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Archive for Metals – Page 17

19 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Palladium with a weekly rise of 769 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-21,849 contracts) with Copper (-15,641 contracts), Silver (-5,463 contracts), Platinum (-2,991 contracts) and Steel (-403 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-15-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
Gold433,6115121,13630-141,9306920,79432
Copper224,21562-25,698920,665895,03350
Silver138,215307,86129-23,2646615,40352
Platinum84,557100116-5,866815,86547
Palladium20,511100-9,42369,72296-29924

 

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (63 percent) and Gold (30 percent) lead the metals markets this week.  comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent), Copper (9 percent) and Platinum (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (30.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (40.0 percent)
Silver (29.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (37.3 percent)
Copper (8.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.2 percent)
Platinum (15.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (22.5 percent)
Palladium (5.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (63.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (64.1 percent)

 

Platinum & Gold top the negative 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets have lower six-week trends scores.

Platinum (-19 percent), Gold (-18 percent, Copper (-15 percent) and Silver (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-18.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-3.9 percent)
Silver (-14.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.2 percent)
Copper (-14.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.2 percent)
Platinum (-18.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-21.2 percent)
Palladium (-11.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-20.6 percent)
Steel (-9.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 121,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -21,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 142,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.826.810.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.859.55.4
– Net Position:121,136-141,93020,794
– Gross Longs:233,078116,06244,337
– Gross Shorts:111,942257,99223,543
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.469.232.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.516.5-2.1

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.734.220.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.051.09.1
– Net Position:7,861-23,26415,403
– Gross Longs:50,69247,24028,028
– Gross Shorts:42,83170,50412,625
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.7 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.565.752.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.57.621.4

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.145.48.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.536.25.9
– Net Position:-25,69820,6655,033
– Gross Longs:67,401101,82718,180
– Gross Shorts:93,09981,16213,147
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.688.750.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.611.618.2

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,992 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.328.511.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.335.44.6
– Net Position:1-5,8665,865
– Gross Longs:44,23324,0759,751
– Gross Shorts:44,23229,9413,886
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.8 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.681.446.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.615.94.8

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.758.57.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:65.711.18.7
– Net Position:-9,4239,722-299
– Gross Longs:4,04812,0061,482
– Gross Shorts:13,4712,2841,781
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 15.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.596.123.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.09.210.2

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.387.41.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.870.71.4
– Net Position:-3,5243,558-34
– Gross Longs:1,54718,597274
– Gross Shorts:5,07115,039308
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.037.415.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.810.5-24.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
18 Aug
metals

All Eyes Are on Lithium

Source: Barry Dawes  (8/15/23)

Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities takes a look at current movements in the gold and lithium market. 

Diggers and Dealers 2023

  • Attendance down in 2022 but still an important showcase
  • Big improvements coming for the gold sector market leaders
  • Excellent progress by many juniors

Gold

  • Still heading to US$2000 and beyond
  • Seasonal influences strong
  • Building quietly
  • May be more short-term softness but technicals positive
  • Conviction elusive

US$ Still Strong

  • U.S. is very attractive investment destination!
  • Downtrend broken!
  • Yen makes new 2023 low
  • Swiss Franc about to crack

Bond Market

  • U.S, bond yields peaking
  • But Japan, Germany, and UK yields to rise
  • Is this being too complicating?

Japanese bonds have had a disaster!

A 60% increase in yield on a long-dated bond to 0.58% would have cut the price by >50%!

Yields to 0.8% and then 1.2% would be catastrophic. Junk status for these and the Yen.

UK

Yields are likely to break higher.

It could be a big move, but the uptrend is broken.

Eurozone

Yields definitely rise here.

Yield rises on long-dated low-coupon bonds are devastating.

Gold

Gold has given us another month of misery after what we thought was going to be a seasonal low around the end of June.

The US$ is strengthening again as the world embraces the ending of the period of control by the criminal mafia in the U.S. The U.S. will become the recipient of massive investment capital inflows as these criminals are removed, and the rule of constitutional law is regained.

The electoral fraud that we’ve talked about over the last few years is now coming to the fore in a crescendo. If you haven’t watched this interview with Dr. Jan Halper-Hayes, you should do so now.

Some interesting background:

She was on the Trump Transition Team in 2016/17 and sits on a U.S. Dept Defence panel, so she has standing.

