Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 275

Markets Rally As Sentiment Improves

Asian shares rose on Tuesday, tracking the positive overnight cues from Wall Street as global sentiment improved. Robust corporate earnings coupled with normality returning to UK markets following the mini-budget saga has rekindled investor risk appetite. In Europe, stock futures point to a higher open along with US markets. Given how the economic calendar is relatively light this week, sentiment may be driven by earnings with Goldman Sachs and Netflix under the spotlight later in the day. A positive set of numbers for the third quarter could boost risk appetite further, sending Wall Street higher.

Looking at currencies, the dollar lost ground against its major peers thanks to the risk-on environment while gold inched higher. Sterling has appreciated against all G10 currencies this week after the UK government scrapped most of the mini-budget in a dramatic U-turn. In other news, China delayed the release of GDP and other economic data that was scheduled for release Tuesday morning as the Communist Party’s leadership gathered.

Pound rises on dramatic budget U-turn

In the latest developments revolving around the UK government’s mini-budget, Liz Truss apologised for going “too far too fast” with economic reforms. This comes after the new Chancellor delivered an emergency statement yesterday that practically reversed almost all of the original tax cuts.

Although markets initially offered a muted reaction to the statement, the pound later appreciated as some calm and stability returned to the UK gilt market. Jeremy Hunt stated that the tax changes would raise an extra £32 billion. But there is still a gap in the UK’s finances that will need to be filled either by tax rises or public spending cuts. Then the question may be how will the former impact on households who are already dealing with an income squeeze and rising borrowing rates. Whether the government’s U-turn will be enough to conclude this saga and fully calm markets from the recent chaos, time will tell.

It may be wise to keep a close eye on the UK’s latest inflation figures published on Wednesday. Inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 9.9% YoY. A hot CPI report could fuel expectations around the BoE moving ahead with a supersized rate hike in November.

In regard to the pound, it has been on a rollercoaster ride over the past few weeks but prices seem to be pushing higher. A break back above 1.1400 could trigger a push towards 1.1500. Should prices struggle to move higher, bears are likely to target 1.0925 and 1.0850, respectively.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold seems to be drawing some strength from a softer dollar this week with prices trading around $1656 as of writing. Nevertheless, the path of least resistance points south with Fed rate hike expectations and rising Treasury yields capping upside gains. Should prices slip back below $1640, this could open a path toward $1615 and $1600. A break back above $1675 would encourage bulls to target the psychological $1700 level.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Oct

Trade Of The Week: Sterling Influenced By Political Drama

By ForexTime

The last few weeks have been wild for sterling as political chaos haunted investor attraction towards the currency. A toxic combination of uncertainty, confusion, and repeated U-turns on the government’s mini-budget coupled with central bank intervention placed sterling on a chaotic rollercoaster ride! After collapsing to an all-time low back in late September, prices have rebounded but remain in a downtrend.

Before we unpack what to expect from the pound this week, it is worth keeping in mind that the currency is not only dealing with political drama but mounting concerns over economic growth. Given how inflation continues to squeeze households and fuel speculation around the BoE launching a monetary policy bazooka, this certainly does not bode well for sterling. While a jumbo-sized rate hike could tame the inflation beast, it may come at the cost of economic growth.

The low down…

Political developments in the UK have felt like a blockbuster TV series over the past couple of days.

After making repeated U-turns on the mini-budget, British Prime Minister Liz Truss made another drastic U-turn last Friday by scrapping plans to freeze corporation tax in 2023. This decision was taken just hours after sacking Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor of the Exchequer and replacing him with Jeremy Hunt. Despite these dramatic steps and a short press conference, markets were unamused with some even raising questions over her future as prime minister.

Interestingly, the UK markets kicked off the new week on a positive note after the Treasury released an unexpected statement at 6 am UK. The treasury notified markets that it would “bring forward measures from the medium-term fiscal plan”, to cool nerves, reduce uncertainty and provide fresh clarity. Sterling has rallied on growing expectations that more of Prime Minister Liz Truss’s tax cuts would be reversed with the GBPUSD trading around 1.1300 as of writing.

