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Trade Of The Week: GBPUSD To Plunge Deeper Into Abyss?

Our trade of the week was initially reserved for the mighty dollar after the bloodbath in FX markets last week…

However, the pound’s flash crash to record lows hijacked our attention early this morning.

It’s been a rough month for the British pound thanks to a growing list of negative themes.

The economic outlook remains uncertain in the face of rising inflation while the death of Queen Elizabeth II has added to the overall gloom. Sentiment towards the UK economy is shaky despite the BoE recently hiking rates by 50 bp to control inflation. Investors are clearly on edge and this continues to be reflected in increased pound sensitivity to political and economic developments.

The low down…

The key trigger behind the pound’s stomach-churning selloff was the Conservative government’s huge tax-cutting mini-budget revealed last Friday. Growing concern over the fiscal policies fuelling inflation and government debt left investors on edge, adding another layer of uncertainty over the UK’s already gloomy outlook. Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng’s comment on Sunday that there will be “more to come” on tax cuts, simply rubbed salt into the wound – sending the pound sliding to a record low at 1.0350.

With the fundamentals and negative themes clearly favouring pound bears, the path of least resistance for GBPUSD points south. As the dollar continues to appreciate on Fed hike bets and risk aversion, this may fuel the downside momentum.

What does this mean for the Bank of England?

The pound’s painful depreciation has sparked speculation over an emergency interest rate hike from the BoE to calm markets. Even if the BoE intervenes, short-term gains may be swallowed by long-term themes favouring bears.

According to Bloomberg, traders are pricing as much as 125 basis points of tightening by the next policy meeting in November, springboarding the BoE into the super jumbo hiking club. While such a move could throw the tired pound a lifeline and limit downside losses, the upside could be capped by recession fears and other forces haunting attraction towards sterling.

What to watch out for this week…

This will be a week jampacked with speeches by numerous Federal Reserve officials. The next few days could be incredibly volatile for the dollar which remains highly sensitive to anything relating to inflation and rate hike expectations. If the majority of Fed speakers strike a hawkish note and fuel speculation around more aggressive rate hikes down the road, this could turbo-charge dollar bulls further. Alternatively, a cautious set of Fed officials who drop dovish hints and concerns over the US economic outlook could slam the breaks on the dollar rally. Such a development may invite bears into the scene, dragging the Dollar Index (DXY) lower.

Ultimately, a stronger USD may drag the GBPUSD to fresh all-time lows while a weaker USD could offer space for bulls to fight back – triggering a technical bounce on the currency pair before bears return.

GBPUSD parity dream to become reality?

After hitting an all-time low of 1.0350, the GBPUSD was only 350 pips away from touching parity.

When considering how the currency pair dropped over 400 pips on Friday and well over 1000 pips since the start of last week, the parity dream could become reality sooner than expected.

Prices are under intense pressure in the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframe. Given are we are trading in uncharted territories, there is plenty of space for bears to run rampant. The previous all-time low at 1.0520 (hit back in 1985) could transform into dynamic resistance down the road. Sustained weakness below this point may re-open the doors back towards 1.0350. A breakdown below this level could encourage a selloff towards 1.0100 and parity.

Alternatively, if prices break back above 1.0850 this could trigger a move higher towards 1.1350 where bears may attempt to snatch back control.

On the daily charts, things look ugly. Prices are trading below the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMA while the MACD is below zero. A move back below 1.0520 could signal further declines over the next few days. If 1.0850 proves to be unreliable resistance, the GBPUSD could challenge 1.1300.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Sep

Brent Dropped to Its February Lows

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The commodity market is now experiencing a huge stress due to concerns of the reduction in demand for energies. Early in the week, Brent dropped to $85.35 and no other negative factors have appeared since then. However, those that are already here are enough for investors to remain worried. The key aspect is a progressive decline in the global economy, which might cause a serious drop in demand for commodities in general, and in oil in particular.

The Dollar index has reached its multi-year highs and may yet continue to improve. For the commodity market, it’s a negative signal.

In addition, there is a technical factor – when the asset was trying to break $90, bears immediately became more active and the price fell.

