InvestMacro

By Orbex

The current AMZN structure suggests that a simple a-b-c zigzag of the cycle degree has begun.

It is possible that the market has completed the formation of the first major wave a. This is a bullish 5-wave impulse, which is marked by primary sub-waves ①-②-③-④-⑤.

Thus, in the last section of the chart, we observe a decrease in the price. In turn, this could indicate the beginning of the construction of a bearish correction b. Perhaps this correction will take a simple zigzag Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ structure.

In the near future, there could be a decline in the final intermediate wave (5). This could end the primary impulse wave Ⓐ near 2642.64. At that level, wave (5) will be at 76.4% of the impulse (3).

Alternatively, the primary correction wave ④ has only recently ended.

Currently, the primary fifth wave could be in the process of development. This takes the form of a bullish impulse (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) of the intermediate degree.

At the time of writing the review, small sub-waves (1)-(2) could be complete. Therefore, in the near future, the market could grow in the intermediate impulse sub-wave (3). The end of the impulse is likely at the level of 3772.99.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

By Orbex

AUDUSD attempts to break out

The Australian dollar finds support from a low jobless rate in January.

The pair has previously hit resistance in the supply zone around 0.7250. This is a daily resistance from the sell-off in late January. Then a recovery above 0.7180 suggests solid buying pressure before a bearish mood could take hold again.

A break above the key hurdle could initiate a bullish reversal above this year’s peak (0.7310). Otherwise, a prolonged consolidation may test the demand area between 0.7100 and 0.7150.

NZDUSD tests resistance

The New Zealand dollar climbed higher as the RBNZ can lift its cash rates next week.

Price action came under pressure on the 30-day moving average (0.6730). However, strong support at 0.6590 builds a case for a potential reversal.

A break above 0.6690 is an encouraging sign leaving 0.6730 as the last obstacle before a bullish extension. A broader rally would bring the kiwi back to January’s high at 0.6890.

In the meantime, an overbought RSI caused a brief pullback towards 0.6660.

SPX 500 consolidates

The S&P 500 struggles as the Russia-Ukraine crisis persists. The previous rebound has met stiff selling pressure over the 30-day moving average (4590).

A pullback has sent the RSI into the oversold territory, triggering some buyers’ interest in racking up the bargain. The rebound is still valid as long as the index stays above the critical area of 4280.

A break above 4480 may extend gains to the double top at 4590 which is an important resistance. 4360 is the immediate support if the sideways action lingers.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming another Hammer reversal pattern close to the support level, USDCAD is reversing and may form a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance area at 1.2815. However, an alternative scenario implies that the asset may correct to reach 1.2665 first and then resume trading upwards.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern near the resistance area. At the moment, the asset is reversing and starting a new decline. In this case, the downside target may be the support level at 0.7150. After testing the level, the price may rebound from it and resume the ascending impulse. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may grow to reach 0.7255 without falling towards the support level.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after testing the support area, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, for example, Hammer and Engulfing. At the moment, USDCHF is reversing and moving within the ascending channel. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.9290. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may correct to reach 0.9185 before resuming its ascending tendency.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1372
• Prev Close: 1.1361
• % chg. over the last day: +0.10%

Geopolitics came out on top and displaced all other events and statistical data. In the backdrop of geopolitical risks, the dollar index strengthened yesterday, but not as much as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. The number of new jobless claims in the US was 248,000, while analysts expected 218,000. Fed representative Bullard insists on the faster tightening of the monetary policy and wants the Fed to raise the interest rate by 1% (100 basis points) already by mid-summer.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1322, 1.1283
• Resistance levels: 1.1392, 1.1423, 1.1481, 1.1534

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is trading in a narrow price range around the moving average. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for sell trades on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.1392 or 1.1423. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.1322, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1423 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.02.18:

• – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 00:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 17:45 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Brainards Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3577
• Prev Close: 1.3614
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27%

The GBP is getting stronger due to fundamental support from the Bank of England, which has already raised the interest rate twice and is planning a 3rd increase at its next meeting. The Fed will complete its asset purchase program and start to raise rates on March 11, so the pound has more time to get stronger. After that, both currencies will have support from the central banks, and the growth of quotes will at least stop.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3594, 1.3549, 1.3506, 1.3475, 1.3457
• Resistance levels: 1.3639, 1.3662

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bullish. Unlike the euro, the British pound is more stable, as it has fundamental support. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be looked at from the support level 1.3594. A resistance level of 1.3639 may be considered for opening sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3475 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario will be broken.

