Archive for Financial News – Page 201

08 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (7,992 contracts) with Lean Hogs (4,006 contracts), Live Cattle (2,354 contracts), Wheat (1,713 contracts) and Cocoa (1,032 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-67,035 contracts) with Sugar (-20,806 contracts), Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybeans (-10,876 contracts), Cotton (-8,336 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-3,275 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-03-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,816,04337141,4291-170,1489928,71937
Gold448,06312163,09749-184,7175321,62034
Silver114,421017,99044-29,5695811,57931
Copper204,399461,88832-4,003682,11532
Palladium14,781100-7,89008,358100-46814
Platinum69,383708,06734-13,570655,50342
Natural Gas1,241,41957-98,7753368,3136730,46252
Brent127,0191-39,8733438,114701,75933
Heating Oil305,6813827,69978-41,8104014,11147
Soybeans610,352890,97325-71,92472-19,04955
Corn1,246,983846,4032852476-46,92746
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Sugar863,84340199,36861-229,7133930,34542
Wheat297,9337-45,4643451,05370-5,58954

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (94 percent) and Live Cattle (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week and are in Bullish-Extreme levels. Sugar (61 percent), Soybean Meal (55 percent) and Soybean Oil (42 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (7 percent) and Lean Hogs (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (28.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (37.8 percent)
Sugar (61.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (68.7 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (24.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (29.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (41.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (37.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (54.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (56.7 percent)
Live Cattle (92.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (90.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (19.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (16.1 percent)
Cotton (7.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.7 percent)
Cocoa (94.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (93.3 percent)
Wheat (34.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (33.3 percent)

 

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (40 percent) and Wheat (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (24 percent), Lean Hogs (17 percent) and Corn (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-23 percent), Soybean Meal (-8 percent) and Cotton (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (15.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.2 percent)
Sugar (-26.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-17.9 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (24.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (39.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-7.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-7.3 percent)
Live Cattle (4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (17.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (10.0 percent)
Cotton (-2.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.1 percent)
Cocoa (7.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.9 percent)
Wheat (29.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -67,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.749.09.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.048.913.6
– Net Position:46,403524-46,927
– Gross Longs:270,772610,770122,354
– Gross Shorts:224,369610,246169,281
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.176.246.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.6-17.49.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 199,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 220,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.543.38.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.469.95.1
– Net Position:199,368-229,71330,345
– Gross Longs:280,634374,26274,497
– Gross Shorts:81,266603,97544,152
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.439.541.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.428.5-25.2

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.447.03.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.751.43.9
– Net Position:8,495-8,052-443
– Gross Longs:42,19084,6066,662
– Gross Shorts:33,69592,6587,105
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.167.97.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.124.0-19.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 90,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,849 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.950.27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.062.010.2
– Net Position:90,973-71,924-19,049
– Gross Longs:170,206306,59843,239
– Gross Shorts:79,233378,52262,288
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.972.055.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.3-24.117.8

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,992 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.656.96.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.266.85.1
– Net Position:40,809-48,0287,219
– Gross Longs:85,067274,38532,017
– Gross Shorts:44,258322,41324,798
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.857.740.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:39.8-39.830.8

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 95,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.637.99.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.660.66.3
– Net Position:95,998-109,01213,014
– Gross Longs:118,320182,43143,129
– Gross Shorts:22,322291,44330,115
– Long to Short Ratio:5.3 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.948.914.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.86.114.0

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 105,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,354 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.429.08.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.955.611.9
– Net Position:105,443-92,019-13,424
– Gross Longs:153,517100,08927,594
– Gross Shorts:48,074192,10841,018
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.710.314.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.1-2.6-9.3

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.239.49.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.532.010.4
– Net Position:-12,57414,847-2,273
– Gross Longs:58,15178,65818,525
– Gross Shorts:70,72563,81120,798
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.383.673.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.5-13.9-25.6

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.950.96.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.949.57.0
– Net Position:-1,6782,320-642
– Gross Longs:53,59788,18411,530
– Gross Shorts:55,27585,86412,172
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.591.912.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.42.8-5.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 72,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,552 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.826.14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.848.03.2
– Net Position:72,584-75,5943,010
– Gross Longs:151,31990,38114,031
– Gross Shorts:78,735165,97511,021
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.5 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.47.026.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.6-5.1-23.7

