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COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (45,047 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (43,633 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (41,774 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (36,024 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (20,667 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12,726 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (10,650 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-179,227 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-100,918 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bond Price Performance led by small gains in SOFRs

In the bond markets price performance changes, the five-day percent changes were led by the three-month and one-month Secured Overnight Financing Rates (SOFR), which rose by 0.13% and 0.07%, respectively. The Fed Funds (0.02%) were virtually unchanged on the week, while the 2-Year Bond saw a minuscule fall by -0.04%.

The US Treasury Bond was down by -0.14%, the 5-Year Bond fell by -0.22%, and the 10-Year Note was lower by -0.36%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (88 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (83 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (17.8 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (64.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (78.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (17.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (17.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (32.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (42.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (39.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (88.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (81.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (83.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (79.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (30.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (23.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (33.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (42.4 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (34 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-31.9 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-31.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-8.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-7.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-1.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (34.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (15.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (8.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (11.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (14.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (12.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (0.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-10.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (4.9 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 59,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -100,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	59.0	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	62.9	1.5
– Net Position:	59,440	-83,088	23,648
– Gross Longs:	494,204	1,268,848	55,093
– Gross Shorts:	434,764	1,351,936	31,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.3	33.1	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	29.6	22.1

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -524,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -179,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -345,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	56.3	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	52.2	0.1
– Net Position:	-524,612	522,562	2,050
– Gross Longs:	1,807,449	7,187,932	21,089
– Gross Shorts:	2,332,061	6,665,370	19,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	66.6	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	10.5	1.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -273,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 36,024 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -309,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	71.3	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	52.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-273,183	272,850	333
– Gross Longs:	251,944	1,033,988	546
– Gross Shorts:	525,127	761,138	213
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.1	69.8	67.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-12.0	0.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,304,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 41,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,346,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	76.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	49.8	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,304,880	1,176,303	128,577
– Gross Longs:	659,942	3,402,936	245,623
– Gross Shorts:	1,964,822	2,226,633	117,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.8	82.2	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-1.8	7.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,269,120 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 43,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,312,753 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.3	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	51.7	4.5
– Net Position:	-2,269,120	2,126,524	142,596
– Gross Longs:	515,461	5,601,486	445,017
– Gross Shorts:	2,784,581	3,474,962	302,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.4	80.9	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-8.4	-5.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -870,505 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 45,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -915,552 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	76.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	63.0	6.1
– Net Position:	-870,505	785,650	84,855
– Gross Longs:	713,272	4,383,326	432,679
– Gross Shorts:	1,583,777	3,597,676	347,824
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	71.2	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	26.5	-18.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -249,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -261,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	79.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	66.7	12.1
– Net Position:	-249,202	330,563	-81,361
– Gross Longs:	275,338	2,057,956	231,470
– Gross Shorts:	524,540	1,727,393	312,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.9	62.8	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.5	-27.1	-25.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 20,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	75.5	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	82.3	7.3
– Net Position:	13,835	-123,423	109,588
– Gross Longs:	170,410	1,370,974	241,908
– Gross Shorts:	156,575	1,494,397	132,320
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	8.1	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.0	-1.2	-25.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -235,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -245,747 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	83.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	72.7	8.3
– Net Position:	-235,097	228,601	6,496
– Gross Longs:	146,941	1,761,337	182,270
– Gross Shorts:	382,038	1,532,736	175,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	29.7	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-5.8	-16.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

18 Jan

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by Bloomberg Commodity Index & WTI Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Bloomberg Commodity Index & WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was the Bloomberg Commodity Index (7,989 contracts) with Gasoline (2,569 contracts) and WTI Crude (776 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-20,042 contracts), Brent Oil (-6,035 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-4,359 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Energy Market Price Performance led by Heating Oil

The energy markets saw Heating Oil lead the price performance over the last five days with a gain by 3.7%. Brent Crude Oil was up by 1.79%, while the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by 1.53% on the week. WTI Crude Oil was also higher by 1.22%, and Gasoline rose by approximately 0.50%.