Note at 10:02, Dr. Halper talks about the repatriation of a large amount of gold stolen from the U.S. Treasury and held by the Vatican.

650 plane loads were involved.

This is the first formal announcement of this action I have seen and follows several hints over the past few years.

The tonnages are large (> several thousand tonnes!), so the US$ may be, in fact, already gold backed.

You will recall videos of Trump looking very happy and the Pope looking very angry during a visit to the Vatican in 2017.

Video

The world is recognizing this, and funds are flowing into the US$.

The world is also seeing the junk status of other currencies like the Yen and the Euro, and even the Swiss franc, and is leaving.

Note the weakness in the bond markets in these countries.

However, it seems the commentators are thinking about just the opposite.

Heed the markets!

The gold-backed BRICs issue will be reviewed later this week.

What can we say about gold now?

It is friendless, and the sentiment is awful.

Gold company booths at Diggers were almost ignored last week.

So here is gold’s action over the past month.

Heading lower, but it’s wedging!

This wedge is playing out here and looks constructive with horizontal support.

This is an interesting uptrend here with some good horizontal support.

And the parabola for US$ gold is still there.

Gold in Yen is still rising.

Gold in Euros is holding there too.

Gold Stocks

  • Leading gold stocks building steadily
  • Horizontal support is good
  • Uptrends are wonky but still OK

Still hanging in there.

But sentiment has collapsed again.

ASX Gold Stocks

Last week I managed to catch up with about 40 ASX gold companies at Diggers.

The big stocks are looking very strong.

I also, courtesy of NST (thank you, Stu, Bec, and Sophie), visited the KCGM Super Pit and was astounded by the progress and the direction of this operation.

No wonder NST was so keen to get control of this operation.

I will do some work on this later in the week, but clearly, NST is heading for something brilliant here. It will be >1mozpa, above their conservative 900koz pa, from this expansion from 13mtpa to 27mt, which is underpinned by the existing 120mt of 0.7g/t low-grade stockpiles by 2029. A$1.5bn being well spent!

Jundee and Pogo are also doing very well.

EVN has now turned the corner and is looking much better at Red Lake, and Mungari is now being expanded.

RRL, GOR, RMS, PNR, WGX also are strong.

GMD looks as though it will now start really growing.

DEG just gets better every quarter.

BGL is just out of this world!

ASX Gold Index

  • Pulled back to horizontal support
  • Completing RHS
  • Small-cap developers bottoming
  • Small-caps developers about to outperform XGD

ASX gold stocks rallied nicely in June but have pulled back to important horizontal support around 6600.

The index is still doing work after testing that 7700 neckline.

Still looking quite constructive despite being still about 30% below the 2020 high.

The index broke a downtrend line this morning and is just backtesting.

There is a wedge here as well.

The underlying corporate fundamentals are very strong and are turning up after a pause.

We can’t have a bear market if output and earnings are rising.

The small gold developers, however, were almost ignored at Diggers last week.

Lithium and rare earths were the flavor of the month.

But do watch this mega wedge going back to 2020.

These small-cap developers are ready to break out.

And they are beginning to break out vs. the Gold Index.

Stocks to watch:-

  • AAR
  • AUC
  • AUT
  • BC8
  • GBR
  • OBM
  • GCY
  • AME
  • KZR
  • SGN
  • RXL

More is coming later this week.

Timing is everything.

Heed the markets, not the commentators.

 

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Metals Opinions
12 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets drop this week led by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets drop this week led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the six markets we follow had lower speculator contracts.

The markets leading the declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-21,939 contracts) with Copper (-20,801 contracts), Silver (-17,507 contracts), Platinum (-9,298 contracts), Steel (-1,065 contracts) with Palladium (-895 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-08-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
Gold427,7593142,98540-167,5545924,56942
Copper228,53765-10,057224,908765,14951
Silver137,6312913,32437-30,3495717,02561
Platinum79,9891002,99222-8,591765,59943
Palladium20,470100-10,192010,299100-10735

 

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (64 percent) and Gold (40 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (37 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (40.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (49.7 percent)
Silver (37.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (62.2 percent)
Copper (22.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (40.1 percent)
Platinum (22.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (43.9 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.4 percent)
Steel (64.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (67.2 percent)

 

Gold & Steel are the least negative in the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (-4 percent) and Steel (-5 percent) topped the past six weeks trends for metals but were in negative trends.

