InvestMacro

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 1.1710, EURUSD is consolidating around this level. Possibly, today the pair may reach 1.1690 and then form one more ascending structure towards 1.1800. Later, the market may fall to break 1.1650 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 1.1600.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending wave at 1.3733, GBPUSD is consolidating. Today, the pair may fall towards 1.3700 and then grow to reach 1.3807, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume falling with the target at 1.3650; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure towards 1.4000 and then start a new decline to reach the above-mentioned target.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still consolidating around 73.33. Possibly, the pair may correct and expand the range up to 73.63 to test it from below. Later, the market may resume trading downwards to break 73.00 and then continue falling with the target at 72.00.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After forming a new consolidation range around 109.50 and breaking it to the upside, USDJPY is expected to choose an alternative scenario and correct towards 109.90. At the same time, the main scenario implies a further downtrend with the first target at 108.00.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After completing the ascending wave at 0.9151 and rebounding from this level, USDCHF is trading downwards to reach 0.9100. After breaking this level, the instrument may continue falling to reach 0.9070 and then start a new growth to test 0.9100 from below.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending structure at 0.7290 and forming a downside continuation pattern, AUDUSD has reached the short-term target at 0.7237. Possibly, today the pair may return to 0.7290 to test it from below and then resume trading within the downtrend with the target at 0.7200.

BRENT

After failing to break 70.00 to the upside, Brent is consolidating in the centre of the range at 69.30. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume falling to reach 68.00 or even continue trading downwards to complete this descending wave at 67.00. After that, the instrument may form a reversal pattern to start a new growth with the target at 72.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still forming the second ascending impulse. Possibly, the metal may reach 1817.00 and then correct to test 1768.15 from above. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure with the first target at 1868.25.

S&P 500

After finishing the descending impulse at 4417.7, the S&P index is correcting towards 4454.1. Possibly, the asset may rebound from the latter level and resume falling to reach 4436.0, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 4384.8; if to the upside – start another growth towards 4480.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Orbex

NZDUSD’s structure looks set to complete yet another leg down to finalize a double zigzag pattern.

The complex structure began at $0.7766 high on February ’21. Since then it formed a correction that could end closer to the 0.618% extension of waves WX near $0.6812.

With the current drop resembling a multi-structural move to the downside, prices might consolidate for a while. Once the internal correction ends, we can expect the pair to fall to lower territories. There a fresh low will likely offer a great reversal opportunity.

Should we receive an impulsive move instead of consolidation over the next few trading sessions, the probabilities of a premature reversal will increase.

In such a scenario, the Y leg from ~$0.73 would be an ending diagonal of the open variation.

With a fresh low already in, traders can expect the swing low at wave (a) to break to somewhat validate the bullish case.

If prices remain below the said swing low, probabilities will remain increased towards the main scenario.

By Orbex

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1777
• Prev Close: 1.1708
• % chg. over the last day: -0.60%

Eurozone GDP increased in the 2nd quarter. Economists believe that the Eurozone GDP will continue its growth in Q3 despite the outbreak of the Delta strain. However, the situation is different for the European currency as the euro is inversely correlated to the dollar index. Europe will report on inflation today. Analysts tend to believe that inflation in the eurozone will rise from 1.9% to 2.2% on a year-on-year basis.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1706, 1.1609
• Resistance levels: 1.1754, 1.1799, 1.1817, 1.1854, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From a technical point of view, the general trend on the EUR/USD currency pair is bearish. Yesterday, the price decreased again; the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, with no signs of a reversal. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for the sell deals from the resistance levels, where there was an initiative from the sellers. Buy trades can be considered only from the support levels and only after the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.1854 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.08.18:

• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3838
• Prev Close: 1.3737
• % chg. over the last day: -0.73%

The number of employees in British companies approached pre-pandemic levels, the number of jobs increased by 182,000 in July, and wage growth hit a record high. The unemployment rate fell from 4.8% to 4.7%. But even such macroeconomic statistics did not keep the British pound from falling yesterday. The British pound is losing its positions more and more from day to day.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3714, 1.3676 ,1.3641, 1.3614, 1.3525
• Resistance levels: 1.3802, 1.3772, 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101

The trend of the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish on the hourly time frame. But the price is close to the priority change level. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, with no signs of a reversal. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for the buy trades from the priority change level. But it is better to enter with confirmation because the sellers’ pressure is very strong.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.3714 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario is likely to resume.