The only energy market with a down week was Natural Gas, which fell by -0.62%. Natural Gas has been on a strong downtrend and has fallen by 33% in the past 30 days, and by 22% over the past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index & Gasoline

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bloomberg Index (80.5 percent) and Gasoline (67.2 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, Natural Gas (0.0 percent) and WTI Crude (5.9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (5.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (5.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (32.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (41.4 percent)
Natural Gas (0.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (14.9 percent)
Gasoline (67.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (64.4 percent)
Heating Oil (62.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (68.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (80.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (44.7 percent)

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bloomberg Index (61.5 percent) and WTI Crude (2.3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Natural Gas (-43.8 percent), Gasoline (-32.8 percent) and Brent Oil (-13.6 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (2.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-13.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-1.2 percent)
Natural Gas (-43.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-20.1 percent)
Gasoline (-32.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-23.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-11.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-0.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (61.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (23.5 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 776 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	42.4	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	45.6	2.9
– Net Position:	58,128	-65,450	7,322
– Gross Longs:	286,136	855,313	65,125
– Gross Shorts:	228,008	920,763	57,803
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.9	96.8	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-1.3	-6.0

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	34.5	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	21.2	2.2
– Net Position:	-33,887	30,758	3,129
– Gross Longs:	52,273	79,946	8,124
– Gross Shorts:	86,160	49,188	4,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.8	66.3	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	10.8	29.4

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -185,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,559 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	36.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	26.3	2.6
– Net Position:	-185,601	172,844	12,757
– Gross Longs:	270,263	602,296	54,985
– Gross Shorts:	455,864	429,452	42,228
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.8	42.9	-1.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 72,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,569 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	48.5	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	66.0	4.3
– Net Position:	72,527	-79,062	6,535
– Gross Longs:	109,165	218,251	26,081
– Gross Shorts:	36,638	297,313	19,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	32.8	59.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.8	32.8	-17.0

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	47.6	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	55.0	8.9
– Net Position:	14,511	-27,335	12,824
– Gross Longs:	62,981	174,862	45,706
– Gross Shorts:	48,470	202,197	32,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	40.5	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	23.6	-43.0

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	69.6	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	67.0	0.0
– Net Position:	-5,798	4,845	953
– Gross Longs:	51,952	131,526	974
– Gross Shorts:	57,750	126,681	21
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	46.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.5	16.3	61.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	61.5	-63.4	20.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

18 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (26,028 contracts) with Soybean Meal (13,215 contracts), Live Cattle (5,213 contracts), Coffee (2,216 contracts), Wheat (2,066 contracts), Cotton (1,489 contracts) and Lean Hogs (90 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-93,535 contracts), Soybeans (-45,823 contracts), Cocoa (-12,726 contracts) and with Sugar (-11,613 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

5-Day Price Performance led by Soybean Oil

Soft commodity prices this week saw Soybean Oil lead the past five days’ performance with a gain of 5.33%. Soybean Oil has risen by almost 3% over the past 90 days.

Lean Hogs came in second with a 1.13% gain this week, followed by Cotton, which rose by 0.45%. Sugar (0.10%) and Wheat (0.09%) were marginally higher on the week while Live Cattle was virtually unchanged.

Soybeans fell by just over half a percent (-0.68%), followed by Coffee (-0.81%), which was lower by just under -1%. Cocoa fell by -2.6%, while Corn dropped by over -4%, and Soybean Meal was down by about -5%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybeans

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (63 percent), Soybeans (57 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Lean Hogs (56 percent) lead the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Cocoa (0 percent) and Sugar (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (23 percent) and the Wheat (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (44.4 percent)
Sugar (7.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.7 percent)
Coffee (56.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.8 percent)
Soybeans (56.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (66.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (29.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (14.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (33.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (28.2 percent)
Live Cattle (62.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (57.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (55.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (55.6 percent)
Cotton (22.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (13.0 percent)
Wheat (28.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (26.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (13 percent) and Live Cattle (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (7 percent) and Sugar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-41 percent), Soybean Oil (-22 percent) and Soybean Meal (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.2 percent)
Sugar (4.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.4 percent)
Coffee (-2.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.5 percent)
Soybeans (-41.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-29.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (-21.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-27.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-20.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-27.8 percent)
Live Cattle (12.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (10.2 percent)
Cotton (6.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.6 percent)
Cocoa (-3.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.2 percent)
Wheat (-52.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-46.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -93,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	48.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	45.1	9.6
– Net Position:	-33,423	48,923	-15,500
– Gross Longs:	328,395	776,624	140,104
– Gross Shorts:	361,818	727,701	155,604
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	64.6	88.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	16.3	14.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -165,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -154,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	56.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	38.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-165,711	176,273	-10,562
– Gross Longs:	143,494	545,372	69,916
– Gross Shorts:	309,205	369,099	80,478
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.3	94.1	6.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-2.2	-9.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	40.7	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	60.7	3.8
– Net Position:	32,752	-34,127	1,375
– Gross Longs:	57,888	69,400	7,843
– Gross Shorts:	25,136	103,527	6,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	45.1	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	2.9	-7.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -45,823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	51.5	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	56.3	8.7
– Net Position:	58,947	-39,485	-19,462
– Gross Longs:	176,440	419,099	51,203
– Gross Shorts:	117,493	458,584	70,665
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	43.6	61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.3	42.4	2.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 26,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	49.9	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	46.3	4.1
– Net Position:	-25,135	22,739	2,396
– Gross Longs:	119,861	320,241	28,550
– Gross Shorts:	144,996	297,502	26,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.3	71.9	30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.8	21.5	-11.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 757 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	52.6	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	55.2	5.9
– Net Position:	757	-13,489	12,732
– Gross Longs:	111,971	269,497	42,916
– Gross Shorts:	111,214	282,986	30,184
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	70.1	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	20.7	-3.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 85,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,213 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.6	33.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	55.9	12.2
– Net Position:	85,939	-73,983	-11,956
– Gross Longs:	144,736	107,437	27,580
– Gross Shorts:	58,797	181,420	39,536
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	32.1	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-14.0	-2.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 90 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	35.7	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	47.2	8.9
– Net Position:	41,478	-35,177	-6,301
– Gross Longs:	117,956	108,712	20,863
– Gross Shorts:	76,478	143,889	27,164
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	47.0	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.4	6.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	45.7	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	38.2	3.7
– Net Position:	-27,431	24,316	3,115
– Gross Longs:	88,834	149,665	15,181
– Gross Shorts:	116,265	125,349	12,066
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.7	75.7	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-8.6	29.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	47.0	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	38.2	8.8
– Net Position:	-9,496	12,095	-2,599
– Gross Longs:	27,010	65,030	9,528
– Gross Shorts:	36,506	52,935	12,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	2.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	3.2	-0.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -86,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	36.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	20.2	5.7
– Net Position:	-86,025	84,878	1,147
– Gross Longs:	128,167	188,716	30,432
– Gross Shorts:	214,192	103,838	29,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.5	72.6	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-52.9	53.3	35.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

16 Jan

USD/JPY Slips as the Yen Reacts to a Wave of Market News

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair fell to 158.16 on Friday as the Japanese yen continued its recovery from earlier this week. Market participants are increasingly focused on the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, hoping for clearer signals regarding the future pace of interest rate hikes.

The regulator is widely expected to keep its policy parameters unchanged at the next meeting. However, investors are already pricing in the next rate hike as early as June. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently reiterated that the central bank remains ready to tighten policy if economic momentum and inflation dynamics continue to align with official forecasts.

Additional support for the yen came from renewed concerns over possible currency intervention as USD/JPY approached the psychologically important 160 level. Japanese authorities have repeatedly warned against sharp, unilateral exchange rate movements, increasing market sensitivity in this zone.

At the same time, political uncertainty continues to weigh on the yen. Markets are factoring in the possibility of early parliamentary elections. According to media reports, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may announce the dissolution of the lower house in an effort to push forward a more active fiscal policy. Further details are expected to be presented to representatives of the ruling coalition on 19 January.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has corrected to the 157.90 area. For today, it is relevant to consider the potential formation of the initial phase of a renewed upward structure, targeting 159.59, with the prospect of a further move towards 160.00.