On the H4 chart, having broken 88.20 to the downside, Brent continues to fall towards 80.50 and may soon reach 83.00. Later, the market may correct to test 88.20 from below and then start another decline with the closest target at 80.50. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0 and may later continue trading to reach new lows.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after forming a new consolidation range around 88.20 and breaking it to the downside, Brent is still moving downwards with the short-term target at 83.00. Later, the market may correct to return to 88.20 and then resume falling towards 80.50. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is moving near the lows below 20. Later, the line may grow to rebound from 50 and resume falling to return to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Sep

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 26.09.2022 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is correcting inside the bearish channel. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 0.9705 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9310. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.0055. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.0145.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is rebounding from the bearish channel’s downside border. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 1645.00 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1585.00. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1705.00. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1745.00.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is rebounding from the support area. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen at 0.5765 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.5485. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6030. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6125.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Sep

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 26.09.2022 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern not far from the support area. At the moment, the asset may reverse in the form of a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside correctional target may be at 1645.00. At the same time, the opposite scenario implies that the price may continue falling to reach 1620.00 without any pullbacks up to the resistance level.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, NZDUSD has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern close to the support level. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of another ascending wave. In this case, the upside correctional target may be at 0.5770. After that, the asset may rebound from the resistance area and resume moving downwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may fall to reach 0.5625 without any pullbacks.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern near the support level. At the moment, the pair may reverse in the form of a new rising impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance area at 1.0725. Later, the market may rebound from this level and resume falling. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, in which the asset may continue falling to reach the support level at 1.0165 without testing the resistance area.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.09.26

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9826
Prev Close: 0.9683
% chg. over the last day: -1.47 %

The euro lost almost one and a half percent on Friday against the dollar. Yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries reached their highest level in more than 12 years, while German two-year bond yields exceeded 2% for the first time since late 2008. Markets are adjusting to the idea of higher interest rates at the same time that recession warnings are emerging. Analysts believe that in fact, by endorsing the idea of a recession, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell triggered an emotional bear market phase. Weak manufacturing PMI data in Europe added to the negative spiral. The strategists have now changed the rhetoric to: “the question now is not whether we are entering a recession, but how deep it will be.”

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9600
Resistance levels: 0.9808, 0.9865, 0.9949, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hour time frame is bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages, and sellers’ pressure is still high. The MACD indicator is negative, but divergence can be seen in several timeframes. It is best to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 0.9808 or 0.9866. Buy trades can be considered from the round level 0.9600, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the resistance level of 0.9949 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.26:

– Eurozone German GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German IFO Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1254
Prev Close: 1.0848
% chg. over the last day: -3.74 %

The British pound fell to a new 37-year low against the dollar after the country’s new finance minister announced historic tax cuts and a huge increase in borrowing. The new measures were announced by the government as harbingers of a new era for growth-oriented Britain. Investors are turning away from UK bonds amid an expected increase in government debt. Yields on UK 2-year government bonds have reached their highest level since October 2007, and yields on 10-year bonds have reached their highest level since 2010. Yields vary inversely with prices. As Britain has reached a record debt-to-GDP ratio, the pound could be revised downward if foreign investors are unwilling to finance the deficit. As a result, Britain risks a currency crisis in which the pound could reach parity with the dollar. According to Bloomberg, analysts expect UK interest rates to reach 5.2% in August 2023, with growing expectations that the Bank of England may raise interest rates by one percentage point at its next meeting in November.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.03
Resistance levels: 1.0775, 1.1021, 1.1210, 1.1449, 1.1626, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hour time frame is bearish. The price is currently trading below the moving averages, and sellers’ pressure remains. The MACD indicator is deeply negative, with no signs of a reversal. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames, the nearest resistance level is 1.0775. Buy trades can be considered from round levels, but only with confirmation. The nearest support level on the daily timeframe is 1.03.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.1210 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 142.31
Prev Close: 143.33
% chg. over the last day: +0.72 %

