Archive for Financial News – Page 196

Green Tech Co. Signs Letter of Intent to Sell First Solar Tower

Source: Streetwise Reports  (7/25/23)

For this green tech company looking to save space on solar power installations, the agreement is proof that its technology is commercially legitimate.

Green tech company Three Sixty Solar (VSOL:NEO;VSOLF:OTC) announced it had signed a non-binding letter of intent for the sale and installation of its first solar tower.

The agreement with Cattail Crossing Golf and Winter Club in Sturgeon County, Alberta, indicates the club’s intent to install a Three Sixty Solar tower to generate power for the golf course and the clubhouse.

Three Sixty’s solar towers build up instead of out to save space, rising vertically instead of covering acres of ground horizontally, leaving up to 80% to 90% more room for other economic or preservation purposes.

“They have substantial power needs and don’t want to give up their land because, obviously, that takes up space they need for the course,” Three Sixty Solar Chief Executive Officer Brian Roth told Streetwise Reports.

For Three Sixty, it’s an important step and a proof of concept for the technology, he said.

Three Sixty’s technology is a “big deal” because most solar farms are in rural areas, leading to energy leakage getting the electricity across distances and to market, Technical Analyst Clive Maund wrote.

“The biggest thing is just as we work through the commercialization process, it’s proof that it’s commercially legitimate and that people are willing to pay and move forward on projects that are not just demonstrations or R&D funded,” Roth said.

Three Sixty’s technology is a “big deal” because most solar farms are in rural areas, leading to energy leakage getting the electricity across distances and to market, Technical Analyst Clive Maund wrote.

In addition, the vast areas of land consumed by these solar arrays generally mean that it can’t be used for anything else, so there is a serious opportunity cost loss as well, he said.

The company’s vertical tower arrays can be built virtually anywhere, including in cities, and they take up little space.

“Three Sixty Solar’s towers will eventually render all these vast acreages of solar panels all over the place obsolete,” Maund wrote. “This being so, its stock has the potential to appreciate by many thousands of percent.”

‘Ideal Solution’ Does Not Sacrifice Land

According to the letter of intent, the parties plan to begin a feasibility study on the site as quickly as possible with the goal of reaching a binding purchase order by Aug. 31.

According to a Stratistics MRC report, the global market for solar energy accounted for US$76 billion in 2020 and is forecasted to reach US$296 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5%.

Cattail Crossing owner Mark Beck said the club had been looking for ways to add renewable energy to the operation, but he couldn’t find anything suitable for the land.

“The solar towers offered by Three Sixty are such a unique approach that we can easily make it fit and generate power for our irrigation systems, cart charging, and more,” Beck said. “We are looking forward to working with Three Sixty and becoming an advocate for the solar tower solution to our friends in the golf community.”

Three Sixty’s solar technology is an “ideal solution” for the club “to provide power for operations without sacrificing the land they need for the course and clubhouse,” Roth said.

The Catalyst: Targeting Net Zero Emissions

Driving the growth is an increase in pollution, a surge in rooftop applications, and increased adoption in agriculture, the report said.

Solar power uses photovoltaic cells and other technologies to capture the sun’s radiant energy, which is efficient and renewable and mitigates environmental risks coming from options creating greenhouse gas emissions.

According to the Solar Energy Industries Association, the cost to install the equipment has dropped by 50% over the last decade, leading to the deployment of thousands of new systems in new markets.

Governments are giving big incentives, as well. Canada is targeting net zero emissions by 2050 and has launched a CA$964 million program, Three Sixty Solar said. The United States Inflation Reduction Act commits US$370 billion to fund green energy, and the European Union has an energy target of at least 32% from solar by 2030. The European Green New Deal envisions a climate-neutral continent by 2050.

Countries have been “throwing record amounts of money at these types of technologies and trying to green our electricity grid,” Roth said. “There’s just a huge opportunity to clean up our electricity production while . . .  being very cost competitive with the older technologies.”

According to a Stratistics MRC report, the global market for solar energy accounted for US$76 billion in 2020 and is forecasted to reach US$296 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5%.

Demonstration Tower Declared a Success

There are three models of towers, which soar from 40 feet to 120 feet tall and produce as much as 250 kilowatts per tower, the company said. They are manufactured in Canada and the U.S., approved by a U.S.-licensed engineer, and support many solar panel brands.

A demonstration tower in Kelowna, British Columbia that was in operation for 16 months was declared a success after it survived a major windstorm with gusts as high as 84 mph, intense rain and hail, and a snowstorm with no structural or panel damage.