The week ahead…

The new Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt hijacked the spotlight on Monday after delivering an emergency statement that practically reversed almost all of Liz Truss’s mini-budget tax cuts. Markets offered a calm reaction to this major development with the pound stabilizing as investors evaluated how these changes may influence the UK economy and consumers. Although Hunt stated that the tax changes would raise an extra £32 billion more a year, this could hit households who are already dealing with an income squeeze. One key thing that stood out was the government potentially cutting support on energy bulls after April 2023. Liz Truss initially promised to support UK households by capping the price of energy bills at no more than £2500 for two years, but this will now last until April 2023.

Hunt is scheduled to make another speech on Monday afternoon to provide further clarity on the unprecedented fiscal U-turn. Whether this will be enough to conclude this saga and fully calm markets from the recent chaos, time will tell.

In other news, the UK publishes its latest inflation figures mid-week which could trigger additional volatility. Inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 9.9% YoY. A hot CPI report may fan expectations around the BoE moving ahead with a supersized rate hike in November. While such a hike could boost Sterling, gains are likely to be limited by recession fears. If inflation cools in September, this could allow the BoE to approach inflation less aggressively. Another important report to keep an eye on will be the retail sales figures on Friday.

Pound breakout on the horizon?

Talking technicals, the GBPUSD remains in a wide range on the daily charts. Resistance can be found at 1.1500 and support around 1.0925. A break back above 1.1300 could trigger an incline towards 1.1500. Should prices struggle to push higher, bears are likely to target 1.0925 and 1.0850, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Oct

Crude Oil has Squandered All of Its Gains

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The commodities market starts the new week in October with attempts to stabilise. The Brent barrel had previously “sagged”, but is now returning to USD 92.40. It turns out that the entire positive effect of the OPEC+ decision to reduce black gold production quotas for November has now been exhausted.

This week, however, the focus of the commodities market will be on economic data from China. The main thing investors will be interested in is GDP figures for Q3, where a 3.5% y/y increase is expected, as well as figures for industrial production and retail sales. Forecasts look very weak due to the ongoing coronavirus restrictions.

Fresh data from Baker Hughes reflected an increase of 8 rigs in the US for the week up to 610. Oil production in the country stands at 12 million bpd, IEA expects to rise to 12.3 million bpd by end-December.

On the H4 Brent chart, an upside wave to 95.40 and a correction to 91.50 have been worked out. Today the market has started to form another upside wave to the level of 95.66. We expect its break up and continuation of the trend towards 99.55. The target is local. After it is reached, we will consider the probability of correction to the level of 95.66. Further – growth to 105,50. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD oscillator. Its signal line is above the zero mark and it is ready to continue growth to new highs.

On the H1 Brent chart, the corrective wave channel has been broken upwards and quotations are trading in a rising structure towards the 95.66 level. The target in the next growth wave is the first one. After it is broken down, a correction link to 93.85 is not ruled out. Further – growth to the level of 97.00 with the prospect of trend continuation to 99.55. The target is local. Technically, this scenario is also confirmed by theStochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above the 50 mark. We expect the continuation of growth towards 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News

17 Oct

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 17.10.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD worked off a downward wave to 0.9707 and performed a rising link to 0.9767. Today the market is forming a downward structure to the level 0.9670. Its breakdown will open the potential for the development of the wave to 0.9544.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD performed a downward momentum towards 1.1151. Today the market is forming a correction to 1.1265. After its completion we will consider the continuation of the trend to the level 1.1033 with the prospect of stretching this wave to 1.0930.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has worked its way up to 148.83. At the moment, the market is forming a consolidation range below it. An exit upwards will open up the potential for growth to 149.40. On the way down, a drop to 147.70 is possible.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF continues to form a consolidation range above 0.9993. With the exit from it upwards, we expect the continuation of the growth wave to 1.0202. The target is local.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD pair continues a downward trend towards 0.6166. After this level is reached, consider the possibility of a correction to 0.6255. Further, a decline to the level of 0.6140.

