Archive for Financial News – Page 316

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 26.07.2022 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming a Shooting Star reversal pattern close to the resistance area, the asset is moving sideways. At the moment, EURUSD may reverse in the form of another descending impulse. In this case, the downside target may be at 1.0110. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 1.0340 and continue the downtrend only after testing the resistance area.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed a Hammer reversal pattern not far from the support area. At the moment, the asset may reverse and form a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 137.80. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 135.70 and continue the uptrend only after testing the support area.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming an Engulfing reversal pattern near the resistance area, EURGBP is reversing in the form of a new descending impulse. In this case, the downside target may be the support level at 0.8420. Later, the market may test this level, break it, and continue moving downwards. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, in which the asset may correct to reach 0.8550 before testing 0.8420.

EURGBP

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.07.26

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0208
  • Prev Close: 1.0218
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.10%

The US central bank has no reason to get more hawkish, especially as the economy may be on the verge of recession. According to analysts, lower inflation expectations and an expected decline in the consumer price index are imminent in the coming months. It means that the Fed’s peak hawkishness has likely passed, removing a powerful bullish catalyst from the US dollar. On that basis, the most likely scenario of this week’s Fed meeting will be a 75 basis point rate hike. And this scenario is already priced in.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0181, 1.0106, 1.0035, 1.0000
  • Resistance levels: 1.0250, 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is forming a wide balance, and the MACD indicator has become inactive, but the buyers’ pressure remains. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0181 or 1.0106, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0250 or 1.0284, but only after additional confirmation and only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0000 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.07.26:
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1993
  • Prev Close: 1.2046
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.44%

Despite gains in recent days, fundamentally, the British currency remains weak as the struggle for the Conservative Party leadership highlights the problems facing the country. The latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that investors slightly reduced their net short positions in the sterling last week, halting a two-week rise but still keeping the market negative for the pound. As the race for the Prime Minister’s seat intensifies, analysts will be watching today’s televised debate between Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and former Finance Minister Rishi Sunak. Many expect UK policy to increase negative sentiment against the sterling in the coming months.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2000, 1.1907, 1.1803
  • Resistance levels: 1.2085, 1.2137

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. Buyers’ pressure has intensified. The MACD indicator is positive again, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best to look at intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2000, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2085, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1907 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 136.09
  • Prev Close: 136.65
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.41%

According to the monetary policy minutes report, the Bank of Japan expects core consumer prices (excluding food and fuel) in Japan to rise by 2.3% this fiscal year on an annualized basis, mainly due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact of yen depreciation. For the fiscal 2023 year, the forecasts are a 1.7% increase in consumer prices. Crude oil and other energy prices are expected to remain high. So, there are no fundamental reasons for the yen to strengthen at the moment, and the decrease in USD/JPY quotes occurs mainly due to the decline in the US Dollar Index.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 135.99, 135.40, 134.64, 134.11
  • Resistance levels: 136.60, 137.26, 137.81, 138.25, 138.56, 140.29

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator is not active. It should be noted that any fundamental factors do not accompany the fall in the USD/JPY quotes, so selling is still a very cautious option. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be searched for intraday from the support level of 135.99, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, traders can consider the resistance level of 136.60 or 137.26, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 138.25, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2022.07.26:
  • – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2917
  • Prev Close: 1.2846
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.55%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so rising oil prices are strengthening the Canadian currency. The Bank of Canada, as well as the Fed, is on the path of aggressive interest rate increases. The difference between rates is minimal. The Central Bank of Canada holds the rate at 2.5%, while the Fed has a rate of 1.75%. A 0.75% rate hike on Wednesday would put both central banks’ rates at 2.5%. Therefore, traders should not expect a medium-term trend on the USD/CAD currency pair right now.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2781
  • Resistance levels: 1.2841, 1.2912, 1.3006, 1.3085, 1.3154

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. At the moment, the price is forming a balance and trading at the levels of the moving lines. The MACD indicator has become negative again. Under such market conditions, it is best to consider sell deals from the resistance level of 1.2841 or 1.2912, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level 1.2781, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the 1.3006 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Traders focus on big-company reports today

By JustForex

The Dow Jones index had a positive start to the week on Monday as a rally in energy offset weakness in the technology sector ahead of quarterly reports from major technology companies and a Federal Reserve meeting. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.28%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.13%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.35% yesterday.