According to analysts, the Japanese Yen will trade in the 140-145 range for the rest of the year. On the one hand, the difference in monetary policy between Japan and the USA will put pressure on the yen. On the other hand, the Ministry of Finance of Japan has intervened in the currency for the first time since 1998 and indicated that it will defend the level of USD/JPY 145.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 140.60, 139.61, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80, 135.20
Resistance levels: 144.27, 145.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish despite the intervention. The MACD indicator has become positive, the price has consolidated above the moving averages. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on intraday time frames, but with confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 144.27 or 145.00, but only with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 140.60, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.26:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks at 08:35 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3485
Prev Close: 1.3587
% chg. over the last day: +0.76 %

The Canadian dollar has fallen to its lowest level against the US dollar since July 2020. The US dollar’s uptrend and falling oil prices remain the main catalysts for the Canadian dollar’s decline. On the other hand, analysts believe that when the US dollar’s uptrend reaches its end, the Canadian will be among the few currencies to reverse sharply as the Bank of Canada holds one of its highest interest rates. For the dollar index trend to end, the Fed has signaled that the end of the tightening phase is near. September forecasts suggest that the Canadian dollar may have already bottomed out against the US dollar.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3545, 1.3453, 1.3297, 1.3212, 1.3053, 1.2990, 1.2958, 1.2936, 1.2900
Resistance levels: 1.3662

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is positive, there is buying pressure, but the divergence is increasing. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3545. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3662, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.3297 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Sep

Panic selling prevails in financial markets due to aggressive central bank sentiment

By JustForex

Asset prices around the world fell sharply on Friday as central banks and governments stepped up their fight against inflation. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.42% (-3.69% for the week) and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.72% (-4.07% for the week). Technology index, NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.82% on Friday (-5.92% for the week).

Goldman Sachs strategists Friday lowered their year-end target for the benchmark S&P 500 US stock index to 3600 from 4300. Because monetary policy tends to lag, analysts estimate that the renewed aggressiveness by central banks means the global economy will become even weaker by the middle of next year. The Fed’s latest economic forecasts, released Wednesday along with a massive third straight 75 basis point interest rate hike, show that the Central Bank expects the nation’s unemployment rate to rise to 4.4% next year – up from 3.7% in August. Assuming the labor force remains unchanged, that would mean about 1.2 million people would be out of work. Analysts believe that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has triggered an emotional bear market phase by endorsing the idea of a recession.

Analysts now dismiss the option that the recession will be short and shallow. Experts are now predicting much tighter monetary policy from central banks and other unintended consequences. The question now is already how deep the recession will be and whether the economy can face any form of financial crisis and a serious global liquidity shock. The US benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yields have reached their highest level in more than 12 years, while German two-year bond yields have exceeded 2% for the first time since late 2008. In the UK, five-year bonds jumped by 50 bps, the biggest one-day jump since late 1991.

Canadian retail sales fell by 2.5% to $61.3 billion in July, the first decline in seven months. Sales fell in 9 of 11 sub-industries, representing 94.5% of retail sales.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. German DAX (DE30) fell by 1.97% (-3.16% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR 40) decreased by 2.28% (-4.39% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 2.46% (-4.68% for the week). British FTSE 100 (UK100) was 1.97% negative (-3.62% for the week).

The manufacturing PMI fell to a low in almost all economies of the region except France. These are clear signs of an impending recession in Europe.

In the UK, recession risks are also rising as the PMI business activity index signals a deepening recession. Companies report that the rising cost of living associated with the energy crisis and growing concerns about the outlook are suppressing demand and reducing output. Renewed supply constraints, soaring energy prices, and the rising cost of imports associated with the weakening pound exacerbate rising price pressures. The British pound and stock indexes fell sharply on Friday after the country’s finance minister announced historic tax cuts and a huge increase in borrowing. Investors are turning away from British bonds amid an expected increase in government debt. According to Bloomberg, analysts expect UK interest rates to reach 5.2% in August 2023, with growing expectations that the Bank of England may raise interest rates by one percentage point at its next meeting in November.

Italians are heading to the polls for a national vote that could bring back the country’s first female prime minister and first far-right-led government since the end of World War II. Incumbent President Mario Draghi, who was kicked out in July because of political strife, has agreed to stay as a caretaker.

Gold remains under pressure because of the rising US dollar index and US government bond yields. As long as the US Federal Reserve follows an aggressive tightening policy, precious metals will have no fundamental reason to rise.

