Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 315

Russian citizens may be banned from obtaining Schengen visas to Europe. Gas prices in Europe are breaking new records

US Federal Reserve officials tried to temper expectations for looser policy, and Neel Kashkari said at a conference on Wednesday that the Central Bank is a long way from declaring victory. Kashkari also added that the Central Bank’s proposal to cut interest rates early next year is unrealistic. In an interview with the Financial Times, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also warned that it is too early for the US Central Bank to “declare victory” in the fight against inflation. Amid such comments, stock indices fell slightly. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.08%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.07%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.58%.

The slowdown in US inflation may have opened the door for the Federal Reserve to soften the pace of the coming interest rate hikes, but policymakers left no doubt that they will continue to tighten monetary policy until price pressures are fully resolved. At this point, traders of federal funds futures contracts currently estimate a 66% chance of a 50 basis point hike and a 34% chance of a 75 basis point hike in September. Calling inflation “unacceptably high,” Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he thinks the Fed will probably need to raise the rates to 3.25-3.5% this year and 3.75-4% by the end of next year.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamic. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.05%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.33%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.33%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) was down by 0.55%.

European futures on gas exceeded $2350 per thousand cubic meters. Energy carriers are getting more expensive amid unprecedented heat waves in Europe. High temperatures caused unexpected strain on the region’s power grids, boosting the demand for electricity to power fans and air conditioners. Oil is in increasing demand in this environment as power plants seek alternatives to expensive gas. The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for oil demand this year by 380,000 BPD. Normally, the IEA is negative on oil demand, but rising global natural gas prices may encourage more energy consumers to switch to oil for winter heating.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which usually does its best to boost oil prices, has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2022. OPEC said it expects oil demand to grow by 3.1 million BPD in 2022, down 260,000 BPD from its previous forecast. Goldman Sachs analysts again forecast an oil price above $130 a barrel by the end of the year.

Gold futures closed lower Thursday as a three-week rally in the precious metal’s prices halted, and investors shifted their attention to the rising US stock market rather than safe-haven assets such as gold and the dollar.

The Latvian Saeima declared Russia a sponsor of terrorism. Earlier, the US Senate passed a resolution urging the State Department to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism because of the events in Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria. A ban on issuing Schengen visas to all Russians could be part of the seventh package of European sanctions against Russia. EU countries are now discussing the issue.

Asian markets were trading up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not trading due to the bank holiday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 2.40%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day up by 1.12%. But Asian stocks started declining at the open on Friday amid a new blockage in China. China’s economy is still reeling from a series of economically devastating quarantine restrictions imposed earlier this year, and investors are wary of further such measures. Quarantine in a major commodity center such as Yiwu could cause further problems for China’s industrial sector, which unexpectedly contracted in July.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,207.27 −2.97 (−0.071%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,336.67 +27.16 (+0.082%)

DAX (DE40) 13,694.51 −6.42 (−0.047%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,465.91 −41.20 (−0.55%)

USD Index 105.19 −0.01 (−0.01%)

Important events for today:

– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

11 Aug

Boosting renewable energy use can happen quickly – and reduce harm to low-income people if done thoughtfully

By Erin Baker, UMass Amherst

With many nations making efforts to transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy, SciLine interviewed Erin Baker, a professor of industrial engineering and operations at UMass Amherst. Baker discussed the technological, political and regulatory efforts needed for this transition, as well as ways that our fossil fuel-dependent system disproportionately harms poor communities and communities of color.

The Conversation has collaborated with SciLine to bring you highlights from the discussion, which have been edited for brevity and clarity.

How is our country doing at making the transition to renewable energy?

Erin Baker: There has been amazing technological change over the past 15 years. Offshore wind costs 50% less than it did six years ago. Solar has had a sixfold decrease in costs since 2010. And I think there’s a lot of evidence that technology will adapt and improve if we set the goals and incentives for it.

In terms of policy and regulations, we are moving forward, but we need to be more aggressive. Something that we’re missing and that would be really helpful would be a coherent, federal-level climate policy – whether that is regulatory policy, such as we have for pollution, or a carbon tax or some kind of a cap. The Inflation Reduction Act would be a fantastic starting point if it becomes law.

A good example of something that has been done is President Biden’s move to coordinate and streamline the federal approval process for offshore wind. There are seven federal agencies involved, and having them all separate and moving at their own pace was really difficult for offshore wind energy developers. So Biden has coordinated that, and that’s fantastic. But there are tens of local and state-level agencies and processes that developers still have to go through. It would be really great if we could figure out ways to coordinate and streamline those.