The vertical positioning of the panels on the tower also prevented snow from covering the panels, which often inhibits power production in flatter, ground-mounted installations, the company said.

The Cattail Crossing tower will be proof that the solar towers are commercially viable, Roth said.

“And it will be an opportunity for us to go through the delivery process and continue to refine that,” he said.

The tower’s design enables it to be built with different materials to survive threats in different environments, such as surviving earthquakes in California or surviving hurricanes in Florida.

Power production and add-ons like telecommunications arrays and EV charging stations are opportunities to create more recurring revenue from the towers, Roth said.

Three Sixty Solar has applied for patents with the World Patent Office and others in North America, the European Union, and Africa.

Ownership and Share Structure

According to the company, about 21% of Three Sixty Solar is held by management and insiders. The CEO Roth owns 3.43%, founder and Director Peter Sherba owns about 30%, and Director Scott McLeod owns about 0.21%, Reuters said.

About 28% is held by strategic investors, and the rest, about 51%, is retail.

Three Sixty Solar’s market cap is CA$20.23 million, with about 43.5 million shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$1.29 and CA$0.51.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Three Sixty Solar Ltd. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Three Sixty Solar Ltd.
  3. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4. The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 27.07.2023 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the resistance level. Currently, the instrument could go by the reversal signal in a descending wave. The correction target might be 1965.50. Upon testing the support, the price might rebound and continue the uptrend. However, the quotes could rise to 1990.00 without a correction.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The growth target might be 0.6300. Upon breaking the resistance, the quotes might have a chance to continue the uptrend. However, a correction to 0.6190 might develop and an uptrend might follow the pullback.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the support level on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The growth target might be 1.3055. However, the price might correct to 1.2895 and continue the uptrend following the pullback.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Fed raises rates by 25 bps, keeping the bias toward further action. The ECB intends to raise rates until the fall

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.23%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.02%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.12% on Wednesday.

The US Central Bank raised rates by 25 bps to 5.50%, the highest in 22 years. But the market was fully ready for such a decision, so there were no surprises here. The main focus of investors was directed to the FOMC press conference.

The main theses of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech:

  • Core inflation remains high (current Core CPI 4.8%);
  • The FOMC is committed to returning inflation to the 2.0% target to achieve price stability (current CPI 3.0%);
  • Inflation is not projected to reach the 2.0% target until 2025;
  • Another rate hike at the next meeting is possible, but it will depend on incoming economic data;
  • A rate cut this year is not the baseline scenario;
  • The FOMC is no longer forecasting a recession in the US;
  • Asset reduction (quantitative tightening – QT) will continue.

According to the FedWatch Tool, there is only a 22% chance that the US Fed will raise interest rates in September. For investors, this is a green flag for further growth of stock indices.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.49%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 1.35%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.85%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative yesterday by 0.19%.

Another drop in Germany’s leading indicator, the IFO index, confirms that the economy has returned to a downtrend. According to economists, the German economy is stuck in the zone between stagnation and recession (so-called “slow recession”) and is in dire need of a new reform program. China’s weaker-than-expected opening, the looming recession in the US and Europe, and the continued tightening of monetary policy seem to be taking their toll on German company sentiment. Germany is likely to face a longer period of subdued growth – the current valuation component is as low as it was at the end of 2020, with both the current indicators and the expectations component down.

The ECB will hold a monetary policy meeting today. Analysts expect the ECB to raise rates by 0.25%. However, the focus will be on the Central Bank’s plans for September, and markets are divided on whether there will be another rate hike or whether the ECB will hit the pause button. ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to reiterate that future decisions will be based on incoming economic data. Last time the ECB said that inflation is projected to stay too high for too long, so given the strong labor market, there is room for the ECB to raise rates further.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday a 600,000 barrel drop in US crude oil inventories. Oil prices rose in Asian trading on Thursday, recovering most of the previous session’s losses. Analysts believe that there are concerns in the oil market about the reliability of oil supplies in sufficient volume. Oil prices are therefore expected to rise in the coming months, following tensions in global markets after supply cuts by the world’s largest producers.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.04%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.36% on the day, while Australia’s S&P/ASX  00 (AU200) was positive by 0.85% on Wednesday. But most Asian stocks returned to the upside on Thursday as interest in risk-oriented markets was boosted by the Federal Reserve downplaying the likelihood of a US recession this year.