News feed for 2021.08.18:

• – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 109.26
• Prev Close: 109.58
• % chg. over the last day: +0.29%

Yesterday, the USD/JPY currency pair increased by 0.29% amid a stronger dollar index and rebounded from the priority change level. Japan weakened quarantine restrictions after the Olympics ended, and people rushed to the stores, so business activity is expected to be positive in the next quarter. But general forecasts for the 3rd quarter indicated the slowdown of growth rates.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 109.43, 109.19, 108.65
• Resistance levels: 110.04, 110.34, 110.66, 110.95, 111.48

The main trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving average line and has reached the priority change level. The MACD indicator became positive, but the growth is unclear. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for the buy positions from the support level, where the buyers show initiative. Sell positions should be considered only on the lower timeframes from the resistance levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.19, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2565
• Prev Close: 1.2625
• % chg. over the last day: +0.48%

The Canadian dollar is very dependent on the performance of the dollar index and the oil price performance. Yesterday, oil was slightly decreased while the dollar index increased, which caused USD/CAD rally. Canada will report on inflation today. Analysts are confident that inflation in the country will remain at the same level.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2602,1.2554, 1.2518, 1.2471, 1.2425, 1.2370, 1.2312
• Resistance levels: 1.2642, 1.2671, 1.2787, 1.2951

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But the local trend is bullish, and the price reached the priority change level. Now the price has strongly deviated from the moving average. Under such market conditions, it is best for traders to look for the sell positions from the resistance levels after the sellers’ initiative. Buy positions should be considered from the support levels within the local upward movement throughout the day.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2671 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.

News feed for 2021.08.18:

• – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

by JustForex

US retail sales decreased by 1.1% in July, while the core retail sales index decreased by 0.4%. Both indicators did not meet economists’ expectations, but the dollar index increased by 0.54% despite that. The political instability in Afghanistan also increased the demand for US currency. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the central bank does not know how the outbreak of the Delta strain might affect the economy, so the central bank is just watching the situation. At the same time, major US stock indices decreased yesterday due to declines in the technology, financial, and consumer cyclical sectors. Dow Jones decreased by 0.79%, S&P 500 index fell 0.71%, NASDAQ index lost 0.93%. General Motors stock decreased by 2.5% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway announced it was cutting its stake in the company. Sharp declines in auto sales in July also contributed to declines in Ford and Tesla stocks.

Pfizer and BioNTech SE submitted an application to US regulators to approve a third booster dose of the vaccine, which has higher levels of neutralizing antibodies against the original virus and against Beta and Delta variants. Pharma companies are confident that revaccination within a year after the second vaccine can help keep protection from COVID-19.

European stock indices traded without a single dynamic. Investors became less optimistic about Europe’s economic growth prospects, despite GDP growth and active vaccination. The UK unemployment rate fell from 4.8% to 4.7%, and the number of employees in British companies approached pre-pandemic levels. Europe and the UK will report on the inflation rate today. This is important data that central banks consider when planning their monetary policy.

Oil demonstrates the decline for the fourth day in a row. The prospect of reducing the demand for travel and new restrictions in Asian countries continue to put pressure on quotes.

Chinese authorities continue to put pressure on the country’s IT sector. Yesterday, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) presented a new draft of rules aimed at stopping unfair competition on the Internet. In turn, the head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appealed to investors with a warning of risks related to investments in Chinese companies in the US stock exchanges. The trade war between the two countries continues. There is a possible crisis associated with delays of shipping supplies from China ahead. China’s newspaper, People’s Daily, which is considered the mouthpiece of China’s Communist Party, hints at the need to stimulate the economy. If China announces an easing of monetary policy, Asian stock indices could begin a bullish trend. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced it would keep its monetary policy unchanged, leaving the interest rate at 0.25%. Analysts had expected that New Zealand would become the first advanced economy to raise interest rates.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,448.08 -31.63 (-0.71%)

Dow Jones 35,343.28 -282.12 (-0.79%)

DAX 15,921.95 -3.78 (-0.02%)

FTSE 100 7,181.11 +27.13 (+0.38%)

USD Index 93.12 +0.50 (+0.54%)

• – New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• – New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• – New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• – New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 06:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Inventories (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

NZDUSD tests major support

The New Zealand dollar struggles as the RBNZ postpones its rate hike against expectations.