BRENT

BRENT has worked off a correction wave to 91.66. Today, we see the development of an upside structure towards 95.55. A break up will open up the potential for a continuation of the trend towards 99.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

GOLD has worked off the downside wave to 1640.15. Today the market is forming a growth impulse to 1660.80. After this level is worked out, we expect a decline to 1650.55.

S&P 500

The stock index continues to form a consolidation range around the 3606.0 level. A continuation of the downside wave to 3499.0 is seen today. And with a breakdown of this level downwards, the potential for reaching 3410.0 will open up.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Oct

Yen heading for new lows. Overview for 17.10.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

Japanese yen paired with the US dollar has returned to a devaluation strategy. The current quote in USDJPY is 148.70. It is close to a 32-year high.

Morning statistics showed that Japan’s final volume of industrial production for August rose to 3.4% y/y, while a gain of 2.7% y/y was expected, as before. This is not a bad signal, although there are opinions that it has a purely local nature.

Japanese monetary policy makers have spoken this morning and said it is appropriate to continue monetary policy easing. The Prime Minister noted the possibility of taking action against currency speculation.

The yen’s devaluation is a consequence of the difference between the monetary strategies of the BoJ and the world’s leading central banks. The BoE is now probably the only one that implements economic stimulus and keeps the interest rate negative.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Oct

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.10.17

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9772
Prev Close: 0.9720
% chg. over the last day: -0.53 %

On Friday, ECB representative Mārtiņš Kazāks pointed out that the ECB no longer needs to hang on to a large balance, so a rate hike of 75 basis points in October is appropriate, 50 BPS or 75 BPS in December. Other ECB representatives, namely Chief Economist Philip Lane and Klaas Knot from the Netherlands, are of the same opinion. At the same time, Mr. Knot said that the ECB needs to raise rates above the neutral level of 2%. At the moment, the ECB is keeping the rate at 1.25%.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9701
Resistance levels: 0.9856, 0.9961, 1.0058, 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but the pressure of buyers remains. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 0.9701, but with additional confirmation in the form of reverse initiative. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 0.9856, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9666 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.17:

– Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1318
Prev Close: 1.1161
% chg. over the last day: -1.41 %

British government bonds will trade this week without the support of the Bank of England’s emergency bond-buying program, which ended on Friday. Britain’s new chancellor Jeremy Hunt said over the weekend that he could restore the country’s public finances. Reports that the government is preparing to dramatically alter planned tax cuts helped ease fears about public finances, but that must translate into concrete plans to avoid another bond sell-off. According to analysts, the British economy is at risk of slipping into recession next year. Bank governor Andrew Bailey said Saturday that he believes a significant rate hike will be needed in early November.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1186, 1.1093, 1.0915, 1.0817
Resistance levels: 1.1353, 1.1478, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but buyers’ pressure remains. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1186 or 1.1229, but better after confirmation. It is better to look for sell trades on intraday time frames. The nearest resistance level is 1.1353.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.0915 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 147.07
Prev Close: 148.74
% chg. over the last day: +1.14 %

The Bank of Japan may take new steps to strengthen the currency. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe said Saturday that recent fluctuations in the yen have been “too fast and too one-sided,” indicating concerns about the possible economic consequences of the currency falling to a 32-year low against the dollar. Japan intervened in the currency market in September to stop the yen’s plummet. However, the divergence in monetary policy between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan is still pushing the USD/JPY quotes up. BoJ governor Kuroda said on Saturday that inflation in Japan is rising mainly because of cost-push factors, so the Bank of Japan will continue to maintain its soft monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 147.67, 146.21, 145.93, 144.91, 144.16, 143.00, 140.60, 139.61
Resistance levels: 149.00, 150.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading above the moving levels. The price is trading above the moving levels. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and the pressure of buyers remains. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be searched for on intraday time frames from the support level of 147.67, but with confirmation. Sell deals can be searched from the resistance level of 149.00 or 150.00, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 145.95, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.17:

– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3740
Prev Close: 1.3881
% chg. over the last day: +1.03 %

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem pointed out at the International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington that overall inflation in Canada has declined by about a percentage point over the past couple of months. Still, there is not yet a reversal in the core inflation components as inflation continues to rise for goods and services. Macklem also added that short-term inflation expectations are rising along with inflation, and the longer inflation remains high, the greater the risk that short-term inflation expectations will turn into longer-term inflation expectations. However, the Governor of the Bank of Canada added that investors should not expect a recession in Canada, only a slowdown in growth.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3816, 1.3619, 1.3583, 1.3535, 1.3454
Resistance levels: 1.3858, 1.3968

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading above the moving average lines. The MACD indicator is positive, but buyer pressure is decreasing. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3816, but after confirmation in the form of an impulse initiative. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3854, but only after additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3706, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.10.17:

– Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Oct

Inflation risks are still skewed upward. China is targeting green energy

By JustForex

The US dollar rose about 0.45% last week, helped by rising US Treasury bond yields. While the overall annual consumer price Index slowed slightly in September, the core Index increased to its highest level since 1982, a sign that price pressures in the US economy remain consistently high. With inflation risks skewed upward, the Fed is likely to continue raising interest rates in the coming months, even if a cycle of aggressive tightening triggers a recession in the economy. On Saturday, the US Fed spokesman Bullard said last week’s consumer price Index data showed that inflation had become “harmful” and left the door open for a 75 basis point rate hike at the upcoming Fed meetings in November and December, but added that it’s still too early to talk about it.

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.34% (+0.73% for the week), and the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 2.37% (-1.77% for the week). The technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 3.08% on Friday (-3.18% for the week).

This week is the start of the third-quarter earnings season in the United States. Analysts expect S&P 500 corporate earnings to rise 4.1% year-over-year, the slowest growth since the fourth quarter of 2020.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said there was a “broad consensus” at the IMF and World Bank meeting that inflation is the most immediate threat to “the present and the future.”

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.67% (+2.15% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.90% (+2.16% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.46% (-0.12% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Friday with 0.15% (-1.89% for the week).

According to Pierre Wunsch of the ECB Governing Council, government efforts to ease the energy crisis risk forcing the European Central Bank to raise interest rates more aggressively. Wunsch believes that it is already “reasonable” for the ECB to raise the cost of borrowing to 3% from 0.75%. Wunsch also added that a technical recession, usually defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking output, is now a “baseline scenario” in Europe. However, that by itself is not enough to keep inflation under control.

Britain’s new finance minister, Jeremy Hunt, promised to restore confidence in the British economy by fully reporting on the government’s tax and spending plans. British Prime Minister Liz Truss appointed Hunt in an attempt to salvage her leadership as confidence in her ability to run the country dwindled. Investors have been actively selling British government bonds since Sept. 23, when Hunt’s predecessor, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced a series of unwarranted tax cuts without publishing a series of independent economic forecasts. The side effects forced the Bank of England to intervene in an emergency to protect pension funds and increased the cost of mortgages, further exacerbating the finances of Britons. The first test for Hunt and Truss will come as early as today when trading on the bond market resumes without the support of the Bank of England’s bond purchase program, which expired on Friday.

In the oil market, the situation remains tense. The White House noted last week that OPEC+ production cuts would boost Russia’s revenues, increasing funding for its invasion of Ukraine. In response, Saudi Arabia’s minister said the October 5 decision to cut production by 2 million BPD was unanimous and based on economic factors, with OPEC+ countries seeking to maintain balance in oil markets. Experts believe that OPEC+ is manipulating prices to keep the price of “black gold” above $90 per barrel.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 0.43% over the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 4.94% over the week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) lost 0.06% over the week.

