The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1358
• Prev Close: 1.1373
• % chg. over the last day: +0.13%

Yesterday, the FOMC minutes showed that officials voted to raise interest rates at the next meeting and are ready to initiate the Fed balance sheet reduction that could begin later this year. In addition, FOMC officials may go for a faster rate hike, but only if the inflation rate does not decline. The report had nothing negative, so the market reacted calmly to the news.

• Support levels: 1.1322, 1.1283
• Resistance levels: 1.1392, 1.1423, 1.1481, 1.1534

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price has corrected to the moving average. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for sell trades on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.1392 or 1.1423. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.1322, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1423 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

• – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3534
• Prev Close: 1.3577
• % chg. over the last day: +0.31%

The UK inflation rate increased by 0.1% to an annualized rate of 5.5%. Inflation growth slowed down, but analysts expected it to be faster. The Bank of England expects inflation to exceed 7% this spring due to higher energy prices and a planned National Insurance rate hike. Analysts expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates again at its next meeting.

• Support levels: 1.3549, 1.3506, 1.3475, 1.3457
• Resistance levels: 1.3594, 1.3639, 1.3662

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bullish. Unlike the euro, the British pound is more stable, as it has fundamental support. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be looked at from the support level 1.3549. A resistance level of 1.3639 may be considered for opening sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3475 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario will be broken.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 115.58
• Prev Close: 115.44
• % chg. over the last day: -0.12%

The monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now aimed at making the Japanese yen cheaper because of the maximum stimulus. At the same time, the Fed plans to tighten its monetary policy aggressively. Such opposite policies of central banks contribute to the growth of USD/JPY quotes. However, it should be noted that the Japanese yen is considered a safe-haven currency in case of panic in the market. This morning, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe has escalated again, so investors began to buy the Japanese yen as an insurance asset.

• Support levels: 115.21, 115.02, 114.76
• Resistance levels: 115.43, 115.85, 116.12, 116.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The USD/JPY quotes are growing, and the price is trading in a corridor with wide volatility. The MACD indicator is negative. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals on the lower time frames from the support level of 115.02, but with additional confirmation. Sell positions can be looked at from the resistance level 115.42 or 115.64, but only with short targets and additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below 115.02, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2719
• Prev Close: 1.2690
• % chg. over the last day: -0.23%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. The inflation rate in Canada has exceeded 5% for the first time since 1991. Consumer prices rose from 4.8% to 5.1% in annual terms. Challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic continue to put pressure on supply chains, and consumer energy prices remain high. The Canadian dollar is now strengthening as the Bank of Canada may respond to a surge in inflation by raising interest rates.

• Support levels: 1.2696, 1.2664, 1.2600, 1.2506
• Resistance levels: 1.2741, 1.2794

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is in a wide flat with high volatility. It is worth trading only with short targets, as both oil and the dollar index are inclined to grow now. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2696. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2741, but with an additional confirmation in the form of the seller’s initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2664 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.