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COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Platinum & Copper

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (6,863 contracts) with Copper (4,584 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-4,643 contracts), Silver (-842 contracts), Steel (-720 contracts) and with Palladium (-18 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (66.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (68.4 percent)
Silver (92.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (93.3 percent)
Copper (100.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (95.3 percent)
Platinum (54.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (36.2 percent)
Palladium (15.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.2 percent)
Steel (83.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.2 percent)

Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (40 percent) and Platinum (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-6 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (0.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.2 percent)
Silver (3.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.9 percent)
Copper (40.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (26.6 percent)
Platinum (17.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.4 percent)
Palladium (-7.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.5 percent)
Steel (-6.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 199,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 204,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.4	23.6	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	66.5	5.1
– Net Position:	199,567	-227,266	27,699
– Gross Longs:	272,144	124,899	54,701
– Gross Shorts:	72,577	352,165	27,002
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	32.5	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-3.6	27.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 53,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	24.2	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	70.2	7.2
– Net Position:	53,652	-74,415	20,763
– Gross Longs:	81,650	39,225	32,441
– Gross Shorts:	27,998	113,640	11,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.1	3.6	82.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-11.3	36.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,064 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	21.4	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	44.7	5.1
– Net Position:	62,648	-70,012	7,364
– Gross Longs:	160,147	64,280	22,549
– Gross Shorts:	97,499	134,292	15,185
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.2	-37.6	-2.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.1	24.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	47.2	4.9
– Net Position:	13,660	-18,348	4,688
– Gross Longs:	45,232	19,732	8,620
– Gross Shorts:	31,572	38,080	3,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.5	44.7	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-15.1	-7.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,088 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	51.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.7	10.2	6.8
– Net Position:	-11,088	10,600	488
– Gross Longs:	5,823	13,220	2,230
– Gross Shorts:	16,911	2,620	1,742
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.1	85.1	71.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	3.6	36.1

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,663 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	80.4	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	67.4	1.2
– Net Position:	-3,383	3,335	48
– Gross Longs:	3,606	20,678	362
– Gross Shorts:	6,989	17,343	314
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.4	17.3	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	5.8	8.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

11 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by Fed Funds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (126,619 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (49,384 contracts) also having a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-48,655 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-17,251 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-24,279 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-5,970 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-5,790 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-1,555 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (98 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (75 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (13 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (29 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (97.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (70.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (29.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (29.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (20.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (38.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (42.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (74.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (75.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (58.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (60.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (42.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (44.0 percent)

Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (68 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (9 percent) are the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-35 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-7 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (67.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (43.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-6.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-7.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-0.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (13.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-15.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-22.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-1.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-34.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-31.9 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -339,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -315,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	59.4	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	56.1	0.4
– Net Position:	-339,562	341,716	-2,154
– Gross Longs:	1,446,213	6,144,809	36,213
– Gross Shorts:	1,785,775	5,803,093	38,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	57.3	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.5	33.9	7.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 136,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 126,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	54.8	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	63.2	2.6
– Net Position:	136,965	-127,034	-9,931
– Gross Longs:	356,452	833,174	30,131
– Gross Shorts:	219,487	960,208	40,062
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.8	2.7	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	67.7	-65.7	-15.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,022,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,016,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	79.2	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	57.6	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,022,233	880,495	141,738
– Gross Longs:	516,333	3,230,397	269,053
– Gross Shorts:	1,538,566	2,349,902	127,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	67.1	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	6.4	7.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,163,849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,146,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	83.2	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	65.7	5.4
– Net Position:	-1,163,849	1,059,427	104,422
– Gross Longs:	483,030	5,038,983	429,855
– Gross Shorts:	1,646,879	3,979,556	325,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.5	78.8	85.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	1.3	-0.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -481,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -48,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -432,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	77.9	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	67.6	8.8
– Net Position:	-481,620	457,222	24,398
– Gross Longs:	455,924	3,437,718	411,798
– Gross Shorts:	937,544	2,980,496	387,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	53.5	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-10.6	-3.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -214,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 49,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -263,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	76.3	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	62.1	13.8
– Net Position:	-214,299	304,341	-90,042
– Gross Longs:	268,050	1,635,316	205,566
– Gross Shorts:	482,349	1,330,975	295,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.9	89.0	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	26.1	-18.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,555 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	69.6	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	70.5	10.2
– Net Position:	-24,669	-14,890	39,559
– Gross Longs:	267,918	1,116,846	202,830
– Gross Shorts:	292,587	1,131,736	163,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	8.8	76.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	8.8	-13.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -316,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -310,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	79.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	61.3	10.1
– Net Position:	-316,115	305,248	10,867
– Gross Longs:	147,986	1,312,271	176,682
– Gross Shorts:	464,101	1,007,023	165,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	45.9	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	10.8	-3.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