News feed for 2022.02.18:

• – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 115.46
• Prev Close: 114.91
• % chg. over the last day: -0.47%

Forecasting the exchange rate of the Japanese yen is becoming more difficult, as geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe are forcing investors to move into defensive assets, which also include the yen. But as soon as the situation cools down, the Japanese yen will get cheaper again (USD/JPY will grow) as the policies of the central banks in Japan and the US are now completely opposite. The Fed is already preparing for a tightening while the Bank of Japan actively stimulates the economy. The nationwide core CPI rose to 0.2% in annual terms, and the consumer inflation rate reached 0.5% in annual terms. Despite active economic stimulus, inflation in Japan remains at the lowest level in the world.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 114.94, 114.76
• Resistance levels: 115.21, 115.43, 115.85, 116.12, 116.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Yesterday, the price fell below the priority change level but could not hold there. At the Asian session, there was a sharp return. A false breakdown zone was formed. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals on the lower time frames from the support level of 114.94, but with additional confirmation. Sell positions can be looked at from the resistance level 115.42 or 115.64, but only with short targets and additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 114.94, the uptrend will likely be broken.

News feed for 2022.02.18:

• – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 01:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2686
• Prev Close: 1.2708
• % chg. over the last day: +0.17%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. The dollar index was slightly stronger yesterday, while oil prices decreased on the background of the Iran negotiations, which can bring a million new Iranian barrels or more to the world market. As a result, the USD/CAD is trading without a single dynamic.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2687, 1.2664, 1.2600, 1.2506
• Resistance levels: 1.2741, 1.2794

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is in a wide flat with high volatility. It is worth trading only with short targets, as both oil and the dollar index are inclined to grow now. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2687. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2741, but with an additional confirmation in the form of an initiative of sellers.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2664 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.02.18:

• – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

USDCAD struggles for support

The Canadian dollar rose after January’s CPI exceeded expectations. The recent triple top near 1.2800 at the origin of the January sell-off is a sign of strong bearish pressure.

A combination of profit-taking and new selling means that sentiment is yet to make a decisive turnaround. The bulls will need to push past this major daily resistance before the US dollar could recover to 1.2960.

Failing that, a drop below the lower band (1.2640) of the current consolidation range would bring the pair to 1.2560.

GBPCHF attempts breakout

The sterling finds support from upbeat readings in the UK’s CPI and retail sales.

The rally came under pressure in the supply zone around 1.2600. A retreat below 1.2500 has shaken out some weak hands but the sentiment remains upbeat. A subsequent bounce off the demand zone (1.2470) suggests solid interest in keeping the pound afloat.

A break above the said resistance would trigger momentum buying and open the door to last October’s high at 1.2760. On the downside, a deeper retracement would test the next support at 1.2380.

USOIL shows signs of overextension

Oil prices faltered after a surprise rise in US inventories. WTI hits resistance at September 2014’s high (95.50).

The RSI’s repeated overbought situation on the daily chart may restrain the bullish fever. A bearish RSI divergence on the hourly time frame indicates a loss of momentum in the short term. 89.10 is the closest support that sits along the 20-day moving average.

Buyers could be waiting to enter at pullbacks. A deeper retreat could trigger a sell-off towards 84.00, which is a demand zone from January’s breakout.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1355; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.1375 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1185. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1445. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1535. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the rising channel’s downside border and fix below 1.1245.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is trading at 115.30; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 115.20 and then resume moving upwards to reach 117.05. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 114.45. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 113.65. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the descending channel’s upside border and fix above 115.95.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

EURGBP is trading at 0.8362; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.8375 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.8270. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.8425. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.8515. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the rising channel’s downside border and fix below 0.8330.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In the H4 chart, after rebounding from the “overbought area”, USDCHF is trading below 7/8. In this case, the price is expected to continue falling to reach the support at 5/8. However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks 8/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards the resistance at +2/8.

