths of just 23 meters. CEO Marc Fogassa said the early results “exceeded our expectations,” noting the project’s potential as a future growth frontier alongside Neves.

The Neves Lithium Project remains Atlas’s top priority. A definitive feasibility study prepared by SGS Canada projected an internal rate of return of 145%, a net present value of US$539 million, and a payback period of 11 months. Operating costs were estimated at US$489 per tonne, placing Neves among Brazil’s lowest-cost projects. With mining concession approvals in place and a processing plant already transported to Brazil, Atlas is progressing Neves toward production while expanding its regional exploration portfolio.

Analysts have highlighted the company’s positioning. On July 14, H.C. Wainwright & Co. analyst Heiko Ihle maintained a Buy rating with an US$18 target, citing low operating costs and offtake and investment agreements totaling US$80 million. On August 5, Alliance Global Partners analyst Jake Sekelsky reiterated a Buy rating following release of the Neves DFS. He called the study “an inflection point on the road to lithium production,” referencing its US$540 million net present value at a lithium price assumption of US$1,700 per tonne and modest capital expenditure requirement of US$58 million.

What Could Drive Atlas Lithium Forward

Atlas Lithium’s near-term catalysts remain centered on the Neves Lithium Project in Minas Gerais, as specified in its August 2025 Investor Presentation. A definitive feasibility study projected an after-tax net present value of US$539 million, an internal rate of return of 145%, and a payback period of just 11 months. Average annual production was estimated at 146,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate at an operating cost of US$489 per tonne, supported by a direct capital expenditure requirement of US$57.6 million.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ)

	Retail: 52%
	Insiders & Management: 27%
	Strategic Investors: 11%
	Institutional: 10%

52%

27%

11%

10%

^*Share Structure as of 8/14/2025

Source: Atlas Lithium Corp.

The company has already secured all necessary operational permits to assemble and operate its processing plant and to begin mining operations at one of its ore bodies, with a dense media separation facility acquired and transported to Brazil. Atlas also benefits from strategic partnerships with Tier 1 buyers. Agreements with Chengxin, Yahua, and Mitsui & Co. included US$40 million in stock purchases already received and a committed US$40 million prepayment for offtake.

Exploration provides further optionality. The Neves Project hosts 84 mapped pegmatite outcrops, with over 4,500 soil samples collected and multiple anomalies identified for follow-up drilling. Early drilling at the Salinas Project, wholly owned by Atlas, has also confirmed near-surface spodumene mineralization, positioning it as a potential expansion frontier.

Ownership and Share Structure

According to Atlas Lithium, its management and insiders own about 27% of the company’s shares. Strategic partners, including Mitsui & Co., hold another roughly 10%. Institutional investors own about 10%. The rest, about 53%, is in retail.

Refinitiv reports that Atlas has 19.58M outstanding shares and 11.43M free float traded shares. Its market cap is US$117.3M. Its 52-week range is US$3.54–12.48 per share.

Important Disclosures:

Atlas Lithium and Atlas Critical are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports and pay SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Atlas Lithium and Atlas Critical.
James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Metals Opinions

02 Sep

Gold Near Record Highs Poised for a New Peak

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices extended their rally on Tuesday, reaching 3,490 USD per troy ounce, approaching an all-time high. The metal found support in growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as September, along with a concurrent weakening of the US dollar.

Last week’s US inflation report bolstered hopes of a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy. Markets are now pricing in an almost 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Officials from the central bank itself reinforced this view after Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, openly expressed her support for such a move.

The key event risk this week will be the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected to define the scale and pace of the upcoming rate-cutting cycle.

US trade policy is also creating substantial uncertainty. An appeals court ruled that the majority of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump were illegal, but kept them in force until 14 October to allow for an appeal to the Supreme Court. This political uncertainty is further fuelling demand for safe-haven assets.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 chart:

The XAU/USD pair completed an upward wave towards the 3,508.65 USD level. The focus now shifts to a potential corrective wave towards the breached resistance level, which could now function as support. The target for this correction is 3,469 USD. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s supportive economic outlook, a test of this support could see prices stage another rally, with the first target likely being the 3,530 USD mark. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose histogram and signal line remain above zero and continue to rise, confirming the potential continuation of the upward trend. However, minor corrections cannot be ruled out.