While aggressive interest rate hikes in the US appear to be nearing an end, Japan’s central bank faces a tough decision tomorrow on whether to take another step towards phasing out its controversial yield control program. Although inflation has been holding above its 2% target for more than a year, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has vowed to keep monetary policy soft until he is confident the economy can withstand global headwinds and allow companies to continue raising wages next year. The BOJ is expected to keep the policy rate at minus 0.1% and maintain its yield curve control (YCC) targets at the two-day meeting that ends on Friday. However, the board may discuss making minor policy changes, such as widening the range of premiums around the 10-year yield target, if it feels the costs of YCC are starting to outweigh the benefits.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,566.75 −0.71  (−0.016%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,520.12 +82.05 (+0.23%)

DAX (DE40)  16,131.46 −80.13 (−0.49%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,676.89 −14.91 (−0.19%)

USD Index  101.01 −0.34 (−0.33%)

Important events for today:
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

AUD remains highly volatile. Overview for 26.07.2023

By RoboForex.com

The Australian dollar, paired with the US dollar, is once again facing pressure. The current AUDUSD quote is 0.6759.

The Aussie’s volatility is drawing attention. On one hand, a strong US dollar exerts pressure on the AUD. On the other hand, China is sending quite positive signals.

Today’s statistics revealed that inflation in Australia for the second quarter declined to 5.4% year-over-year. On a quarterly basis, the indicator rose by 0.8% following a 1.4% increase from January to March this year. The easing of inflationary pressure is a positive signal. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to acknowledge this at its next meeting and keep the interest rate unchanged. The Australian dollar is reacting precisely to this development.

China’s readiness to stimulate its economy is favourable for Australia. As Australia’s primary trading and economic partner, all positive news coming from China is also encouraging for the AUD.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Technology giants continue to bet on artificial intelligence. The IMF provided new economic forecasts

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.07%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.61% on Tuesday.

The US consumer confidence rose to a two-year high in July on the back of a continued robust labor market and lower inflation, improving the economy’s near-term outlook. The Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 117 in July from 110.1 in June. That’s the highest level in two years. But consumers still fear a recession next year after the Federal Reserve sharply raised interest rates.

Microsoft (MSFT), beating Wall Street forecasts for fiscal quarter revenue and profit Tuesday, laid out an aggressive spending plan to meet the demand for new artificial intelligence services. The company’s spending surged as it built new data centers to support artificial intelligence, while its capital expenditures will continue to rise. The company’s stock fell about 4% on the report. Alphabet (GOOG) for the second quarter exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. Alphabet’s results were driven by robust demand for cloud services and an uptick in advertising. The company’s shares jumped by 8% in after-hours trading. Snap (SNAP) yesterday reported weaker-than-analysts-expected third-quarter guidance as it has to compete with tech giants in advertising, sending shares down -18%. The Snapchat app attracts hundreds of millions of users thanks to its simple photo filters and a new chatbot with artificial intelligence. However, the company has struggled to consistently grow revenue and catch up with competitors.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly raised its global growth estimates for 2023, given robust economic activity in the first quarter, but warned that persistent challenges were worsening the medium-term outlook. The IMF now forecasts global real GDP growth at 3.0% in 2023, up 0.2% from its April forecast, but left its 2024 forecast unchanged, also at plus 3.0%.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.16%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.38%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.17%.

Goldman Sachs (GS) lowered its 2023 eurozone growth forecast following weaker economic activity data.

The Bank of England on Tuesday forecast the Bank’s net loss will be just over 150 billion pounds ($193 billion) over the next ten years as it winds down its quantitative easing (QE) program, up from the 100 billion pounds forecast in April. These losses will have to be financed by the government at a time when public finances are already under pressure from rising interest rates and inflation.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) lost 0.06%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 3.41%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 4.10% on the day, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.46% on Tuesday. Senior Chinese officials said yesterday they would take additional measures to support the economy, which in turn sparked a sharp rally in local stocks.

Australia’s inflation rate continues to decline. For the last month, the annual consumer price index decreased from 5.6% to 5.4% (forecast 5.4%). Analysts believe that this decline should be enough to keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from another rate hike in August. But according to economists, it will be much more difficult to reduce inflation further, and it is very likely that the RBA will make another rate hike in September.