The threat of a recession could push the Fed to roll back its hike cycle as the central bank tries to get a soft landing for the US economy, and raising interest rates brings the US economy closer to recession. According to analysts, lower inflation expectations and an expected decline in the Consumer Price Index are imminent in the coming months. That means the Fed’s hawkishness is at its peak, and a change in the Fed’s outlook could lead to a bearish US dollar reaction.

On Monday, US retailer Walmart (WMT) Inc lowered its earnings forecast and said shoppers are cutting back on discretionary purchases as inflation hits family budgets. Shares of WMT fell by 10% on the report.

Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Visa (V), Louis Vuitton ADR (LVMUY), Coca-Cola (KO), McDonald’s (MCD), United Parcel Service (UPS), Texas Instruments (TXN), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Unilever ADR (UL), 3M (MMM), General Electric (GE), General Motors (GM) and others report today.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. German DAX (DE30) was down by 0.33% on Monday, French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.33%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained0.42%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up by 0.41%.

Business sentiment in Germany is cooling down. The Ifo Business Climate Index fell to 88.6 points in July from 92.2 points (seasonally adjusted) in June and reached its lowest value since June 2020. Companies expect doing business to become much more difficult in the coming months. Higher energy prices and the threat of gas shortages are putting pressure on the economy. Germany is on the verge of a recession.

Oil rose in volatile trading ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision this week. Oil prices increased amid expectations that a reduction in natural gas supplies from Russia to Europe could encourage a switch to crude oil.

Asian markets traded lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.22%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day gaining 0.02%.

Singapore’s Consumer Price Index rose from 5.6% to 6.7% year on year, surpassing economists’ median estimate of 6.2%. The last time such a figure was in 2008. The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes fuel and living expenses, increased to 4.4% in June from 3.6% in May. According to experts, a rebound in domestic demand in some regional economies as the Covid-19 restrictions are loosened could lead to a further rise in inflation.

In Australia, inflation data will be released on Wednesday. In addition to being an important indicator, Australia publishes consumer price data once a quarter. The RBA is expected to hold its monetary policy meeting next week. It is expected that inflation will rise to 4.7% YoY from 3.7%. Thus, the most likely scenario for the central bank’s further actions is another 0.5% rate hike.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,966.84 +5.21 (+0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 31,990.04 +90.75 (+0.28%)

DAX (DE40) 13,210.32 −43.36 (−0.33%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,306.30 +29.93 (+0.41%)

USD Index 106.43 −0.30 (−0.28%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Big Tech earnings and Fed meeting in focus

By ForexTime

Asian markets edged higher on Tuesday, drawing support from China’s technology sector as investors braced for another busy and potentially volatile week for financial markets.

Overnight, Wall Street delivered a mixed performance thanks to the growing caution ahead of earnings from the tech titans, as well as the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. In the FX space, the dollar weakened against most G10 currencies while gold traded within a tight range, waiting for a fresh fundamental catalyst. Oil prices are on the front foot this morning following reports that Russia plans to tighten its gas supplies on Europe.

On the data front, the IMF will be in focus today as it releases an updated world economic outlook. There are also a couple of key economic releases from major economies over the next few days, especially in the United States. It may be wise to keep an eye out on the latest US consumer confidence report for July, US Q2 GDP, and the PCE core deflator among other key economic releases.

The tech megacaps will be under the spotlight as they publish their earnings this week. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, and Microsoft announce their results today after US markets close. Meta, Amazon, and Apple report their earnings over the next few days. If these titans report much better than expected quarterly result, this could support US equity markets, especially the Nasdaq 100 which is down almost 25% year-to-date.

It’s all about the Fed meeting

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 75-basis points for a second straight meeting tomorrow. However, the main focus will be directed towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting conference. When considering how financial markets remain highly sensitive to any topic relating to inflation and interest rates, Powell will have to choose his words very wisely. He is likely to highlight the Fed’s determination to extinguish inflation while inflicting more pain on the economy with continued policy tightening. While the U.S economy seems to be holding steady with the latest employment numbers encouraging, inflation remains a cause for concern as consumer prices jumped 9.1% in June from a year earlier. There have also been worrying signs from recent data with weakness in business survey data and the jobless claims.