In his speech at the opening session of the ruling Communist Party’s five-year congress, Xi Jinping said that China will prioritize protecting the environment and promoting a green lifestyle and that preserving nature is an integral part of building a modern socialist country. China will support low-carbon industries, pursue an “energy revolution,” and build a new energy system while continuing to promote the clean and efficient use of coal. “China’s international influence, attractiveness, and ability to shape the world have increased significantly,” Xi said Sunday in Beijing in a wide-ranging speech. Nevertheless, he warned of a more volatile international environment, saying that China must be prepared for “strong winds, high waves, and even dangerous storms.” Analysts believe that the issue here is an increase in tensions between the US and China. Beijing’s actions to suppress dissent in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, its lack of transparency about Covid origins, its partnership with Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine, and its more aggressive stance toward Taiwan have all increased tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Xi Jinping is expected to retain his position and consolidate his power when the new leadership is announced in about a week. Economists also expect Beijing to miss its annual gross domestic product target by a wide margin this year for the first time since it began setting such targets in the early 1990s.

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said Saturday that inflation in Japan is rising mainly because of cost-push factors, so the Bank of Japan will continue to keep its monetary policy soft.

On the commodities market, lumber futures (+10.55%), oats (+4.45%), and orange juice (+1.43%) showed the biggest gains by the end of the week. Futures on silver (-10.15%), coffee (-9.54%), palladium (-8.59%), WTI oil (-7.65%), Brent oil (-6.6%), natural gas (-4.03%), gasoline (-3.77%) and gold (-3.46%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,583.07 −86.84 (−2.37%)

Dow Jones (US30) 29,634.83 −403.89 (−1.34%)

DAX (DE40) 12,437.81 +82.23 (+0.67%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 6,858.79 +8.52 (+0.12%)

USD Index 113.30 +0.94 (+0.83%)

Important events for today:

– China Export (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– China Imports (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Oct

Weekly Energy Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Heating Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Heating Oil

COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (17,221 contracts) with Heating Oil (3,668 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (176 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gasoline (-4,974 contracts) with Natural Gas (-3,007 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-2,068 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-11-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,499,498	3	259,220	13	-283,626	88	24,406	41
Gold	431,395	0	94,420	14	-103,728	87	9,308	3
Silver	125,623	0	7,389	22	-15,603	80	8,214	10
Copper	167,449	8	-15,899	24	16,903	80	-1,004	19
Palladium	6,890	5	-754	19	810	79	-56	41
Platinum	52,435	9	5,928	17	-8,690	85	2,762	5
Natural Gas	974,468	5	-162,103	30	130,099	72	32,004	56
Brent	163,113	11	-41,888	41	38,882	58	3,006	50
Heating Oil	275,262	25	19,423	71	-38,448	30	19,025	64
Soybeans	694,960	26	55,769	30	-30,614	77	-25,155	29
Corn	1,408,939	20	325,121	72	-258,225	35	-66,896	5
Coffee	188,198	3	40,534	73	-43,359	30	2,825	29
Sugar	687,209	0	101,115	57	-135,145	43	34,030	50
Wheat	307,901	9	-1,990	16	8,705	72	-6,715	76

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Commodity Index & Heating Oil

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.3 percent) and Heating Oil (71.0 percent) lead the energy markets with scores above 50 percent.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (12.8 percent) and Gasoline (15.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and both are in extreme bearish levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (12.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (8.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (40.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (44.4 percent)
Natural Gas (29.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (30.8 percent)
Gasoline (15.3 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (20.3 percent)
Heating Oil (71.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (65.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (77.6 percent)

Bloomberg Commodity Index leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (18.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. WTI Crude Oil (7.9 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

Natural Gas (-10.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Heating Oil (-8.5 percent) followed by Gasoline (-6.4 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-1.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-3.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-5.7 percent)
Natural Gas (-10.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-9.2 percent)
Gasoline (-6.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-4.5 percent)
Heating Oil (-8.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-8.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (18.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (18.6 percent)

Individual COT Energy Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 259,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 241,999 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	39.0	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.7	57.9	3.5
– Net Position:	259,220	-283,626	24,406
– Gross Longs:	345,258	584,609	76,359
– Gross Shorts:	86,038	868,235	51,953
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.8	87.7	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-7.4	-4.4