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,177 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.041.49.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.324.311.1
– Net Position:-45,46451,053-5,589
– Gross Longs:83,554123,40027,557
– Gross Shorts:129,01872,34733,146
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.569.753.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.0-23.6-38.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
07 Jul

Gold Struggles to Gain Momentum: Challenges Persist in Precious Metals Sector

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The precious metals sector continues to face challenges, as gold has experienced a meager 5.1% increase from January to June 2023. This growth pales in comparison to the indicators seen in the US stock markets. Currently, the price of one troy ounce of gold stands at $1917 as we enter the second half of the year.

One of the key factors weighing on XAUUSD is the upward trend in interest rates, particularly in the US. This trend leads to higher yields in US government bonds and a stronger USD exchange rate. Historically, gold prices have exhibited an inverse correlation with these indicators.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD:

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the price has once again rebounded from the moving averages, indicating the development of a bearish trend since May 22, 2023. This price behavior reinforces the strength of the current trend and the ongoing pressure from sellers. The closest support area lies at the level of 1895, and a breakout below this level would pave the way for a decline towards 1860. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD, as its signal line has moved out of the histogram area, signaling a decline and the continuation of the bearish trend. It is worth noting the formation of a bullish divergence signal on the MACD indicator on June 30, 2023, when the quotes reached 1935, and the signal was successfully executed.

On the H1 XAU/USD chart, the quotes have broken out of the boundaries of the bullish correction channel. The price is currently below the 200-day moving average, indicating increasing pressure from sellers and a lack of upward movement in the market. There is still potential for a minor bullish correction, with a possible test of the 1915 level before a decline towards 1895 is expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD, as histogram bars have dropped below the July 5, 2023 minimum, nullifying the attempt to form a bullish divergence. A favorable scenario for sellers would be a breakout of the resistance area with the price consolidating above the 1920 level.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
07 Jul

Murrey Math Lines 07.07.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

Brent

Brent quotes have broken the 200-day Moving Average on H4 and are now above it, indicating a probable development of an uptrend. The RSI has rebounded from the support line. In this situation, further growth to the resistance level of 6/8 (78.12) is to be expected. The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of 4/8 (75.00). In this case, the quotes could drop to the support of 3/8 (73.44).

Brent_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a rise to 6/8 (78.12) on H4.

Brent_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

S&P 500 quotes remain in the overbought area on H4. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, a test of 8/8 (4375.0) is expected, followed by a breakout and a drop to the support at 7/8 (4296.9). The scenario can be cancelled by a rise above the resistance level of +1/8 (4453.1). In this case, the quotes could continue growing and reach +2/8 (4531.2).

S&P500_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the lower line of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a price decline.

S&P500_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Energy Financial News
07 Jul

The strong US labor market increased fears of further interest rate hikes by the Fed

By JustMarkets

Stronger-than-expected employment data from ADP reaffirmed fears of further interest rate hikes by Federal Reserve policymakers. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.07%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.79%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.82% on Thursday.

US employers announced 40,709 layoffs in June, down 49% from the 80,089 layoffs announced in May. Private sector jobs rose to 497,000 in June, much higher than the gain of 267,000 in May and much better than the estimated 220,000. At this point, the labor market is showing no signs of easing, giving the US Fed room to tighten further. Today in the US, the Nonfarm report will be released. Economists forecast that the US economy will add 200,000 jobs in June. The unemployment rate is expected to be 3.6% (now 3.7%), and average hourly earnings will be 0.3%.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said yesterday that further interest rate hikes would likely be needed to stimulate meaningful disinflation and return the rate of price growth to the Central Bank’s target level. She added that forecasts from Fed officials showed two more interest rate hikes this year.

Stock markets in Europe were down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 2.57%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 3.13%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was down by 2.21%, Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 2.17%.

Head of the German National Bank Nagel said yesterday that, at present, the ECB does not see a threat of excessive policy tightening but does not know yet where interest rates will peak. Nagel also added that rates will remain restrained for an extended period.