Oil prices fell more than 5% to an eight-month low Friday as the US dollar hit its strongest level in more than two decades and fears that rising interest rates will lead to a recession in major economies, reducing demand for oil. As fears of global growth have turned to panic mode, this will weaken both economic activity and the short-term outlook for oil demand.

Asian markets traded lower last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 2.58% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended last week down by 4.08%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week in minus 3.92%.

The Chinese yuan finished the trading session at an almost 28-month low as the widening yield gap between the two largest economies in the world continues to put pressure on the Chinese currency.

In the commodities market, futures on orange juice (+6.43%), coffee (+2.32%), and wheat (+2.01%) showed the biggest gains by the end of the week. Natural gas futures (-11.89%), lumber (-9.6%), cotton (-6.8%), WTI oil (-6.29%), platinum (-5.34%), Brent oil (-5.15%), copper (-4.78%), silver (-2.82%) and gold (-1.89%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,693.23 −64.76 (−1.72%)

Dow Jones (US30) 29,590.41 −486.27 (−1.62%)

DAX (DE40) 12,284.19 −247.44 (−1.97%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,018.60 −140.92 (−1.97%)

USD Index 113.02 +1.67 (+1.50%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks at 08:35 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone German IFO Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

25 Sep

Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond Speculator bets rebounded before Fed Hikes

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond bets rebound in Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (653,551 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (123,299 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (27,655 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (15,766 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Fed Funds (-23,797 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-22,022 contracts), the Ultra US Bond (-19,316 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-4,568 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Bonds data this week was the rebound in both the Eurodollar and the 10-Year Bonds positioning. Both of these bond markets continue to have very bearish speculator positions and it has been that way since global central banks started to get more hawkish in raising their benchmark interest rates to fight inflation.

The Eurodollar turned from a bullish speculator position to bearish in May of 2021 while the 10-Year saw its speculative positioning flip bullish to bearish in October of 2021.

This week saw sharp gains for each of these markets with the Eurodollar jumping by a total of +653,551 net contracts and the 10-Year by +123,299 net contracts.

The bonds data was heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision coming out the next day that resulted in a 75 basis point hike. This likely prompted traders to take off positions that were deemed risky or to try and position for possible surprise outcomes of the Fed meeting.

The Eurodollar speculative change data for that Tuesday was the result of speculators sharply dropping their gross short positions by a total of -709,309 contracts. This is compared to a -55,758 contract decline in the gross long positions.

The 10-Year change, meanwhile, was the result of speculators raising their gross long positions by a total of +100,016 contracts in addition to reducing their gross short contracts by -23,283 to get the weekly net change of 123,299 contracts.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-20-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	8,320,365	0	-2,223,771	12	2,509,931	86	-286,160	41
FedFunds	1,719,198	58	24,164	43	-17,273	58	-6,891	42
2-Year	2,020,402	11	-342,415	13	438,181	100	-95,766	9
Long T-Bond	1,235,652	51	-99,539	52	78,958	39	20,581	69
10-Year	3,700,929	44	-229,590	38	342,348	63	-112,758	53
5-Year	3,974,321	50	-493,804	11	639,728	91	-145,924	41