H1 chart:

After testing the 3,500 USD level, the price is forming a corrective wave. The target for this pullback could be the support at 3,469 USD. Testing this level could pave the way for the resumption of the upward trend. This outlook is technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal lines, after a period of increase, are now declining towards 50.0.

Conclusion

A combination of dovish Fed expectations, a softer dollar, and geopolitical trade uncertainties continues to support gold prices. The technical picture suggests a brief period of consolidation or a shallow pullback is likely before a potential retest of record highs.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Metals Opinions

27 Aug

Trump’s push to fire Fed governor threatens central bank independence − and that isn’t good news for sound economic stewardship (or battling inflation)

By Ana Carolina Garriga, University of Essex and Cristina Bodea, Michigan State University

The fate of Lisa Cook, who is fighting attempts by President Donald Trump to remove her from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, has huge implications for a keystone of good economic policy: central bank independence.

At the heart of her firing attempt – and other moves to undermine the Fed by the Trump administration – is a power struggle. Central banks, which are public institutions that manage a country’s currency and its monetary policy, have an extraordinary amount of power. By controlling the flow of money and credit in a country, they can affect economic growth, inflation, employment and financial stability.

These are powers that many politicians would like to control or at least manipulate. That’s because monetary policy can provide governments with economic boosts at key times, such as around elections or during periods of falling popularity.

The problem is that short-lived, politically motivated moves may be detrimental to the long-term economic well-being of a nation. They may, in other words, saddle the economy with problems further down the line.

That is why central banks across the globe tend to receive significant leeway to set interest rates independently and free from the electoral wishes of politicians.

In fact, monetary policymaking that is data-driven and technocratic, rather than politically motivated, has since the early 1990s been seen as the gold standard of governance of national finances and has largely achieved its main purpose of keeping inflation relatively low and stable.

But despite independence being seen to work, central banks over the past decade have come under increased pressure from politicians.

Trump is one recent example. In his first term as president, he criticized his own choice to head the U.S. Federal Reserve and demanded lower interest rates.

Attacks on the Fed have accelerated in Trump’s second administration. In April 2025, Trump lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell in an online post accusing him of being “TOO LATE AND WRONG” on interest rate cuts, while suggesting that the central banker’s “termination cannot come fast enough!” Unable to force Powell out, Trump has now brought the power struggle to a head with his firing of Cook, nominally over allegations that the Fed governor falsified records in a mortgage application. Cook has said that the president does not have the grounds or authority to fire her.

As political economists, we are not surprised to see politicians try to exert influence on central banks. For one thing, central banks remain part of the government bureaucracy, and independence granted to them can always be reversed – either by changing laws or backtracking on established practices.

Moreover, the reason politicians may want to interfere in monetary policy is that low interest rates remain a potent, quick method to boost an economy. And while politicians know that there are costs to besieging an independent central bank – financial markets may react negatively or inflation may flare up – short-term control of a powerful policy tool can prove irresistible.

Legislating independence

If monetary policy is such a coveted policy tool, how have central banks held off politicians and stayed independent? And is this independence being eroded?

Broadly, central banks are protected by laws that offer long tenures to their leadership, allow them to focus policy primarily on inflation, and severely limit lending to the rest of the government.

Of course, such legislation cannot anticipate all future contingencies, which may open the door for political interference or for practices that break the law. And sometimes central bankers are unceremoniously fired.

However, laws do keep politicians in line. For example, even in authoritarian countries, laws protecting central banks from political interference have helped reduce inflation and restricted central bank lending to the government.

In our own research, we have detailed the ways that laws have insulated central banks from the rest of the government, but also the recent trend of eroding this legal independence.

Politicizing appointees

Around the world, appointments to central bank leadership are political – elected politicians select candidates based on career credentials, political affiliation and, importantly, their dislike or tolerance of inflation.

But lawmakers in different countries exercise different degrees of political control.

A 2025 study shows that the large majority of central bank leaders – about 70% – are appointed by the head of government alone or with the intervention of other members of the executive branch. This ensures that the preferences of the central bank are closer to the government’s, which can boost the central bank’s legitimacy in democratic countries, but at the risk of permeability to political influence.

