Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 237

The Fed may start reducing the QE program next month

by JustForex

US stock indices closed without a single trend yesterday. The Dow Jones increased by 0.31%, the S&P 500 added 0.26%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.2%. Tesla shares lost 4.3% after the US National Highway Traffic Safety began an inspection of Tesla’s Autopilot system after a series of crashes involving the company’s electric cars. Shares of Chinese electric carmaker NIO decreased by 5.9% after the death of the driver of an electric car with the autonomous driving system. According to a survey, the majority of investment banks believe that the Federal Reserve will announce a reduction in the QE program at the meeting on September 22. In this case, the reduction of stimulus will begin on December 1, 2021, and will be completed by August 1, 2022, after which the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% at the beginning of 2023. Usually, a massive sale of assets is observed in the financial markets after the announcement of the QE program reduction.

European stock indices fell yesterday. The Stoxx Europe 600 composite index lost 0.5%, British FTSE 100 dropped by 0.9%, German DAX decreased by 0.3%, French CAC 40, Spanish IBEX 35, and Italian FTSE MIB lost 0.8% each. Before that day, the European markets had been rising for ten trading sessions in a row. The reason for the decrease is the investors’ concern with the global spread of a new strain of coronavirus. The German government announced its intention to sell a quarter of its 20% stake in Germany’s largest air carrier Deutsche Lufthansa. As a result, the company’s shares have decreased by 3.9%. Shares of French auto components maker Faurecia (+12%) were the leaders among Stoxx Europe 600 components.

Yesterday, the US Treasury Department held an auction on Treasury bonds, which led to a liquidity withdrawal from the banking system and a drop in government bond yields. Gold and silver have an inverse correlation to US government bond yields, so prices of the precious metals have strengthened slightly. Gold added 0.6% and silver increased by 0.39%.

Oil prices stabilized a bit. Gasoline consumption declined for the third week in a row in the US. At the same time, gasoline demand in India remained above pre-pandemic levels in the first half of August. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe the threat of the Delta strain to the oil market is temporary and stick to their forecast of Brent prices rising to $80 a barrel in the next quarter due to a supply shortage in the market.

Asian stock indices are still under pressure. Asia-Pacific’s broadest stock index outside Japan, the MSCI, decreased by 1.1%, China’s CSI300 blue-chip index lost 1.11%, and the Shanghai Composite index decreased by 1.05%. Australia’s ASX 200 index fell by 0.98%, and Japan’s Nikkei index lost 0.11%. The drop in stock indices was mainly due to the worsening situation with Delta in the region. Markets also monitored the situation in Afghanistan. The Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to review its quantitative easing program, considering the economic conditions and the quarantine restrictions.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,479.71 +11.71 (+0.26%)

Dow Jones 35,625.40 +110.02 (+0.31%)

DAX 15,925.73 -51.71 (-0.32%)

FTSE 100 7,153.98 -64.73 (-0.90%)

USD Index 92.61 +0.10 (+0.10%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell’s Speech at 20:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Trade of the Week: NZD sinks on single covid case. Can the kiwi recover?

富拓市场分析师Han Tan

By Han Tan Chief Market Analyst at Exinity Group

Entering this trading week, the New Zealand dollar had a roaring start to August, being the best-performing G10 currency against the US Dollar so far this month.

As of Monday, the NZD had also strengthened against all of its G10 peers on a month-to-date basis.

 

Then, one Covid case was detected in New Zealand.

Such is the impact from the island nation’s first community case since February that it forced a three-day lockdown across New Zealand. Today’s shock announcement was all it took to undo a lot of the month-to-date gains that the kiwi had against several of its G10 peers, especially currencies deemed as safe havens such as the Japanese Yen, US dollar, and the Swiss Franc.

The New Zealand dollar is the worst-performing G10 currency against the US dollar today, and has also weakened against all major Asian and EM currencies.

The NZD index also tanked below its 50-day simple moving average, giving the decline on 23 March a run for its money as the largest single-day drop so far this year.

Note that this index measures the NZD’s performance across six currency pairs, all in equal weights:

 

That solitary infection now undermines the optimism that had lifted the New Zealand dollar.