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,820 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	51.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	27.6	3.1
– Net Position:	-41,888	38,882	3,006
– Gross Longs:	28,606	83,836	7,999
– Gross Shorts:	70,494	44,954	4,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	57.9	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	3.8	-5.7

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -162,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,096 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	44.4	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	31.0	3.5
– Net Position:	-162,103	130,099	32,004
– Gross Longs:	140,917	432,665	65,929
– Gross Shorts:	303,020	302,566	33,925
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	71.9	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	11.9	-10.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	53.0	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	71.9	5.6
– Net Position:	43,282	-48,643	5,361
– Gross Longs:	73,663	136,457	19,739
– Gross Shorts:	30,381	185,100	14,378
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.3	84.7	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	4.6	10.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	48.4	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	62.4	9.6
– Net Position:	19,423	-38,448	19,025
– Gross Longs:	41,620	133,301	45,373
– Gross Shorts:	22,197	171,749	26,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.0	30.3	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	5.7	1.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	76.4	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	63.8	0.2
– Net Position:	-7,623	7,468	155
– Gross Longs:	11,559	45,105	253
– Gross Shorts:	19,182	37,637	98
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	22.0	15.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-18.4	-6.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Energy Financial News investing

15 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Speculator positions led by jump in Sugar bullish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by jump in Sugar bets

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other eight markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (54,028 contracts) with Corn (20,159 contracts) and Cocoa (13,522 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Soybeans (-10,988 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-9,321 contracts), Wheat (-7,614 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,461 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,453 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,165 contracts), Coffee (-1,617 contracts) and Cotton (-1,578 contracts) all having lower bets on the week.

Highlighting this week’s COT softs data was the jump in speculator bets for Sugar. This week’s speculator positions rose by over +54,000 contracts and the position has now risen in six of the past nine weeks (total gain of +75,050 contracts in that period). This bullishness has now pushed the overall Sugar net speculator standing (+101,115 contracts) to the most bullish level of the past twelve weeks, dating back to July 19th. Sugar prices trade near their highest levels since 2017 as production issues and tight supply keeps the market buoyant.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-11-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,499,498	3	259,220	13	-283,626	88	24,406	41
Gold	431,395	0	94,420	14	-103,728	87	9,308	3
Silver	125,623	0	7,389	22	-15,603	80	8,214	10
Copper	167,449	8	-15,899	24	16,903	80	-1,004	19
Palladium	6,890	5	-754	19	810	79	-56	41
Platinum	52,435	9	5,928	17	-8,690	85	2,762	5
Natural Gas	974,468	5	-162,103	30	130,099	72	32,004	56
Brent	163,113	11	-41,888	41	38,882	58	3,006	50
Heating Oil	275,262	25	19,423	71	-38,448	30	19,025	64
Soybeans	694,960	26	55,769	30	-30,614	77	-25,155	29
Corn	1,408,939	20	325,121	72	-258,225	35	-66,896	5
Coffee	188,198	3	40,534	73	-43,359	30	2,825	29
Sugar	687,209	0	101,115	57	-135,145	43	34,030	50
Wheat	307,901	9	-1,990	16	8,705	72	-6,715	76

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal, Coffee and Corn

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (81.3 percent), Coffee (73.1 percent) and Corn (71.6 percent) lead the soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Meal remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Sugar (57.4 percent) comes in as the only other soft commodity markets above 50 percent in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (16.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (71.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (69.0 percent)
Sugar (57.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (46.3 percent)
Coffee (73.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (74.6 percent)
Soybeans (30.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (44.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (81.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (86.4 percent)
Live Cattle (29.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (33.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (32.5 percent)
Cotton (37.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (38.9 percent)
Cocoa (30.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.0 percent)
Wheat (16.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (26.4 percent)