How does our current energy system disproportionately harm poor communities and communities of color?

Erin Baker: Unfortunately, in a lot of different ways. Polluting facilities tend to be located disproportionally in areas that are low income and home to people of color, which can lead to negative health outcomes. Also, in the Texas blackout last winter that killed around 250 people, some research done by my colleague Jay Teneja showed that the long blackouts were four times as likely in communities of color as in predominantly white communities. And, unfortunately, the energy transition won’t necessarily be any more equitable.

For example, it’s common for states to subsidize rooftop solar. And this is good, but the people who get the subsidies are people who own roofs with sun shining on them. People who live in apartments and in cities don’t have access to this, and yet they’re paying for the subsidies. We take the money for the subsidies from everyone, including low-income people, and send them mostly to white, wealthy suburbs.

How can injustices in our energy system be rectified?

Erin Baker: There’s obviously no one solution, but there are a couple of categories of things we can do. One thing that would be really helpful would be to collect data. We have very little data about energy equity issues.

We also need to involve and listen to the traditionally marginalized communities that are most affected by the inequities.

What do you think of the federal and state targets set for offshore wind?

Erin Baker: The Biden administration set a target for 30 gigawatts by 2030. That’s an ambitious goal, since in 2019 the entire world had only 30 GW. But it’s growing rapidly, with global capacity at an astounding 56 GW.

Having this goal of 30 gigawatts helps to organize the supply chain – all the pieces that need to get done for this to happen. We need people who know how to install offshore wind farms. We need special ships. We need planning for transmission. Having these goals really helps to organize all that and make sure all these pieces are in place.

What are the environmental costs and benefits of offshore wind?

Erin Baker: Offshore wind is a really promising technology. The ocean has really good wind resources. And it’s near population centers – we have lots of cities up and down the coasts. Because wind energy is carbon-free, it will provide benefits by reducing emissions and reducing costs.

Some of the work I’ve done has shown that there are billions, and maybe even trillions, of dollars of climate value in offshore wind. We lose between US$10 million and $150 million per year per wind farm by delaying them. We really want to keep these large global environmental benefits in mind as we plan. These can be balanced against local environmental costs and benefits, as well as other factors, like jobs.

In terms of local environmental benefits, when you build an offshore wind farm, the stuff underneath the water ends up creating an artificial reef and actually increasing sea life in that area, which is a benefit.

Negatively, they interfere with bird migrations. Birds don’t actually fly into the wind turbines that much. They fly around them. But if there are a lot of wind farms, that’s a lot of flying around, and that can be hard on the birds. And some animals, like right whales, can get caught in mooring lines if we have floating wind turbines. So, there are local environmental costs. What we need to do is balance these with the global benefits from addressing climate change.

Are you hopeful about our ability to address climate change?

Erin Baker: I am optimistic that we can solve climate change, because humans are very inventive. My work on technological change has shown that once we have a goal or incentive, we tend to improve technologies much faster than we ever predicted. So I think we can be ambitious. We can aim for net-zero by 2030 instead of 2050. And we can solve climate change while at the same time stimulating innovation, fueling growth and increasing quality of life. But we have to set these goals. To access the benefits of the energy transition, we really need to act boldly and decisively.

Watch the full interview to hear more about what’s required for a just, renewable energy transition.

SciLine is a free service based at the nonprofit American Association for the Advancement of Science that helps journalists include scientific evidence and experts in their news stories.

About the Author:

Erin Baker, Professor of Industrial Engineering Applied to Energy Policy, UMass Amherst

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Financial News

11 Aug

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 11.08.2022 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is no longer moving inside the Triangle pattern. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Kijun-Sen at 1.0245 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.0505. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.0155. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.0065.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is testing Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1775.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1835.00. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1735.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1695.00.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is rising within the bullish channel. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 0.6355 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6555. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6240. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6135. To confirm a further uptrend, the price must break the bullish channel’s upside border and fix above 0.6475.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Aug

EURUSD succeeded in rising Overview for 11.08.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD took advantage of the reasons for growth and may yet continue to improve.

The major currency pair remains in good spirits on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0225.

Yesterday, the US released important and long-awaited data on inflation. Although when making monetary decisions the US Fed pays more attention to the other indicators, such as the PCE Price Index, the CPI and Core CPI remain very important for situational awareness and understanding the regulator’s sentiment.

