InvestMacro

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The currency pair completed a link of decline to 1.1723 and a link of growth to 1.1741. Practically, it is forming a narrow consolidation range. The main scenario for today presumes a breakaway of 1.1720 downwards and the continuation of the wave of decline to 1.1675. The goal is local.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The currency pair keeps going by the trend down. A structure of a declining wave to 1.3786 is forming. After this level is reached, we expect a correction to 1.3860 to start, followed by a decline by the trend to 1.3600.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The currency pair completed an impulse of decline to 73.40. Today the market is correcting this decline. We expect a link of growth to 73.73. At these levels, a consolidation range might form. With an escape downwards, a decline to 72.72 will become possible. With an escape upwards, another link of growth to 74.10 is not excluded.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The currency pair is developing a consolidation range around 110.40. We expect it to escape the range downwards to 110.05. The goal is local.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The currency pair is pushed upwards. The market has broken through 0.9222 upwards, and now the price might leap up to 0.9250. The goal is local. Then we expect a new consolidation range to form at these levels. With an escape downwards, the pair might correct to 0.9150. With an escape upwards, a pathway to 0.9290 might open.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair has performed a wave of decline to 0.7333. At the moment, the market is forming a consolidation range around this level. With an escape downwards, the pair might go to 0.7272. With an escape upwards, another link of growth to 0.7400 is not excluded, followed by a decline by the trend.

BRENT

Oil is developing a consolidation range around 70.84. Another link of decline to 69.70 is not excluded. Then we expect a new wave of growth to 72.20 to begin. With a breakaway of this level upwards, the quotations may proceed to 75.20. The goal is local.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold got supported at 1741.50 and is growing to 1763.53. After this level is reached, we expect a link of decline to 1717.00. With a breakaway of this level as well, the quotations might renew 1666.72.

S&P 500

The stock index completed a link of growth to 4461.0. Today the market is forming a consolidation range under this level. We expect an escape from it downwards to 4441.5. Then growth to 4500.0 might follow.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1738
• Prev Close: 1.1730
• % chg. over the last day: -0.07%

European industrial production fell by 0.3%, in line with analysts’ forecasts. Given the slight strengthening of the dollar index, the European currency was unable to rebound from price lows.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1706, 1.1609
• Resistance levels: 1.1754, 1.1799, 1.1817, 1.1854, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From a technical point of view, the general trend on the EUR/USD currency pair is bearish. The price is about to consolidate in a narrow price range. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for the sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy trades can only be considered throughout the day from the zone where the buyers showed initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.1854 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.08.13:

• – US Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3863
• Prev Close: 1.3806
• % chg. over the last day: -0.41%

The UK GDP increased by 4.8% (on a year-on-year basis) in the second quarter, but it’s still below the pre-pandemic levels. Industrial Production is 8.3%, which is below economists’ expectations. Manufacturing Production has also declined. The statistics came out to be negative, which caused the fall of the GBP/USD quotes.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3802, 1.3772, 1.3714, 1.3676 ,1.3641, 1.3614, 1.3525
• Resistance levels: 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101

The trend of the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish on the hourly time frame. Yesterday, the price rebounded from the resistance level and returned to the support level, where buyers showed initiative. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for the buy trades from the zone where the buyers took the initiative. Sell positions can be considered from the resistance levels and only on intraday time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.3714 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario is likely to resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 110.38
• Prev Close: 110.43
• % chg. over the last day: +0.05%

The USD/JPY currency pair is trading in a narrow price range. The Japanese Yen is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index now, so to predict the fundamentals aspect, traders need to focus more on the economic indicators of the USA rather than Japan.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 110.34, 109.88, 109.43, 109.19, 108.65
• Resistance levels: 110.66, 110.95, 111.48

The main trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price is trading above the moving average, and the MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for the buy positions from the support level near the moving average. Sell positions should be considered only on the lower time frames from the zone where the sellers showed initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.19, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2502
• Prev Close: 1.2521
• % chg. over the last day: +0.15%

The Canadian dollar is highly dependent on the performance of the dollar index and oil price performance. Yesterday, the oil price was almost unchanged, while the dollar index slightly strengthened. As a result, the currency pair USD/CAD increased by 0.15%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2471, 1.2425, 1.2370, 1.2312
• Resistance levels: 1.2518, 1.2554, 1.2602, 1.2671, 1.2787, 1.2951

Considering technical analysis, the USD/CAD trend is bearish. The price went below the moving average, and the MACD indicator became inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for the sell positions from the resistance levels. Traders should consider the buy positions from the support levels and only on intraday time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2671 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

GBPUSD seems to be forming a triple zigzag consisting of primary sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ. Now we are in the final sub-wave Ⓩ. It is likely that it takes the form of double (W)-(X)-(Y) zigzag of the intermediate degree.