Strength Trends led by Wheat this week

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Wheat (12.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Sugar (7.9 percent), Corn (5.3 percent) and Cocoa (5.3 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-26.2 percent) and Live Cattle (-25.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Cotton (-11.6 percent) followed by Soybean Meal (-10.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.3 percent)
Sugar (7.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.3 percent)
Coffee (-7.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.1 percent)
Soybeans (-8.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-10.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-6.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-25.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-23.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-26.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-30.3 percent)
Cotton (-11.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-10.2 percent)
Cocoa (5.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.3 percent)
Wheat (12.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (18.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 325,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 304,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	45.3	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	63.6	13.3
– Net Position:	325,121	-258,225	-66,896
– Gross Longs:	445,776	637,863	120,700
– Gross Shorts:	120,655	896,088	187,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.6	35.1	4.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-4.6	-5.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 101,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 54,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	49.9	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	69.6	6.9
– Net Position:	101,115	-135,145	34,030
– Gross Longs:	183,050	343,017	81,678
– Gross Shorts:	81,935	478,162	47,648
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	42.5	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-11.9	29.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	47.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	70.4	3.4
– Net Position:	40,534	-43,359	2,825
– Gross Longs:	51,359	89,131	9,226
– Gross Shorts:	10,825	132,490	6,401
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	30.4	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	7.0	5.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 55,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,757 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	57.3	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	61.7	10.8
– Net Position:	55,769	-30,614	-25,155
– Gross Longs:	129,287	398,241	49,837
– Gross Shorts:	73,518	428,855	74,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	77.3	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	6.9	9.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 57,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	47.9	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	65.3	5.9
– Net Position:	57,879	-68,189	10,310
– Gross Longs:	90,140	187,787	33,605
– Gross Shorts:	32,261	255,976	23,295
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	57.3	51.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-3.4	5.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 96,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	41.3	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	74.1	7.1
– Net Position:	96,601	-118,422	21,821
– Gross Longs:	116,691	148,712	47,271
– Gross Shorts:	20,090	267,134	25,450
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	21.4	46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	10.1	0.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 39,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,118 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	35.8	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	51.2	12.5
– Net Position:	39,665	-40,376	711
– Gross Longs:	89,016	94,076	33,558
– Gross Shorts:	49,351	134,452	32,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	58.0	99.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.2	23.8	11.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	38.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	46.6	12.9
– Net Position:	19,141	-14,847	-4,294
– Gross Longs:	62,550	72,029	19,735
– Gross Shorts:	43,409	86,876	24,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.6	75.9	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	24.3	18.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	50.3	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	66.9	4.3
– Net Position:	35,901	-38,518	2,617
– Gross Longs:	72,940	116,851	12,517
– Gross Shorts:	37,039	155,369	9,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	63.7	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	14.3	-34.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	43.3	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	48.7	3.5
– Net Position:	13,686	-16,330	2,644
– Gross Longs:	98,173	129,248	12,958
– Gross Shorts:	84,487	145,578	10,314
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	71.3	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-3.3	-20.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	40.9	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	38.1	11.3
– Net Position:	-1,990	8,705	-6,715
– Gross Longs:	84,943	126,068	28,094
– Gross Shorts:	86,933	117,363	34,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	72.0	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-8.8	-17.1

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14 Oct

Biopharma Co.’s Shares Roll to New 52-Week High Price

Source: Streetwise Reports (10/12/22)

Shares of DICE Therapeutics Inc. traded 62% higher yesterday and established a new 52-week intraday high after the company reported positive topline data from its Phase 1 DC-806 Psoriasis study.

Biopharmaceutical company DICE Therapeutics Inc. (DICE:NASDAQ), which utilizes its proprietary technology platform to create and develop novel oral therapeutic candidates for use in the treatment of chronic immune and other diseases, yesterday announced “positive topline data from its Phase 1 clinical trial of DC-806, an oral small molecule antagonist of the pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-17.”