So, the CPI dropped to 8.5% y/y in July after being 9.1% y/y the month before, thus failing to update its 40-year highs. On MoM, inflation didn’t change after gaining 1.3% in June.

The Core CPI added 0.3% m/m after gaining 0.5% m/m the month before.

It’s interesting that after the CPI report was released, inflation expectations in the US based on the breakeven rate dropped to 2-month lows.

The regulator’s policymakers also said that it was too early to triumph over inflation. That’s right: it was the first and maybe the only signal so far that showed some slowdown. It’s not the time to make conclusions.

Nevertheless, the “greenback” found itself under pressure from expectations that the Fed might not continue being aggressive during its September meeting and that the next rate hikes might be rather small.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Aug

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.08.11

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0212
Prev Close: 1.0297
% chg. over the last day: +0.83%

The EUR showed the largest one-day gain against the USD in the last five months. The euro’s strengthening came at the expense of the US Dollar Index as the US inflation data showed a slowdown in growth, raising expectations for a less aggressive rate hike cycle from the Fed. Now the most likely scenario at the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting will be a move to raise rates by 50 bps rather than the 75 bps previously forecast. But some analysts believe the market reaction was an overreaction as the cycle of rate hikes continues, and the Fed will begin reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion a month starting in September.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0286, 1.0247, 1.0146, 1.0112, 1.0035, 1.0000
Resistance levels: 1.0317, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

Yesterday the price sharply jumped on the inflation data and consolidated above the balance. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0247, but with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0317, only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0146 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.08.11:

– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2070
Prev Close: 1.2214
% chg. over the last day: +1.19%

The representative of the Bank of England said yesterday that investors should not expect the return of quantitative easing in the next few years at least. The sentiment of politicians speaks for itself – the UK is preparing for a recession. Even though the Bank of England was one of the first central banks to begin the cycle of raising interest rates, the steps of the increase were too slow, analysts say. As a result, inflation in the country has not yet peaked, and the tightening cycle will stretch over time.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2130, 1.2063, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.2240, 1.2294

From the technical point of view, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD on the hour timeframe is still upward, but now the price has deviated strongly from the average, we should wait for a pullback. The MACD indicator has turned positive. At the moment, it is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2130, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2240, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2063 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 135.04
Prev Close: 132.86
% chg. over the last day: -1.64%

The dollar fell on Wednesday, showing the biggest decline against the yen since March 2020 after US inflation data. However, do not take this fall as a start of the Japanese currency. Fundamentally, the US Federal Reserve is tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates, while the Bank of Japan has a soft monetary policy, and no changes are planned before the end of the year. So, a huge difference in interest rates (+2.5% vs. -0.1%) will encourage USD/JPY quotes to grow in the mid-term.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 132.51, 131.08, 130.85
Resistance levels: 134.36, 135.55, 136.02, 137.13

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is still bullish. The price has formed an accumulation zone above the 134.36 level, so a test of this zone is very likely. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 132.51, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is possible to consider the level of resistance 134.36, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative, as fundamentally, USD/JPY quotes are inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 135.55, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2887
Prev Close: 1.2775
% chg. over the last day: -0.87%

The slowdown in US inflation reduces the likelihood of a 75 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada next month. Swap markets suggest there is about a 45% chance that Bank of Canada officials will raise borrowing costs by three-quarters of a percentage point in their September 7 decision. Next week, Canada will release inflation data for July. If inflation slows or stays the same, Tiff Macklem and his officials may opt for a smaller rate hike. Last week, though, a senior strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank indicated that the Bank of Canada is likely to raise rates another 0.75% before starting to lower the rate hike.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2766, 1.2701
Resistance levels: 1.2817, 1.2871, 1.2918, 1.2965

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair trend has changed to bearish. The price has consolidated below the priority change level. The MACD indicator has become negative, and the sellers’ pressure is still present. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level 1.2766, but only with confirmation and short targets. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level 1.2817 or 1.2871, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the 1.2918 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Aug

Stock markets in the US and Europe reacted positively to the slowdown in inflation in the US

By JustForex

The US stock market rose Wednesday after the release of inflation data for July, which showed that price pressures eased. The overall Consumer Price Index for July was 8.5%, down from the 8.7% expected by economists. Investors now see a 50 basis point rate hike as the most likely scenario for the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Stock indices jumped sharply on the news, while the dollar index saw its biggest one-day drop in 5 months. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.63%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.13%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.89%.