If the Fed moves ahead with a 75-basis point hike, this may not be enough to keep dollar bulls in the driving seat. Such a move needs to be complemented by firmly hawkish comments from Powell, feeding speculation around more aggressive hikes this year. Should the Fed surprise the market with a smaller than expected hike, this could send the dollar tumbling with a cautious-sounding Powell adding insult to injury. Whatever the outcome of the Fed meeting, it is likely to influence the dollar which has weakened against most G10 currencies this week.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold is likely to remain on standby until the Fed rate decision on Wednesday. The precious metal has barely moved since Monday due to the absence of a fresh directional catalyst. It will be interesting to see how gold reacts when the Fed moves ahead with a 75-basis rate hike. Will the precious metal weaken due to its zero-yielding status? Or will a weaker dollar limit downside losses?

Looking at the technical picture, prices are trading around the $1724 level as of writing. The $1700 remains a key point of interest this week and a level that can determine whether gold rebounds or extends the decline.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Half of investors to buy more stocks this year, despite market volatility

By George Prior 

More than half of retail investors are planning to buy more stocks before the end of 2022, reveals a new global survey, but they must do so carefully and avoid over-exposure, warns Nigel Green, CEO of the deVere Group of companies.

The warning from the game-changing chief executive of one of the world’s largest financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations, comes after a poll of more than 700 clients found that 56% are seeking to add more equities to their investment portfolios this year.

The respondents are clients who currently reside in North America, the UK, Europe, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.

Of the findings, Nigel Green says: “The poll’s findings show that retail investors are not behaving as you might expect.

“A jittery start to the year for stock markets got even worse last month, with most major indexes coping with major bouts of volatility.

“The S&P 500, for example, ended the first half of the year down nearly 21%, the most dramatic first-half shedding in more than five decades.

“However, investors are shrugging off the bearish sentiment and are preparing to top-up their portfolios.”

He continues: “This is a good thing as it shows that people are thinking about the long-term.  They are preparing to use the downturn to their financial advantage by building their future wealth with quality stocks at lower prices.

“They see that the recent panic-selling has created some important long-term opportunities with high upside potential and low-risk possibilities.

“Sensibly, they are not only remaining fully invested but they are looking to build their investments.”

Despite the bullish sentiment, the deVere CEO also issues a warning to those seeking radically more exposure to equities.

“Stepping off the sidelines to enhance your investment portfolios is to be championed, but you must also ensure that those bolsters help to create resilience and dynamism.

“You must buy wisely in this current volatile, high inflation environment.

“You should bear in mind that long-term and short-duration assets respond differently to rising inflation and interest rates.

“In addition, against the current backdrop, you should be considering less familiar, return-enhancing asset classes which could include venture capital, structured products, cryptocurrencies, high dividend stocks, hedge funds and managed futures, and real estate, amongst others.”

Nigel Green concludes: “Building your investments is, clearly, the best way to grow your long-term wealth. But don’t get carried away with one asset class.

“Diversification remains your best tool to reach your financial objectives.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Cryptocurrencies are gaining ground across Africa. That’s both good news and bad

By Iwa Salami, University of East London 

Cryptocurrencies have become popular in African and other developing countries. That’s according to a policy brief released recently by UNCTAD, a United Nations agency. Significant proportions of Kenya (8.5%), South Africa (7.1%) and Nigeria’s (6.3%) populations are using these digital currencies. In June, the Central African Republic adopted bitcoin as a legal tender.

The report warns that widespread use of unregulated digital currencies poses danger to the continent’s financial system. In an interview with The Conversation Africa, Iwa Salami, an expert in financial technology law and regulation, examines the future of digital currencies in Africa.

Why is cryptocurrency becoming popular in Africa?

Cryptocurrencies have gained acceptance among a large proportion of the low-income population that was, previously, financially marginalised. Most banks in Africa were not accessible to this segment. Even when they were, low-income account holders were discouraged by high transaction costs.

Another factor is economic stagnation compounded by debt crises and political instability in African economies since the era of independence. This has resulted in weak currencies ravaged by inflation in countries like Kenya and Nigeria.

Cryptocurrencies promised to address both financial exclusion and the problem of weak domestic currencies.

Cryptocurrency gives everyone with access to a mobile device and internet connectivity the opportunity to engage in activities similar to those conducted through financial institutions and intermediaries. That includes payments, sending remittances and making investments.

Investment is particularly inviting to the technically savvy. It gives them the opportunity to hold assets that aren’t affected by rising inflation and depreciating domestic currencies.