Traders are betting on a Bank of England interest rate hike to 6.5% by March 2023. Raising the cost of borrowing to that level would put mortgages further in the Bank of England’s pain zone, making credit less available to businesses and dealing a sharp blow to the economy. It will also exacerbate the difficulties facing the government of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in the run-up to next year’s elections.

Oil continues to fall in price amid fears of a rate hike. But amid signs of tightening supply and improving demand, oil still has a good chance of going higher. Data on Thursday showed US inventories declined more than expected, with a larger-than-expected drop in gasoline inventories pointing to improved demand for fuel during summer.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.86%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down by 0.82%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 2.44% for the day, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed negative by 1.25%.

In Japan, the wage hikes triggered by this spring’s labor negotiations have begun to take effect. Base wages rose by 1.8% in May compared to last year’s period, the most significant increase since February 1995. Wage growth is one of the key trends under scrutiny by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as the Central Bank considers whether and when it should roll back its super-soft monetary stimulus. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly stressed the need for an accommodative policy until wages rise enough to support sustained price growth of around 2%.

New Zealand’s Central Bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.50% next Wednesday and leave that level for the rest of the year, marking the end of its 20-month cycle of increases that have already driven the economy into recession. The country’s biggest banks – ANZ, ASB, Bank of New Zealand, Kiwibank, and Westpac – are not forecasting any rate changes next week.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,411.59 −35.23 (−0.79%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,922.26 −366.38 (−1.07%)

DAX (DE40) 15,528.54 −409.04 (−2.57%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,280.50 −161.60 (−2.17%)

USD Index 103.36 +0.32 (−0.04%)

Important events for today:
  • – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
07 Jul

Week Ahead: SPX500_m set for rollercoaster ride

By ForexTime

Even as markets turn cautious ahead of the highly anticipated US jobs report later today (Friday, July 7), investors are bracing for more action in the week ahead thanks to another round of risk events.

It’s all about the incoming US inflation data, speeches from numerous Fed officials as well as earnings announcements by US banks which could inject fresh volatility into the S&P 500 over the coming week.

Monday, July 10 

  • CNH: China CPI, PPI
  • GBP: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speech
  • USD: Fed speak – San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Tuesday, July 11

  • AUD: Australia consumer confidence
  • EUR: Germany CPI & ZEW survey expectations
  • GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment report
  • USD: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speech

Wednesday, July 12 

  • CAD: Canada rate decision
  • NZD: New Zealand rate decision
  • JPY: Japan PPI
  • USD: US June CPI report, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Thursday, July 13 

  • CNH: China trade
  • EUR: Eurozone industrial production
  • GBP: UK industrial production
  • USD: US initial jobless claims, PPI

Friday, July 14

  • JPY: Japan industrial production
  • USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment
  • SPX500_m: Bank earnings – Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and Citigroup

The June US Consumer price index (CPI) report published on Wednesday, July 12 will be one week after hawkish Fed minutes reinforced expectations around US rates staying higher for longer.

Given how the Fed remains data dependent, the strong ADP jobs report, pending NFP release this afternoon, and incoming US inflation data are likely to further influence Fed hike expectations.

Markets are forecasting: 

  • CPI year-on-year (June 2023 vs. June 2022) to cool 3.1% from 4.0% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI year-on-year to cool 5.0% from 5.3% seen in May.
  • CPI month-on-month (June 2023 vs May 2023) to rise 0.3% from 0.1% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI month-on-month to cool 0.3% from 0.4% seen in May.

Over the past few months, there has been evidence of inflationary pressures cooling in the world’s largest economy, but core inflation has remained sticky. Should June’s CPI report slow further, this could fuel hopes around the Fed pausing rate hikes beyond July’s policy meeting.

How might the US CPI data influence the SPX500_m?

US equity bulls have warmly welcomed signs of cooling inflationary pressures as this supports the argument over the Fed pausing and eventually cutting interest rates down the road. Given how the S&P 500 Index has a handful of tech stocks that remain sensitive to Fed hike expectations, the CPI data could trigger volatility. In a nutshell, tech stocks dislike higher interest rates because their value is based on earnings projected in the future.

  • The SPX500_m might find itself under renewed selling pressure if the inflation numbers exceed market expectations.
  • Should the inflation numbers print below market forecasts, this could push the SPX500_m higher as expectations swell over the Fed nearing the end of its hiking cycle.

