Archive for Financial News – Page 30

10 Dec

USD/JPY Pauses as Yen Resists Downward Pressure

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair is consolidating near 156.57 on Wednesday, pausing after three consecutive days of gains. This stability comes despite a notable shift in rhetoric from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who stated the central bank is drawing closer to sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target – a strong signal that a policy tightening move could be imminent.

The market is now actively pricing in the possibility of a rate hike as early as next week’s BoJ meeting. Investors’ primary focus will be on Governor Ueda’s post-meeting comments, which are expected to shape the policy outlook for 2025.

The yen’s broader weakness is being fuelled by growing concerns over Japan’s public finances, exacerbated by expanded fiscal spending under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration. Furthermore, the yawning interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies continues to incentivise short positions against the yen, which remains one of the world’s lowest-yielding currencies.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY maintains its bullish structure following a strong impulse that propelled the price from 154.30 to the key resistance zone of 157.20–157.90. The pair is currently consolidating just below the 157.20 level, where selling pressure has previously emerged.

The price holding above the middle Bollinger Band confirms buyers retain overall control. The expansion of the upper band indicates elevated volatility and suggests the market is gathering strength for another attempt to breach resistance.

A decisive breakout and consolidation above 157.20 would open the path towards the 157.90–158.00 area. Should a correction unfold, the nearest significant support sits at 155.60. A break below this level would signal a deeper pullback, potentially targeting the major demand zone and the lower Bollinger Band near 154.30.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is undergoing a pullback after its recent surge to 157.20. The decline has found tentative support near the middle Bollinger Band, with the pair attempting to stabilise around 156.50.

The near-term structure remains bullish, supported by the price’s position above the middle Bollinger Band. Dynamic support is forming in the 156.00–156.10 zone, aligned with the indicator’s lower band. The Stochastic oscillator has turned down from overbought territory, confirming the current short-term corrective phase.

For the uptrend to resume, buyers must reclaim the 157.20 level, which would pave the way for a test of 157.90. Conversely, a sustained break below 156.00 would be the first clear sign of bullish exhaustion, increasing the probability of a deeper decline towards 155.60.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is at a critical juncture, caught between bullish technical momentum and a shifting fundamental backdrop for the yen. While the pair’s uptrend remains technically intact, the impending BoJ decision introduces significant event risk. A hawkish shift from the central bank could catalyse a sharp correction. In the near term, the 157.20 resistance and 156.00 support levels are pivotal; a breakout from this range will determine the next directional move.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
09 Dec

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged as expected. Natural gas prices fell by 7% on Monday

By JustMarkets 

By the end of Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) declined by 0.45%, the S&P500 (US500) fell by 0.35%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.14%. Investors remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s decision on Wednesday: the probability of a 25 bp rate cut is estimated at around 90%, but inflation concerns make markets more restrained about the trajectory of rates in 2026. On the corporate front, deals and rating changes stood out. Warner Bros. Discovery shares rose by 4.4% after a competing offer from Paramount Skydance, while Netflix fell by 3.4%. Tesla dropped 3.4% after a downgrade. Attention also shifted to upcoming reports from Broadcom and Oracle, with Broadcom shares already hitting a record high on news of talks with Microsoft about chip production.

European stock markets traded mixed on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.07%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.08%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.23%. In Europe, ECB’s Isabel Schnabel stated that she agrees with market expectations that the central bank’s next step could be a rate hike.

WTI crude prices fell more than 2% and traded below $59 per barrel, approaching a monthly low. Prices were pressured by a stronger dollar and weaker global fuel demand expectations amid weakness in the transport and industrial sectors. An additional downside came from EIA data showing US crude inventories rose by 0.57 million barrels, reinforcing signals of oversupply.

The US natural gas prices fell nearly 7% on Monday to $4.9 per MMBtu after strong gains last week, as prognoses of milder weather weakened seasonal demand expectations. Record production of about 109.7 bcf per day and comfortable inventory levels added pressure, indicating no short‑term supply risks.
Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.18%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.87%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.23%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed down 0.12%.

The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.2% to 25,765 points, ending a two‑day rally, pressured by the financial, real estate, and consumer sectors. The market remained cautious amid persistent deflation risks in China and anticipation of key policy signals from the upcoming Politburo meeting and annual economic conference.
The Australian dollar strengthened after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the refinancing rate at 3.60% for the third consecutive time. The regulator noted persistent inflationary pressures and a tight labor market, emphasizing that future steps depend on data. Markets now estimate the probability of a rate hike by May 2026 at about 50/50, while most economists believe the easing cycle has ended.