Cryptocurrencies are also quicker, cheaper and easier to use than conventional methods. That’s because the technology facilitates peer-to-peer transactions rather than relying on intermediaries. These currencies were more accessible than traditional banks during the pandemic and lockdowns. This further drove their use and growth across Africa.

What does a high number of people holding cryptos imply?

This can facilitate economic activity in African countries. People with no access to banks and banking services are able to pay for goods and services using cryptos.

Crypto transactions are also believed to be a more secure way of transacting. Unless someone gains access to the private key for your crypto wallet, they cannot sign transactions or access your funds.

The system also facilitates transparency. All cryptocurrency transactions take place on the publicly distributed blockchain ledger. There are tools that allow anyone to look up transaction data – including where, when, and how much of a cryptocurrency someone sent from a wallet address.

But there are risks, too. What are those?

First, cryptocurrencies are very complex. They require a bit of technological astuteness to embrace. A significant proportion of the adult population in sub-Saharan Africa (34.7%) is illiterate and may not be able to grasp it. This, to a certain extent, turns the financial inclusion argument on its head.

Secondly, although it is argued that the blockchain is a more secure way of transacting, the downside, of course, is that if you lose your private key there’s no way to recover your funds. This is a threat that does not exist if you have a bank account.

Thirdly, cryptocurrencies have had a history of volatility, as is currently being experienced in the crypto market). This has adversely affected retail investors, especially those who do not understand this type of asset class.

Another issue of profound concern to African states is the potential threat to monetary sovereignty. Should crypto ever be more widely used than domestic fiat currency, national monetary agencies such as central banks may not be able to steer their economies to a path of growth using monetary policy. Such policy is, after all, primarily administered through domestic currencies.

An associated threat is the weakening of effective capital controls in African states. These are needed to prevent capital flight from domestic economies. Any weakening can result in significant volatility in currency rates and the rapid depreciation of domestic currencies.

There are also threats to financial stability. This could arise from significant exposure that financial institutions, like banks, have to crypto firms such as through loans. Regulation in some African countries, such as Nigeria addresses this by restricting transactions between banks and crypto assets service providers.

What is the future of cryptocurrencies in Africa?

Despite the ongoing downturn in the market, cryptocurrency represents the future of finance and financial transactions. And there are indications that cryptocurrencies are here to stay which is seen from their increasing recognition by countries. At one extreme, the governments of El Salvador and the Central African Republic have adopted bitcoin as legal tender, although the implementation and impact of this on their broader economies have been faced with severe criticisms.

Others, such as Nigeria, have recognised the need for state representation of digital currencies in the form of central bank digital currencies. Many other countries are now exploring this option.

It is important to note, however, that the uptake of central bank digital currencies has been very low in developing countries that have rolled them out. There are also ongoing investigations by countries into the economic impact of central bank digital currencies and whether adoption is the right approach.

But if cryptocurrencies are to live up to their promise, both on the African continent and elsewhere, there must be a globally coordinated and holistic approach to regulation, since transactions are global. Although some action on this front is emerging, the current fragmented approach to regulation across the world is not ideal.The Conversation

About the Author:

Iwa Salami, Reader (Associate Professor) in Law, University of East London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Murrey Math Lines 25.07.2022 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, EURUSD is trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to test 3/8, break it, and then continue falling to reach the support at 2/8. Still, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 4/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards the resistance at 5/8.

EURUSDH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

EURUSD_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD is also trading below the 200-day Moving Average to indicate a possible descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break 2/8 and continue falling to reach the support at 1/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards 4/8.

GBPUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its decline.

GBPUSD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 25.07.2022 (GBPUSD, BRENT, USDJPY)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is testing Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.1935 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.2235. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.1875. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.1685.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent is falling within the bearish channel. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 103.05 and then resume moving downwards to reach 92.15. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 106.05. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 110.55.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is rebounding from the support area. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 137.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 133.70. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 138.75. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 139.65.