11 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by DowJones & Russell 2000

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones & Russell 2000

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (3,466 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (2,289 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (1,633 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were S&P500-Mini (-52,828 contracts), the VIX (-16,446 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,851 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-1,616 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (74 percent) and the VIX (73 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (46 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (73.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (90.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (63.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (71.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (74.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (68.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (46.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (43.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (58.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (56.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (51.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (51.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (54.9 percent)

S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (24 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (18 percent) and the VIX (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (24.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (23.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (35.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-18.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-28.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (17.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-13.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-19.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-7.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-6.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-3.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	42.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	32.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-38,879	41,509	-2,630
– Gross Longs:	98,258	171,486	30,089
– Gross Shorts:	137,137	129,977	32,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.0	25.1	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-2.4	-14.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,695 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -52,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	70.7	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	75.4	8.6
– Net Position:	-9,695	-95,129	104,824
– Gross Longs:	262,778	1,436,696	280,192
– Gross Shorts:	272,473	1,531,825	175,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	26.8	78.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.8	-23.4	4.0

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	61.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	73.2	12.5
– Net Position:	8,664	-10,847	2,183
– Gross Longs:	19,305	57,061	13,773
– Gross Shorts:	10,641	67,908	11,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	22.5	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	19.4	-10.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	52.8	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	57.4	14.7
– Net Position:	4,405	-10,633	6,228
– Gross Longs:	65,234	124,251	40,762
– Gross Shorts:	60,829	134,884	34,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	40.8	85.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-10.5	-4.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	76.0	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	69.2	4.9
– Net Position:	-38,000	31,638	6,362
– Gross Longs:	72,277	353,891	29,050
– Gross Shorts:	110,277	322,253	22,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.1	40.8	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	12.8	-12.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	66.6	24.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	56.5	13.1
– Net Position:	-3,407	1,621	1,786
– Gross Longs:	1,465	10,675	3,885
– Gross Shorts:	4,872	9,054	2,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	40.9	66.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	10.3	-12.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	90.5	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	88.5	1.6
– Net Position:	-13,996	7,912	6,084
– Gross Longs:	24,945	373,543	12,596
– Gross Shorts:	38,941	365,631	6,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	45.2	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	5.5	3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

11 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (112,070 contracts) with Soybeans (102,295 contracts), Soybean Meal (41,851 contracts), Wheat (6,671 contracts) and Soybean Oil (4,889 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Lean Hogs (-13,582 contracts), Sugar (-11,744 contracts), Cotton (-11,086 contracts), Coffee (-5,713 contracts), Live Cattle (-328 contracts) and with Cocoa (-590 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (87 percent) and Lean Hogs (61 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (58 percent) and Wheat (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Soybean Oil (3 percent) and Cotton (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (29.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.6 percent)
Sugar (0.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.2 percent)
Coffee (87.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (92.7 percent)
Soybeans (32.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (57.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (40.6 percent)
Live Cattle (25.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (26.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (61.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (72.3 percent)
Cotton (14.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.2 percent)
Cocoa (37.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (37.7 percent)
Wheat (55.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (50.5 percent)

Soybean Meal & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (43 percent) and Wheat (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (22 percent), Corn (19 percent) and Coffee (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-61 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-26 percent), Sugar (-26 percent) and Live Cattle (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (18.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.1 percent)
Sugar (-26.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Coffee (6.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.9 percent)
Soybeans (22.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-26.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-22.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (42.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (31.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-25.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-32.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (3.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.0 percent)
Cotton (-60.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-54.5 percent)
Cocoa (-10.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-18.8 percent)
Wheat (30.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (21.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 112,070 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -143,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	42.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	38.8	11.3
– Net Position:	-31,354	56,642	-25,288
– Gross Longs:	311,911	621,487	139,562
– Gross Shorts:	343,265	564,845	164,850
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	70.0	74.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.7	-18.3	-11.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	53.1	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	56.1	8.4
– Net Position:	28,561	-25,176	-3,385
– Gross Longs:	200,063	438,212	65,992
– Gross Shorts:	171,502	463,388	69,377
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	100.0	12.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.0	27.9	-28.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 62,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	35.2	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	64.2	2.7
– Net Position:	62,877	-66,039	3,162
– Gross Longs:	85,054	79,896	9,211
– Gross Shorts:	22,177	145,935	6,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.2	12.4	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-8.1	21.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -60,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 102,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -162,343 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	57.4	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	47.4	8.8
– Net Position:	-60,048	74,323	-14,275
– Gross Longs:	123,324	426,277	51,042
– Gross Shorts:	183,372	351,954	65,317
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	69.1	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-21.4	-4.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -51,553 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	53.3	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	44.1	5.3
– Net Position:	-51,553	50,351	1,202
– Gross Longs:	113,697	293,066	30,181
– Gross Shorts:	165,250	242,715	28,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.0	97.3	18.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.1	24.4	-7.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 41,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,119 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	40.1	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	61.0	5.5
– Net Position:	73,970	-95,405	21,435
– Gross Longs:	139,373	182,605	46,648
– Gross Shorts:	65,403	278,010	25,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	39.9	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.5	-43.0	21.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	36.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	49.8	11.9
– Net Position:	43,475	-37,324	-6,151
– Gross Longs:	96,844	98,469	26,308
– Gross Shorts:	53,369	135,793	32,459
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	77.1	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.3	26.5	9.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	35.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	46.4	9.8
– Net Position:	38,356	-31,763	-6,593
– Gross Longs:	100,612	103,759	22,074
– Gross Shorts:	62,256	135,522	28,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.2	40.0	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.6	-3.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,086 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	44.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	48.0	6.0
– Net Position:	8,136	-7,960	-176
– Gross Longs:	66,141	93,741	12,568
– Gross Shorts:	58,005	101,701	12,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	85.0	15.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-60.6	60.5	-52.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,152 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	35.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	57.1	3.9
– Net Position:	26,562	-32,495	5,933
– Gross Longs:	44,579	51,829	11,641
– Gross Shorts:	18,017	84,324	5,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	59.5	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	9.9	-1.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -17,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	36.6	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	29.3	9.3
– Net Position:	-17,785	27,005	-9,220
– Gross Longs:	122,686	135,193	25,281
– Gross Shorts:	140,471	108,188	34,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	46.8	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.5	-25.7	-40.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