The New Zealand dollar consolidated near a five‑week high, supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has ended its easing cycle. Although the regulator recently cut the rate by 25 bp, its projections suggest only a 20% chance of another cut in 2026, given easing inflation and improved economic prospects. New RBNZ Governor Anna Breman emphasized the priority of controlling inflation while supporting growth and employment. Markets now expect the next move to be a rate hike, not before late 2026. Additional support for the currency comes from US dollar weakness ahead of the anticipated Fed rate cut.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,846.51 −23.89 (−0.35%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,739.32 −215.67 (−0.45%)

DAX (DE40) 24,046.01 +17.87 (+0.07%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,645.09 −21.92 (−0.23%)

USD Index 99.10 +0.11% (+0.11%)

News feed for: 2025.12.09

  • Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2); – AUD, AU200 (HIGH)
  • Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2); – AUD, AU200 (HIGH)
  • Australia RBA Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2); – AUD, AU200 (MED)
  • Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
  • Mexican Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2); – MXN (MED)
  • US ADP Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (MED)
  • UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 16:15 (GMT+2); – GBP (LOW)
  • US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
  • New Zealand RBNZ Gov Breman Speaks at 23:10 (GMT+2). – NZD (LOW)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
09 Dec

Gold on Pause Awaiting the Fed’s Verdict

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold is trading in a holding pattern near 4,200 USD per ounce on Tuesday, as markets remain in a state of suspended animation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

While a 25-basis-point rate cut is almost fully priced in, investors will scrutinise the updated economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference for clarity on the policy trajectory into 2026 and beyond.

Market-implied probabilities currently assign an 87% likelihood to a cut today. However, expectations for future easing have moderated, with just two rounds of cuts now anticipated for next year, down from three a week ago.

Before the Fed announcement, traders will also assess the latest JOLTS job openings data for additional labour market insights.

In a supportive development for the metal, the People’s Bank of China expanded its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month, bringing its total holdings to 74.12 million troy ounces.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD continues to consolidate in a sideways range following its late-November advance. The price is currently trading below the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting a gradual loss of bullish momentum. The upper band has flattened, confirming the consolidation phase within the 4,163–4,240 USD zone.

Support at 4,163 USD remains critical, with the price having rebounded from this level multiple times in recent sessions. A decisive break below would open the way to the next significant support near 4,136 USD, which aligns with the lower Bollinger Band.

Resistance is clearly defined at 4,240 USD. A sustained move above this level would provide the first strong signal for a renewed upward move, initially targeting 4,265 USD.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, gold shows a near-term bearish bias after failing to break above resistance at 4,240 USD. The price is consistently positioned below the middle Bollinger Band, with the lower band reinforcing the selling pressure. Local support has solidified around 4,163 USD, a level tested repeatedly in recent trading.

The Stochastic oscillator remains near oversold territory, indicating weak momentum, though a clear reversal signal has yet to emerge.

Should buyers defend the 4,163 USD support and propel the price back above the middle Bollinger Band, a recovery toward 4,200 USD and later 4,240 USD would become likely. Conversely, a breakdown below 4,163 USD would signal a deeper corrective move toward 4,136–4,100 USD.

Conclusion

Gold remains in a state of cautious equilibrium as traders await the Fed’s policy signal and updated economic forecasts. While underlying physical demand – particularly from central banks – continues to provide a supportive floor, the technical picture reflects consolidation with a slight near-term bearish tilt.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
08 Dec

Canadian dollar hits 2‑month high. Mexican peso rises on carry trade appeal

By JustMarkets 

By Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.22% (weekly +0.79%), the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.19% (weekly +0.85%), and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.43% higher (weekly +1.82%). Support came from fresh data: the PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in September vs. August, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved for the first time in five months. This strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut of 25 bp, with probability around 87%. Large‑cap stocks mostly rose: Amazon 0.7%, Alphabet 1.3%, Meta 0.7%, Broadcom 2.7%, Tesla 0.4%, while Apple was unchanged and Nvidia fell 0.2%.