USDJPY

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.07.25

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0226
  • Prev Close: 1.0215
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.11%

The European Central Bank joined many other central banks in raising interest rates last week as its focus was on fighting inflation rather than a potential economic slowdown. On Friday, ECB chief Christine Lagarde said that the ECB would raise rates as much as needed to bring inflation back to target levels. By narrowing the interest rate differential, the euro has temporarily strengthened. But it should be noted that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.75-1% this week, which will widen the rates spread, causing the EUR/USD quotes to fall below parity again.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0181, 1.0106, 1.0035, 1.0000
  • Resistance levels: 1.0220, 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hour time frame is bullish. The price is forming a wide balance, and the MACD indicator has become inactive, but the buyers’ pressure remains. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0181 or 1.0106, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0220 or 1.0284, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0000 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.07.25:
  • – Eurozone German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1989
  • Prev Close: 1.2006
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.15%

Over the past month, the UK Manufacturing PMI has fallen from 52.8 to 52.2, while the service sector PMI has fallen from 54.3 to 53.3. This is weak data for the economy. The closer the index is to level 50, the closer the recession is. Statistically, if the PMI falls below 50, amid falling GDP, officials declare a recession. Volatile energy prices and a tight labor market have already caused Bank of England policymakers to oscillate between aggressively raising interest rates and the need to protect the economy from rising prices. With its open economy and huge current account deficit, the UK remains very vulnerable.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1964, 1.1907, 1.1803
  • Resistance levels: 1.2085, 1.2137

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1964 or 1.1907, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered intraday from the resistance level of 1.2085, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1803 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 137.34
  • Prev Close: 136.06
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.94%

From the fundamental point of view, nothing has changed on the USD/JPY currency pair, as the Bank of Japan is still keeping its soft monetary policy. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve will raise the rate by another 0.75-1% this week and increase the difference between the US and Japanese rates even more. Even so, Japan’s yen has temporarily strengthened on the back of the dollar, which in turn declined at the end of last week due to the strengthening euro as the ECB raised the interest rate unexpectedly by 0.5%.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 135.99, 135.40, 134.64, 134.11
  • Resistance levels: 136.60, 137.26, 137.81, 138.25, 138.56, 140.29

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to bearish. The price has consolidated below the moving averages and broke through the priority change level. But it should be understood that this fall is not accompanied by any fundamental factors, so it is still necessary to be cautious when selling. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be searched for intraday from the support level of 135.99, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, traders can consider the resistance level of 136.60 or 137.26, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 138.25, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
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The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2865
  • Prev Close: 1.2914
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.38%

Canadian retail sales data for May increased by 1.6% on Friday, beating expectations of 1.2%. Retail sales excluding cars were also stronger than expected, +1.9% compared to the market forecast of 1.6% (m/m). But the Canadian dollar ended the day lower due to lower oil prices.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2862, 1.2781
  • Resistance levels: 1.2934, 1.3006, 1.3085, 1.3154

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. At the moment, the price is forming a balance and is trading at the levels of the moving lines. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is best to consider sell deals from the resistance level of 1.2934, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be viewed on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2862, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the 1.3085 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
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By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Comments Support AUD

By RoboForex Analytical Department

AUD/USD is balancing at 0.6083 on Monday. The bulls managed to break the descending channel and they stand a good chance of starting a new ascending tendency in the near future.

The RBA Governor is ready to tighten the regulator’s monetary policy by doubling the benchmark interest rate. The reason for this announcement is simple – it’s necessary to push inflation back to its target of 2-3%. Market players tend to respond to such comments, that’s why the AUD got significant support.

The quarterly CPI report is scheduled to be released as early as Wednesday and it is expected to show further growth in inflation, which has already reached its 20-year highs. Another important report, Retail Sales, will be published on Thursday and no positive dynamics are expected here as well. If this indicator is also far below expectations, the risks of a rate-hike by the RBA will increase, helping the AUD to continue its uptrend.

It should be noted that early in the year Philip Lowe wasn’t ready for monetary policy tightening and said that he couldn’t see the rate going up in 2022. However, high inflation forced the regulator to take emergency measures and start raising the rate.

As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing the first descending impulse at 0.6876, AUD/USD is correcting upwards to reach 0.6925 and may later form another descending impulse towards 0.6886. Later, the market may break the latter level and continue trading within the downtrend with the target at 0.6850, or even extend this structure down to 0.6798. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD Oscillator: after leaving the histogram area, its signal line is about to fall and reach 0.

In the H1 chart, having completed the five-wave structure of the first descending impulse at 0.6875, AUD/USD is correcting upwards to reach 0.6925 and may later fall towards 0.6888, thus forming a new consolidation range between the two latter levels. After that, the instrument may break the range to the downside and form a new descending structure with the target at 0.6850. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving above 80 and may soon start falling to break 50. Later, it may continue moving down to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.