Most of the decline in inflation in July was due to the drop in gasoline prices, which fell by 7.7% for the month. Other categories also saw significant declines, including prices of airline tickets, used cars and trucks, and clothing. On the other hand, some analysts are inclined to think that markets have overreacted positively to the slowdown in inflation because the Fed is still in a cycle of raising rates and will begin cutting the balance sheet next month. Also, according to a new Bloomberg Economics model, inflation in the US now consists of four factors: supply, demand, energy prices, and monetary policy. This model showed that lower energy costs and a tougher Fed stance were the main factors behind the slowdown to 8.5% last month. At the same time, rising demand combined with supply constraints continued to put upward pressure on inflation.

Equity markets in Europe were also up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 1.23%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.52%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.49%, and Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.25%.

The US Energy Information Administration reported a second straight week of five million barrels increase in crude oil inventories. But the agency also mentioned that gasoline inventories fell by about five million barrels, which helped offset the bearish sentiment hanging over the market. A lower dollar on the back of slowing inflation led to a rise in oil prices. But there is a vicious circle here that many do not notice. Inflation in the US has slowed due to falling oil and gasoline prices. This caused the dollar index to fall, causing oil prices to rise again. Thus, if the dollar index continues to decline, oil prices will continue to rise, which will have the opposite effect and cause a new acceleration of inflation in the US.

Gold hit a 5-week high on declining US inflation. Gold has an inverse correlation to the dollar index and government bond yields, which fell sharply yesterday after the CPI data. But it should be noted that usually, in a cycle of monetary tightening through higher interest rates, the national currency and government bond yields rise.

Asian markets traded lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.65%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.96%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day down by 0.53%.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely raise its rate by another 50 basis points in August. Nevertheless, the deteriorating economic picture and rapidly falling home prices suggest that investors may see a downward revision to the interest rate trajectory forecast. As the RBNZ is increasingly seen as a test case for other central banks, global markets will be watching closely for any dovish bias from the bank.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,210.23 +87.76 (+2.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,309.84 +535.43 (+1.63%)

DAX (DE40) 13,700.93 +165.96 (+1.23%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,507.11 +18.96 (+0.25%)

USD Index 106.21 −1.16 (−1.09%)

Important events for today:

– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

11 Aug

Is the worst over for US stocks?

By ForexTime

The S&P 500 index is widely used as the benchmark to gauge how overall US stocks are performing.

And much has already been made about the selloff that had persisted through the first half of this year, driven by fears that the Fed will send US interest rates soaring (which it has, by 225 basis points since March).

Since posting a record high early this year, this blue-chip index then fell by as much as 23.55% on June 16th, crossing over into ‘bear market’ territory.

However, since mid-June, the S&P 500 has climbed by 14.8%. Yesterday (Wednesday, August 10th), this index posted its highest closing price since May.

The question now that’s being hotly debated now is whether the worst of the US stock market’s selloff is already over.

And markets are watching closely whether we’ll see a key piece of technical evidence on the S&P 500 today that could help substantially address that very question.

But first … let’s try and understand what may be contributing to the S&P 500’s gains over the past couple of months.

What’s driving this rebound in the S&P 500?

Arguably, the primary reason is that markets believe that the Fed has done the largest chunks of its rate hikes already.

Since March, the Fed has already hiked by 225 basis points. At the time of writing, markets think there are only 125 basis points in hikes left in the Fed’s tank, to be triggered between next month and March 2023.

After that, markets think the US central bank then has to start unwinding its rate hikes (i.e. lower interest rates) sometime in the middle of next year, so as to either avoid sending the US into a full-blown recession, or at least support the demand that the Fed has already gone about destroying in the name of quelling red-hot inflation.

Recall that, generally speaking, riskier assets such as stocks dislike the thought of US interest rates moving higher.

However, if the worst of those fears (markets at one point thought that the Fed would trigger a gargantuan 100 bps hike) had already been priced in, any relief from such perceived worst-case scenarios should translate into a recovery for risk assets.

Hence, investors have been emboldened by the above narrative, and have been rewarded (so far) for “buying the dip”.

Which brings us back to the main question …

Is the worst of this year’s selloff over for the S&P 500?

And here’s the important technical indicator that could confirm whether that the mid-June low of 3637.3 would be the lowest point for the S&P 500 for this latest selloff.

The S&P 500 has to register a daily close above 50% Fibonacci retracement level!