10 May

Natural gas prices are rising amid falling inventories. The Bank of England expectedly kept the rate

By JustMarkets

Yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.85%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.51%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.27%. Stock index prices found support on Thursday as bond yields fell after US weekly jobless claims rose more than expected to an 8-month high, boosting hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates earlier.

US weekly jobless claims rose 22,000 to an 8.5-month high of 231,000, indicating a weak labor market compared to expectations of 212,000. On Thursday, hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Daly had a slightly negative impact on equities towards the end of the day when she stated that interest rates are currently holding back the economy. Still, inflation may take “more time” to return to the Fed’s target level.

Equinix (EQIX) climbed more than 11% and topped the list of top gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting adjusted first-quarter earnings of $992 million, above the consensus forecast of $976.9 million. Airbnb (ABNB) was down more than 6% and topped the list of Nasdaq 100 losers after reporting second-quarter revenue of $2.68, weaker than the consensus forecast of $2.74 billion.

First-quarter earnings results were mostly better than expected, which is favorable for the stock. First-quarter earnings are expected to grow 6.5% YoY, well above the 3.8% forecast.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.69%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.92%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 0.33%.

As expected, the Bank of England (BOE) kept its key rate unchanged at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting and said the risks of continued inflation are diminishing. BOE Governor Bailey said, “It’s likely that we will need to cut the bank rate over the coming quarters and make monetary policy less restrictive over the forecast period, possibly more so than currently priced into market rates.” He added that a change in the bank rate in June “is neither ruled out nor a fait accompli.”

Precious metals prices closed higher on Thursday, with gold hitting a 1-week high and silver hitting a 2-week high. Silver prices rose on Thursday, which was a sign of stronger demand for industrial metals in China. The Chinese trade news showed that China’s exports and imports rose more than expected.

WTI crude futures climbed to $80 a barrel on Friday, rising for the third consecutive session and posting a strong weekly gain amid an improving global demand outlook and ongoing hostilities in the Middle East, which helped boost oil prices. On Thursday, data showed that China’s crude oil imports rose in April, with strong trade figures in the world’s largest crude importer signaling improving demand.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices rose more than 5% on Thursday to surpass $2.3 MMBtu, the highest in nearly four months. The rise was helped by a smaller-than-expected increase in gas in storage, reinforcing expectations of strong demand over the next two weeks and production cuts. The US inventories added 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage last week, while the market had expected an increase of 87 bcf.

Asian markets were mixed on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) closed negative 0.34% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.30% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.22% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.06%.

Malaysia’s unemployment rate fell to 3.3% in March 2024 from 3.5% in the corresponding month last year, returning to pre-pandemic levels for the fifth consecutive month. The number of unemployed fell 3.8% year-on-year to 566.6k, while employment rose 1.9% to a record high of 16.53 million.