The IMF forecasts growth in Japan’s economy but warns of inflationary pressures. Japan’s economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2023, faster than the 1.0% growth last year, as the lifting of pandemic restrictions stimulates consumption. IMF economists believe Japan’s ultra-soft monetary policy will remain accommodative in the near term, but the Bank of Japan should be ready to start raising interest rates given inflation risks.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,567.46 +12.82 (+0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,438.07 +26.83 (+0.076%)

DAX (DE40)  16,211.59 +20.64 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,691.80 +13.21 (+0.17%)

USD Index  101.29 -0.06 (-0.06%)

Important events for today:
  • – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
  • – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
  • – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The ECB will face tough choices at its next meeting. The People’s Bank of China conducted currency intervention to support the yuan

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) closed up by 0.52%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.40%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.19% on Monday. The Dow Jones Index (US30) extended its daily winning streak to its eleventh consecutive gain, helped by a rally in energy. Energy stocks were supported by a rise in oil prices to an April high amid bets that OPEC supply cuts will tighten market conditions.

The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday. A 0.25% rate hike is expected as early as tomorrow, which is already fully factored into the price. Morgan Stanley analysts believe Wednesday’s expected rate hike could likely be the final rate hike, predicting a peak federal funds rate of 5.375% this year.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.07%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.29%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.19% higher.

The fall in economic indicators across Europe poses a difficult task for the European Central Bank: to make another rate hike in September or to switch to full data dependence. For the ECB, there are now three main options:

  • The ECB continues to signal that if the core level of inflation is maintained, further tightening is likely. Such signaling is likely to trigger a hawkish market reaction with interest rate expectations rising.
  • The ECB maintains a fully data-dependent regime, with a willingness to hike but no clear bias towards tightening. In this scenario, the market reaction could be moderately dovish.
  • The Central Bank assumes that clear progress has been made toward the inflation target, and it is unclear whether further rate hikes are needed. In this scenario, market reaction is likely to be very dovish.

The middle scenario is the closest considered by analysts, which could put pressure on the euro against the dollar in the near term.

Gold’s rally appears to be weakening ahead of this week’s policy meetings between the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. Gold is highly sensitive to US government bond yields and the dollar index. Hawkish comments from the US Fed will give temporary support to the dollar, which will be negative for precious metals. But in the medium and long term, banks expect the dollar and government bond yields to fall, so gold still has good growth prospects in the higher time frames.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 1.23%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.54%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 2.13% on the day, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 0.10% on Monday.

Chinese state-owned banks unexpectedly conducted currency intervention to support the yuan against the dollar. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the yuan (CNY) discount rate at 7.1406. It is allowed to trade plus-minus 2% of this rate. This applies to CNY, which is traded on China’s exchanges. There is also an offshore yuan (CNH). Its trading range is unlimited, so significant fluctuations in the exchange rate compared to CNY tend to trigger a reaction from the PBoC.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,554.64 +18.30 (+0.40%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,411.24 +183.55 (+0.52%)

DAX (DE40)  16,190.95 +13.73 (+0.085%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,678.59 +14.86 (+0.19%)

USD Index  101.40 +0.33 (+0.32%)

Important events for today:
  • – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

China’s new economic measures will excite global investors

By George Prior 

China’s raft of new measures to bolster its economy strengthens the case for global investors’ continued attraction to the country, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The bullish analysis from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as China’s economic planning agency announced Monday a series of measures to encourage investment.

Beijing’s series of policies is ahead of a key Politburo meeting this week which will review China’s first half economic performance.

In the 17-point statement, the National Development and Reform Commission vowed to lure more private capital to become involved in the construction of important national projects and major industrial supply chain ventures.

The moves come after last Thursday’s announcement from the People’s Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to confirm that they have modified their cross-border financing rules to allow companies to borrow more from international investors.

Nigel Green says: “Will these measures work? Yes, because they strengthen the case for global investors’ recently renewed enthusiasm for China – which is robust, despite the economic red flags.

“Weaker international demand, which has triggered the drop in exports, comes at a time when the economy is under pressure from a weak property sector and a disappointingly slow Covid rebound after controls were dropped at the start of the year. In addition, youth unemployment is at its highest level on record.

“But despite these challenges, it remains an appealing destination for investors.”

One of the most compelling reasons why investors are attracted to China is its massive market potential.

“With a population of over 1.4 billion people and a growing middle class, China offers a vast consumer base for businesses to tap into. The rising incomes and increasing urbanization have fuelled demand for various products and services, providing ample opportunities for investors across sectors such as technology, healthcare, and consumer goods,” says the deVere CEO.