It seems that the decline in the intervening wave (X) has come to an end. The minor sub-waves W and X forming the intermediate actionary wave (Y) have also been completed.

Thus, in the near future, the market could continue to move up in the final minor wave Y.

The completion of the primary wave Ⓩ is possible near 1.4283. At that level, intermediate wave (Y) will be at 123.6% of wave (W).

In the second scenario, the market has not yet completed the construction of the second intervening wave Ⓧ of the primary degree.

Perhaps it takes the form of a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y) of the intermediate degree. To complete it, an actionary sub-wave (Y) is necessary. It is likely that it will be a double zigzag W-X-Y, as shown in the chart.

In the short term, the development of W-X-Y sub-waves near 1.3441 is likely.

At the specified level, wave Ⓧ will be at 76.4% of wave Ⓨ.

By Orbex

by JustForex

Last week the number of new jobless claims was 375,000 (previously 387,000) in the US. The labor market is slowly recovering. In July, the US producer price index increased more than expected as high inflation and strong demand, driven by the economic recovery, continue to damage supply chains. The producer price index increased by 7.8% within the last 12 months; this is the highest value since 2010. The US stock market ended Thursday’s trading in growth due to strengthening health care, technology, and consumer goods sectors. The Dow Jones and S&am;P 500 reached new all-time highs for the third session in a row. Inflation data remains the main leverage of the US Federal Reserve now. Although inflation in the United States has slowed down, the Fed will not reduce the quantitative easing (QE) program. Therefore, the major US indices are likely to continue rising until the next inflation statistics.

European stock indices were trading without a single trend yesterday. German DAX jumped by 0.7%, French CAC 40 increased by 0.36%, Italian FTSE MIB added 0.38%, and Spanish IBEX 35 remained at the same level. At the same time, the British FTSE 100 decreased by 0.37%. The main reason for the decline of the British index was the negative statistics on industrial production. Strong corporate reporting from European companies still compensates investors’ concerns about the spread of the Delta strain.

Gold prices increased in the US trading session yesterday. It is important to keep an eye on US government bond yields to predict gold prices. As long as the US Federal Reserve keeps printing money, this fundamental picture plays in favor of rising precious metals prices. But do not expect a strong rise, as gold does not have the same protective asset value now as it did before.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast on global demand for the commodity this year. Demand for oil in China (the largest consumer of fuel) is declining due to restrictions. After the news, oil prices slightly decreased yesterday.

Most Asian stock indices continue to ignore record highs in the US stock market. The broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside of Japan, the MSCI, decreased by 0.59%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 0.6%, and China’s CSI300 decreased by 0.21%. However, Australia’s ASX 200 index increased by 0.53% to a new record due to the growth of medical and technological companies. In Korea, shares of Samsung Electronics fell to a seven-month low due to concerns about lower revenue for the next quarter.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,460.83 +13.13 (+0.30%)

Dow Jones 35,499.85 +14.88 (+0.04%)

DAX 15,937.51 +111.42 (+0.70%)

FTSE 100 7,193.23 -26.91 (-0.37%)

USD Index 93.01 +0.09 (+0.10%)

• – US Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

GBPUSD fails to break higher

The sterling inched lower after the NIESR GDP estimate for the past three months fell short of expectations.

The rally above the daily resistance at 1.3890 may have saved the pound’s 17-month long rally. Though the combination of overextension and lack of support in the short-term may prolong the retracement.

The RSI’s double-dip into the oversold area may lead to a limited rebound.

The bulls will need to lift 1.3890 in order to reverse gears. Otherwise, a breach below 1.3770 may send the pair to 1.3600.

NZDUSD tests key support

The New Zealand dollar finds support after a rise in RBNZ inflation expectations in Q3.

The kiwi has built several layers of support above the key level of 0.6900 with the latest one at 0.6990. This is an indication that buyers are willing to bid up the price.

After a hiatus at the resistance at 0.7060, the RSI has dropped back to the neutral area to give the bulls a chance to make another push. The narrowing range would culminate in a breakout-raising momentum in the process.

