InvestMacro

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.62%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.24%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.23%. The November labor market report indicated a moderate cooling of the economy: employment growth was only 64K, accompanied by a sharp downward revision of October data and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6% – the highest level since 2021. Weaker US labor market and consumption data strengthened expectations for further Fed easing in 2026. Stagnant retail sales served as an additional signal of weakening demand. The energy sector pressured the indices due to oil prices falling below $55 per barrel, while tech giants traded mixed; gains in Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla, along with a recovery in Broadcom and Oracle, supported the Nasdaq.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened above 18 per US dollar, hitting its highest level since July 2024, amid dollar weakness and the maintenance of a relatively tight monetary policy in Mexico. At the same time, Mexico’s November inflation came in above expectations at approximately 3.8%, and the core indicator accelerated to the mid-4% range, confirming Banxico’s cautious stance. Consequently, attractive real rates and a stable yield differential continue to support capital inflows and demand for the peso.

European stock markets mostly declined yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.63%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed lower by 0.23%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.70%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.68%. Preliminary PMI indices indicated mixed dynamics in the Eurozone economy: overall private sector activity slowed due to weakness in the services sector and a continuing slump in manufacturing. Germany was the key factor in the deterioration, where the decline in manufacturing activity intensified, while in France, the slowdown in the services sector was more pronounced than the market expected, heightening concerns regarding the region’s growth rate.

Silver (XAG) hit an all-time high on Wednesday, rising toward $66 per ounce, driven by increased demand for alternative assets following the mixed US labor market report. Silver is further supported by fundamental factors: since the beginning of the year, the metal has appreciated by nearly 130% amid declining inventories and steady demand from industry and retail, particularly from the solar energy, electric vehicle, and data center sectors.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices fell by more than 2%, trading around $55.5 per barrel, the lowest level since early 2021. This brought year-to-date losses to approximately 22%, the worst annual performance since 2018. Expectations that the war in Ukraine might be nearing an end increased the likelihood of easing restrictions on Russian oil supplies, which would limit potential supply disruptions in an already well-supplied market. Simultaneously, economic data from China points to ongoing weakness in the world’s second-largest economy, clouding the demand outlook. However, downside risks were partially offset by the possibility of US military action in Venezuela following the Trump administration’s seizure of a supertanker last week.

Asian markets traded lower on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.56%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 1.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.54%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.42%.

The Australian dollar remained virtually unchanged, holding around $0.662, breaking its recent decline as latest government budget adjustments had no notable impact on central bank policy expectations. The budget deficit for the 2025/26 financial year is expected to be slightly lower at AUD 36.8 billion due to higher-than-projected tax revenues, while bond issuance plans remained unchanged. Amid steady spending, investors increased expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might need to raise the cash rate from the current 3.6% as early as June to curb inflation: analysts at CBA and NAB now allow for a rate hike in February, while Westpac considers such a move premature.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.51% (for the week, +1.01%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was cheaper by 1.07% (for the week, -0.70%). The tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 1.69% (-1.87%). The US stock markets sharply declined on Friday amid a massive sell-off in the technology sector following a 11.4% drop in Broadcom shares, triggered by a warning about margin pressure. This prompted a rotation of capital from high-valuation stocks related to AI and semiconductors into more cyclical and defensive sectors. Significant losses were also incurred by Nvidia, Oracle, Palantir, AMD, and Micron, reflecting growing investor caution regarding the margin potential of AI companies, despite the Fed’s recent interest rate cuts. An additional factor was the comments from the Cleveland Fed President, who expressed a preference for a tougher policy to control inflation.

Bitcoin dropped below $90,000, hitting a two-week low amid the global sell-off in tech stocks and reduced risk appetite. Pressure intensified due to fears of inflated valuations and massive spending in the AI sector, as well as uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s policy trajectory for the next year. An additional negative factor was the warning from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor about potential market consequences from MSCI’s initiative to exclude companies with over 50% digital asset holdings from its indices. Analysts estimate this could trigger significant capital outflow and increase the volatility of Bitcoin and related assets.

European stocks mostly went down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.45% (for the week, +0.71%), France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed lower by 0.21% (for the week, -0.37%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.28% (for the week, +1.46%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.56% (for the week, -0.19%).

WTI oil prices rose to $57.7 per barrel on Monday, partially recovering from last week’s over 4% drop, as geopolitical risks temporarily outweighed concerns about a global supply surplus. Prices were supported by increased US pressure on Venezuela, including the seizure of a tanker, the imposition of new sanctions, and a military buildup in the region, as well as supply disruption risks amid ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. The detention of a foreign tanker by Iran in the Gulf of Oman added another factor of uncertainty.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) pulled back below $62 per ounce on Friday after hitting record levels earlier in the session, as investors took profits and the market entered a short-term consolidation phase before the weekend. However, the overall bullish backdrop remains: the Fed’s recent rate cut and a less hawkish expectation support medium-term expectations, and Powell gave no signal of a return to tightening, pointing instead to further rate cuts in the following years. Strong ETF inflows and sustained retail demand are also fueling expectations of a silver deficit next year.