The People’s Republic also has a proven ability to navigate and adapt to economic challenges. “Despite recent headwinds, including trade tensions and the pandemic, China has shown remarkable resilience.”

The country’s emphasis on research and development, coupled with significant investments in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, 5G, and biotechnology, has propelled China to the forefront of technological advancements, affirms Nigel Green.

He notes: “Investors recognise this immense potential in these sectors and are eager to capitalise on the nation’s technological prowess, which offers unique opportunities for high returns on investment.”

Investors are also fully aware of China’s economic model which is gradually shifting from export-driven growth to one fuelled by domestic consumption. This transition presents investors with a new set of opportunities as the Chinese population becomes increasingly affluent and consumption-oriented.

Companies that cater to the evolving tastes and preferences of Chinese consumers stand to benefit immensely from this paradigm shift, prompting investors to focus on sectors such as e-commerce, entertainment, and luxury goods.

Nigel Green concludes: “Beijing’s proactive policies, such as stimulus measures and targeted reforms, have effectively supported economic growth and stabilized market conditions in the past and we expect the new measures will do the same. This track record instils confidence in global investors, as they believe that China can effectively address and overcome future obstacles.

“The new policies will further help investors see beyond the short-term and look for the long-term potential in China.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

The Crude Oil Market Relies on Demand

By RoboForex Analytical Department

As the new week in July kicks off, the commodities market is in high spirits. The price of Brent crude oil has surged to 81.00 USD per barrel. The oil sector is responding to rising global tensions, which may have adverse effects on the supply of energy resources. However, demand expectations are stable, and are driving prices upward.

There are growing concerns about the potential displacement of a portion of biofuels by oil and its derivatives, particularly amidst complications with the extension of the “grain deal.” This further supports the upward trend in commodity prices.

According to Baker Hughes data, drilling activity in the US has decreased. The number of oil rigs fell by 7 units to 530, and the number of gas rigs decreased by 2 units to 131.

Technical Analysis of the Brent oil price chart:

On the H4 chart, Brent is currently developing a third wave of growth. Having reached 81.40 USD, a consolidation range is expected to form just below this level. A breakout above this range would likely lead to the continuation of the upward wave, targeting 81.81 USD. Surpassing this level could open the potential for further growth towards 84.00 USD, with the possibility of continuing the upward trend to 85.00 USD. Technically, the MACD indicator confirms this scenario; with its signal line above the zero mark, it is showing a clear upward direction, indicating potential new highs.

On the H1 chart, Brent completed an upward wave to 81.04 USD, followed by a correction to 80.30 USD. After the correction, an upward wave is anticipated to begin targeting 81.80 USD. This target is local. Technically, the Stochastic oscillator also supports this outlook, with its signal line above the 50 mark, indicating a readiness to continue rising towards the 80 mark.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

In the US, there is a rotation of funds between sectors. Quarterly earnings for the second quarter are not yet in line with forecasts

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) closed at the opening level (+2.11% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.03% (+0.61% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.20% on Friday (-0.42% for the week). The Nasdaq’s decline in recent days is attributed to the expiration of one-month options and the pending rebalancing of the multi-trillion dollar Nasdaq 100. In recent days, indices have begun to trade multi-directionally, indicating a rotation of funds between sectors. There is now a flow of funds from the technology sector into the banking and healthcare sectors.

American Express’s (AXP) shares fell nearly 4% after the credit card giant missed quarterly earnings expectations and posted a weak full-year profit outlook. Consensus estimates suggest the current reporting season will be a flop. Real GDP growth is expected to deteriorate towards the end of the year.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Friday. The German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.17% (+1.02% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.65% (+1.62% for the week) on Friday, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.55% (+1.66% for the week), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.23% (+3.08% for the week).

The ECB will hold a monetary policy meeting this week. The ECB is expected to raise the rate by 0.25%. But the focus will be on the central bank’s plans for September, and markets are divided on whether there will be another hike or whether the ECB will hit the pause button. ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to reiterate that future decisions will be based on incoming economic data. Europe’s economic outlook is deteriorating rapidly, with GDP falling in a number of key economies, business activity falling, and manufacturing declining. The only thing holding the economy together is a strong labor market.

Crude oil prices rose for the fourth week in a row. On Friday and Saturday, Russia continued to attack Ukrainian food export businesses in southern Ukraine and escalated tensions after pulling out of an UN-brokered safe sea corridor agreement to transport Ukrainian grain. Moscow has set a condition for the grain deal in the form of lifting some sanctions but is deliberately destroying Ukraine’s port infrastructure, confirming its reputation as a terrorist state.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.87% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.64%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week down by 1.29%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week positive by 0.15%.