The pair had failed to push above the supply area near 0.7100 from the daily chart. The RSI’s double top was a sign of overextension.

The sell-off below the psychological level of 0.7000 and then 0.6960 indicates that sentiment has turned sour. A recovering RSI could be an opportunity to sell into strength.

A break below 0.6890 may extend the sell-off towards 0.6700. 0.7030 is the first resistance in case of a rebound.

AUDUSD falls through support

The Australian dollar fell after the RBA minutes tempered the taper optimism amid COVID-19 restrictions.

The pair has been under pressure at the 20-day moving average. The drop below 0.7290 may have resumed the downtrend after a four-week-long consolidation.

Strong bearish momentum is an indication of high turnover between buyers bailing out and sellers piling in. 0.7170 would be the next target. The key resistance at 0.7340 will likely cap a limited rebound, while the RSI climbs from the oversold area.

XAUUSD rises to key resistance

Gold extended its recovery supported by a retreat in US Treasury yields.

The price has recouped most losses from the previous sharp liquidation. A break above the intermediary resistance at 1762 has confirmed strong buying interest.

Buyers will need to close above the origin of the firesale and the psychological level of 1800 to seal the deal in their favor. Then 1830 would be the last hurdle before a full-blown reversal.

A repeatedly overbought RSI may cause a temporary pullback with 1755 as key support.

By Orbex

By Orbex

USDCHF breaks support

The US dollar tumbles as traders take profit ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.

The break above the daily resistance at 0.9230 has led to an overextension. The RSI divergence at the supply area near 0.9260 was a warning that a retracement could be in the making.

The confirmation came in in the form of a fall below 0.9190. The sell-off has then gained momentum after 0.9140 failed to secure bids.

0.9160 is now a fresh resistance. The base of the previous breakout at 0.9080 would be the next target.

USDNOK awaits breakout

The Norwegian krone weakens as oil prices struggle amid demand uncertainty.

The pair is in a pennant consolidation on the daily chart following a rally above last December’s high at 8.9000. The narrowing range is a sign of hesitation and a breakout would dictate the direction for the days to come.

8.7800 near the 30-day moving average is the closest support. A close above 8.8600 may challenge the key resistance at 8.9150, and a bullish breakout would confirm the uptrend’s continuation.

UK100 bounces off support

Commodity stocks dragged down the FTSE 100 index after weak economic data from China.

The rise above June’s peak at 7215 was a sign of commitment from the long side. However, a pullback is necessary to keep the rally sustainable.

The drop below 7175 suggests that buyers took profit when the RSI showed an overbought situation. As the RSI swings back into neutrality, between 7095 and 7120 lies the demand zone which coincides with the 20-day moving average.

A break above 7205 may resume the uptrend.

By Orbex

By Orbex

USDCAD prices have seen a short-term upside since last month’s low of $1.2415.

However, the mini-rally is likely part of a correction in wave 2 of a 5-wave impulse towards fresh multiyear lows.

The correction in wave 2 could last a little longer, given wave two corrections usually retrace at least 61.80%. This should bring the market around to the $1.2650 zone, where further guidance will reveal itself.

The medium-term structure could complete cycle wave x and reverse towards the $1.45 level in the long term. But for now, it hints at a recent completion of wave (4) of Ⓒ.

If bulls push prices past the descending channel’s upper trendline, the probabilities of bearish continuation will decrease. Contrary, an alternative scenario could happen, and that is a bullish impulse.

The impulsive scenario should receive validation on a triangle formation in wave 4.

Only a symmetrical triangle would complete the structure above wave 1, which is a requirement for 5-wave impulses.

In addition, we might receive a running flat. However, this structure would appear in the medium-term, following a break of the channel.

A bullish impulse could send prices soaring toward $1.45 as the cycle degree correction in wave x would be, in this case, complete.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, convergence on MACD prevented the asset from breaking 38.2% fibo at 1.1695; right now, it is correcting upwards. The closest target is 23.6% fibo at 1.1838, while the next ones may be 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.1920, 1.1985, and 1.2051 respectively. After that, the instrument is expected to reverse and forming a new descending wave to reach the current support, which is the low at 1.1706.