For context, the country’s economic reopening had been chugging along, so much so that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand appears ready to hike its benchmark cash rate this week (policy decision due Wednesday, 18 August). After all, there were enough signs pointing to an imminent rate hike:

  • New Zealand’s unemployment rate fell to 4% in 2Q 2021, matching the same pre-pandemic figure in 4Q 2019.
  • Private sector wages (excluding overtime pay) rose by 0.9% last quarter, which was its biggest spike in 13 years.
  • The consumer price index has broken above the central bank’s 1-3% target range (3.3% in 2Q).

In short, the economic conditions had ripened enough for a rate hike. In fact, markets had been forecasting two rate hikes by the end of the year.

(Note: central banks tend to raise benchmark rates to prevent the economy from overheating and rein in prices paid by consumers from rising too fast).

Downside risks from delta (if confirmed)

But that single case now presents some serious downside risks for the economy, the RBNZ’s policy outlook, and for the New Zealand dollar.

This would be especially the case if it’s confirmed to be the Delta variant and the lockdowns are extended beyond this week, while taking into account the nation’s slow vaccine rollout. The country has only administered enough vaccines for less than 30% of its population, which is lower than the vaccination rates in the UK (66%), US (56%) and even neighboring Australia (30%). One just has to look up north past the Tasman Sea to assess how the Delta variant is wreaking havoc on Australia’s attempts to reopen its economy.

If the NZ lockdowns are extended and negatively impacts the economic recovery, that might end up also delaying the RBNZ’s plans to hike rates.

Such a scenario should translate into more downward pressure for the New Zealand dollar, perhaps enough to embolden kiwi bears into setting their sights on the current year-to-date low for NZDUSD around the 0.688 mark.

 

Can the NZD recover?

Tuesday’s tumble could yet prove to be a knee-jerk reaction and the kiwi could unwind today’s declines. Here’s what it would take.

  • The RBNZ has to sound very hawkish (suggesting more rate hikes are coming) and downplay the downside risks from this latest lockdown. An OCR hike on Wednesday may not be enough to cause the NZD to unwind most of Tuesday’s drop.
  • Alternatively, government officials have to dispel the uncertainties surrounding the duration of this lockdown, assuring that it would indeed be just “short and hard”.

Such an all-clear, either by the central bank or from the Ardern administration over the immediate term, could then help the NZD pare recent losses.

 

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Virus Caution Dents Risk Appetite

Lukman Otunuga

By Lukman Otunuga Senior Research Analyst, ForexTime

A sense of caution washed over Asian markets on Tuesday as unease over the spread of the Delta variant and concerns around the strength of China’s recovery drained risk sentiment. The dollar has edged higher while gold prices have firmed as Treasury yields drifted lower. A just-announced new lockdown in New Zealand has slammed the kiwi after a single case of Covid-19 was found in Auckland. This comes ahead of the RBNZ who were expected to raise interest rates at its meeting tomorrow.

European stocks have opened slightly lower this morning amid the Delta fears and geopolitical tensions in Afghanistan. Despite closing at record highs overnight, US stocks could come under pressure today if the risk-off mood accelerates the flight to safety.

All in all, the next few hours promise to be eventful for financial markets as investors juggle key economic data from major economies, the continued rise of the Delta variant and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

US Retail Sales & Powell in focus

The dollar continues to nurse the deep wounds inflicted by last Friday’s dismal consumer sentiment report. It has kicked off Tuesday on a firm note, appreciating against all G10 currencies this morning ahead of the retail sales data and Jerome Powell’s speech.

US retail sales for July are expected to drop -0.3% month-over-month compared to the 0.6% gain witnessed in June. Given how consumer spending accounts for a handsome chunk of the US economy, the data is significant and could influence Fed taper expectations. In regards to Powell’s speech, any fresh insight offered on the Fed’s future course of action or hints about tapering could result in dollar volatility. Nevertheless, investors will continue to look towards the Jackson Hole symposium in late August for clues to the central bank’s next move.

Currency spotlight – GBPUSD

The British Pound has woken up on the wrong side of the bed this morning despite the better-than-expected UK jobs data.

According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the unemployment rate in the UK fell to 4.7% in June beating market expectations of 4.8%. The number of people in work rose by 95,000 in the three months to June, stronger than the 75,000 market forecast. Average wages also beat expectations, rising 7.4% compared with the 6.6% in the previous month while wages including bonuses hit 8.8%, above the 8.6% estimate and higher than the upward revised figure of 7.4% in May.

Despite this strong report, the GBPUSD is under pressure on the daily charts with prices approaching the 200-day Simple Moving Average.