The company advised that DC-806 is its leading interleukin-17 (IL-17) antagonist that is being evaluated as a potential treatment for psoriasis. The firm noted that DC-806 has been well tolerated in the Phase 1 trial across all dose groups in healthy volunteers and psoriasis patients with a robust PK profile.

DICE Therapeutics indicated that both high and low doses of DC-806 administered to participants in the study provided clear beneficial pharmacodynamic results on two distinct biomarkers.

DICE shares opened 79% higher yesterday at $44.18 (+$14.265, +57.87%) over last Friday’s $24.65 closing price and reached a new 52-week high price yesterday morning of $45.99.

The company explained that the randomized, double-blind Phase 1 trial was designed to evaluate the safety and pharmacokinetics of DC-806 in healthy volunteers and to serve as the basis for the potential use treatment of psoriasis patients.

The study included overlapping modules that included a Phase 1a single ascending dose, Phase 1b multiple ascending doses, and Phase 1c, which was structured under a proof-of-concept context for use in treating patients with psoriasis.

The firm emphasized that in the clinical proof-of-concept portion of the trial (Phase 1c), “psoriasis patients achieved with a mean percentage reduction in PASI from baseline at four weeks of 43.7% in the high dose group compared to 13.3% in the placebo group.”

DICE Therapeutics advised that the data gathered in the trials provide staunch support for advancing DC-806 as a potential oral agent for treating psoriasis. The firm added that it intends to file an investigational new drug (IND) application with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) during H1/23 and stated that it plans to move forward with a dose-ranging Phase 2b clinical trial in patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis in H1/23.

DICE Therapeutics’ CEO Kevin Judice, Ph.D. stated, “We are extremely excited by the overall clinical profile of DC-806 and clear proof-of-concept in psoriasis in this Phase 1 clinical trial, which we believe is the first-ever clinical demonstration of direct inhibition of a cytokine with a small molecule.”

Judice continued, “We believe these data not only support further development of DC-806 as a potential best-in-class oral therapy for psoriasis, but also may unlock additional IL-17-mediated disease indications given DC-806’s excellent safety profile, strong PK data, and robust dose-dependent target engagement.”

The company’s Chief Medical Officer, Tim Lu, M.D., Ph.D., remarked, “Based on the Phase 1 clinical trial, we believe DC-806 has the potential to be the best-in-class oral therapeutic agent for patients with psoriasis…Data from this Phase 1 clinical trial provides early evidence for the potential differentiation of DC-806 on efficacy, safety, and ease of use. We look forward to advancing DC-806 into a Phase 2b clinical trial to optimize dosing and further explore peak efficacy with a longer duration of treatment.”

DICE listed that “it is developing orally-available, small molecule antagonists of the pro-inflammatory signaling molecule IL-17, an immune cell-derived cytokine that is produced in response to infection by certain microorganisms.”

The company stated in the report that there is no cure for psoriasis, which “manifests as erythematous plaques with thick scaling that can occur anywhere on the body.” The disease causes symptoms that typically include itchiness, pain, and bleeding from scratching, which often results in scarring and disfiguration. The firm stated that according to the National Psoriasis Association, psoriasis affects about 125 million people globally.

DICE Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharma company based in South San Francisco, Calif., that focuses on developing and advancing new medicines for treating chronic autoimmune and inflammatory diseases.

The firm uses its proprietary DELSCAPE platform to build a pipeline of novel oral therapeutics to address well-validated targets in immunology that match or exceed the potency of their systemic biologic counterparts. The DELSCAPE platform can identify and discover selective oral small molecules that demonstrate potential for modulating protein-protein interactions (PPIs) that are equal to or better than systemic biologics.

DICE Therapeutics started off yesterday with a market cap of around $941.9 million, with approximately 38.21 million shares outstanding and a short interest of about 12.9%. DICE shares opened 79% higher yesterday at $44.18 (+$14.265, +57.87%) over last Friday’s $24.65 closing price and reached a new 52-week high price yesterday morning of $45.99. The stock traded between $36.56 and $45.99 per share and closed for trading at $40.00 (+$15.35, +62.27%).

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