The H1 chart shows that a quick growth was followed by a local pullback, which has almost reached 50.0% fibo at 1.1764 and may later continue towards 61.8% fibo at 1.1754. After that, the asset may resume growing to reach the previous high at 1.1805.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after completing the correctional uptrend, USDJPY is forming a new mid-term wave to the downside, which is heading towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 108.20 and 107.13 respectively. The local resistance is still the high at 111.66.

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the new descending wave, which has already tested 76.0% fibo and may later continue to break the low at 108.72 and reach 38.2% fibo at 108.20. The local resistance is at 110.80.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset has formed several reversal patterns, including Harami, not far from the resistance level. At the moment, EURUSD may reverse and continue the correction. In this case, the downside target may be at 1.1740. Later, the market may rebound from the support area and resume trading upwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may grow to reach 1.1830 without testing the support area.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed several reversal patterns, such as Hammer, not far from the support area. At the moment, USDJPY is reversing and may start a new pullback towards 109.65. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may continue falling towards 108.75 without reversing and correcting.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming several reversal patterns, for example, Doji and Hammer, near the support area, EURGBP is reversing in the form of a correctional impulse. In this case, the correctional target may be at 0.8545. Later, the market may rebound from the resistance level and resume its descending tendency. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may continue falling towards 0.8460 without testing the resistance level.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1793
• Prev Close: 1.1775
• % chg. over the last day: -0.15%

Yesterday, the US Treasury Department held a Treasury bonds auction, which led to the absorption of liquidity from the banking system, which, in its turn, led to temporary support of the US dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD quotes slightly declined as the euro has an inverse correlation to the dollar index.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1754, 1.1706, 1.1609
• Resistance levels: 1.1799, 1.1817, 1.1854, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From a technical point of view, the general trend on the EUR/USD currency pair is bearish. Now the price is trading near the moving average, which means the price is balanced. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for the sell deals from the resistance levels after sellers show initiative. Buy trades can be considered only from the support levels within the local upward movement.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.1854 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.08.17:

• – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
• – US Fed Chair Powell’s Speech at 20:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3862
• Prev Close: 1.3835
• % chg. over the last day: -0.19%

The British pound decreased slightly due to the temporary strengthening of the dollar index. A lot of macroeconomic statistics will be released in the UK today, so volatility on currency pairs with GBP will be higher during the European session.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3802, 1.3772, 1.3714, 1.3676 ,1.3641, 1.3614, 1.3525
• Resistance levels: 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101

The trend of the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish on the hourly time frame. The price rebounded from the support level, where buyers demonstrated the reaction. The MACD indicator has become negative again, which indicates that the sellers’ pressure is high. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for the buy trades from the zone where the buyers show initiative. Sell positions can be considered from the resistance levels and only on intraday time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.3714 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario is likely to resume.

News feed for 2021.08.17:

• – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 109.61
• Prev Close: 109.26
• % chg. over the last day: -0.32%

Yesterday, the Japanese yen strengthened slightly against the dollar on the back of a positive Q2 GDP report. Industry Activity Index has increased by 2.3% in the last month. As a result, the USD/JPY currency pair has reached a priority change level.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 109.19, 108.65
• Resistance levels: 109.43, 110.04, 110.34, 110.66, 110.95, 111.48

The main trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving average line and has reached the priority change level. The MACD indicator is negative, but there are signs of sellers’ weakness. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy positions from the priority change level after the buyers show initiative. Sell positions should be considered only on the lower time frames from the zone where the sellers show initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.19, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

News feed for 2021.08.17:

• – Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2514
• Prev Close: 1.2574
• % chg. over the last day: +0.48%

The Canadian dollar is highly dependent on the performance of the dollar index and oil price performance. Yesterday, at the end of the day, oil slightly decreased, and the dollar index went up, which was the reason for the USD/CAD quotes growth.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2554, 1.2518, 1.2471, 1.2425, 1.2370, 1.2312
• Resistance levels: 1.2602, 1.2671, 1.2787, 1.2951

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But the local trend is bullish. Now the price has strongly deviated from the moving average. Under such market conditions, it is best for traders to look for the sell positions from the resistance levels after the seller’s initiative. Buy positions should be considered intraday from the support levels within the local upward movement.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2671 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.