As the broader risk-off mood encourages investors to seek safety in destinations like the dollar, this could drag GBPUSD lower. A daily close below 1.3750 could signal a decline towards 1.3640 and lower.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold staged a stunning rebound last week as the combination of dollar weakness and Delta variant fears injected gold bugs with a renewed sense of confidence. The precious metal has entered the week with a spring in its step amid the risk-off mood with prices trading back above $1792 as of writing. A strong daily close above this point could open the doors towards $1800 and $1830. Alternatively, should $1792 prove to be reliable resistance, a decline back towards $1760 could be on the cards.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Intraday Market Analysis – Dax Sees Bullish Acceleration

By Orbex

GER 30 rises along trendline

DAX

The Dax 30 soared to a new all-time high backed by a strong earnings season.

The rally is in full swing after a break above the previous peak at 15810. The index is climbing along a rising trendline since late July. The price has gone vertical and suggests an acceleration in the bullish momentum.

A repeatedly overbought RSI indicates an overextension. A limited pullback would help the bulls catch their breath.

15850 on the trendline is a key support should this happen. Then a rebound would lift the index to 16100.

USDJPY seeks support

USDJPY

The Japanese yen strengthens on upbeat GDP growth in Q2.

The pair is looking for support after a close above the daily resistance at 110.60. This is an indication that the medium-term rally may resume.

A pullback is necessary however after the RSI showed exhaustion. Analysts can expect buying interest at the psychological level of 109.00. An oversold RSI would make this a congestion area and prompt the bulls to buy the dip.

109.70 is a fresh resistance ahead. A bullish breakout would lead to 110.50.

XAGUSD bounces above resistance

XAGUSD

Silver claws back losses as US Treasury yields remain flat on mixed US data.

Price action has so far found support above the psychological level of 23.00.

The RSI has risen back to the neutral area as traders bought the dip in an attempt to reverse course. However, the bearish mood would prevail as long as the metal stays under 24.35, the last leg of sell-off.

A rebound may meet strong selling interest from trend followers. A fall below the said support would send the price to November’s low at 22.00.

By Orbex

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 16.08.2021(EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1787; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.1805 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1695. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the resistance level. However, the bearish scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1820. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1905. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the bullish channel’s downside border and fix below 1.1750.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is trading at 1.3845; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.3865 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.3695. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.3940. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.4025. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the bullish channel’s downside border and fix below 1.3805.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is trading at 1773.00; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1760.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1825.00. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1720.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1685.00. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the descending channel’s upside border and fix above 1795.00.

XAUUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 16.08.2021

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending wave at 1.1755 and breaking this level to the upside, EURUSD is expected to continue the correction towards 1.1800; right now, it is consolidating around the latter level. Possibly, today the pair may break this range to the downside to return to 1.1755 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 1.1780, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume falling with the target at 1.1700; if to the upside – continue the correction towards 1.1827 and then form a new descending structure to reach the above-mentioned target.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 1.3790 and completing the ascending wave at 1.3870, GBPUSD is trading downwards. Today, the pair may reach 1.3833 and then start another growth to reach 1.3890. Later, the market may form a new descending wave with the target at 1.3780.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still consolidating around 73.33. Today, the pair may fall to break the downside border of the range at 73.10 and then continue falling with the target at 72.72.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After completing the descending wave at 109.45, USDJPY is consolidating around this level. Possibly, the pair may break the range to the downside and continue falling within the downtrend with the first target at 108.11. On the other hand, the price may break the range to the upside and correct to test 110.00 from below. Later, the market may form a new descending structure to reach the above-mentioned target.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After completing the correction at 0.9150, USDCHF is expected to start another growth towards 0.9191 and then fall to reach 0.9170, thus forming a new consolidation range between the two latter levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume growing with the target at 0.9250; if to the downside – start a new decline towards 0.9145 and then form one more ascending structure to reach the above-mentioned target.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is falling towards 0.7324. Possibly, the pair may break this level and then continue trading within the downtrend with the short-term target at 0.7272.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent has completed the correction at 69.69. Today, the asset is expected to consolidate around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume growing with the target at 71.00; if to the downside – start a new decline towards 68.10.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending wave at 1781.48, Gold is falling towards 1750.30 and may later grow to reach 1767.00, thus forming a new consolidation range between the two latter levels. If the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 1830.00; if to the downside – start a new decline towards 1717.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