On Monday, Hong Kong stocks fell amid signs that foreign investors are cutting their bets on China’s biggest companies as Beijing refrains from major stimulus measures amid a deteriorating economy.

Japan’s trade balance data last week showed a trade surplus in June, which could lead to wage growth going forward if demand for Japanese goods remains strong. Wage growth tends to be accompanied by rising prices, meaning inflation will continue to rise slowly, which is crucial for the Bank of Japan before it changes its loose monetary policy. At the same time, Japan’s top financial diplomat suggested on Friday that the central bank may change its approach to monetary stimulus at its policy meeting because of “signs of change” in corporate behavior regarding wage growth and price increases.

New Zealand recorded a small trade surplus in June, mainly due to lower volumes and values of imported gasoline and diesel. Imports and exports totaled about $16.3 billion, with exports exceeding imports by only $8.8 million. These figures are better than Westpac’s forecast of a $450 million monthly deficit. However, they do not change the overall picture of an alarming annual deficit. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the country’s trade deficit for the second quarter totaled $2.3 billion.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,536.34 +1.47 (+0.032%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,227.69 +2.51 (+0.01%)

DAX (DE40)  16,177.22 −27.00 (−0.17%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,663.73 +17.68 (+0.23%)

USD Index  101.09 +0.21 (+0.20%)

Important events for today:
  • – New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (5,576 contracts) with the Fed Funds (4,285 contracts) also having a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-101,216 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-47,680 contracts), 5-Year Bonds (-89,405 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-12,310 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-36,694 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,485 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-18-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months9,743,75593-64,8147671,65323-6,83984
FedFunds1,587,83854-160,57425171,10975-10,53570
2-Year3,654,98699-1,119,38001,019,100100100,280100
Long T-Bond1,248,00661-143,29438102,8994740,39578
10-Year4,746,65791-629,56121627,008862,55374
5-Year5,333,980100-1,145,48901,099,01410046,47594

 


Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (76 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (38 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (25 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (5 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (7.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (21.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (14.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (38.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (42.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (4.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (76.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (82.9 percent)

 

Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (14 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (-7 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-20 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-13 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (13.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (2.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (-13.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-8.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-9.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (12.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-8.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-19.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-23.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-13.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-13.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-7.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-0.5 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -64,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -101,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.460.40.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.159.70.3
– Net Position:-64,81471,653-6,839
– Gross Longs:1,698,7095,884,63626,636
– Gross Shorts:1,763,5235,812,98333,475
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.023.484.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.26.74.9

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -160,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -164,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.073.32.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.162.52.8
– Net Position:-160,574171,109-10,535
– Gross Longs:63,8141,163,31434,331
– Gross Shorts:224,388992,20544,866
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.175.070.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.5-13.2-4.6

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,119,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -47,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,071,700 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.282.36.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.954.44.2
– Net Position:-1,119,3801,019,100100,280
– Gross Longs:337,3313,008,318252,359
– Gross Shorts:1,456,7111,989,218152,079
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.214.52.4

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,145,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -89,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,056,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.785.17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.164.56.2
– Net Position:-1,145,4891,099,01446,475
– Gross Longs:355,9664,540,528376,738
– Gross Shorts:1,501,4553,441,514330,263
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.093.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.57.09.9

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -629,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,576 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -635,137 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.280.78.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.567.58.0
– Net Position:-629,561627,0082,553
– Gross Longs:438,5673,828,697382,073
– Gross Shorts:1,068,1283,201,689379,520
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.486.074.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.0-7.0-12.6

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -185,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -36,694 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.478.19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.062.614.6
– Net Position:-185,167270,572-85,405
– Gross Longs:180,7051,361,599170,041
– Gross Shorts:365,8721,091,027255,446
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.792.263.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.711.3-5.9

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -143,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.378.414.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.870.211.3
– Net Position:-143,294102,89940,395
– Gross Longs:79,100978,891181,270
– Gross Shorts:222,394875,992140,875
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.047.377.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.621.8-0.5

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -439,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -432,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.482.611.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.457.67.6
– Net Position:-439,397377,89461,503
– Gross Longs:81,2651,250,311176,653
– Gross Shorts:520,662872,417115,150
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.690.595.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.411.310.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.