Alternatively, appointments can involve the legislative power or even the central bank’s own board. In the U.S., while the president nominates members of the Federal Reserve Board, the Senate can and has rejected unconventional or incompetent candidates.

Moreover, even if appointments are political, many central bankers stay in office long after the people who appointed them have been voted out. By the end of 2023, the most common length of the governors’ appointment is five years, and in 41 countries the legal mandate was six years or longer. Powell is set to stay on as Fed chair until his term expires in 2026. The Fed chair position has traditionally been protected by law, as Powell himself acknowledged in November 2024: “We’re not removable except for cause. We serve very long terms, seemingly endless terms. So we’re protected into law. Congress could change that law, but I don’t think there’s any danger of that.”

In the 2000s, several countries shortened the tenure of their central banks’ governors to four or five years. Sometimes, this was part of broader restrictions in central bank independence, as was the case in Iceland in 2001, Ghana in 2002 and Romania in 2004.

The low inflation objective

As of 2023, all but six central banks globally had low inflation as their main goal. Yet many central banks are required by law to try to achieve additional and sometimes conflicting goals, such as financial stability, full employment or support for the government’s policies.

This is the case for 38 central banks that either have the explicit dual mandate of price stability and employment or more complex goals. In Argentina, for example, the central bank’s mandate is to provide “employment and economic development with social equity.”

Conflicting objectives can open central banks to politicization. In the U.S. the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment. These goals are often complementary, and economists have argued that low inflation is a prerequisite for sustainable high levels of employment.

But in times of overlapping high inflation and high unemployment, such as in the late 1970s or when the COVID-19 crisis was winding down in 2022, the Fed’s dual mandate has become active territory for political wrangling.

Since 2000, at least 23 countries have expanded the focus of their central banks beyond just inflation.

Limits on government lending

The first central banks were created to help secure finance for governments fighting wars. But today, limiting lending to governments is at the core of protecting price stability from unsustainable fiscal spending.

History is dotted with the consequences of not doing so. In the 1960s and 1970s, for example, central banks in Latin America printed money to support their governments’ spending goals. But it resulted in massive inflation while not securing growth or political stability.

Today, limits on lending are strongly associated with lower inflation in the developing world. And central banks with high levels of independence can reject a government’s financing requests or dictate the terms of loans.

Yet over the past two decades, almost 40 countries have made their central banks less able to limit central government funding. In the more extreme examples – such as in Belarus, Ecuador or even New Zealand – they have turned the central bank into a potential financier for the government.

Scapegoating central bankers

In recent years, governments have tried to influence central banks by pushing for lower interest rates, making statements criticizing bank policy or calling for meetings with central bank leadership.

At the same time, politicians have blamed the same central bankers for a number of perceived failings: not anticipating economic shocks such as the 2007-09 financial crisis; exceeding their authority with quantitative easing; or creating massive inequality or instability while trying to save the financial sector.

And since mid-2021, major central banks have struggled to keep inflation low, raising questions from populist and antidemocratic politicians about the merits of an arm’s-length relationship.

But chipping away at central bank independence, as Trump appears to be doing with his open criticism of the Fed chair and his removal of a member of the bank’s Board of Governors, is a historically sure way to high inflation.

This is an updated version of an article that was originally published on June 14, 2024.

About the Author:

Ana Carolina Garriga, Professor. Department of Government, University of Essex and Cristina Bodea, Professor of Political Science, Michigan State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

27 Aug

Breaking New Ground in Mortgage Innovation

Source: John Newell (8/25/25)

John Newell of John Newell & Associates explains why he thinks Beeline Holdings Inc. (BLNE:NASDAQ) is positioned for a potential reversal.

While many financial companies are struggling in today’s higher-rate environment, Beeline Holdings Inc. (BLNE:NASDAQ) is carving out a niche with AI-driven mortgage technology, a novel home equity platform, and a growing base of loyal customers.

The stock, now in the early stages of a technical base, is catching attention as both fundamentals and charts begin to align.

About the Company

Beeline is a digital-first mortgage and home equity platform that integrates lending, title, and AI-driven sales tools.