This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above the zero level and is directed sharply upward, indicating that bullish momentum remains despite the recent correction.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is forming a consolidation range around 158.77. The range has currently expanded downward to 157.97.

A breakout below this level would likely trigger a decline towards 156.60
A breakout to the upside would open the way for a bullish wave towards 159.59

This outlook is supported by the Stochastic Oscillator, whose signal line is positioned above the 50 level and is moving steadily upward towards 80, indicating growing bullish pressure.

Conclusion

USD/JPY remains at a critical juncture, balancing yen support from intervention risks and expectations of BoJ tightening against ongoing pressure from political uncertainty. In the short term, consolidation is likely to persist, but a breakout from the current range will define the next directional move. As long as the pair holds above key support levels, the broader bullish trend towards the 160 area remains technically valid, while a downside breakout would shift focus towards deeper corrective targets.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Jan

Oil tumbles 5%. Tech rally pushes US stocks higher

By JustMarkets

The US stocks rose firmly on Thursday, driven by a sharp improvement in sentiment within the technology sector and a generally positive flow of macroeconomic data. At the close of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.60%. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 0.26%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) finished higher by 0.26%. The key market driver was the earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which bolstered investor confidence in the long-term AI-related investment cycle. The company reported a 35% increase in fourth-quarter profit and provided a more optimistic revenue prognosis than expected. This triggered a broad rally in semiconductor stocks and related equipment manufacturers, restoring risk appetite across the entire tech sector.

In geopolitics, the tone became less strained following a softening of US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding Iran. However, uncertainty persists due to his statements regarding Greenland.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to 1.39 against the US dollar, remaining in a tight range near early December lows, as a strengthening US dollar and falling oil prices outweighed relatively stable domestic factors. The easing of President Trump’s rhetoric on Iran led to a reduction in the geopolitical premium in oil, putting pressure on commodity prices and weakening CAD support from trade conditions. Domestically, pressure on the currency persists due to a sluggish labor market: the unemployment rate remains around 6.8%, anchoring the Bank of Canada’s neutral stance and limiting the potential for policy tightening to support the currency.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to 17.65 per US dollar, its highest level since July 2024, thanks to a renewed influx of capital through carry-trade operations, driven by Mexico’s persistently high real interest rates. Banxico slowed its rate-cutting cycle, holding the benchmark rate at 7% and signaling the need for caution amid persistent core inflation. This maintains one of the widest real yield differentials in emerging markets, supporting capital inflows into peso-denominated fixed-income assets.

European equity markets traded without a unified trend on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.26%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.21%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.30%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished up 0.54%. Investors reacted positively to a combination of encouraging macroeconomic data and corporate news while accounting for the geopolitical backdrop. The market was supported by fresh data indicating that the German economy returned to moderate growth in 2025, expanding by 0.2% after two years of decline. Additional momentum came from the technology sector amid renewed AI optimism following TSMC’s record results, which improved sentiment in the high-tech and industrial segments.

WTI crude oil prices collapsed nearly 5% on Thursday to $59 per barrel, marking the sharpest one-day drop since October as geopolitical risks surrounding Iran receded. The primary trigger was US President Donald Trump’s statement that he had received assurances from the Iranian side regarding the cessation of protester killings. This dampened expectations of immediate US military intervention and sharply reduced fears of disruptions to Iranian production and strategic supply routes. Additionally, Trump noted his belief that Venezuela should remain in OPEC, which markets interpreted as a signal to maintain the status quo on supply rather than pursue sharp cuts.

Asian markets traded without a unified trend yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.42%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.51%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) shed 0.28%, while the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.47%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened to the 0.575 level on Friday and is heading for a weekly gain following a series of positive signals from the real sector. The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) rose for the sixth consecutive month in December, accelerating to its highest levels in four years. The market has ramped up expectations for policy tightening later this year: the probability of a rate hike in September is estimated at approximately 57%, with such a move almost fully priced in by October. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) February meeting is still perceived as a non-event, with the rate expected to remain at 2.25%.