Let’s talk about US earnings season.

It’s that time of the year again!

Second quarter earnings season kicks off on Friday 14th July led by banking giants JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. The bank earnings will be closely scrutinized for fresh insight into the US economy. It is worth keeping in mind that back in June, these major banks all passed the Fed’s stress test – lifting optimism ahead of earnings. Higher interest rates are expected to support bank earnings in the second quarter of 2023 as the Fed waged war against inflation.

Ultimately, a positive set of bank earnings may boost appetite for risk – injecting equity bulls with renewed confidence. 

How might bank earnings impact the SPX500_m?

Given how financial stocks accounts for roughly 12.5% of the S&P 500, the market reaction to the earnings of these big banks on Friday could influence the index.

  • The SPX500_m could push higher if the bank earnings exceed market expectations.
  • If the earnings disappoint, the SPX500_m may trade lower.

Technical Outlook: Bulls vs Bears 

The SPX500_m could be thrown on a roller-coaster ride next week if bulls and bears wrestle for control on the daily charts. 

Even though prices are respecting a bullish channel on the D1 timeframe, bears are clearly in the vicinity and could ramp up their pressure if the index sinks back below 4332. Alternatively, bulls need to push prices beyond the 4463 resistance level to regain control of the steering wheel.

  • A solid breakout above 4463 could encourage an incline towards 4500 and 4580, respectively.
  • Should prices break down below 4332, this could encourage a decline to 4300, 4260, and 4200, respectively.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
06 Jul

Insights into This “Ultimate Harbinger” of the Bear Market

Enthusiasm for U.S. IPOs seems to be dramatically decreasing

By Elliott Wave International

Back in early 2021, many investors were chomping at the bits to invest in entities about which they knew next to nothing.

These entities are known as Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), which may be described as shell companies which raise money through an initial public offering to acquire another company. Investors’ enthusiasm towards them has waned, but they are still around.

The amazing thing is that people who invest in SPACs don’t know the identity of the company to be acquired. Yet, they eagerly invest anyway.

It’s a reminder of Charles Mackay’s book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, in which he described the extreme bullish sentiment way back in 1720:

“[A]n undertaking of great advantage came to market, but nobody is to know what it is.”

In March 2021, when several athlete- and celebrity-sponsored SPACs hit the market, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets, called it:

The ultimate harbinger of the next bear market.

Yes, the major stock indexes held up for another nine months or so — yet the IPO market had already started to show weakness.

Today, that weakness has morphed into an outright bear market. The June 2023 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast provides a review with this chart and commentary:

The chart shows the Renaissance IPO Index, which records the aftermarket performance of U.S. IPOs. The index peaked on February 16, 2021 and declined 69%. The total number of IPOs peaked a month later at 135, also an all-time high. For 2022 and the first four months of 2023, the average monthly total is only 15 U.S. IPOs.

As Barron’s stated back in March:

The Tech IPO Well Has Run Dry. It’s Likely to Stay That Way.

The diminishing number of IPOs is by no means the only warning sign for stock investors.

Elliott Wave International’s Financial Forecast Service discusses an array of indicators which may be of interest to you, as well as the message of the Elliott wave model.

An important point about the Elliott wave model is that it helps investors to identify turning points in the trends of financial markets.

Indeed, here’s a quote from Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior:

When after a while the apparent jumble gels into a clear picture, the probability that a turning point is at hand can suddenly and excitingly rise to nearly 100%. It is a thrilling experience to pinpoint a turn, and the Wave Principle is the only approach that can occasionally provide the opportunity to do so.

Here’s the good news: You can access the entire online version of the book for free once you become a member of Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community.

Club EWI is free to join without any obligations and members enjoy free access to Elliott wave resources on financial markets and investing, including exclusive articles and interviews with Elliott Wave International’s analysts.

Click on the link to get started right away: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Insights into This “Ultimate Harbinger” of the Bear Market. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News
06 Jul

The trade war between China and the US is worsening again. FOMC minutes point to further rate hikes

By JustMarkets

The US indices closed lower on Wednesday as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting showed appetite for policy tightening and interest rate hikes. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.38%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.20%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.12% on Wednesday.