Looking back at the chart above, the S&P 500 has already managed to breach the 4228.6 line, which marks the halfway point from its peak-to-trough plummet in the first half of this year.

According to data compiled by CFRA (research firm) and S&P Global (ratings, analytics, and market intelligence agency), in 18 of the 19 bear markets witnessed since World War 2 (with the exception being the bear market of 1973-1974), the S&P 500 goes on to make a recovery/mark a new bull run once it closes back above its 50% Fibonacci retracement line.

In other words, once the S&P 500 secures a daily close above 4228.6, market participants can then say with greater confidence that the market bottom is indeed in the past.

But wait, there’s more …

Also, the S&P 500 has already posted a higher-high above the late-May cycle peak of 4205.7.

Such a technical event may carry less weight compared to a daily close above the 50% Fib retracement level, but can be used as a point in deciphering whether the S&P 500’s downtrend has been broken.

But let’s be careful.

To be clear, markets never move in a single, straight line.

And also from a technical perspective, the S&P 500 may be due for a pullback, given that its 14-day relative strength index is now flirting with the 70 mark that denotes ‘overbought’ conditions.

So it’s still entirely possible that the S&P 500 falters back below 4228.6, even after a daily close above that mark.

Instead, the idea is that the S&P 500 will not fall lower than the mid-June bottom of 3637.3 if the index posts a daily close above that 50% retracement level of 4228.6 (or so suggest the proponents of such a signal).

S&P 500 still at the mercy of the Fed/US economy

Risk assets have in the past two months clearly basked in the thought that the incoming Fed rate hikes would be fewer and smaller from here on out.

Such a notion was emboldened by yesterday’s (Wednesday, August 10th) lower-than-expected headline US inflation print.

The consumer price index (CPI) “only” rose by 8.5%. That is lower than almost all economists’ had forecasted (at least those surveyed by Bloomberg), and also lower than June’s year-on-year CPI advance of 9.1%.

Those participating in recent gains appear to harbour the belief that US inflation has peaked, which in turn may allow the Fed to step away from being so aggressive in its battle against multi-decade high inflation.

And so, it remains to be seen whether US inflation has truly peaked. Also, whether a full-blown, risk-off recession could undermine the S&P 500’s attempts at a full recovery.

More confirmation could be had at these upcoming economic events:

August 25-27: Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium
(where central bankers gather to talk about issues pertaining to the economy and monetary policy. More clues about the Fed’s view on inflation/rate hikes?)
September 2: US August nonfarm payrolls report
(can the US jobs market stay resilient enough to handle US interest rates going much higher?)
September 13: US August CPI release
(a print below July’s 8.5% may confirm that inflation in the world’s largest economy has indeed peaked)
September 21: FOMC meeting
(Fed to hike by 75bps? Or “just” 50bps?)

So stay alert and watch this space.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

10 Aug

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 10.08.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is still falling towards 1.0187. After that, the instrument may grow to reach 1.0215 and then consolidate above 1.0187. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 1.0128, or even extend this structure down to 1.0080.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is still consolidating around 1.2088. Today, the pair may fall towards 1.2050 and then form one more ascending wave to return to 1.2088. Later, the market may resume falling with the target at 1.2002, or even extend this structure down to 1.1970.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still consolidating around 134.94. Possibly, the pair may start a new decline with the target at 134.18 and then resume trading upwards to reach 135.75. After that, the instrument may fall towards 132.55.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF continues falling towards 0.9506; it has already completed the descending structure at 0.9506 along with the correction up to 0.9544. After that, the instrument may resume trading downwards to return to 0.9506 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.9588.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD continues falling to break 0.6900 and may later continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 0.6797.

BRENT

Brent has finished the ascending structure at 99.90; right now, it is falling to break 96.44 and may later continue trading downwards to reach 93.00. After that, the instrument may start another growth with the target at 98.88.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has completed the ascending wave at 1800.00. Possibly, today the metal may fall towards 1752.00 and then resume trading upwards with the first target at 1822.40.

S&P 500

The S&P index has reached 4111.0; right now, it is consolidating above it. Possibly, the asset may extend this descending wave down to 4075.7. Later, the market may resume trading upwards to reach 4211.0 and then start a new decline with the first target at 3919.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Aug

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC). Overview for 10.08.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

The BTC dropped to $23,000. Yesterday’s trading session was emotionally exhausting – market players were selling and the overall picture was more negative than positive.