Platinum (-21 percent) and Palladium (-21 percent) lead and show the most negative trends currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-3.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.9 percent)
Silver (-8.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.4 percent)
Copper (-11.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (7.7 percent)
Platinum (-21.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-16.6 percent)
Palladium (-20.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.1 percent)
Steel (-5.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 142,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -21,939 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.526.610.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.165.84.8
– Net Position:142,985-167,55424,569
– Gross Longs:228,846113,89044,996
– Gross Shorts:85,861281,44420,427
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.4 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.059.341.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.93.02.9

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.130.319.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.452.37.5
– Net Position:13,324-30,34917,025
– Gross Longs:53,78141,63627,349
– Gross Shorts:40,45771,98510,324
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.6 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.357.161.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.2-1.237.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,744 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.242.37.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.640.25.6
– Net Position:-10,0574,9085,149
– Gross Longs:71,24796,72817,983
– Gross Shorts:81,30491,82012,834
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.275.751.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.29.410.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,992 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.527.412.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.838.15.0
– Net Position:2,992-8,5915,599
– Gross Longs:42,00721,8999,574
– Gross Shorts:39,01530,4903,975
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.7 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.575.743.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.220.8-11.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.560.28.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:70.39.88.6
– Net Position:-10,19210,299-107
– Gross Longs:4,19812,3131,659
– Gross Shorts:14,3902,0141,766
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 16.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.035.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.616.724.0

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.586.21.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.571.40.9
– Net Position:-3,1213,07447
– Gross Longs:1,78017,968227
– Gross Shorts:4,90114,894180
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.136.026.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.35.4-1.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
04 Aug

Week Ahead: US CPI Data To Shape Gold Outlook

By ForexTime 

As the countdown draws closer to the key US jobs report later today (Friday, August 4), investors may already be keeping a close eye on what’s to come in the week ahead.

All eyes will be on the incoming US inflation data, speeches from some Fed officials as well as earnings announcements that could spark volatility across the board.

Monday, August 7

  • CNH: China forex reserves
  • EUR: Germany industrial production
  • USD: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speech

Tuesday, August 8

  • AUD: Australia Westpac consumer confidence, NAB business confidence
  • CNH: China trade
  • EUR: Germany CPI
  • USD: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speech, US trade

Wednesday, August 9

  • CNH: China CPI, PPI, money supply, new yuan loans
  • SPX500_m: Walt Disney earnings

Thursday, August 10

  • JPY: Japan PPI
  • USD: July CPI, initial jobless claims, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Friday, August 11

  • GBP: UK industrial production, GDP
  • USD: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, PPI

The July US Consumer price index (CPI) report published on Thursday, August 10 will most likely act as a key piece of information that determines whether the Fed raises rates one final time in 2023 or not.

When factoring in the Federal Reserve’s shift to data dependence, markets are likely to show increased sensitivity to US economic releases moving forward, including the pending NFP release this afternoon.

Market expectations for US July CPI:

  • CPI year-on-year (July 2023 vs. July 2022) to rise 3.3% from 3.0% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 4.8% from 4.8% seen in June.
  • CPI month-on-month (July 2023 vs June 2023) to remain unchanged at 0.2% from 0.2% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 0.2% from 0.2% seen in June.

There has certainly been proof of inflationary pressures cooling the US economy with annual inflation slowing to 3% back in June – the lowest since March 2021. Despite CPI forecasted to rise in July, the core inflation print is expected to remain unchanged which could support optimism around the Fed being one step closer to taming the inflation beast. Should July’s CPI report print cooler than expected, this could support the argument around the Fed being finished with rate hikes this year.

How might the US CPI data impact gold?

Gold prices could see heightened volatility due to the incoming US inflation report.

After gaining 2.4% in June, the precious metal has already kicked off the new month on a negative note, shedding 1.6% month-to-date (as of writing). The pending US NFP report in a few hours will most likely impact the precious metal’s outlook ahead of the US inflation print. Given gold’s zero-yielding nature and an inverse relationship with the dollar, it may be set for a wild ride in the week ahead.

  • Gold prices could shine if the inflation numbers print below market forecast, as signs of slowing inflation strengthen the argument around the Fed being done with hikes in 2023.
  • Should the inflation figures exceed market forecasts, gold prices are likely to tumble as speculation rises around the Fed hiking rates one more time this year.

 Technical outlook: Bears in control?