The Malaysian economy’s growth, according to preliminary estimates, accelerated to 5.7% year-on-year in Q4 2025, compared to 5.2% in the previous quarter, marking the fastest pace since Q2 2024. The key driver was a recovery in the industrial sector. On a quarterly basis, GDP increased by 3.0% following an upwardly revised 5.4% jump in Q3 – the highest since late 2021. For the full year 2025, the economy grew by 4.9%, slowing only slightly from 5.1% the previous year.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,944.49 +17.89 (+0.26%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,442.26 +292.63 (+0.60%)

DAX (DE40) 25,352.39 +66.15 (+0.26%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,238.94 +54.59 (+0.54%)

USD Index 99.38 +0.25% (+0.25%)

News feed for: 2026.01.16

US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Jan

GBP/USD Stable: Sentiment Shifts in Favour of Sterling

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair held around 1.3430 USD on Thursday, with the pound strengthening yesterday following better-than-expected UK economic growth data. These figures may shape market expectations for Bank of England policy in the coming months.

Since the start of January, sterling has made limited headway against the US dollar but has strengthened notably against the euro. Dollar sentiment remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Greenland, as well as renewed comments from President Donald Trump questioning the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Investor sentiment toward the pound has turned more constructive at the start of 2026. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), traders reduced bearish bets on the pound at the fastest pace in five months during the first week of January. The net long dollar position against sterling fell sharply to 2.577 billion USD, down from 6.586 billion USD at the end of December—marking the steepest weekly decline since September 2019.

Inflation in the UK eased faster than expected toward the end of 2025, and markets are currently pricing in two BoE rate cuts this year. However, analysts view this as overly optimistic: persistently weak growth and subdued inflation could ultimately weigh on the currency. Upcoming soft employment and inflation data for December will be key to reassessing the likelihood of a rate cut as early as February, though markets currently assign low odds to such a move.

Next week brings key releases, including consumer prices and labour market data, followed by GDP figures on Thursday. A Reuters poll suggests the UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the three months to November, with annual growth estimated at around 1.1%.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD is forming a broad consolidation range around 1.3455 USD. The range is expected to extend toward 1.3395 USD, followed by a corrective bounce to 1.3415 USD. Once complete, the downtrend may resume toward 1.3290 USD, with further potential to 1.3220 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bearish near-term outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair has established a tight consolidation range around 1.3440 USD. A downward move toward 1.3395 USD is in progress, and a break below this level would open the door to further declines toward 1.3290 USD. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line is below 20 and trending lower, indicating sustained selling momentum.

Conclusion

Despite improving sentiment and a sharp reduction in speculative short positions, the pound remains vulnerable to downside risks from domestic data and shifting BoE expectations. Technically, the pair retains a near-term bearish bias, with key support levels at 1.3395 USD and 1.3290 USD. A break below these levels could accelerate declines, while any sustained recovery would likely require stronger-than-expected UK data in the coming week.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Jan

Natural Gas prices plunge over 10%. Profit-taking observed in precious metals.

By JustMarkets

At the close of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by -0.09%. The S&P 500 (US500) shed -0.53%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by -1.00%. The US stock markets continued their decline on Wednesday, retreating from recent record highs amid mixed corporate reports, conflicting macro data, and rising geopolitical tensions. The technology sector faced the most significant pressure: semiconductor stocks faced a sell-off following reports of restrictions from China, which notably soured overall market sentiment. Macroeconomic statistics failed to pivot the market: moderate inflation and stable consumption only confirmed expectations that the Fed’s current policy will remain unchanged, failing to offset the impact of corporate and political factors. Wells Fargo shares fell by -3.9% after the company missed profit and revenue forecasts. Bank of America shares declined -3.6% despite beating expectations, while Citigroup dropped -0.3% after posting stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue figures. JPMorgan shares fell -0.3%, extending a -4.1% slide from the previous session following disappointing quarterly results.

European equity markets traded without a unified trend on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell -0.53%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down -0.19%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by +0.05%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished Wednesday up +0.46%.

On Thursday, silver prices (XAG) dropped sharply by approximately -6%, falling below $88 per ounce and retreating from recently reached all-time highs. Pressure on prices emerged after US President Donald Trump delayed the introduction of new import duties on critical minerals, reducing short-term geopolitical and trade risks. An additional factor in the decline was the weakened appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets. Demand waned following Trump’s statements that he had received assurances regarding the cessation of executions of protesters in Iran, which eased fears of potential US military intervention and regional escalation.

