InvestMacro

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.16%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.16%, and the Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.57% higher. The US equities saw a moderate decline on Wednesday after the S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high the previous day, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains. Despite robust macro data, with US Q3 GDP growing at 4.3% YoY, its fastest pace in two years, driven by consumption, exports, and government spending, markets continue to price in Fed rate cuts for next year. Political pressure on the Fed intensified as National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett stated the regulator is moving too slowly on easing, noting that the AI boom supports growth while simultaneously curbing inflation. The tech sector dominated again: Nvidia (+3%), Broadcom (+2.3%), and Amazon (+1.6%) extended their rallies, while Tesla corrected (-0.7%) after briefly hitting a new record. Trading activity is subdued due to the holiday schedule; US financial markets close early on Wednesday and will remain closed on Thursday and Friday for Christmas.

European equity markets mostly rose yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 0.23%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) dropped 0.21%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.14%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.24%. European stock markets opened without significant changes as the Christmas holidays began. Many platforms are operating on shortened schedules, and liquidity is noticeably decreasing. Investors are scaling back activity, and trading dynamics are expected to be driven by specific corporate news rather than macroeconomic factors. Most key regional exchanges will remain closed until Friday.
WTI prices rose to $58.6 per barrel on Wednesday, marking a sixth consecutive session of gains and reaching a two-week high fueled by geopolitical tensions. Prices were supported by US actions to intercept Venezuelan oil tankers and new strikes on energy infrastructure in the Black Sea region amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, pressure remains from API data showing a 2.4 million barrel increase in crude inventories alongside builds in gasoline and distillates. Overall, oil remains influenced by expectations of a supply surplus next year, trending toward an annual decline of over 18%.

Silver (XAG) prices surpassed $72 per ounce on Wednesday, rising for a fourth straight session and hitting a new all-time high. The market is buoyed by expectations of US monetary easing and increased demand for safe-haven assets. Geopolitical tension added fuel to the rally after President Donald Trump ordered the blocking of Venezuelan oil tankers last week. Silver has gained approximately 149% year-to-date, supported by a structural supply deficit and its recent inclusion in the US critical minerals list.

Platinum (XPT) prices broke above $2,300 per ounce, marking a new historical peak amid supply shortages and high investment demand. This marks a ten-session winning streak, the longest since 2017. Year-to-date, the metal has soared over 150%, its best performance since the late 1980s. Key drivers include mining disruptions in South Africa, a third consecutive year of market deficit, anticipation of US Section 232 trade restrictions, and strong demand in China following the launch of platinum futures in Guangzhou.

Asian markets were predominantly higher yesterday. The Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.02%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.69%, the Hang Seng (HK50) edged down 0.11%, and the ASX 200 (AU200) posted a strong gain of 1.10%.

The Hong Kong market saw moderate gains on Wednesday morning, supported by expectations of Chinese stimulus measures, including urban renewal plans and property market stabilization in the new 2026–2030 five-year plan. Gains were capped by local factors such as a narrowing current account surplus and inflation holding at 1.2%. Financials and developers outperformed, while consumer stocks traded cautiously ahead of the shortened session.

The “kiwi” strengthened to around $0.585, marking its third consecutive day of gains and reaching its highest level since late September. The rally is driven by expectations of a potential RBNZ rate hike in 2026, Q3 economic recovery data, and a weakening US dollar. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman signaled that rates will likely remain on hold for some time. Overall, the NZD is on track for an annual gain of over 4% in 2025.

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.38% (for the week -0.95%), while the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.88% (for the week -0.37%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed 1.31% higher (for the week -0.03%). The US stock markets ended Friday with solid gains amid a triple-witching derivatives expiration. AI-related stocks showed signs of recovery, with Oracle shares jumping over 7% following reports that TikTok agreed to sell its US business to a new joint venture involving Oracle and Silver Lake. Micron Technology gained 7%, building on a 10% gain from the previous day, while Nvidia rose more than 3% amid reports that the Trump administration is considering allowing the company to sell advanced AI chips to China. Meanwhile, Nike shares plummeted 11% following a report of declining revenue in China and the negative impact of higher tariffs on the company’s gross margins.

European equity markets mostly rose. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 0.37% (weekly -0.04)%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) finished up 0.01% (weekly +0.80%), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.22% (weekly +1.40%), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.61% higher (weekly +2.57%). The ECB’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged starting from June 2025 confirms the bank’s current neutral stance, meaning the central bank sees no need to ease or tighten monetary policy without a significant shift in inflation or economic growth. ECB staff expectations point to moderate growth and inflation in the medium term.

Precious metal prices climbed, with silver showing particularly strong momentum. Gold continues to receive structural support from central banks. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) increased its gold reserves by 30,000 ounces in November to a total of 74.1 million troy ounces, marking the thirteenth consecutive month of accumulation. Additionally, the World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, a 28% increase compared to the second quarter.

Silver is further supported by concerns over a physical metal deficit in China. As of November 21, silver inventories in warehouses linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to 519,000 kg, the lowest level in the last 10 years. Although the market faced pressure from profit-taking and ETF outflows after reaching record highs in mid-October, demand from funds has begun to recover, with long positions in silver ETFs reaching a nearly 3.5-year high on Tuesday.

Asian markets traded with mixed results last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.38%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.40%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 0.35%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive five-day result of 1.18%.

As expected, the People’s Bank of China maintained its key lending rates at historic lows, leaving the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%. This decision, representing the seventh consecutive period of no change, confirms the regulator’s stance that there is no urgent need for additional stimulus to reach annual GDP growth targets, despite November statistics showing a slowdown in retail sales and industrial production growth.