Asian markets traded without a single dynamic last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.40%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.35%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 1.18% over the five days.

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 7.05 per dollar, hitting a high since late September, despite weak economic data from China. November statistics pointed to a slowdown in growth: retail sales sharply missed projections, industrial production declined more than expected, and fixed-asset investment showed the deepest slump since the pandemic, with the ongoing real estate crisis intensifying pressure on the economy. The deteriorating macroeconomic environment heightened expectations for new fiscal and monetary support measures early next year, which partially offset the negative sentiment.

The New Zealand dollar weakened to around $0.578, retreating from a two-month high after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled its intention to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged for an extended period. RBNZ Governor Breman noted that the economy is largely evolving in line with the regulator’s prognoses, and inflation is moving towards the 2% target by mid-2026. Market participants’ attention is now focused on upcoming macro statistics, including the third-quarter GDP report, though pressure on the currency is partially restrained by the continuing weakening of the US dollar amid a softer-than-expected stance from the Federal Reserve.

At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.21%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.34%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 0.25%. Investors rotated out of overheated technology companies into cyclical and value stocks following the Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut and a soft signal on future policy. The largest gains were seen in the financial sector and payment systems: Visa added 6.2% after a BofA rating upgrade.

Mastercard and American Express rose by 4.6% and 2.5%, respectively. Major financial companies, including JPMorgan, UnitedHealth, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Progressive, also showed solid growth. The technology sector, conversely, dragged the market down: Oracle shares fell by 10.8% due to weak revenue and worsened cloud expectations, raising doubts about the return on AI investments.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to 18 per dollar, returning to its July 2024 highs amid the dollar’s weakness following the Fed rate cut and its softer tone. Simultaneously, investors revised expectations for further Banxico policy easing: November inflation accelerated to 3.8% y/y, and core inflation to 4.43% y/y, which complicates rapid future rate cuts. Although the Fed cut the rate by 25 basis points and began purchasing $40 billion in short-term bonds, tightening monetary conditions, Mexico remains attractive due to its high real interest rates.

European stock markets rose steadily yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.68%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed up 0.57%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.11%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.52% higher.

The Swiss franc strengthened to 0.79 per dollar, approaching its 2011 highs amid the dollar’s weakness and the SNB’s decision to keep the rate unchanged at 0% for the second consecutive time. The regulator noted a slight improvement in economic prospects, partly due to a recently concluded tariff agreement with the US, and recorded lower-than-expected inflation, which led to a reduction in short-term expectations without serious changes to medium-term ones. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel confirmed expectations of gradual inflation growth in the coming quarters, reinforcing the prognoses for stable monetary policy.

Palladium prices (XPD) held around $1,490 per ounce. Production of platinum group metals in South Africa grew by 3.9% y/y in October, the second consecutive month, indicating a stabilization of supply. Demand prospects are improving due to a 3.4% y/y increase in car sales in China in November, an 11-month high. An additional impact on the auto sector may come from the upcoming EU decision on emissions rules on December 16: the initial ban on ICE vehicles by 2035 is likely to be softened and shifted to 2040 due to industry pressure and a slower pace of transition, which could support demand for palladium in the medium term.

WTI crude oil prices fell by approximately 2% on Thursday to $57.3 per barrel, dropping to a seven-week low amid concerns about a growing global supply surplus driven by increased production from OPEC+ and producers in North and South America. Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly reduced its projections for a record surplus for the first time since May, it still anticipates a significant oil surplus in the market.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices fell by 7% on Thursday, below $4.3/MMBtu, reaching a five-week low amid warm weather expectations, weak demand, and near-record production levels. Above-normal temperatures are expected until December 26, reducing heating demand. Production in the continental states rose to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day, surpassing the November high and raising inventories approximately 3% above the seasonal level. Despite a large withdrawal of gas from storage last week (177 billion cubic feet) due to a short period of intense cold, high supply, and accumulated inventories continue to pressure the market.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.10%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped by 0.61%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.42%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.72% for the day. Stocks in Hong Kong opened strongly higher on Friday: the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.1% after a decline the day before. At the Central Economic Work Conference, Chairman Xi Jinping stated that 2025 would be a “truly outstanding year” and noted confidence in achieving key goals. Fiscal policy remains stimulative, and monetary policy remains soft, with an emphasis on supporting domestic demand.

The US stock indices rose on Wednesday in reaction to the FOMC decision and Powell’s comments. The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.05%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.67%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.33%. The Fed cut the rate by 25 basis points and maintained its expectations for one more cut next year. However, Powell’s remarks on whether to end the cycle or cut rates “a little” or “more than a little” bolstered expectations for further easing: the market prices the probability of two or more cuts in 2025 at approximately 68%. Industrial companies performed the best. In corporate news, Amazon stock stood out, rising 1.7% after announcing a $35 billion investment in India, and JPMorgan, which added 3.2%. Microsoft, conversely, fell by 2.8% amid reports of plans to invest $17.5 billion in India over the next four years.