Its proprietary technology, including the “Bob” AI agent and the Hive automation engine, allows the company to close loans in 14–21 days, about half the industry average.

In Q2 2025, Beeline reported revenue of US$1.7 million, up 27% sequentially, while reducing debt by US$2.7 million and cutting recurring monthly expenses by US$0.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed to US$2.8 million compared to US$3.5 million in Q1, reflecting the early benefits of cost discipline and efficiency gains.

What makes Beeline stand out, however, is its new Beeline Equity platform. This product allows homeowners to sell fractional equity stakes in their homes, unlocking liquidity without taking on new debt, interest payments, or monthly obligations. Management expects the product to be a major contributor to revenue beginning with its full launch in October.

Management Team

Beeline is led by CEO Nick Liuzza, a fintech veteran who previously co-founded Linear Title, which was later sold for a 250x return on investment.

COO Jess Kennedy and CFO Chris Moe bring decades of operational and financial expertise, while CMO Jason Johnson and CTO Cameron Slabosz add marketing and technical depth.

The team has already proven its ability to scale fintech businesses, and its founder-led commitment is a central reason analysts believe Beeline can capture outsized market share in a slow-to-evolve mortgage industry.

Share Structure

Beeline has approximately 19.6 million shares outstanding and a market capitalization of just US$32 million at recent prices around US$1.63. Ladenburg Thalmann initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a US$4.50 price target, citing unique product offerings, cost discipline, and significant upside from the equity product launch.

With US$5.2 million in debt already paid down in 2025 and full debt elimination expected by October, the balance sheet is rapidly strengthening. This sets the stage for operating profitability, which management believes is achievable by January 2026.

Technical Analysis

The stock collapsed from a 52-week high near US$30 into the low single digits, but is now stabilizing and forming a base between US$1.00 and US$1.80. This structure suggests institutional accumulation.

Key breakout levels and upside targets:

First Target: US$2.20, confirmation of a breakout.
Second Target: US$3.80, aligning with prior resistance.
Third Target: US$4.50, matching Ladenburg’s price target and near declining 200-day average.

Momentum indicators have flattened, selling pressure has eased, and volume spikes in July hint that the worst may be behind. A sustained move through US$2.20 could open the door for a recovery rally.

Technical Indicators

Momentum indicators such as RSI are neutral, consistent with a consolidation phase. Meanwhile, MACD has flattened, reflecting reduced downside momentum.

Importantly, selling volume has contracted significantly, suggesting supply may be exhausted and setting the stage for an upside resolution.

Pattern Consideration

The stocks’ trajectory into the March peak was near-vertical, followed by an equally sharp collapse.

If the principle of “same way up, same way down” holds, the reverse could also apply: a strong breakout could fuel a recovery rally back toward prior levels faster than many expect.

Finally

Beeline Holdings appears to be transitioning from a falling-angel scenario into a base-building stage.

With supply drying up and buyers beginning to test resistance, the stock is positioned for a potential reversal.

A confirmed breakout through US$2.20 would set the stage for a technical recovery toward US$3.80–US$4.50.

Conclusion

Beeline Holdings is not without risk. The company must execute on its product launches, maintain regulatory compliance, and manage a challenging housing market. But the opportunity is compelling: an AI-driven mortgage platform gaining traction, a unique equity release product tapping into a US$36 trillion market, and a stock trading at just over US$30 million market cap.

For speculative investors, the setup is attractive: improving fundamentals, supportive management, a tightening share structure, and a technical chart pointing toward higher levels. At the current closing price, Beeline, US$1.48, merits a Speculative Buy recommendation.

Investors can read more information here on the company’s website

Beeline Holdings Inc. (BLNE:NASDAQ) closed for trading at US$1.48 on August 22, 2025.

Important Disclosures:

For this article, the Company has paid Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, US$3,000.
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Beeline Holdings Inc.
Author Certification and Compensation: [John Newell of John Newell and Associates] was retained and compensated as an independent contractor by Street Smart for writing this article. Mr. Newell holds a Chartered Investment Management (CIM) designation (2015) and a U.S. Portfolio Manager designation (2015). The recommendations and opinions expressed in this content reflect the personal, independent, and objective views of the author regarding any and all of the companies discussed. No part of the compensation received by the author was, is, or will be directly or indirectly tied to the specific recommendations or views expressed.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services, or securities of any company.