The Canadian dollar strengthened above 1.39 per USD, reaching a two‑month high, supported by strong labor market data and US dollar weakness. November unemployment unexpectedly fell to 6.5%, with the number of unemployed down 80,000 to 1.5 million, signaling an easing domestic slowdown. This outcome increased the likelihood of a Bank of Canada pause after October’s rate cut, while expectations of a near‑certain Fed cut in December and further easing in 2026 pressured the dollar and supported CAD.

Mexican peso firmed to 18.16 per USD, its highest since July 2024, amid near‑certain expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, which weakened the dollar and boosted EM carry trade appeal. Additional support came from a stable labor market (unemployment at 2.6%), an October trade surplus, and Banxico’s lowered inflation expectations, maintaining positive real rates and attracting capital inflows.

European equities traded mixed on Friday, but posted a second week of gains. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.61% (weekly +1.25%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.09% (weekly +0.45%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.35% (weekly +2.23%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.45% (weekly -0.55%). Automakers Mercedes‑Benz, Volkswagen, and BMW showed solid gains again. Defense firms Rheinmetall and Leonardo ended the week higher amid fading expectations of a quick end to the war in Ukraine.

Silver prices rose above $58, nearing all‑time highs, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and renewed investor interest. Slowing private‑sector hiring and corporate layoff data reinforced confidence in easing. Additional drivers included low exchange inventories, active ETF accumulation, a projected 2025 supply deficit, and strong demand from solar and other green industries.

The natural gas prices exceeded $5/MMBtu, hitting a three‑year high and rising 70% from mid‑October lows amid surging export demand. European countries continued to reduce reliance on Russian gas, while US LNG exports in November rose 40% to 10.7 million tons. Further support came from cold‑winter expectations in the US Northeast and Great Lakes, while EIA data showed utilities withdrew 12 bcf of gas in the week ending November 21, slightly above expectations.

Asian equities mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.34%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.91%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.54%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.24% over five days.

Offshore yuan held near 7.06 per USD, as strong external demand offset weak domestic activity. November exports rose 5.9% y/y on improved US relations, while imports grew just 1.9%, signaling sluggish domestic demand. The trade surplus widened to $111.7bn, a five‑month high, supporting GDP growth prospects toward the 5% target. Investors await inflation data to gauge the next steps in China’s monetary policy.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,870.40 +13.28 (+0.19%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,954.99 +104.05 (+0.22%)

DAX (DE40) 24,028.14 +146.11 (+0.61%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,667.01 −43.86 (−0.45%)

USD Index 99.99 0% (0%)

News feed for: 2025.12.08

  • Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
  • China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (LOW)
  • German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2). – EUR (LOW)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
08 Dec

EUR/USD Gains as Market Focus Fixes on the Fed

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair opened the week on a positive note, rising to 1.1653. The move was fuelled by mounting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this Wednesday, which continues to weigh on the US dollar. Markets are currently pricing in an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction, a significant increase from the 67% odds seen just one month ago.

However, uncertainty clouds the policy path beyond this week. A “hawkish cut” scenario also remains plausible, where Chair Jerome Powell could deliver the expected easing while simultaneously signalling a more cautious, data-dependent approach for 2026.

The data calendar will add to the volatility, starting with the delayed JOLTS job openings report for October, due Tuesday. This release will provide a crucial update on labour market tightness, including hiring, layoffs, and quit rates.

Globally, monetary policy decisions from the central banks of Australia, Brazil, Canada, and Switzerland will also be in focus this week, with all four expected to hold their benchmark rates steady.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD maintains a clear upward bias, trading just below a key resistance level at 1.1682. The pair’s position above the middle Bollinger Band confirms the dominance of buyers. The gradual expansion of the upper band indicates rising volatility and suggests the market is preparing for a potential breakout attempt.

A decisive close above 1.1682 would be a significant bullish signal, opening the path towards the next major resistance zone of 1.1770–1.1780. Conversely, should a pullback occur, the nearest notable support is at 1.1547. A break below this level would signal a deeper corrective move towards the lower Bollinger Band.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is consolidating after a strong impulse that tested the 1.1680 resistance. It is currently holding above a key local support level at 1.1635, from which the most recent recovery originated.

The Stochastic oscillator is in overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a near-term pause or shallow pullback. Despite this, the broader H1 structure remains moderately bullish, with the price trading above the middle Bollinger Band and its lower band providing dynamic support.