Gold prices are under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50 and 100, day SMA. The recent breakdown below the $1940 support could signal further downside towards $1900 and $1871, respectively. Should prices push back above $1955, this could open a path towards $1985 and $2000.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions
30 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was just Copper with a weekly rise of 4,709 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-19,709 contracts), Silver (-6,937 contracts), Steel (-1,356 contracts), Platinum (-249 contracts) and Palladium (-27 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-25-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
Gold476,17625173,63953-198,2104724,57142
Copper234,713701,15932-3,904682,74536
Silver146,8983636,92571-49,7183412,79337
Platinum64,1974815,48751-20,441514,95434
Palladium16,760100-8,37708,899100-52210

 

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (71 percent) and Steel (68 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (53.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (62.2 percent)
Silver (70.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (80.8 percent)
Copper (31.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.8 percent)
Platinum (51.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.9 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.2 percent)
Steel (68.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.1 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (19 percent) and Copper (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-10 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (5.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (7.8 percent)
Silver (18.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (31.9 percent)
Copper (12.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.4 percent)
Platinum (-15.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.5 percent)
Palladium (-10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-14.4 percent)
Steel (0.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 173,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.126.49.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.768.04.8
– Net Position:173,639-198,21024,571
– Gross Longs:248,229125,49147,300
– Gross Shorts:74,590323,70122,729
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.547.441.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-4.7-3.2

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,937 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.526.716.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.460.58.0
– Net Position:36,925-49,71812,793
– Gross Longs:72,78639,19724,478
– Gross Shorts:35,86188,91511,685
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.933.737.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.8-13.6-10.9

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.440.56.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.942.25.7
– Net Position:1,159-3,9042,745
– Gross Longs:73,74395,14016,173
– Gross Shorts:72,58499,04413,428
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.868.435.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.2-13.715.8

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 15,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.825.712.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.757.64.3
– Net Position:15,487-20,4414,954
– Gross Longs:36,48916,5067,742
– Gross Shorts:21,00236,9472,788
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.4 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.351.234.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.014.2-4.8

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -8,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -27 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.461.78.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.48.611.6
– Net Position:-8,3778,899-522
– Gross Longs:3,75210,3461,417
– Gross Shorts:12,1291,4471,939
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 17.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.010.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.29.3-0.4

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.379.21.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.372.50.8
– Net Position:-1,7261,64185
– Gross Longs:3,24219,348276
– Gross Shorts:4,96817,707191
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.231.831.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-0.91.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
27 Jul

Happy Days Are Here Again

Technical Analyst Clive Maund shares a chart analysis of all the HUI index constituents. 

Source: Clive Maund  (7/25/23)

On Wednesday of last week, the 12th, the precious metals (PM) sector broke strongly higher in response to a dramatic plunge in the dollar, as expected and predicted on the site in the article PM SECTOR update – REVERSING TO UPSIDE posted on the 3rd of this month. This breakout is believed to mark the start of an important and sizeable intermediate uptrend in the sector that should at least lead to very worthwhile gains and, depending on how things play out, could lead to spectacular gains, as the dollar is vulnerable to an unprecedented decline due to the fallout from its unfolding loss of global reserve currency status.

Because the fixed costs affect all larger gold mining companies, the rising gold price tends to benefit all of them simultaneously, which is why they all advance higher like a flock of sheep moving together.

While some junior PM mining stocks can and will make huge gains on the back of the expected major uptrend, the more reliable way to play this uptrend, especially for those of more limited means or for whom safety is more important than the prospect of massive gains, is by investing in large and mid-cap gold (and silver) mining stocks.

This is, of course, because large-cap gold mining companies are more established and stable and thus less likely to fall victim to the vagaries that frequently afflict juniors. Because their costs tend to be fixed, the biggest determinant of their bottom line profits is the gold price, and when gold prices rise significantly, the extra revenue generated feeds straight through to their bottom lines.

This is why, when gold prices trend higher, the biggest gold stocks tend to reliably trend higher too, and because of the high fixed costs, the gains made by gold stocks leverage the gains made by gold itself, which is why they are such attractive investments when gold trends strongly higher in the manner that is expected shortly.

As we can see, the HUI Index has had a normal correction over the past couple of months back to the lower boundary of the large uptrend channel shown, with the correction taking the form of a bullish Falling Wedge that presaged a new uptrend.