The S&P index is consolidating around 4462.0 If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 4440.9; if to the upside – start another growth towards 4483.0.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.08.16

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1729
  • Prev Close: 1.1795
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.56%

The EUR/USD currency pair increased by 0.56% amid a decline in the dollar index. This week the Eurozone will report on inflation, which data will help forecast the future of the ECB policy. At the moment, the ECB is not going to change its monetary policy.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1754, 1.1706, 1.1609
  • Resistance levels: 1.1799, 1.1817, 1.1854, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From a technical point of view, the general trend on the EUR/USD currency pair is bearish. On Friday, the price rebounded from the daily support level and started to form a corrective upward movement. The MACD indicator has become positive, and there are no signs of a reversal yet. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for the sell deals from the resistance levels after sellers show initiative. Buy trades can be considered only from the support levels within the local upward movement.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.1854 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3805
  • Prev Close: 1.3863
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.42%

The British pound historically correlates with BRENT crude oil prices, which declined on Friday. But the British pound increased by 0.42%. Therefore, the main reason for the growth was the decrease of the dollar index, but not the strengthening of the pound sterling.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3802, 1.3772, 1.3714, 1.3676 ,1.3641, 1.3614, 1.3525
  • Resistance levels: 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101

The trend of the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish on the hourly time frame. The price rebounded from the support level, where buyers demonstrated the reaction. The MACD indicator has become positive again. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for the buy trades from the zone where the buyers show initiative. Sell positions can be considered from the resistance levels and only on intraday time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.3714 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario is likely to resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 110.35
  • Prev Close: 109.59
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.69%

The world’s third-largest economy increased by 1.3% on a year-on-year basis. In Japan, industrial production increased by 0.3% over the last month. But the recovery is much weaker than with other advanced economies. Many analysts expect the growth to remain modest this quarter as the imposition of a state of emergency to combat a spike in infection will negatively impact business activity.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 109.43, 109.19, 108.65
  • Resistance levels: 110.04, 110.34, 110.66, 110.95, 111.48

The main trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. But the price sharply fell below the moving average on Friday and is close to breakthrough the priority change level. The MACD indicator became negative, with no signs of a reversal. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy positions from the support level near the priority change level. Sell positions should be considered only on the lower time frames from the zone where the sellers show initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.19, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2021.08.16:
  • – Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2521
  • Prev Close: 1.2512
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.07%

The Canadian dollar is highly dependent on the performance of the dollar index and oil price performance. Both the dollar index and oil declined on Friday. As a result, the price of USD/CAD remained in a narrow price range.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2518, 1.2471, 1.2425, 1.2370, 1.2312
  • Resistance levels: 1.2554, 1.2602, 1.2671, 1.2787, 1.2951

Considering technical analysis, the USD/CAD trend is bearish. The price is trading near the moving average, and the MACD indicator has crossed the zero line and is growing, indicating buyers’ pressure. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for the sell positions from the resistance levels. Buy positions should be considered from the support levels on intraday timeframes within the local upward movement.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2671 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

British Pound Slowly Plunging

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Early in another August week, the British Pound is slowly falling against the USD. GBPUSD remains under pressure within the mid-term downtrend and is mostly trading at 1.3847.

The GDP statistics for the second quarter of 2021 published by the United Kingdom were pretty much as expected, so market players switched their attention to local events. We remind you that the British economy expanded by 4.8% q/q in April-June after losing 1.6% q/q in the first quarter. As one can see, the economy is recovering and the positive report surprised no one and didn’t become a trigger for long-term confidence.

Right now, the Pound is pressured by the USD strength. Investors are pretty sure that the US Federal Reserve System will reduce its QE program sooner than expected due to strong numbers. It’s a great support to the “greenback”, which puts serious pressure on other traded currencies.

As we can see in the H4 chart, after rebounding from 1.3990, GBP/USD is correcting with the target at 1.3781; it has already completed the descending structure at 1.3790 and is currently growing towards 1.3875. Later, the market may fall towards the above-mentioned target and then complete the correction by reaching 1.4000. After that, the instrument may resume trading within the downtrend towards 1.3750. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is rising towards 0, a breakout of which may boost the price chart growth. On the other hand, if the line rebounds from 0, it will resume falling towards the lows and the price chart will update its lows as well.