A sustained breakout above 1.1680 would confirm a continuation of the uptrend, targeting 1.1720 and potentially 1.1750. On the downside, a failure to hold 1.1635 would be the first sign of weakening momentum, potentially triggering a correction towards the next demand zone at 1.1600–1.1580.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is trading with a firm bid ahead of a pivotal Fed meeting. While the expectation of a rate cut is providing near-term support, the central bank’s forward guidance will be critical in determining the sustainability of the rally. Technically, the pair is at an inflection point, with a break above 1.1680/82 needed to unlock the next leg higher, while a hold below 1.1635 would suggest a period of consolidation or correction is due.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
05 Dec

Natural gas price nears $5/MMBtu. German DAX hits three-week high

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.07% on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.11%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 0.10%. The US indices finished Thursday with mixed to slightly higher results as markets awaited the Fed’s decision, having generally already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut. Weak hiring data from ADP and a rise in announced layoffs bolstered expectations for policy easing, although initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell, giving a mixed signal on the labor market. Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 191 thousand, the lowest level since September 2022. The figures confirm that the labor market is cooling due to weaker hiring. The number of continuing claims also slightly declined, remaining above post-pandemic recovery levels.

European stocks traded mixed on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.79%, the French CAC 40 (FR 40) closed up by 0.43%, the Spanish IBEX 35 Index (ES35) gained 0.97%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher by 0.19%. The Frankfurt DAX reached a three-week high, outperforming most other European markets. The main driver was the auto sector after Bank of America upgraded its 2026 prognoses and EU officials hinted at a potential retreat from a complete ban on internal combustion engines. Against this backdrop, shares of Porsche, Daimler Truck, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen saw solid gains, supporting the index’s overall rise.

WTI crude oil prices held around $59.7 per barrel on Friday, remaining at a two-week high amid heightened geopolitical risks. Markets reacted to signals of potential US measures against Venezuela and the lack of progress in Ukraine negotiations, supporting supply concerns. Expectations of US rate cuts, which could stimulate demand, provided additional support to prices, although worries about weak consumption and supply surplus limited gains.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices fell to $4.95/MMBtu, correcting from a three-year peak after EIA data showed higher-than-expected inventory levels. Despite this, prices remain approximately 70% above October lows thanks to rising export demand: US LNG exports in November increased by 40% year-over-year, and Europe is accelerating its move away from Russian gas, planning to completely cease LNG imports from the Russian Federation by 2027.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.33%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.43%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 0.68%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.27%.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,857.12 +7.40 (+0.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,850.94 −31.96 (−0.07%)

DAX (DE40) 23,882.03 +188.32 (+0.79%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,710.87 +18.80 (+0.19%)

USD Index 99.05 +0.20% (+0.20%)

News feed for: 2025.12.05

  • Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2) – CAD (HIGH);
  • US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
05 Dec

Gold Steady Near 4,200 USD as Markets Await Key Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices held close to 4,200 USD per ounce on Friday, with investors focused on a significant, delayed inflation report ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision.

All attention is on the release of the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The data could be decisive in shaping expectations for the timing and scale of upcoming monetary easing.

Earlier in the week, further signs of a cooling labour market emerged. ADP reported an unexpected decline of 32,000 in private sector payrolls, while the Challenger report recorded 71,000 layoffs in November – bringing the year-to-date total to nearly 1.17 million.

This combination of soft employment figures has reinforced investor conviction that the Fed will cut rates as early as next week, with the market-implied probability now standing at approximately 87%.

Adding to the dovish narrative are reports that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett may succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May. Markets interpret this as a potential tilt towards more aggressive policy easing.

Despite a moderately lower weekly close, gold remains well-supported heading into the critical data release.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after its recent advance toward 4,220–4,230 USD. The price remains above the middle Bollinger Band, with the upper band turning slightly upward, suggesting an attempt to recover from recent weakness.

Key resistance is around 4,265 USD, a level the market has repeatedly tested without securing a decisive breakout. A sustained move above this level would clear the path towards 4,300 USD and beyond.

Immediate support is marked at 4,163 USD. A break below this level would increase selling pressure and raise the risk of a decline towards the next demand zone near 4,136 USD. A close below 4,136 USD would signal a transition into a deeper corrective phase.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD is trading within a tightening range between 4,188 USD and 4,220 USD, reflecting mixed short-term momentum. The middle Bollinger Band is providing near-term equilibrium, confirming the absence of a clear directional bias.