Because the fixed costs affect all larger gold mining companies, the rising gold price tends to benefit all of them simultaneously, which is why they all advance higher like a flock of sheep moving together, as alluded to in the article posted on the 3rd, in which Royal Gold and Victoria Gold were highlighted as looking very attractive. This is not to say that you shouldn’t go for selected juniors too, but the larger golds that we are looking at here are considered to be bedrock material for a PM stock portfolio.

The companies whose charts are presented below are the constituents of the HUI GoldBUGS index. The XAU Gold and Silver index is not considered because it includes big silvers, which we are going to look at soon in a separate similar article. A 1-year timeframe has been selected for all the charts because it shows the major uptrend that is still in force back to its origins back in September through November of last year. The constituent stocks are presented in alphabetical order. Due to the number of them, commentary, apart from what is written on the charts, is of necessity brief.

The logical point for us to begin is, of course, with the chart for the HUI index itself, which does not not have volume data. As we can see on it, it has had a normal correction over the past couple of months back to the lower boundary of the large uptrend channel shown, with the correction taking the form of a bullish Falling Wedge that presaged a new uptrend, as was the case with a good number of individual stocks too.

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE)

Moving on now to the constituent stocks of the HUI index, we start with Agnico Eagle, which presents a clear and straightforward technical picture of a stock resuming its larger uptrend after a normal correction.

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU:NYSE; ANG:JSE; AGG:ASX; AGD:LSE)

The technical picture for Anglogold Ashanti is especially clear and orderly — it hasn’t quite broken clear out of its corrective downtrend but should do soon.

Augusta Gold Corp. (G:TSX.V: AUGG:OTCQB)

While at first sight, the chart for Augusta Gold does not look anywhere near as positive as that for most of the stocks in the HUI index, if we look more carefully, we can see that it is now completing the Right Shoulder of a Head-and-Shoulders bottom that on shorter-term charts is a clear and fine example of one of these patterns and you may recall that we bought it down in the Head of the pattern.

If it succeeds in breaking out of the larger downtrend channel shown, as it should, a sizeable uptrend will be in prospect.

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX:TSX; GOLD:NYSE)

Although Barrick’s larger uptrend is not quite as robust as some of the other stocks in our list, we can see on its chart that it is already “on its way,” having broken out of the corrective downtrend and completed an intermediate base pattern above the lower boundary of the big uptrend channel and is now embarking on a significant intermediate uptrend that could see it ascend to the top of the big channel and perhaps higher depending on what unfolds.

Compania de Minas Buenaventura (BVN:NYSE; BUE:BVL)

BVN has been in larger corrective phase going back to last November but started its new major upleg earlier than most stocks, following the low late in May, and looks like it is limbering up to take out the strong resistance level shown, and given the now positive outlook for the sector over coming months it shouldn’t have much trouble overcoming it and of course, once it does, we can expect its rate of advance to accelerate, taking it to the upper boundary of the large channel as a minimum objective.

Eldorado Gold Corp. (ELD:TSX; EGO:NYSE)

Last week, after completing an intermediate base area above the support of the lower rail of its major uptrend channel, Eldorado broke higher to commence its next major upleg.

If it ascends to the upper boundary of this channel again, considered very possible, it will result in worthwhile gains from here.

Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI:NYSE; GFI:JSE)

Gold Fields is looking really strong here. Last week it broke out of the corrective downtrend that was notably shallow compared to the powerful upleg that preceded it, so the larger uptrend appears to be accelerating.

This is bullish and means that the next upleg now starting is likely to be big too.

Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HMY:NYSE; HAR:JSE)

Harmony presents an especially pleasing picture of a fine and orderly uptrend with the next major upleg just getting started. The one disharmonious aspect is the weak Accumulation line up to now.

However, given the favorable look of the charts for other stocks, it should move up with them, and ideally, the Accumulation line improves when it does.

IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG:TSX; IAG:NYSE)

Even though IAMGOLD made new highs in May, all of the action from the January peak looks like a running or upsloping correction to the powerful runup from late September through late January that saw the stock almost triple in value.

Such upsloping corrections are very bullish, and given the now favorable outlook for the sector, it means that another really powerful upleg is probably in the works that is believed to have just started.

Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE)

Old Warhorse Kinross is looking pretty good here. The correction from early May to the steep recovery runup from the March lows has been shallow, and the price has already broken clear of it to start the next upleg.

This upleg should take it up the top of the large channel shown and possibly higher.