Two days ago, the BTC was going to test $24,400. However, market conditions failed: American exchanges started falling. Technically, it was explained by the fact that their previous growth had no solid base, but a nail-biting wait for the US CPI data release and a possible recession made investors lock in profits.

Wednesday is a very important day. If the CPI data from the US does show a slowdown in inflation, stock exchanges will rise, and the crypto market will follow. Reasonable inflation numbers might prevent the US Fed from continuing its aggressive policy in the near future – it’s a good signal for capital markets.

The capitalisation of the crypto market is about $1.084 trillion; the fear index has significantly dropped.

Iran: first steps in crypto

Iran made the first import order paid with cryptocurrency worth $10 million. Possibly, in a couple of months, likely by the end of September, cryptos will be more widely used in the country’s trade – it will make the process less dependable of exchange rate fluctuations.

Core Scientific is still selling BTC

In July, Core Scientific mined 1,221 Bitcoins, but sold 1,975 tokens to cover its capital expenses. By selling crypto, the company earned $44 million; the average price was $22,000 per coin. The company needs this money to continue expanding its mining facilities.

SEC will monitor exchanges

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission initiated investigations into operations of all crypto exchanged operating on the American soil. It’s about 40 platforms, including Binance. The regulator’s major accusation is possible violations of the law.

Article By RoboForex.com

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

10 Aug

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.08.10

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0191
Prev Close: 1.0212
% chg. over the last day: +0.20%

Inflation data will be released in the US today. Analysts expect consumer prices to stay about the same, indicating a slowdown in price growth. But if the data turns out to be worse than forecasted and inflation rises again, it may boost the US dollar index on expectations of further aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0200, 1.0146, 1.0112, 1.0035, 1.0000
Resistance levels: 1.0233, 1.0264, 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hour time frame is bullish. The price is still forming a wide volatile balance with the borders of 1.0112-1.0284. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best to consider on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0200. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0233 or 1.0264, but only after additional confirmation and only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0112 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.08.10:

– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2079
Prev Close: 1.2074
% chg. over the last day: -0.04%

According to a SocGen strategist, the British pound could fall below $1.20 next month as the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike continues to outpace the Bank of England. According to the analyst, the Bank of England’s recent recession warning, combined with growing expectations of another 75 basis points US interest rate hike, could put the pound at risk of falling below $1.20. The pound has fallen 10% against the dollar since the beginning of the year, ranking among the three worst G-10 currencies.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2063, 1.2006, 1.1803
Resistance levels: 1.2098, 1.2209, 1.2294

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hour time is bullish, but now the price is forming a balance, where the sellers prevail. The MACD indicator has become inactive. If the price dips below 1.2063 again and stays lower, there will be a trend change. At the moment, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2063, but only with a confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2098, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2063 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.08.10:

– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 134.84
Prev Close: 135.13
% chg. over the last day: +0.22%

In Japan, the Producer Price Index, which shows the factory inflation rate, declined from 9.4% to 8.6% annually. This indicates that the consumer inflation rate is also set to decline, which is bad for the Japanese currency as the Bank of Japan, on the contrary, aims to raise the consumer price level. Thus, traders should not expect any changes in the monetary policy of the central bank of Japan in the direction of tightening.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 134.29, 133.42, 132.12, 131.37, 130.85
Resistance levels: 135.29, 136.03, 137.11

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is close to changing to the uptrend. The price is now trading at the priority change level but has not yet consolidated higher. A break of 135.29 will change the trend. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 134.29 or 133.42, but with additional confirmation. Resistance levels of 135.29 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative, as the price has already tested it.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 135.29, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.08.10:

– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2845
Prev Close: 1.2883
% chg. over the last day: +0.29%

Currently, the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve keep interest rates at 2.5%, so parity prevails on the USD/CAD currency pair with a short-term shift of initiative from the dollar to the Canadian and vice versa. The labor market remains strong in both the US and Canada, which leaves room for central banks to raise interest rates further. Therefore, the only imbalance in the USD/CAD quotes will be oil. It is well known that the Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so a rise in oil prices always gives confidence to the Canadian.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2800, 1.2786
Resistance levels: 1.2895, 1.2926, 1.3006, 1.3085, 1.3154

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair trend has changed to bullish. At the moment, the price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the volatility has declined in anticipation of inflation and oil reserves data. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2800, but only with confirmation and short targets. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2895 or 1.2926, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates below the 1.2786 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.08.10:

– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

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