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue falling.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD has reached the “overbought area”. In this case, the price is expected to rebound from 8/8 and move downwards to reach the support at 6/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 8/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and resume growing towards the next resistance at +1/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1358
• Prev Close: 1.1373
• % chg. over the last day: +0.13%

Yesterday, the FOMC minutes showed that officials voted to raise interest rates at the next meeting and are ready to initiate the Fed balance sheet reduction that could begin later this year. In addition, FOMC officials may go for a faster rate hike, but only if the inflation rate does not decline. The report had nothing negative, so the market reacted calmly to the news.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1322, 1.1283
• Resistance levels: 1.1392, 1.1423, 1.1481, 1.1534

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price has corrected to the moving average. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for sell trades on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.1392 or 1.1423. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.1322, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1423 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.02.17:

• – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3534
• Prev Close: 1.3577
• % chg. over the last day: +0.31%

The UK inflation rate increased by 0.1% to an annualized rate of 5.5%. Inflation growth slowed down, but analysts expected it to be faster. The Bank of England expects inflation to exceed 7% this spring due to higher energy prices and a planned National Insurance rate hike. Analysts expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates again at its next meeting.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3549, 1.3506, 1.3475, 1.3457
• Resistance levels: 1.3594, 1.3639, 1.3662

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bullish. Unlike the euro, the British pound is more stable, as it has fundamental support. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be looked at from the support level 1.3549. A resistance level of 1.3639 may be considered for opening sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3475 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario will be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 115.58
• Prev Close: 115.44
• % chg. over the last day: -0.12%

The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now aimed at making the Japanese yen cheaper because of the maximum stimulus. At the same time, the Fed plans to tighten its monetary policy aggressively. Such opposite policies of central banks contribute to the growth of USD/JPY quotes. However, it should be noted that the Japanese yen is considered a safe-haven currency in case of panic in the market. This morning, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe has escalated again, so investors began to buy the Japanese yen as an insurance asset.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 115.21, 115.02, 114.76
• Resistance levels: 115.43, 115.85, 116.12, 116.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The USD/JPY quotes are growing, and the price is trading in a corridor with wide volatility. The MACD indicator is negative. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals on the lower time frames from the support level of 115.02, but with additional confirmation. Sell positions can be looked at from the resistance level 115.42 or 115.64, but only with short targets and additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 115.02, the uptrend will likely be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2719
• Prev Close: 1.2690
• % chg. over the last day: -0.23%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. The inflation rate in Canada has exceeded 5% for the first time since 1991. Consumer prices rose from 4.8% to 5.1% in annual terms. Challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic continue to put pressure on supply chains, and consumer energy prices remain high. The Canadian dollar is now strengthening as the Bank of Canada may respond to a surge in inflation by raising interest rates.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2696, 1.2664, 1.2600, 1.2506
• Resistance levels: 1.2741, 1.2794

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is in a wide flat with high volatility. It is worth trading only with short targets, as both oil and the dollar index are inclined to grow now. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2696. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2741, but with an additional confirmation in the form of the seller’s initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2664 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

The USDCHF pair shows the actionary wave y of the cycle degree ended and then the cycle intervening wave x emerged.

Judging by the internal structure, the cycle intervening wave x can take the form of a primary triple zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ. The sub-waves Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ already look finished. Currently, there is a decrease in the price in the final wave Ⓩ. This takes the form of an intermediate double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y).

In the near future, wave Ⓩ could continue to move to the level of 0.904. At that level, wave x will be at 76.4% of wave y.

After the end of wave x, bulls can update the previous high of 0.937, marked by the intervening wave y.

The second option hints at a price increase. According to this view, the formation of the cycle intervening wave x is fully complete. It has the form of a triple zigzag of the primary degree.

After the end of the reactionary intervening wave x, we saw the price rise and the development of the cycle wave z. Perhaps it takes the form of a primary double zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ.

An intermediate triple zigzag ended within wave Ⓦ and the intervening wave Ⓧ. The final actionary wave Ⓨ can take the form of a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y).

In the near future, prices could rise in the intermediate wave (Y) to the level of 0.952, where cycle waves z and y will be equal.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com