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John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Opinions Real Estate Stock Market News

24 Aug

Speculators raise Euro Speculator Bets while British Pound Bets Rebound

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (13,908 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (3,347 contracts), the EuroFX (3,314 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,286 contracts), the Swiss Franc (765 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (617 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (259 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-9,172 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,982 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,002 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-458 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators raise Euro Speculator Bets while British Pound Bets Rebound

Highlighting the currency’s speculator data this week was a rebound in the British Pound Sterling and a push higher in the Euro speculator bets.

First off, the British Pound Sterling bets surged this week by almost +14,000 contracts. This follows five straight weeks of declines that had brought the Sterling contracts from a positive bullish position as recently as July 22nd into a bearish position that has persisted for the past four weeks. Previously, the GBP speculator position had been in a bullish standing for 22 consecutive weeks from February until July 22nd.

Helping to dent the British Pound Sterling sentiment was an interest rate cut in early August by the Bank of England. Despite the bearish sentiment in the Sterling, the exchange rate for the British Pound against the US Dollar has been higher on the year and has touched the highest levels since 2021, around the 1.3800 level.

So far throughout 2025, the Pound Sterling is up by roughly 11% against the US Dollar and could see further gains as the US Federal Reserve hinted there could be rate cuts coming for the US economy. In fact, 75% of market participants are expecting a 25-basis interest rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Next up, the Euro currency speculator position rose this week by a modest +3,304 contracts. This breaks a streak of four straight weeks of declines and pushes the current speculator standing to the highest level of the past three weeks. The Euro speculator positioning continues to be highly bullish as spec positions have been over +100,000 contracts for 10 consecutive weeks, with this week’s total being +118,745 bullish contracts. Overall, the Euro has now been in a bullish position for 24 straight weeks after turning bullish on March 11th.

In the exchange rate prices, the Euro has been higher by approximately 15% against the US Dollar this year. Currently, the Euro trades at the 1.1739 exchange rate against the US Dollar and has topped out around 1.1890 this year, which was the highest level seen since August of 2021.

Currency Exchange Rates: Mexican Peso leads price changes for last 5 days

The weekly price performance of the major currencies over the last 5 days showed that the Mexican Peso led the way with a weekly rise of 0.82%. The Swiss Franc was next with an increase of 0.66% on the week.

The Yen and the Euro were both slightly above no change on the week, with changes of 0.19% and 0.16%, respectively. The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a -0.04% change. Same with the Canadian Dollar, which had a decline of -0.10% decline for the week.