The Canadian dollar strengthened above $1.38 per US dollar, reaching a twelve-week high, driven by a combination of softer Fed rate expectations and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) hawkish stance, underpinned by strong domestic data. The BoC kept its rate unchanged at 2.25% and signaled that it views the current policy as adequate, citing unexpectedly strong Q3 GDP growth (2.6% y/y) and a tight labor market with unemployment around 6.5%. All of this reduces the likelihood of imminent policy easing and supports the Canadian currency.

European stock markets traded mixed on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.13%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed lower by 0.37%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.17%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.14%. In France, the approval of the social budget reduced short-term political uncertainty, giving the euro additional support, although key risks remain during the discussion of the overall state budget. In Switzerland, the rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0%, and market attention shifts to next week’s ECB meeting, where the regulator is expected to keep the rate at 2% until at least 2026, given that inflation and growth align with current prognoses.

WTI crude oil prices dropped to $58 per barrel on Thursday, partially reversing the gains of the previous session: the market is balancing geopolitical risks against persistently bearish fundamental expectations. The US interception of a sanctioned tanker off Venezuela and a Ukrainian attack on a vessel from the “shadow fleet” linked to Russian oil trade increased fears of supply disruptions and added to the risk premium. However, these factors are offset by prognoses of a supply glut: growth in production by OPEC+ and allies is expected to exceed weak global demand. Investors await fresh reports from OPEC and the IEA, which may clarify market balance expectations. Meanwhile, US government data showed a reduction in commercial crude oil inventories by 1.8 million barrels.
The price of silver climbed above $61.8 per ounce, continuing its record rally following the Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut and Powell’s comments, which were perceived as dovish by the markets. This weakened the dollar and reduced the opportunity cost of holding the metal. Additional support was provided by severe physical market constraints: inflows into ETFs and spot demand have increased this year, Asian and Indian demand remains high, and the shortage of available metal has led to rising lease rates and borrowing costs for silver.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.10%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped by 0.61%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.42%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.72%.

The Australian dollar retreated on Thursday after the release of weak labor market data: the economy unexpectedly lost 21.3 thousand jobs in November, the largest drop in nine months, with the decline concentrated in full-time employment, and labor force participation weakened, which kept unemployment at 4.3%. This data reinforced signs of a gradual cooling in the labor market and shifted expectations for an RBA rate hike to the second half of 2026 instead of May. However, the regulator still assesses the labor market as tight, pointing to a high level of vacancies and rising labor costs.

On Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.38%. The S&P500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.09%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.13%. A fresh estimate of US job openings (a rise to 7.67 million) maintained investor focus on labor market signals amid expectations of a likely 25 basis point Fed rate cut this week. Among other movements: Nvidia dropped by 0.3% on reports of potential restrictions on H200 chip purchases in China, and Home Depot declined by 1.3% following more cautious profit expectations for 2026.

The Mexican peso weakened to 18.3 per dollar, pulling back from a one-and-a-half-year high. The currency was pressured by rising US yields and a narrowing yield premium in Mexico, as markets anticipate further Banxico policy easing in 2026. Weaker economic prognoses and expectations of lower real interest rates create additional pressure, limiting capital inflows and increasing the peso’s vulnerability.

European stock markets traded directionally mixed on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.49%, the French CAC 40 (FR 40) closed down by 0.69%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.13%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.03%.

Silver climbed above $60 per ounce on Tuesday amid expectations of a Fed rate cut and a persistent physical metal deficit. The rally is supported by increased industrial demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics against limited mining output, leading to outflows from exchange warehouses and inflows into ETFs. However, tougher signals from the Fed or an increase in supply could cap further gains.

WTI continued its decline on Tuesday. Pressure on quotes intensified due to signs of increasing supply: China boosted purchases of Saudi oil after reduced selling prices, and Iraq resumed production at the West Qurna-2 field, adding volume to the market amidst rising US inventories. Additional negative sentiment was generated by estimates from the IEA and OPEC+, indicating a possible supply surplus in 2026. Geopolitical risks continue to support the market, but traders’ attention is also focused on the Fed meeting: the expected rate cut could strengthen demand expectations for oil next year.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.14%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.02%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 1.29%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.45%.

The Australian dollar is holding near a three-month high thanks to a hawkish signal from the RBA on monetary policy. Despite a pause in rate changes at the December meeting, RBA Governor Bullock suggested the possibility of a rate hike as early as February if there is no progress in reducing inflation, which sharply strengthened tightening expectations: the market prices the probability of a February hike at approximately 30%, and nearly 100% by May. Rising Australian bond yields boosted capital inflow through the carry trade and supported the Australian currency.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan held around 7.06 per dollar, as increased consumer inflation softened expectations of further monetary policy support. China’s consumer prices rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November 2025, the highest reading since February 2024. Earlier this week, the Politburo promised to expand domestic demand and support the overall economy in 2026, though it demonstrated a cautious approach to stimulus. Meanwhile, factory gate deflation unexpectedly worsened to 2.2% in November, marking the 38th consecutive month of producer price declines.