The upper Bollinger Band is capping advances near 4,220–4,225 USD, with several rejections from this zone indicating local overbought conditions. The lower band is offering support around 4,185–4,190 USD.

A sustained move above 4,220 USD would signal a resumption of bullish momentum, initially targeting 4,235–4,240 USD, and potentially 4,265 USD. Conversely, a break below 4,185 USD would open the way towards 4,163 USD. A loss of this support could intensify corrective pressure and expose the 4,136 USD level.

Conclusion

Gold remains in a holding pattern near 4,200 USD as traders await the delayed PCE inflation report. While labour market softness has bolstered expectations for Fed easing, the technical picture reflects consolidation within a defined range. A decisive reaction to today’s data is likely to set the tone ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, with a break above 4,265 USD opening the door to further gains, while a drop below 4,163 USD risks a deeper correction.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
04 Dec

GBP/USD Extends Gains as Interest Rate Divergence Captures Focus

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair advanced decisively to 1.3338, marking its highest level since late October. Sterling found support from an upward revision of the UK’s November Services PMI, while the US dollar remained under broad pressure ahead of an anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

The UK Services PMI rose to 51.3 from a preliminary 50.5, remaining firmly in expansionary territory above the 50.0 threshold. The Composite PMI followed suit, climbing to 51.2.

Despite this improvement, S&P Global noted underlying softness, with business activity growth slowing and employment declining at the fastest pace since February. Furthermore, output price inflation fell to its lowest level since January 2021.

Markets continue to price in a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Bank of England in December. However, expectations are that the central bank will then enter a prolonged pause, wary of the persistent risk of renewed inflation.

Conversely, the US dollar remains on the back foot. Markets have fully priced in a third consecutive Fed rate cut for December, with at least two additional cuts anticipated in 2026. This widening interest rate differential is enhancing the pound’s relative appeal.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD continues its confident upward trajectory, approaching a key technical resistance level at 1.3354. The price is holding well above the middle Bollinger Band, confirming the dominance of the bullish trend. The expansion of the upper band signals rising volatility and sustained buying interest.

A decisive breakout and close above 1.3354 would open the path for an extension of the rally towards the next resistance zone around 1.3363–1.3380. Should a pullback occur, the nearest significant support is situated at 1.3280. A breach of this level would suggest a deeper correction, potentially targeting the lower Bollinger Band.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, GBPUSD maintains an upward bias following a powerful impulse that pushed the price to the 1.3350–1.3360 resistance zone. The pair is now correcting, remaining above the local support of 1.3179, from which the growth began earlier. The upper Bollinger Band has turned down after a sharp expansion, indicating short-term market overheating and increasing the likelihood of a pullback. Nevertheless, the structure remains bullish: holding the price above the middle Bollinger Band supports a retest of 1.3350.

A breakout of the 1.3350–1.3360 resistance will open the way to the next target in the 1.3400 area. A consolidation below 1.3179 will be the first signal for a deeper correction, with targets in the 1.3120-1.3140 demand area.

Conclusion

GBP/USD strength is driven by a clear divergence in central bank policy expectations, favouring sterling in the near term. Technically, the pair is in a firm uptrend but is testing a critical resistance level at 1.3354. A successful breakout here could accelerate gains, while a rejection may trigger a consolidation or correction towards 1.3280. The upcoming Fed and BoE meetings will be pivotal in determining whether this momentum can be sustained.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
04 Dec

The US labor market is showing signs of job losses

By JustMarkets 

By Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.86%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.30%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.20% higher. Markets increased bets on Fed easing after the ADP report showed an unexpected decline of 32,000 jobs. The financial sector led strongly: Wells Fargo and Citi shares gained 3.5% each, while UnitedHealth jumped 4.7% thanks to improved expectations for costs and demand. Among tech companies, Marvell stood out, rising 7.9% on an optimistic prognosis for data centers and AI hardware, while Microsoft fell 2.5% after temporary concerns over reduced quotas for AI products.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.39 per USD, reaching a monthly high thanks to US dollar weakness and signs of Canadian economic resilience. Stronger‑than‑expected GDP growth increased the likelihood of a pause in the Bank of Canada easing. Additional support came from rising oil and copper prices, which improved trade conditions despite weak manufacturing PMI.

Mexican peso firmed to 18.27 per USD, its highest since July, amid US dollar weakness and a resilient domestic labor market. Mexico’s low unemployment rate of 2.6% reduces the need for Banxico to ease policy quickly, supporting the attractiveness of high real interest rates.