In the H1 chart, GBP/USD is correcting downwards. Possibly, the pair may form a new descending structure towards 1.3832. After that, the instrument may grow to reach 1.3875 and then fall to return to 1.3832. In fact, the asset is expected to consolidate around 1.3832. If the price breaks the range to the downside, the market may resume falling within the downtrend with the target at 1.3750; if to the upside – extend the ascending wave up to 1.4000. After reaching 1.4000, the pair may form a reversal pattern and start a new decline. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is trading to rebound from 20 to the upside and grow towards 50, a breakout of which may lead to further growth to reach 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

COT Currency Futures Charts: Japanese Yen, Euro, US Dollar, Pound, Swiss Franc, Peso, Bitcoin

By CountingPips.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 10 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT Chart
The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:79.72.515.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.955.64.9
– Net Position:19,326-23,9984,672
– Gross Longs:35,9751,1146,862
– Gross Shorts:16,64925,1122,190
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.0 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.134.780.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.1-32.4-3.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 33,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.355.413.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.565.48.0
– Net Position:33,857-70,05936,202
– Gross Longs:212,809388,86692,351
– Gross Shorts:178,952458,92556,149
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.455.941.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.418.8-19.7

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.056.916.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.162.115.5
– Net Position:7,070-9,2632,193
– Gross Longs:44,750101,83529,887
– Gross Shorts:37,680111,09827,694
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.124.260.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.711.9-19.5

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -60,657 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,467 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,190 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.873.68.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.233.219.3
– Net Position:-60,65783,261-22,604
– Gross Longs:36,684151,72017,266
– Gross Shorts:97,34168,45939,870
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.2 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.974.013.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.6-4.0-1.5

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 9,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.037.820.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.633.645.8
– Net Position:9,6781,926-11,604
– Gross Longs:18,53717,0899,092
– Gross Shorts:8,85915,16320,696
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 11.1 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.432.629.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.25.8-11.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,465 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.550.022.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.762.913.0
– Net Position:6,465-22,17115,706
– Gross Longs:45,44585,80838,066
– Gross Shorts:38,980107,97922,360
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.437.870.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.830.4-14.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -49,313 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,030 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.454.810.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.117.418.7
– Net Position:-49,31364,248-14,935
– Gross Longs:57,32394,10917,148
– Gross Shorts:106,63629,86132,083
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 13.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.775.124.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-35.240.3-36.2

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -707 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -325 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.046.08.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.342.79.2
– Net Position:-1,0321,544-512
– Gross Longs:17,29521,4863,769
– Gross Shorts:18,32719,9424,281
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.532.847.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.08.4-14.5

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.849.14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.435.12.4
– Net Position:-23,88721,2952,592
– Gross Longs:69,81874,8706,248
– Gross Shorts:93,70553,5753,656
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.896.754.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.23.1-8.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,906 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:73.317.09.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.879.84.4
– Net Position:20,538-22,4121,874
– Gross Longs:26,1626,0743,429
– Gross Shorts:5,62428,4861,555
– Long to Short Ratio:4.7 to 10.2 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.13.589.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.11.1-10.5

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 10,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,779 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.554.35.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.876.62.6
– Net Position:10,702-12,1211,419
– Gross Longs:22,01829,5342,808
– Gross Shorts:11,31641,6551,389
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.757.883.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.90.2-13.9

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.54.226.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:80.82.911.2
– Net Position:-1,104881,016
– Gross Longs:4,3682861,774
– Gross Shorts:5,472198758
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.940.623.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.8-50.37.1

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Japanese Candlestick Analysis for 13.08.2021 (GOLD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After falling, the pair is now recovering. At the support level, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, including a Doji and an Engulfing. Going by the patterns, the pair might resume growing, aiming at the resistance level of 1790.00. However, the quotations might pull back to 1720.00 before growing on.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, testing the lower border of the channel, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, including an Inverted Hammer. Going by the signals, the pair might bounce off the support level. The aim of the growth might be at the resistance level of 0.7070. Upon testing it, the pair might break it away and go on growing. However, the quotations might pull back to 0.6965 before growing.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On H4, GBPUSD is winding up a correctional wave. At the support level, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, including a Harami. Going by the patterns, the pair might start growing towards the resistance level. The aim of growth is 1.3910. Upon testing it, the pair might break it away and go on growing. However, the quotations might decline to the next support level of 1.3755 before growing on.

GBPUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.