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) leads the bonds category and is the only market above the midpoint of its 3-year range. The Fed Funds (42.6 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (10.8 percent), the Eurodollar (12.2 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (13.1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (42.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (45.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (37.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (21.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (27.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (53.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (35.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (43.8 percent)
Eurodollar (12.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.2 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Eurodollar (12.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The 10-Year Bond (8.6 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) and the Fed Funds (2.9 percent) fill out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-34.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the 5-Year Bond (-21.6 percent) followed by the US Treasury Bond (-16.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (2.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (6.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-34.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-52.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-21.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-28.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-16.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (2.3 percent)
Eurodollar (12.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-1.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,223,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 653,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,877,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	69.4	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	39.2	8.2
– Net Position:	-2,223,771	2,509,931	-286,160
– Gross Longs:	556,537	5,772,986	398,527
– Gross Shorts:	2,780,308	3,263,055	684,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	85.9	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-12.4	7.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 24,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	71.7	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	72.7	2.7
– Net Position:	24,164	-17,273	-6,891
– Gross Longs:	217,631	1,232,601	39,438
– Gross Shorts:	193,467	1,249,874	46,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	57.8	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-3.5	13.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -342,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -358,181 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	83.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	61.9	12.4
– Net Position:	-342,415	438,181	-95,766
– Gross Longs:	139,358	1,688,474	154,106
– Gross Shorts:	481,773	1,250,293	249,872
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.1	100.0	8.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.4	40.5	-18.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -493,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 27,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -521,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	84.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	68.6	11.0
– Net Position:	-493,804	639,728	-145,924
– Gross Longs:	266,452	3,366,448	291,033
– Gross Shorts:	760,256	2,726,720	436,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	91.3	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	19.3	-4.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -229,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 123,299 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -352,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	77.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	68.2	12.1
– Net Position:	-229,590	342,348	-112,758
– Gross Longs:	397,050	2,868,123	334,645
– Gross Shorts:	626,640	2,525,775	447,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	62.6	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-5.2	-3.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	81.1	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	70.0	18.0
– Net Position:	-28,808	152,285	-123,477
– Gross Longs:	113,657	1,109,324	123,083
– Gross Shorts:	142,465	957,039	246,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	79.4	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-1.3	-8.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -99,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,971 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	77.1	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	70.7	12.2
– Net Position:	-99,539	78,958	20,581
– Gross Longs:	76,399	952,947	170,936
– Gross Shorts:	175,938	873,989	150,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	38.8	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.9	19.8	-2.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -365,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -346,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	83.2	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	59.4	8.1
– Net Position:	-365,913	330,143	35,770
– Gross Longs:	71,306	1,152,370	147,949
– Gross Shorts:	437,219	822,227	112,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	76.5	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	0.0	3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News investing

25 Sep

Soybean Meal Bullish Speculator bets leads weekly COT Soft Commodities changes

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Soybean Meal leads positive Weekly Speculator Changes while Sugar see weekly drop

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (12,293 contracts) with Corn (11,108 contracts), Lean Hogs (10,953 contracts), Wheat (4,099 contracts), Soybean Oil (2,830 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,947 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Sugar (-30,985 contracts) with Soybeans (-7,337 contracts), Cotton (-4,086 contracts), Coffee (-1,195 contracts) and Cocoa (-67 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Soft Commodities data is the gains in Soybean Meal speculator bets. Speculative net positions rose for a second straight week and for the ninth time out of the past twelve weeks. This recent bullishness has pushed Soybean Meal net positions to the highest level of the past 26 weeks, dating back to March 22nd of this year. The speculator positioning for this market currently represents the highest strength score among all the futures markets (50+ markets) we cover with a 97.9 percent score and an extreme bullish reading.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-20-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,481,545	1	239,878	8	-261,568	94	21,690	36
Gold	469,395	5	65,722	0	-75,428	100	9,706	0
Silver	132,107	0	-1,640	12	-5,629	90	7,269	4
Copper	163,058	4	-20,286	22	23,215	82	-2,929	8
Palladium	5,993	1	-1,081	17	1,261	82	-180	33
Platinum	62,900	27	2,390	12	-5,496	89	3,106	5
Natural Gas	960,236	1	-155,711	32	121,308	69	34,403	62
Brent	164,025	11	-37,903	48	36,732	54	1,171	25
Heating Oil	292,634	32	14,097	63	-25,941	44	11,844	39
Soybeans	656,310	18	84,773	39	-55,485	70	-29,288	22
Corn	1,330,841	9	305,677	69	-241,238	38	-64,439	6
Coffee	191,433	5	41,072	74	-42,998	30	1,926	17
Sugar	744,972	8	37,345	44	-35,860	61	-1,485	6
Wheat	285,567	0	-4,029	14	9,982	74	-5,953	80