SPX 500 surges to new high

The S&P 500 continues to climb as weekly jobless claims meet estimates.

A series of higher highs suggests that the bullish sentiment is still intact. 4480 would be the next stop as momentum traders jump in. The RSI has broken into the overbought territory, which could temper buyers’ fever to raise their stakes.

The index may look to consolidate its gains after a new all-time high. 4440 is fresh support in case of retracement. 4425 near the upper band of the previous consolidation range would be the second line of defense.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the support level, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, including a Hammer and an Inverted Hammer. Going by the patterns, the price might start growing with the aim of 1.1780. After a bounce off the resistance level, the quotations might continue declining. However, the quotations might continue falling to 1.1700 without pulling back to the resistance level.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On H4, pulling back at the support level, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, including a Harami. Going by the patterns, the pair may keep on developing an uptrend. The aim of growth is 111.00. However, the pair may equally go on correcting to 110.20, skipping the signals altogether.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

On H4, at the support level, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, including a Dodji and a Hammer. Going by the signal right now might end up in a correctional impulse. The aim of the pullback is 0.8520. Testing the resistance level and bouncing off it, the quotations might return to the downtrend. However, the price may just go down to 0.8440 skipping the patterns.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

Brent

On D1, the market has tried to develop a downtrend twice after a divergence, yet every such movement turns into a flat. If the market does overcome the support level at the last fractal lows, the bearish dynamics will head for 23.6% (62.84), 38.2% (53.90), 50.0% (57.00), and 61.8% (39.35) Fibo. The resistance level is still the high of 77.47.

On H1, there is a correctional increase after a downtrend. The quotations are nearing 50.0% (71.91), and upon breaking through this level, they might even grow to 61.8% (72.90) Fibo. After this level is tested, we may expect another wave of decline to the current low of 67.67. If the quotations come over the current resistance level of 76.14, this will mean the long-term uptrend will continue.

Индекс Dow Jones

On H4, there is another impulse of growth developing after lengthy tests of the last high. This growth is aimed at the post-correctional extension area of 138.2-161.8% (35615.0-35935.0) Fibo. The support level is the low of 33744.0.

On H1, the quotations have reached the psychologically important resistance level of 35500.0 and might start pulling back after a divergence. The aims of the correction might be 23.6% (35086.0), 38.2% (34830.0), and 50.0% (34623.0) Fibo.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1719
• Prev Close: 1.1739
• % chg. over the last day: +0.17%

During the news release about the dollar index decline, the European currency, which has an inverse correlation with the US dollar, increased by 0.17% yesterday. But European inflation data is still weak. Germany annual inflation rate increased from 2.3% to 3.8% in July, which is in line with economists’ forecasts, but inflation is still rising.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1706, 1.1609
• Resistance levels: 1.1754, 1.1799, 1.1817, 1.1854, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From a technical point of view, the general trend on the EUR/USD currency pair is bearish. But the price showed a bullish initiative from the daily support level yesterday. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for the sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy trades can only be considered throughout the day from the zone where the buyers showed initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.1854 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.08.12:

• – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3835
• Prev Close: 1.3864
• % chg. over the last day: +0.21%

Yesterday, the British currency added 0.21% amid the temporary weakness of the dollar index. There will be a lot of important macroeconomic statistics in the UK today. Good data may lead to the growth of the GBP/USD quotes.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3825, 1.3772, 1.3714, 1.3676 ,1.3641, 1.3614, 1.3525
• Resistance levels: 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101

The trend of the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish on the hourly time frame. The price rebounded from the support level and broke through the local descending channel. The MACD indicator has become positive. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for the buy trades from the zone where the buyers showed initiative. Sell positions can be considered from the resistance levels and only on intraday timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.3714 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario is likely to resume.

News feed for 2021.08.12:

• – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 110.54
• Prev Close: 110.43
• % chg. over the last day: -0.10%

The USD/JPY currency pair decreased by 0.1% due to a drop in the dollar index. Japan’s industrial production index increased from 5.0% to 5.6% on a year-on-year basis. It’s better than economists’ forecasts, but the overall Q3 fundamental forecast for Japan remains weak.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 110.34, 109.88, 109.43, 109.19, 108.65
• Resistance levels: 110.66, 110.95, 111.48

The main trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator went below zero. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for the buy positions from the support level near the moving average. Sell positions should be considered only on the lower time frames from the zone where the sellers showed initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.19, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

News feed for 2021.08.12:

• – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2519
• Prev Close: 1.2503
• % chg. over the last day: -0.13%

The Canadian dollar is highly dependent on the performance of the dollar index and oil price performance. Yesterday, the decrease in the dollar index and the rise in oil prices caused a strengthening of the Canadian dollar and a decrease in the USD/CAD quotes.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2471, 1.2425, 1.2370, 1.2312
• Resistance levels: 1.2518, 1.2554, 1.2602, 1.2671, 1.2787, 1.2951

Considering technical analysis, the USD/CAD trend is bearish. The price went below the moving average, and the MACD indicator shows signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for the sell positions from the resistance levels. Traders should consider the buy positions from the support levels and only on intraday time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2671 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

USDJPY sees limited correction

A drop in July’s core CPI in the US has put the greenback on the defense.

The rebound had gained traction after the pair closed above 110.50, a major resistance on the daily chart. This is a strong sign that the rally may have resumed after a five-week-long consolidation.

Though a repeatedly overbought RSI showed overextension in the short-term, and the current pullback would test the psychological level of 110.00.

Then 111.20 would be the next stop if the bullish momentum picks up again.

AUDUSD tests key resistance

The Australian dollar hit resistance after worse-than-expected consumer inflation expectations.

The pair is still under pressure after it met stiff selling pressure at the 20-day moving average (0.7400).

The drop below the key support at 0.7330 may have threatened the chance of a sustainable rebound. Only a bullish close above 0.7400 would bring back confidence to the bulls.

Otherwise, past 0.7320 the bears would challenge the floor at 0.7290. A breakout could trigger an extended sell-off as those who bought the dip switch side.

US OIL attempts rebound

WTI crude recouped losses after the US inventory showed a deficit last week.

Strong buying interest on the daily support line at 65.30 has initiated a rebound. However, a bearish MA cross on the daily chart may have tempered the bullish mood.

The bulls will need to lift the psychological level of 70.00 as a show of strength. Then they may have a chance to grind past 74 and preserve the rally.

Failing that, a break below the said support may trigger a bearish reversal towards last May’s low at 61.50.

By Orbex

by JustForex

According to the US Labor Department, the consumer price index (CPI) decreased from 0.9% to 0.5%. The core CPI, which does not include food and fuel prices, fell from 0.9% to 0.3%. On a year-on-year basis, the inflation remained at 5.4%, in line with forecasts. Core annual inflation decreased to 4.3% from 4.5%. The US inflation growth is slowing down, easing investors’ fears that the Federal Reserve will reduce its QE program soon. Considering this news, the dollar index decreased by 0.16%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 closed at record highs, while sectors related to economic growth rose following the signing of the infrastructure bill. The Dow Jones index added 0.62%, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.25%, and the Nasdaq index decreased by 0.16% again.

European stock indices also hit new price records. The STOXX 600 composite index increased by 0.4%, hitting an all-time high for the eighth consecutive trading session. The good report results from the EU companies over the past quarter compensate for the concerns about a new wave of COVID-19 and weak European statistics. Famous airline JetBlue started transatlantic flights from the US to London despite the rise of the Delta strain cases in the US.

The White House appealed to OPEC+ countries to increase oil production in order to increase supply in the market. Obviously, the US is against the rising of fuel prices. Meanwhile, last week’s US crude oil inventories data showed that Americans themselves are not eager to increase domestic oil production.

Due to the fall of the dollar index and reducing the yields of US government bonds, gold futures added 1.26%. Buy the rumor, sell the fact. For now, rumors on QE program cuts are just rumors, so gold and silver will rise in the coming weeks.

Asia-Pacific stock indices are declining. The region remains concerned about the recent tightening of the control of Chinese regulators over a number of companies, as well as due to the widespread of the Delta strain cases. Low vaccination rates are one of the main reasons for this dramatic outbreak. A review of inflation expectations from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) predicts a sharp rise in inflation from 1.87% to 3.02% by the end of the year. New Zealand’s strong economic recovery, rapidly declining unemployment rate, and rapidly rising house prices triggered RBNZ to open the issue of reducing stimulus.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,447.70 +10.95 (+0.25%)

Dow Jones 35,484.97 +220.30 (+0.62%)

DAX 15,826.09 +55.38 (+0.35%)

FTSE 100 7,220.14 +59.10 (+0.83%)

USD Index 92.90 -0.16 (-0.17%)

• – New Zealand RBNZ Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.