Highlights of the June FOMC minutes:

  • Nearly all participants said that inflation risks are prevalent at the moment and remain key to the outlook for the direction of monetary policy;
  • All Fed officials agreed that continued restrictive monetary policy would be appropriate;
  • The Fed expects further rate hikes but at a slower pace;
  • Fed policymakers believe a shallow recession at the end of the year is likely;
  • Some representatives favored raising rates rather than pausing at the June meeting, noting a “very tight” labor market that threatens to raise wages and inflation.

According to the FedWatch Tool, nearly 90% of traders expect the Fed to resume raising rates in July.

Stock markets in Europe were down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) was 0.63% lower, French CAC 40 (FR 40) decreased by 0.80%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.06%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) was 1.03% lower.

In the Eurozone, consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months declined further, while inflation expectations for the three years ahead remained stable. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months have become less negative. Consumers expect lower growth in their home prices over the next 12 months.

Gold prices ended lower Wednesday as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed that some central bank officials pushed for an interest rate hike in June. Gold has an inverse correlation to the dollar index and to government bond yields, so a policy tightening is a negative for the precious metals.

The OPEC+ meeting proceeds without surprises. OPEC energy and oil ministers reviewed current oil market conditions and agreed to continue current production quotas for a stable and balanced oil market. Additional crude oil inventories will be released today.

Natural gas continues to be cheaper. The hot weather in Texas and other southern US states has eased slightly, prompting market participants to push gas prices down further to $2.5. Additional natural gas inventories will be released tomorrow.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.25%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 1.08%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.57% on the day, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) close negative by 0.35%.

Janet Yellen is set to visit China in an effort to ease tensions between the two economic powers. Treasury Department officials say they don’t expect any diplomatic breakthroughs from Yellen’s trip. But the secretary of state hopes to forge closer ties with China’s new economic leaders to avoid a deeper deterioration in relations between the world’s two largest economies. This week, China announced new restrictions on exports of key minerals used in the manufacture of semiconductors and solar panels. This was China’s response to US export restrictions on China. The Biden administration has restricted the sale of advanced computer chips to China and is considering restricting China’s access to US cloud computing services.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,446.82 −8.77 (−0.20%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,288.64 −129.83 (−0.38%)

DAX (DE40) 15,937.58 −101.59 (−0.63%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,442.10 −77.62 (−1.03%)

USD Index 103.36 +0.32 (+0.31%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Unemployment Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
06 Jul

Do NQ100_m bears have a chance as NFP looms?

By ForexTime

  • NQ100_m shaky ahead of Friday’s US NFP
  • Momentum Oscillator reveals a negative divergence
  • Prices could hit 3 possible targets if 14699.6 higher bottom is breached
  • Bearish outlook invalidated if resistance at 15294.0 is broken

The NQ100_m index has been dominated by bulls since April, but bears may have a chance to take over the reigns as a lower top has formed at a strong weekly resistance level. Hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting could support Nasdaq bears further, especially after it reinforced expectations around US rates staying higher for longer.

On the technical front, the NQ100_m created a higher bottom on 26 June at 14699.6 and a higher top on 16 June at 15300.5. Interestingly, the Momentum Oscillator also reveals a negative divergence between points “a” and “b” when comparing the tops at 14673.9 and 15300.5. This may alert technical traders that a momentum change could be on the cards.

Further confirmation was the market breaking through the 15 Simple Moving Average and the Momentum Oscillator starting to drop closer to the 100 baseline in a downward wave pattern.

If bears manage to break through the support level formed by the last higher bottom at 14699.6, then three possible price targets might be realized from there. Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the higher bottom at 14699.6 and dragging it to the lower top at 15294.0, the following targets can be determined:

  • The first target can be estimated at 14332.3 (161.8%) if the price manages to break through a weekly support level at 14506.4.

  • The second price target can be expected at 13737.9 (261.8%) which is on a next weekly support level at 13757.8

  • The third and final target can be anticipated at 12776.1 (423.6%). 

If the resistance level at 15294.0 is broken, the current scenario is no longer valid. 