The British Pound was slightly down with a -0.27% dip. The Australian Dollar was lower by -0.30%, Bitcoin fell by -0.31% and the Brazilian Real dipped by -0.45%. Finally, the New Zealand Dollar saw the largest shortfall on the week with a -0.99% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (74 percent) and the Japanese Yen (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the British Pound (20 percent) and the Bitcoin (27 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.8 percent)
EuroFX (74.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (20.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (72.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (71.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (44.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (48.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (59.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (60.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.7 percent)
Bitcoin (27.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (37.0 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (26 percent) and the Mexican Peso (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-15 percent), Australian Dollar (-15 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-4.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.6 percent)
EuroFX (-0.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-27.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-33.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-10.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-10.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-9.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-12.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-10.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-10.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.3 percent)
Bitcoin (26.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (21.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	39.0	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.0	21.5	10.8
– Net Position:	-5,988	5,060	928
– Gross Longs:	11,359	11,278	4,046
– Gross Shorts:	17,347	6,218	3,118
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	96.3	43.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	0.7	23.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 118,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	54.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	75.0	5.6
– Net Position:	118,745	-166,431	47,686
– Gross Longs:	252,719	452,297	94,142
– Gross Shorts:	133,974	618,728	46,456
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	24.5	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	3.7	-19.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	47.2	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	37.8	12.9
– Net Position:	-25,185	20,792	4,393
– Gross Longs:	81,303	103,816	32,702
– Gross Shorts:	106,488	83,024	28,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	72.5	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.8	26.6	-12.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 77,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,234 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	40.1	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	63.0	9.8
– Net Position:	77,581	-79,882	2,301
– Gross Longs:	168,363	139,967	36,614
– Gross Shorts:	90,782	219,849	34,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.0	30.8	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	12.3	-23.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -27,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	75.4	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	32.3	25.6
– Net Position:	-27,278	34,522	-7,244
– Gross Longs:	6,459	60,354	13,224
– Gross Shorts:	33,737	25,832	20,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	55.8	48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	22.4	-36.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,002 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	74.8	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.8	29.1	14.2
– Net Position:	-93,079	100,818	-7,739
– Gross Longs:	19,028	165,165	23,694
– Gross Shorts:	112,107	64,347	31,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	55.8	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	13.8	-30.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -94,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,982 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	66.9	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.1	16.7	11.7
– Net Position:	-94,887	93,396	1,491
– Gross Longs:	31,668	124,358	23,253
– Gross Shorts:	126,555	30,962	21,762
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.0	85.6	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	15.0	-12.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	53.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	42.9	11.0
– Net Position:	-4,070	5,069	-999
– Gross Longs:	12,986	25,428	4,229
– Gross Shorts:	17,056	20,359	5,228
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	39.8	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	13.5	-38.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.5	37.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	79.7	2.0
– Net Position:	64,525	-67,928	3,403
– Gross Longs:	91,974	61,700	6,638
– Gross Shorts:	27,449	129,628	3,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.7	39.3	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-4.1	-8.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.5	34.5	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	66.1	1.0
– Net Position:	30,410	-33,494	3,084
– Gross Longs:	61,948	36,559	4,144
– Gross Shorts:	31,538	70,053	1,060
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	29.7	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	15.8	-6.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.6	5.4	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.8	2.7	3.6
– Net Position:	-1,200	758	442
– Gross Longs:	23,064	1,552	1,493
– Gross Shorts:	24,264	794	1,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	73.5	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-25.0	-5.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 Aug

Speculator Extremes: MSCI EAFE & FedFunds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 19th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in at the top of the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a change of 3 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 5,439 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -2,355 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in second this week in the extreme standings as the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level resides at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 4 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 33,845 net contracts this week with a decline of -8,467 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week as the Live Cattle speculator level is at 83 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 106,141 net contracts this week with no change in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes next in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Lean Hogs speculator level sits at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -16 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 69,709 net contracts this week with a decrease by -4,218 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level is at a 80 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a change of -7 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -242,162 net contracts this week with a drop by -33,030 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The FedFunds speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a large drop by -62 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -317,054 net contracts this week with a reduction by -83,387 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -38 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 120,209 net contracts this week with a rise of 3,467 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The USD Index speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -5,988 net contracts this week with an increase of 259 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -70,293 net contracts this week with a slide of -1,781 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Next, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 0 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -2,508,383 net contracts this week with a change of 57,986 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

21 Aug

Would You Invest in a Despised Company?

Source: Chris Reilly (8/20/25)

Chris Reilly of RiskHedge takes a look at how some of the most influential market-changing businesses were once despised.

You’ve heard of the phrase “buy when there’s blood in the streets.”

Baron Rothschild invented this expression in 1815 during the Battle of Waterloo. While British forces clashed with Napoleon’s army, the Baron wagered his entire personal wealth on British government securities.

No one was willing to finance Britain when defeat seemed possible, but Rothschild deployed his capital when the streets were literally covered in blood.

And following Britain’s victory over Napoleon, he catapulted to the pinnacle of global wealth rankings.

Rothschild employed one of the most reliable strategies for financial success. He identified an asset everyone avoided . . . Acquired it . . . And patiently waited for sentiment to shift in his direction.

Purchasing a disliked investment is challenging in practice. You’ll experience feelings of recklessness. Yet acquiring underappreciated gems frequently leads to substantial returns. Indeed, numerous revolutionary market leaders share an unusual characteristic — they were initially disliked.

Consider Netflix

We recognize Netflix Inc. (NFLX:NASDAQ) as the innovator that created online streaming. But previously. . .