Newmont Corp. (NEM:NYSE)

Newmont has underperformed the sector in recent months, and its larger trend remains neutral at this point, although it should continue to rally with the sector.

However, on opportunity cost grounds, it is considered best to avoid it in favor of the many gold stocks with more robust charts.

New Gold Inc. (NGD:TSX; NGD:NYSE.MKT)

New Gold is looking good here. Its robust breakout from its corrective downtrend channel last week took it well clear of this channel, and it is now on course to run at the top of the large uptrend channel shown, which will result in good gains from the current price.

Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX)

Royal Gold is one of the two large gold stocks that we went for a couple of weeks ago (three if you include Augusta Gold), the other being Victoria Gold which is not included here because it’s not a constituent of the HUI index.

Royal Gold makes quite big percentage gains in a relatively short space of time when it’s in the mood, and it looks like it’s in the mood now, having broken out of the corrective downtrend to begin a major upleg that should see it run to the upper boundary of the large uptrend channel shown.

With reference to the title given to this article that includes the phrase “happy days are here again,” some of you may be in the mood to celebrate, and you can join in by following this link to the original song “Happy Days Are Here Again,” although it is doubtful if even some clivemaund.com subscribers are old enough to remember when it was first aired.

Posted on CliveMaund.com at 3.38 pm EDT on July 16, 2023.

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Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. and Barrick Gold Corp.
  2. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  3.  This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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CliveMaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Metals Opinions
23 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (27,594 contracts) with Silver (23,570 contracts), Platinum (7,949 contracts) and Copper (7,607 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-78 contracts) and Steel (-169 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-18-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
Gold482,10428193,34862-213,7154120,36731
Copper216,86256-3,55028-1,054714,60448
Silver146,8633643,86281-55,9832612,12134
Platinum65,8345415,73652-19,674533,93821
Palladium16,017100-8,35008,837100-48712

 

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (81 percent) and Steel (72 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (62.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (50.0 percent)
Silver (80.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (47.2 percent)
Copper (27.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.2 percent)
Platinum (51.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (33.6 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.6 percent)
Steel (72.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.6 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (32 percent) and Copper (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.  is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-20 percent) and Palladium (-14 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (7.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-1.6 percent)
Silver (31.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-1.2 percent)
Copper (19.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.2 percent)
Platinum (-20.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-36.0 percent)
Palladium (-14.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-18.4 percent)
Steel (6.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (14.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 193,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 27,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,754 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.724.09.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.668.35.3
– Net Position:193,348-213,71520,367
– Gross Longs:263,740115,49845,784
– Gross Shorts:70,392329,21325,417
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.241.431.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.8-6.0-5.5

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 43,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 23,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,292 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.026.416.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.264.58.5
– Net Position:43,862-55,98312,121
– Gross Longs:76,42038,71024,540
– Gross Shorts:32,55894,69312,419
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.826.133.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.9-26.5-2.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.041.38.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.741.86.0
– Net Position:-3,550-1,0544,604
– Gross Longs:67,32189,48817,684
– Gross Shorts:70,87190,54213,080
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.870.847.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.4-21.220.6

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.126.210.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.256.14.9
– Net Position:15,736-19,6743,938
– Gross Longs:38,25617,2547,148
– Gross Shorts:22,52036,9283,210
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.952.820.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.518.8-2.6

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.361.48.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:75.56.311.8
– Net Position:-8,3508,837-487
– Gross Longs:3,7389,8401,398
– Gross Shorts:12,0881,0031,885
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 19.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.012.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.512.46.2

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -201 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.074.21.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.573.60.8
– Net Position:-370160210
– Gross Longs:4,35517,966411
– Gross Shorts:4,72517,806201
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.127.547.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.8-7.112.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
15 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (2,657 contracts) with Silver (2,302 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-382 contracts), Platinum (-280 contracts), Copper (-2,395 contracts) and Steel (-71 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-11-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
Gold483,17028165,75450-187,7495121,99535
Copper197,78541-11,157217,915783,24239
Silver120,282620,29247-31,6495611,35729
Platinum71,007727,78734-13,912656,12550
Palladium15,772100-8,27208,765100-49312

 

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (73 percent) and Gold (50 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (21 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (50.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (48.9 percent)
Silver (47.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (43.9 percent)
Copper (21.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (23.3 percent)
Platinum (33.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (34.2 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.2 percent)
Steel (72.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.8 percent)

Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (21 percent) and Steel (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Palladium (-18 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-36 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.0 percent)
Silver (-1.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-5.7 percent)
Copper (21.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (18.2 percent)
Platinum (-36.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-44.8 percent)
Palladium (-18.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-21.7 percent)
Steel (14.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (15.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 165,754 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.823.89.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.562.65.1
– Net Position:165,754-187,74921,995
– Gross Longs:240,546114,79046,618
– Gross Shorts:74,792302,53924,623
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.051.535.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.60.93.3

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,292 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.731.819.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.858.19.9
– Net Position:20,292-31,64911,357
– Gross Longs:51,30538,23823,304
– Gross Shorts:31,01369,88711,947
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.255.529.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.23.5-11.5

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.043.78.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.739.77.1
– Net Position:-11,1577,9153,242
– Gross Longs:59,38986,46617,338
– Gross Shorts:70,54678,55114,096
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.278.238.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.2-21.811.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,787 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.327.213.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.446.84.6
– Net Position:7,787-13,9126,125
– Gross Longs:38,59019,2949,369
– Gross Shorts:30,80333,2063,244
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.6 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.664.750.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.029.120.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.762.39.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:75.16.812.8
– Net Position:-8,2728,765-493
– Gross Longs:3,5759,8311,519
– Gross Shorts:11,8471,0662,012
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 19.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.012.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.517.4-4.3

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -71 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.375.31.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.275.10.8
– Net Position:-20146155
– Gross Longs:4,12417,946347
– Gross Shorts:4,32517,900192
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.627.140.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.8-15.634.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
14 Jul

Goodbye Dollar, Hello Gold

Source: Clive Maund  (7/13/23) 

Technical Analyst Clive Maund takes a look at the jump in the price of gold and the decline of the dollar.

Gold silver and precious metal (PM) stocks staged a major breakout yesterday as the dollar cratered to signal the onset of a major devaluation as its loss of reserve currency status becomes a physical reality. The BRICS are set to introduce an alternative CBDC related gold backed currency of their own that should drive the last nail into the dollar’s coffin. This has been “in the works” for quite a while and this being so it only is surprising that it has taken the dollar this long to break down. We saw all this coming a couple of weeks ago in the article PM SECTOR update – REVERSING TO UPSIDE and the two larger gold stocks featured in the article, Royal Gold and Victoria Gold have soared.

Anyway, the point is that the PM sector – and commodities generally – are embarking on a long and powerful upleg that is still in its earliest stages and this being so you can basically put on a blindfold and throw darts at a list of PM stocks and pick winners although of course we will strive to do somewhat better than that.

Now we will proceed to look at a range of charts showing the dollar breakdown and the PM sector breakouts yesterday that I am confident will “make your day” if you are long the PM sector…

We’ll start with the dollar which is of course the cause of the PM sector breakouts yesterday. The dollar cratered yesterday with a breathtaking 1.2% drop in the dollar index which broke it down from the bear Pennant it has been stuck in since late January.…


Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar, in common with many other currencies, broke higher against the US dollar yesterday, although as we can see, it had already started to break higher against the US dollar by the middle of last month. The Canadian economy is much more resource-based than the US and advancing metals prices should have a beneficial effect. Investors in Canadian mining stocks can therefore expect an additional benefit from relative currency appreciation, relative because all currencies are depreciating in real terms, if not against each other…


On gold’s 1-year chart we can see a quite lovely breakout yesterday from the corrective bullish Falling Wedge that brought it back to an important buy spot at the lower boundary of its larger uptrend channel and as we can clearly see, there is ample upside back up to the top of this channel – and there is nothing to say that, given the enormity of what is going on in the world, that it won’t in due course proceed to accelerate out of the top of this channel…


Silver had a big breakout yesterday too and although its uptrend is not yet as strong as gold’s as its larger uptrend channel is converging, it will probably proceed to rectify this in time by busting out of the top of this channel…


The chart for GDX (PM stocks) not surpringly looks very similar to gold and we can expect a robust by the sector as gold advances. Don’t worry about it having risen a lot yesterday – this chart shows that it has much further to go.


The chart for the Canadian dollar looks strong too, like it is breaking out upside from a long period of consolidation. Its chart will be added to this article later today, so look out for that.

Incidentally there are a string of big white candles in James Turk’s GoldMoney’s chart (XAU.TSX) over the past week, suggesting that investors of piling into physical gold.