The New Zealand dollar is showing a steady recovery, rising toward 0.577 USD and nearly fully reversing its drop to two-week lows amid a revision of market expectations regarding Reserve Bank policy. The currency was supported by third-quarter GDP data confirming the national economy’s exit from a long period of stagnation, which significantly reduced the likelihood of monetary easing. Since the existing economic downturn prevents inflation from rising in the near term, market expectations for rate hikes have become more modest, with the probability of such a move by July falling from 50% to 40%.

At the close of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.79%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 1.38%. The US stock markets grew steadily on Thursday amid unexpectedly soft US inflation data. Annual inflation in November slowed to 2.7%, below market expectations, while the core figure fell to 2.6% – the lowest level since spring 2021 – fueling expectations of further Fed rate cuts next year. The consumer and technology sectors were the main drivers of growth, with Micron Technology shares soaring approximately 10% following strong quarterly earnings and a positive outlook.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) strengthened to around 18 per US dollar, its highest level since July 2024, after the Bank of Mexico, as expected, lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 7%. This move, part of an ongoing monetary easing cycle that began about a year ago, reflects the regulator’s confidence that inflation will gradually return to the 3% target, despite core inflation remaining above 4% and weak domestic economic dynamics.

European stock markets grew confidently yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.00%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.80%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.15%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.65% on Thursday. The ECB, as expected, left interest rates unchanged and reaffirmed its commitment to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, as updated growth and inflation forecasts for 2026 provided no reason to revise the current policy course. At the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that inflation is in a “narrow range,” and core inflation has not changed significantly, remaining near the 2% target. In the region, the Norwegian and Swedish central banks also kept rates unchanged, while the Bank of England, as expected, cut them by 25 basis points.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) fell approximately 3% to $3.9 per MMBtu, nearing a seven-week low. Price pressure is stemming from record-high production volumes and comfortable inventory levels: December production in the Lower 48 states is estimated at 109.7 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day, comparable to November’s record levels. According to EIA data, 167 bcf of gas was withdrawn from storage for the week, slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that inventories still exceed the five-year average by about 0.9%.

Palladium prices (XPD) rose to $1,720 per ounce, reaching their highest level since January 2023, amid expectations of rising demand and shrinking supply. The market was supported by regulatory changes in Europe: the European Commission proposed softening the ban on internal combustion engines to 2035, lowering the emission-reduction target from 100% to 90%, and allowing the sale of some non-electric vehicles after 2035. This decision potentially supports palladium demand, as gasoline and hybrid vehicles still require catalytic converters.

Asian markets mostly rose on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.03%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.12%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.04%.

At the close of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.47%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.16%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 1.81%. The US stock markets finished significantly down on Wednesday, extending their losing streak to a fourth consecutive session. The main pressure came from the technology sector amid persistent concerns over high valuations and massive investments in AI-related projects. Oracle shares tumbled 5.4% following reports that its key data center partner, Blue Owl, declined to support a $10 billion data center construction project. Nvidia shares fell by 3.8%, Broadcom by 4.5%, and AMD by 5.3%. Against this backdrop, the energy sector outperformed the market, receiving support from rising oil prices following President Trump’s order for a “full and comprehensive” blockade of oil tankers associated with Venezuela.

European stock markets traded without a uniform dynamic yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.48%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.25%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.92%. The European Central Bank, the Swedish Riksbank, and the Norges Bank are expected to keep interest rates unchanged and will likely maintain current policy levels through 2026. Even with the Bank of England’s expected rate cut on Thursday, markets are still pricing in only one additional cut next year, despite softer inflation data.

WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 2% on Wednesday, exceeding $56 per barrel, rebounding from a nearly five-year low reached in the previous session. The market was supported by US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a “full and comprehensive” blockade on sanctioned oil tankers linked to Venezuela, following the recent detention of blacklisted vessels and an increased US military presence in the region. An additional growth factor was reports of a new round of US sanctions being prepared against Russia’s energy sector to increase pressure on Moscow in the context of negotiations over Ukraine.

Platinum (XPT) rose above $1,930 per ounce, reaching its highest level since 2008, amid growing economic and political uncertainty in the US, which bolstered demand for alternative assets for diversification. Growth was also driven by supply risks, as production in South Africa, the world’s largest platinum producer, came in weaker than expected. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) prognoses a market deficit of 69,000 ounces in 2025, the third consecutive year of deficit, before a move toward a balanced market with a small surplus is expected in 2026.

On Wednesday, silver appreciated by more than 4%, exceeding $66 per ounce and setting a new all-time high. The market received an extra boost following statements by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who allowed for the possibility of a 1% point rate cut in the US, citing nearly zero job growth and the need for moderate policy easing to support the labor market. In a broader perspective, silver’s price increase of nearly 130% since the start of the year is supported by structural factors: shrinking inventories and steady demand from industrial and retail investors, primarily in the solar energy, electric vehicle, and data center sectors.

Asian markets were mostly up on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.40%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 0.92%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.16%.

The Bank of Indonesia (BI), at its December 2025 monetary policy meeting, kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75% for the third consecutive time. This decision aligns with expectations and is aimed at supporting the Rupiah despite signs of slowing economic growth. The move follows a cumulative reduction of 150 basis points since September of last year, bringing the rate to its lowest level since October 2022. This stance reflects the central bank’s view that inflation in 2025–2026 will remain within the target range of 2.5% ± 1% due to a stable Rupiah and ongoing measures to sustain economic growth.