WTI crude oil prices declined by approximately -3% on Thursday to around $60 per barrel, snapping a five-session winning streak. The correction was triggered by easing geopolitical tensions following comments from US President Donald Trump, which lowered expectations of an imminent military strike on Iran. Additional pressure came from EIA data showing a rise in US crude oil and gasoline inventories last week, although distillate stocks decreased. Together, these factors intensified profit-taking and accelerated the reversal of quotes after a prolonged rally.

US natural gas prices (XNG) plunged by -10%, approaching their lowest levels since October 17, due to a reduction in gas flows to LNG export facilities. Gas deliveries to LNG plants on Wednesday dropped to a two-month low of 17.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) due to reduced supplies to Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi plant and the Freeport LNG plant.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained +1.48%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by -1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed +0.56%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of +0.14% yesterday. On Wednesday, PRC regulators raised minimum margin requirements for stock transactions from 80% to 100%, effectively restricting leverage and highlighting Beijing’s commitment to curbing excessive speculation and systemic risks in capital markets.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) traded virtually unchanged near $0.668, holding close to a two-week low. Australian consumer inflation expectations remained at a high level of 4.6% in January, virtually unchanged from December, indicating persistent concerns over rising prices. Nevertheless, markets remain skeptical of imminent policy tightening: the probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in February is estimated at approximately 27%, while it rises to about 76% by May.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,926.60 −37.14 (−0.53%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,149.63 −42.36 (−0.09%)

DAX (DE40) 25,286.24 −134.42 (−0.53%)

FTSE 100 10,184.35 +47.00 (+0.46%)

USD Index 99.10 (−0.04%)

News feed for: 2026.01.15

Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

14 Jan

Markets gripped by geopolitics, uncertainty & Trump

By ForexTime

Risk-heavy week leaves investors on edge
Yen is the worst-performing G10 currency week-to-date
US Supreme Court scheduled to rule on Trump’s tariffs
Gold & Silver rally to fresh all-time highs
Bitcoin hits highest level in two-months above $96,000

It’s been a tense week defined by geopolitics, concerns over the Fed’s independence, and anticipation ahead of a US Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs.

This messy mashup of high-risk events has created a smog of uncertainty, with investors adopting a defensive approach toward risk.

Nevertheless, European shares clawed back some losses this morning after a modest dip in the previous session, but US equity futures are pointing to a shaky open.

Geopolitical flashpoints across the globe, concerning Iran and Ukraine, have dominated headlines, boosting the appetite for safe-haven assets. On top of this, Trump recently threatened 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, and as expected, China has threatened to retaliate.

On the trade front, the US Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on the legality of Trump’s tariffs. Prediction markets are giving the administration only a 30% chance of prevailing.

(Source Polymarkets)

Equity markets may experience a relief rally if the court strikes down the tariffs, but gains may be capped by trade policy uncertainty.

In the FX space, the Yen is the worst-performing G10 currency this week amid rising political uncertainty in Japan. The USDJPY is slowly approaching the danger zone, with speculation growing over a potential intervention. With the Fed expected to cut rates twice in 2026 and the BoJ seen hiking twice, this divergence in monetary policy could signal a selloff down the road.

Looking at earnings, JPMorgan’s fourth-quarter results topped consensus on most measures. However, investment-banking fees dropped by 5%, missing the bank’s own guidance. In result, JPMorgan shares tanked over 4% – taking 2026 gains to negative 3.5%. This rocky start to earnings dragged the us equities lower, with the Dow Jones ending almost 1% lower.

Commodities have been a bright spot this week, with both gold and silver hitting fresh all-time highs. Silver has gained over 25% since the start of 2026, adding to the whopping 148% rally seen last year. Gold is lagging, rising 7% this month thanks to heightened geopolitical risk, fears over the Fed’s independence, and bets around lower US rates.

With silver hitting $91.55 this morning, could $100 be on the cards by the end of the month? Prices are trading less than 10% away from this level as of writing.