Netflix began as the pioneer in digital DVD rental services. Remember ordering films online and receiving discs in your mailbox days later? Americans adored the original Netflix. You enjoyed unlimited films for merely $10 monthly.

Netflix eliminated the worst aspect of movie rentals: late penalties. In fact, it was so popular that many Americans barely noticed when Netflix introduced streaming in 2007. They preferred physical discs! By 2011, Netflix had surpassed 20 million subscribers. And they continued shipping millions of DVDs in their signature envelopes daily.

Additionally, they were spending $600 million on postal expenses. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings developed a strategic plan to transition customers away from physical media.

He recognized streaming would eventually eliminate physical formats. So Hastings decided it was time to make a decisive move toward streaming. Against his team’s recommendations, he divided Netflix subscriptions. Customers could now stream content for just $8 monthly.

However, those still wanting DVD rentals would need to pay $16 monthly — a 60% increase. While Netflix was prepared to commit fully to streaming, customers weren’t — and they rebelled. Netflix lost approximately one million subscribers within several months. And its stock value dropped 77%:

Hastings’ reputation plummeted. He transitioned from being named Fortune’s Businessperson of the Year in 2010 . . . to The New York Times’ “Worst CEO” of 2011.

Interestingly, this presented an extraordinary opportunity to acquire Netflix shares. Hastings’ transition to streaming proved to be among the most brilliant corporate decisions. As streaming quality improved, most consumers discarded their DVD players.

Indeed, Netflix completely transformed our viewing habits. Physical DVDs now seem prehistoric. Netflix had 20 million paying subscribers in 2011 when they gambled everything on streaming. Today they exceed 300 million. And investors who purchased Netflix in 2011, when most avoided it, have realized enormous profits.

Now, Examine Tesla

During Tesla Inc.’s (TSLA:NASDAQ) initial decade, Tesla exclusively sold luxury electric vehicles exceeding $70,000. But in 2016, Musk unveiled their first mainstream vehicle, the Model 3. Tesla planned to price the Model 3 at just $35,000, making it accessible to millions of middle-income buyers.

This vehicle was poised to revolutionize the automotive industry. Its introduction should have marked Tesla’s defining moment. Instead, it nearly bankrupted the company. In 2015, Tesla was manufacturing approximately three vehicles daily.

To successfully produce the mainstream Model 3, they would need to manufacture 5,000 vehicles weekly. Tesla wasn’t prepared for this massive production increase and consistently missed targets.

Elon Musk worked 22 hours daily, seven days a week, addressing production challenges. He regularly slept at the factory because he “didn’t have time to go home and shower.” Yet almost a year after the Model 3 launch, Tesla still struggled to produce even 2,000 vehicles weekly. When earnings declined due to unexpectedly high production expenses, its stock plunged to nearly its lowest point since 2016:

Tesla’s shares had stagnated for five years, becoming Wall Street’s most despised stock. Investment bank Morgan Stanley reduced its worst-case projection to $10/share. Investors wagered a record $15 billion against Tesla’s stock. This was more than twice the amount bet against any other market stock.

Just as collapse seemed imminent, Tesla rebounded dramatically. In late 2019, they surprised Wall Street by delivering a record 97,000 vehicles. Tesla followed with another milestone, shipping over 100,000 vehicles in a single quarter for the first time. Investors who purchased Tesla at its lowest point have been handsomely rewarded.

What’s the Key To Investing in Despised Stocks?

Investing revolves around expectations. Stocks frequently rise — and fall — based on performance relative to investor expectations. When people believe a company will dominate globally, it creates a significant threshold that’s difficult to surpass.

For instance, in 2006, Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL:NASDAQ) announced a 97% revenue increase. You might assume the stock soared following exceptional earnings, correct?

Instead, it plummeted 16% at market opening. Essentially, Wall Street was disappointed because analysts expected Google to grow revenue by over 100%.

Conversely, when investors dislike a stock, they establish such minimal expectations that exceeding them becomes almost inevitable.

So when a disliked company — like Tesla — delivers more vehicles than investors anticipate, its value skyrockets. Ultimately, if you’re seeking substantial returns, you should consider investing in despised stocks.

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Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Tesla Inc.
Chris Reilly: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
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