Amongst stocks looking good this morning that we will be looking at ASAP are Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd. (SM:TSX.V) that has positive news out this morning and Spey Resources Corp. (SPEY:CSE; SPEYF:OTC; 2JS:FRA) is at a very good entry point too. Away from the PM sector Muscle Maker Inc. (GRIL:NASDAQ) put in a reversal candle at strong support yesterday and looks set to advance.

Posted at 9.30 am EDT on 13th July 23 on CliveMaund.com.

Important Disclosures:

  1. Sierra Madre is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
  2.  Spey Resources and Muscle Maker have a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  3. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Spey Resources and Muscle Maker.
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Metals Opinions
13 Jul

Platinum’s May-June Selloff: When the “Fundamental” Chips Fall

In May, a “record supply deficit” should’ve sent platinum prices soaring. So much for the best laid “fundamental” plans.

By Elliott Wave International

If I had a nickel for every time someone asked me what value “fundamentals” serve in navigating financial markets, well… let’s just say I could’ve retired to the Poconos years ago.

And the short answer I give to this question hasn’t changed in 18 years; namely, none.

This can be hard to accept, considering how fundamental “fundamental” market analysis is for mainstream finance. Pick the equivalent “Wall Street” of the country you live in, ask any pundit on that particular “street,” and they’ll insist the main driver of market trends is the news circulating outside those markets. That includes anything from weather patterns, political unrest, earnings reports, and so on.

But the reason I and we as Elliott wave analysts take such a radical stance against the value of “fundamentals” is simple: These news events don’t occur in a vacuum. They’re filtered through the lens of human beings, and very rarely do those humans see eye-to-eye on what a certain event means for a market’s future.

Or whenever there is a consensus on how a certain event will affect prices, the market goes ahead and does the exact opposite of that consensus.

When you start paying attention to this pattern of markets ignoring the news that’s supposed to move them, you can’t un-see it.

What we as Elliott wave analysts do see, however, is that market trends are driven by investor psychology, which unfolds as measurable wave patterns directly on price charts.

A recent example of this comes from platinum. In May, the industrial metal used in everything from catalytic converters to AI medical technology made the front page of major news outlets from The New York Times to Fortune Magazine.

The word “platinum” was practically clickbait, after the Biden administration floated a long-held and longshot Hail Mary idea for the U.S. Treasury to mint a $1 trillion platinum coin to avert the crashing of the debt ceiling.

At the same time on the investment front, platinum bulls were handed the big blue whale of supportive “fundamentals” — not just low supply numbers amidst rising demand, but the lowest supply data on record care of rolling power outages in South Africa, the world’s largest supplier of mined platinum.

The white metal seemed to be prime for a red-hot rally. Wrote Reuters on May 2: “Platinum prices surge as speculators bet supply will run short… We think this is the first year of serial deficits in the platinum market.”

On May 16, Bullion Vault added: “Platinum Investment to Support $1000 Price on ‘Record Deficit.'”

“Fundamental” signs pointed in a straight line going up. Elliott wave signs, however, aimed to help investors and traders manage the risk of participating in the metal’s action.

On May 11, our Metals Pro Service showed this Elliott wave labeled price chart of platinum. There, our primary count was bullish, and called for “a new high.” But that wasn’t the end of our analysis. We then explained the exact steps price must take to confirm an uptrend. From Metals Pro Service:

“You would think it would’ve given us a new high, and yet price has fallen back to the low it achieved just hours ago. I’m going to stay bullish above the .382 retracement level. I’m not eager to call a top, but if it goes under the .382 retracement level of 1150, then the risk begins to become that a top is in place. I am inclined to call it a truncated fifth wave of wave 1 up.

The next day on May 12, platinum accelerated down, confirming that a truncated fifth wave top was in place. Metals Pro Service showed its newly updated chart and said:

“The outlook is bearish while price holds under its 0.382 retracement level. The farther price falls, the more likely it is that wave (a) of ii (circled) is underway.

And from there, platinum continued falling to a 4-month low on June 23.

Metals trading, as all markets, carries risk. And not all Elliott wave interpretations turn out to be accurate. But like this example shows, Elliott analysis does identify critical price levels to help manage the inherent risk.

“Fundamental” analysis can’t say the same.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Platinum’s May-June Selloff: When the “Fundamental” Chips Fall. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Metals
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