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (97.9 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (74.3 percent), Corn (69.1 percent) and Live Cattle (67.6 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (11.0 percent) and Wheat (13.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (69.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (67.7 percent)
Sugar (44.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (50.7 percent)
Coffee (74.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (75.4 percent)
Soybeans (39.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (41.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (40.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (97.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (91.0 percent)
Live Cattle (67.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (65.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (61.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (49.4 percent)
Cotton (46.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (49.3 percent)
Cocoa (11.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (11.0 percent)
Wheat (13.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (8.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (27.3 percent) and Soybean Oil (18.2 percent) sentiment have led the positive moves over the past six weeks. Corn (12.1 percent), Coffee (9.2 percent) and Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-1.3 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the next markets with lower trend scores being Wheat (-0.8 percent), Cocoa (-0.4 percent) and Lean Hogs (-0.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (12.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.9 percent)
Sugar (2.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (7.0 percent)
Coffee (9.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.0 percent)
Soybeans (-1.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-0.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (16.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.5 percent)
Live Cattle (27.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (39.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-0.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-0.6 percent)
Cotton (5.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.9 percent)
Wheat (-0.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-9.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 305,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,108 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 294,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	44.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	62.6	13.6
– Net Position:	305,677	-241,238	-64,439
– Gross Longs:	432,909	591,425	116,001
– Gross Shorts:	127,232	832,663	180,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	37.5	6.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.1	-11.5	-8.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 37,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -30,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	57.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	61.8	8.9
– Net Position:	37,345	-35,860	-1,485
– Gross Longs:	164,043	424,443	64,709
– Gross Shorts:	126,698	460,303	66,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	61.3	6.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-1.0	-7.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	47.4	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.9	69.9	3.7
– Net Position:	41,072	-42,998	1,926
– Gross Longs:	52,377	90,726	9,048
– Gross Shorts:	11,305	133,724	7,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	30.2	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-10.6	10.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	54.6	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	63.0	10.7
– Net Position:	84,773	-55,485	-29,288
– Gross Longs:	159,789	358,172	40,819
– Gross Shorts:	75,016	413,657	70,107
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	69.6	21.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	2.3	-5.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 57,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	50.3	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.9	66.8	5.6
– Net Position:	57,411	-66,740	9,329
– Gross Longs:	89,528	203,403	31,920
– Gross Shorts:	32,117	270,143	22,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	58.2	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.2	-19.3	16.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 114,177 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.2	39.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.0	78.6	6.4
– Net Position:	126,470	-151,854	25,384
– Gross Longs:	138,080	156,677	50,445
– Gross Shorts:	11,610	308,531	25,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	11.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.9	4.0	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-8.7	12.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.2	32.4	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	54.1	12.7
– Net Position:	70,367	-65,032	-5,335
– Gross Longs:	120,432	96,998	32,801
– Gross Shorts:	50,065	162,030	38,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.6	24.2	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.3	-24.1	-17.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.8	34.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	54.3	13.3
– Net Position:	50,115	-41,565	-8,550
– Gross Longs:	89,178	71,385	19,095
– Gross Shorts:	39,063	112,950	27,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.3	44.4	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	2.8	-11.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,086 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,040 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.1	47.5	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	70.5	4.1
– Net Position:	43,954	-49,713	5,759
– Gross Longs:	71,269	102,276	14,638
– Gross Shorts:	27,315	151,989	8,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	53.8	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-6.9	19.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -67 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	46.3	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	45.4	3.5
– Net Position:	-5,941	2,779	3,162
– Gross Longs:	97,755	138,572	13,754
– Gross Shorts:	103,696	135,793	10,592
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.0	90.3	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	0.6	-2.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	39.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	36.1	12.0
– Net Position:	-4,029	9,982	-5,953
– Gross Longs:	88,644	113,055	28,213
– Gross Shorts:	92,673	103,073	34,166
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	73.9	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	0.1	2.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News investing Soft Commodities

25 Sep

WTI Crude Oil leads Energy Speculator Bet Changes this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