European equities traded mixed on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.07%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.16%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.68%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.10% lower. European markets were buoyed by optimism over Fed easing after weak US labor data, despite mixed ECB signals: Lagarde noted inflation nearing target, while Lane warned of risks of acceleration. Corporate news drove gains: ASML rose by 2.6% after rating upgrades, Inditex surged 9% on strong results, and Stellantis and Airbus climbed 7.7% and 1.5% respectively.

Swiss franc held near 0.80 per USD, close to multi‑year highs ahead of the SNB meeting. Inflation in Switzerland was unexpectedly low again, with core prices falling to a four‑year low, complicating the central bank’s task. With rates already at 0%, the SNB remains cautious about easing, wary of financial stability risks, though it leaves the option open. Policymakers signaled that a return to negative rates is unlikely, but policy adjustments may be needed if the expected moderate inflation rebound fails to materialize.

WTI oil rose above $59/barrel amid geopolitical tensions: Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities and lack of progress in talks with Moscow heightened supply risks. Additional uncertainty came from the US signals toward Venezuela’s oil sector. However, gains were capped by signs of weak demand and rising US crude and product inventories (EIA data), pointing to potential oversupply.

Asian equities traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.14%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.70%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 1.28%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.18%.

The Australian dollar climbed to 0.661 USD, a two‑month high, supported by unexpectedly strong domestic spending, which boosted expectations of another RBA rate hike in 2026. Household spending in October rose 1.3% versus 0.6% projections, reinforcing tightening prospects. At next week’s meeting, markets still expect the rate to remain at 3.6%, but the RBA’s tone may turn more hawkish amid overheating risks and persistent inflationary pressures.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,849.72 +20.35 (+0.30%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,882.90 +408.44 (+0.86%)

DAX (DE40) 23,693.71 −17.15 (−0.072%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,692.07 −9.73 (−0.10%)

USD Index 99.32 −0.10% (−0.10%)

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By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
03 Dec

USD/JPY Declines as Market Focus Shifts to Bank of Japan Policy

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair fell to 155.67 on Wednesday, recovering part of the previous session’s sharp losses. The decline was driven by renewed pressure on the US dollar, as market expectations for a deeper Federal Reserve easing cycle gained traction.

Domestically, investor attention remains firmly fixed on the likelihood of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike at its December meeting. This possibility has been underscored by recent hawkish signals from certain BoJ officials, creating a contrast with market perceptions that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government favours more accommodative monetary conditions.

This week, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama sought to downplay any perceived policy rift, stating there is no discrepancy between the government’s and the central bank’s economic assessments. This remark underscores the continued official emphasis on coordination between fiscal and monetary policy.

Her comments followed a speech by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who expressed confidence in Japan’s economic outlook and confirmed the central bank will carefully weigh the advantages and disadvantages of a rate increase at its December policy review.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY remains in a downward correction phase following its accelerated rally in mid-November. The pair is trading below the key resistance level of 156.76, forming a potential reversal structure near the lower Bollinger Band. Selling pressure persists, as evidenced by the market’s failure to sustain a move above the indicator’s middle band.

A decisive break below the 154.66 support level would signal a deeper correction, targeting the area of previous local lows. Conversely, a sustained recovery and close above 156.76 would provide the first technical signal of a potential recovery, opening a path for the pair to retest the 157.90–158.00 resistance zone.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is undergoing an upward correction after rebounding from support at 157.91. However, the upside appears constrained by the upper Bollinger Band. While buyers are attempting to push above the intermediate resistance at 158.40, price action remains choppy and lacks clear directional conviction.

The technical picture suggests a phase of sideways consolidation with a downside bias. Maintaining the price below 158.45 increases the likelihood of a retest of 157.91. A break below this level would strengthen the bearish scenario, targeting the lower boundary of the current range. For a confirmed bullish shift, a sustained move above 158.45, followed by a breakout towards 158.80–159.00, would be required.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is consolidating its recent decline amid a tug-of-war between a softer US dollar and evolving expectations for BoJ policy. The technical structure across both timeframes suggests a cautious, range-bound environment with a current tilt towards the downside. The immediate directional catalyst will likely be the BoJ’s December meeting, but in the near term, traders should watch for a break outside the 156.76–154.66 range on the H4 chart for a clearer signal on the pair’s next significant move.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

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