Oil prices slipped on Wednesday after seeing their biggest four-day rally in more than six months. The negative developments in Iran and possible intervention by the United States have fuelled concerns over supply disruptions impacting around 3.3 million bpd of the country’s output. While oil benchmarks are pushing higher, concerns over ongoing oversupply may limit upside gains.

In the crypto space, Bitcoin jumped to a two-month high as prices punched above $96,000. The “OG” crypto drew strength from the latest US inflation report, which rose less than expected, while concerns over the Fed’s independence offered further support. Bitcoin is up over 8% year-to-date, with the next bullish level of interest at $100,000.

Trump

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

14 Jan

Gold Sets New Highs, With Further Gains Ahead

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices rose above 4,622 USD per ounce on Wednesday, challenging previous record levels. The rally is underpinned by growing expectations of US interest rate cuts this year and heightened demand for defensive assets.

December data pointed to a moderation in core US inflation, confirming a gradual easing of price pressures and clarifying the economic picture following earlier disruptions.

In this environment, interest rate futures reflect a divergence in expectations: investors are pricing in two to three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025, exceeding the median forecast from policymakers themselves, which signals only one reduction.

Safe-haven demand has also been reinforced by concerns over the Fed’s independence following the launch of a criminal investigation related to Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony in June.

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, with markets closely monitoring the risk of US involvement in political instability in Iran amid recurring warnings of potential military action.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is consolidating around 4,623 USD. An upward expansion of this range towards 4,770 USD is anticipated, likely to be followed by a corrective pullback towards 4,620 USD. A break below this level would open the door to a deeper correction towards 4,520 USD.

The MACD indicator supports the bullish outlook, with its signal line turning upward and pressing towards new highs, indicating sustained upward momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a consolidation range around 4,629 USD and is now building the next leg higher, targeting at least 4,770 USD. This structure reinforces the broader uptrend.

The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line is positioned at 80 and continues to point upward, signalling strong near-term bullish momentum.

Conclusion

Gold continues to draw strength from shifting rate expectations, political uncertainty, and persistent geopolitical risks. While the near-term technical structure suggests potential for further gains towards 4,770 USD, traders should remain mindful of overextended conditions and the likelihood of a corrective pullback thereafter. A sustained move above current levels would reinforce the longer-term bullish narrative, while a break below 4,620 USD could signal a deeper retracement before the next leg higher.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Metals

13 Jan

EUR/USD Awaiting US Inflation Data for Direction

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair stabilised around 1.1658 on Tuesday, following a period of volatility over the preceding two sessions.

Market focus remains firmly on the forthcoming US inflation data, which is expected to provide crucial clarity on the future path of Federal Reserve policy. Currently, the market is pricing in two rate cuts this year, with the first anticipated in June. However, any upside surprise in inflation could significantly temper expectations for policy easing.

Supporting a more dovish outlook was last week’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for December, which revealed weaker-than-expected job growth.

Investors are also monitoring developments in the US Supreme Court, which is expected to rule on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy as early as Wednesday.

Earlier this week, the US dollar faced additional headwinds following reports that Fed Chair Jerome Powell could face scrutiny over his congressional testimony related to a building renovation project. This has raised concerns, albeit limited, regarding the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the pair is forming a corrective retracement within the context of the second downward impulse. The immediate corrective target stands at 1.1700. Once this correction concludes, we anticipate the resumption of the downtrend, with the next bearish target at 1.1555. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing decisively downward, reinforcing the ongoing bearish momentum and potential for further downside.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has completed a decline to 1.1655 and is now forming an upward corrective impulse towards 1.1700. Upon reaching this level, we expect a renewed wave of selling pressure to emerge. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line is currently below 20 but is turning upward towards 80, indicating room for a short-term rebound before the next potential decline.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair is in a holding pattern ahead of key US inflation data, which will likely dictate the near-term direction of the pair. While the technical structure remains bearish, a corrective bounce towards 1.1700 appears likely before sellers potentially regain control. A stronger-than-expected inflation print could reinforce the dollar’s strength and accelerate the move towards 1.1555.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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