WTI Crude Oil leads the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT energy market speculator bets were a little higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (12,821 contracts) with Gasoline (1,481 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (1,120 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (117 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-9,996 contracts) with Heating Oil (-1,967 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-20-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,481,545	1	239,878	8	-261,568	94	21,690	36
Gold	469,395	5	65,722	0	-75,428	100	9,706	0
Silver	132,107	0	-1,640	12	-5,629	90	7,269	4
Copper	163,058	4	-20,286	22	23,215	82	-2,929	8
Palladium	5,993	1	-1,081	17	1,261	82	-180	33
Platinum	62,900	27	2,390	12	-5,496	89	3,106	5
Natural Gas	960,236	1	-155,711	32	121,308	69	34,403	62
Brent	164,025	11	-37,903	48	36,732	54	1,171	25
Heating Oil	292,634	32	14,097	63	-25,941	44	11,844	39
Soybeans	656,310	18	84,773	39	-55,485	70	-29,288	22
Corn	1,330,841	9	305,677	69	-241,238	38	-64,439	6
Coffee	191,433	5	41,072	74	-42,998	30	1,926	17
Sugar	744,972	8	37,345	44	-35,860	61	-1,485	6
Wheat	285,567	0	-4,029	14	9,982	74	-5,953	80

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (68.0 percent) and Heating Oil (63.2 percent) lead the energy category this week and are the only two markets above their midpoint of the past three years (50 percent).

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) and Gasoline (19.1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent). Natural Gas (31.8 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (47.6 percent) are the next lowest strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (4.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (47.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (45.7 percent)
Natural Gas (31.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (34.8 percent)
Gasoline (19.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (17.6 percent)
Heating Oil (63.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (66.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (68.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (67.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) and Gasoline (1.6 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Heating Oil (-15.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Natural Gas (-9.1 percent) followed by Brent Crude Oil (-6.2 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-7.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-6.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-10.5 percent)
Natural Gas (-9.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.2 percent)
Gasoline (1.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-5.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-15.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-8.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (8.4 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 239,878 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	39.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.9	57.4	3.5
– Net Position:	239,878	-261,568	21,690
– Gross Longs:	342,588	589,445	73,243
– Gross Shorts:	102,710	851,013	51,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	93.7	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-6.3	-9.5

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,903 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	53.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	31.3	4.0
– Net Position:	-37,903	36,732	1,171
– Gross Longs:	25,663	88,006	7,706
– Gross Shorts:	63,566	51,274	6,535
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.6	54.4	25.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	7.2	-8.5

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -155,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -145,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	43.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	30.8	3.3
– Net Position:	-155,711	121,308	34,403
– Gross Longs:	153,110	417,431	66,185
– Gross Shorts:	308,821	296,123	31,782
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	69.2	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	10.9	-10.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	49.6	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	68.5	6.8
– Net Position:	47,073	-48,192	1,119
– Gross Longs:	77,904	126,887	18,448
– Gross Shorts:	30,831	175,079	17,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	85.1	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	2.0	-24.2

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,967 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,064 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	54.7	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	63.6	9.3
– Net Position:	14,097	-25,941	11,844
– Gross Longs:	40,428	160,165	39,038
– Gross Shorts:	26,331	186,106	27,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.2	43.6	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	11.2	-0.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,434 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	70.0	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	55.3	0.1
– Net Position:	-10,317	10,031	286
– Gross Longs:	17,200	47,853	361
– Gross Shorts:	27,517	37,822	75
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	4.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	31.9	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-9.0	0.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News investing

23 Sep

Murrey Math Lines 23.09.2022 (Brent, S&P 500)

Article By RoboForex.com

BRENT

As we can see in the H4 chart, Brent is trading below the 200-day Moving Average it to indicate a possible descending tendency. The Relative Strength Index has rebounded from the descending trendline; it is still moving downwards. In this case, the pair is expected to continue falling towards the support at 4/8 (87.50). However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the resistance at 5/8 (90.62) to the upside. After that, the instrument may move upwards to reach 6/8 (93.75).

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its decline.

S&P 500

In the H4 chart, the S&P 500 index has reached the “oversold area”. The Relative Strength Index is testing 30, confirming that the asset is oversold. In this case, the price is expected to rebound from 0/8 (3750.0) and resume moving upwards to reach the resistance at 1/8 (3906.2). However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the support at 0/8 (3770.0) to the downside. After that, the instrument may continue fall towards -1/8 (3595.8).

As we can see in the M15 chart, the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator is pretty far away from the price, that’s why the pair may resume trading upwards only after rebounding from 0/8 in the H4 chart.

Article By RoboForex.com

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