As long as bears keep pulling the market downwards they have a chance to cause an early stage of a new downtrend on the NQ100_m D1 time frame.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
05 Jul

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, LTC). Overview for 05.07.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC price rose to 30,831 USD by Wednesday.

The flagship cryptocurrency is currently fully implementing the previously outlined trend with consolidation above 31,150 USD and a further climb to 33,000 USD.

The bullish scenario is supported by a new application for licensing submitted by the BlackRock fund to the SEC. The fund attempts to launch a BTC-based ETF. The potential impact of this venture, if approved, cannot be underestimated. With a significant volume of assets under BlackRock’s management, a portion of these could potentially be invested in cryptocurrency.

The capitalisation of the cryptocurrency market remains steady at USD 1.210 trillion. The share of BTC rose to 49.6%, while the share of ETH fell to 19.3%.

Miners have sent 54,000 BTC to Binance

Over the past three weeks, miners have deposited about 54,000 BTC coins into the largest crypto exchange, thereby contributing to the growing volume of assets on the exchanges. At the same time, there haven’t been any significant changes in the open interest for BTCUSD.

LTC halving event is approaching

The next halving of LTC will take place on 3 August 2023. The market expects a significant price correction for the altcoin following the event, or at least this is what the history of similar price fluctuations suggests.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
05 Jul

China’s economic recovery is slowing. OPEC+ countries to agree on new oil production quotas today

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices did not trade yesterday due to a bank holiday.

According to the OECD, inflation in advanced economies has slowed to its lowest since December 2021. Inflation has slowed in almost all countries except the Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom. In the G7 countries, inflation is now at 4.6%, the lowest level since September 2021. The figures show that core inflation remains steady, even though monetary officials make some progress in controlling consumer prices. Policymakers in advanced economies are still in a tightening mode, with both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank signaling another increase in borrowing costs this month.

The June FOMC minutes will be released today. Investors will be looking for clues as to how far the US Fed can go in terms of raising rates. More than 85% of traders believe the US Fed will raise interest rates this month, and only 37% think the rate will be raised again in September.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down on Tuesday. German DAX (DE30) was 0.26% lower, French CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.23%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.63%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) was 0.10% lower yesterday.

The Bank of England is considering plans to force more international banks to create subsidiaries in the UK. Analysts believe the move would make it easier for the Bank of England to seize control of subsidiaries such as SVB in London in the event of a collapse.

After the latest inflation figures, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced his full support for the Bank of England but criticized Governor Andrew Bailey. In his January speech, the prime minister said that the promise to halve inflation was his personal responsibility, but if the UK Consumer Price Index remains stubbornly high for the rest of the year, many expect that the Bank of England may see a change in leadership.

Ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, key export giant Saudi Arabia announced Monday that production cuts of one million barrels a day would be extended for another month. Meanwhile, Russia said it would cut exports by 500,000 BPD in August. Normally news of production cuts by two such important players would provide additional support to oil prices. Nevertheless, the demand side still looks weak for the global oil market. This week’s key economic data from manufacturing sectors around the world was disappointing from China, Europe and the United States. As central banks are raising interest rates almost across the board to combat high inflation, lower economic activity is now effectively the goal of monetary policy.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.97%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.57% on the day, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive by 0.45% on Tuesday.

China’s abrupt announcement on Monday that it will impose export controls on certain types of gallium and germanium, effective August 1, escalated a trade war with the US and could potentially lead to new disruptions in global supply chains. Analysts viewed the move, which the Chinese Commerce Ministry said was aimed at protecting national security, as a response to Washington’s escalating efforts to curb China’s technological advances. China is the world’s largest producer of rare earth elements, a group of metals used in electric vehicles and military technology.

A private survey showed Wednesday that China’s services sector grew less than expected in June, raising fears of a slowdown in the country’s economic recovery. The figure follows a weak reading on manufacturing activity and points to a slowdown in growth in the second quarter. Nevertheless, analysts believe China’s weak data could attract additional stimulus measures from Beijing after liquidity injections and interest rate cuts earlier this year.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,455.59 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,418.47 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 16,039.17 −41.87 (−0.26%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,519.72 −7.54 (−0.10%)

USD Index 103.09 0 (0%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – OPEC Meetings at 13:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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