In New Zealand, the RBNZ is expected to keep the interest rate at 5.5% at its meeting later this month. This stance aligns with the OECD’s recent call for the central bank to maintain a restrictive policy until there are clearer signs that inflation is moving towards the target. In addition, the country’s manufacturing sector showed tentative signs of recovery in April despite the protracted economic downturn.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,214.08 +26.41 (+0.51%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,387.76 +331.37 (+0.85%)

DAX (DE40) 18,686.60 +188.22 (+1.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,381.35 +27.30 (+0.33%)

USD Index 105.23 -0.32 (-0.30%)

Important events today:

– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

09 May

Strong data on China’s trade balance fuels Asian indices

By JustMarkets

US stock indices showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrials Index hitting a 1-month high. The Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.44%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index was virtually unchanged for the day. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.18% yesterday. Hawkish comments from the Fed and a rise in bond yields on Wednesday pressured stocks. On Wednesday, Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins emphasized the need to cool the US economy to meet the central bank’s 2% inflation target. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 10% for the June 12 FOMC meeting, 34% for the next meeting on July 31, and 66% for the September meeting.

Lyft shares are up more than 6% after the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter gross orders and forecast second-quarter gross orders above consensus. On the negative side, Uber Technologies fell more than 5% after reporting Q1 gross orders below consensus and forecasting weaker-than-expected gross orders in Q2.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.37%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.69% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.65%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 0.49%.

The Bank of England (BoE) will hold a monetary policy meeting today. The Bank of England is expected to leave the interest rate at 5.25%, keeping the forward guidance unchanged and leaving options open regarding the timing of a rate cut. This will cause traders and investors to shift their attention to Bank of England Governor Bailey’s speech at the press conference. If the press conference does not clarify the timing of the first rate cut, the UK index will likely come under pressure. However, if Bailey hints that the first rate cut will take place in late summer, presumably at the August meeting, it could hurt to give the index an additional boost.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $79 a barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session. Official data showed a decline in US crude inventories, suggesting a tightening of supply. EIA data showed US crude inventories fell by 1.361 million barrels last week, a reversal from a 7.265 million barrel jump in the previous period, as refinery activity picked up. The outlook for OPEC+ production policy also remains highly uncertain ahead of the group’s June 1 meeting.

Asian markets were mostly up on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) closed negative 1.63% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.61% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.90% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.14%. But mainland Chinese stocks hit new multi-month highs as investors reacted to China’s trade data for April. The data showed that Chinese imports jumped 8.4% in April from a year earlier, beating predictions of 5.4%. Exports also rose 1.5%, above the 1% increase expected by analysts. The latest data was a pleasant surprise amid growing concerns that the US may impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods.

Hong Kong stocks were up 0.75% in early trading on Thursday, rising for the first time in three sessions. The city is reportedly working to attract a new set of investors from Saudi Arabia to replace investors from the US and Europe at a time of rising geopolitical tensions. The move comes after China said last month it would support companies holding IPOs in Hong Kong.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,187.67 −0.03 (−0.01%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,056.39 +172.13 (+0.44%)

DAX (DE40) 18,498.38 +68.33 (+0.37%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,354.05 +40.38 (+0.49%)

USD Index 105.51 +0.10 (+0.09%)

Important events today:

– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BOE Monetary Policy Report at 14:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

09 May

How does the brain think?

By Jennifer Robinson, Auburn University

Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to [email protected].

How does the brain think? – Tom, age 16, San Diego, California

Have you ever wondered how your brain creates thoughts or why something randomly popped into your head? It may seem like magic – but actually the brain is like a supercomputer inside your head that helps you think, learn and make decisions.

Imagine your brain as a busy city with lots of streets and buildings. Each part of the brain has a specific job to do, just like certain areas of a city or certain buildings serve different purposes. When you have a thought, it’s like a message traveling through the city, passing from one area to another.

As a professor of psychology and neuroscience, I have studied the brain for almost 20 years. Neurologists, neuroscientists and neurosurgeons work every day to understand the brain better. And there’s still a lot to learn.

Your brain has four major compartments, and each compartment has lots of “buildings.”

Practice and repetition create skills

The neuron is a key player in the brain – these are tiny cells that send and receive signals and messages so they can communicate with each other.

Your brain has somewhere between 80 billion and 100 billion neurons. Neurons tend to group together to form neural tracts, which would be like the streets and highways in the city analogy. When you have a thought, neurons in your brain fire up and create electrical impulses. These impulses tend to travel along similar pathways and release tiny chemicals called neurotransmitters along the way.

These neurotransmitters are like the construction crew that builds the roads, making it easier for the messages to be delivered. You can imagine it as a dirt road, but as more traffic – that is, neuron signals – travel the dirt road, the road gets upgraded to a paved street. If the traffic continues, it gets upgraded to a highway.

As you learn new things and experience the world around you, these connections grow stronger. For example, when you are learning to ride a bike, you may be unsteady and find it hard to coordinate all of the different muscles along with your ability to balance. But the more you practice, the more the neurons controlling your muscles and your ability to balance fire together, which makes it much easier as you practice. Neurons are wiring together and forming neural networks.

That’s why practice and repetition are important for improving your skills, whether playing the piano or learning a language. Neural networks are created and then strengthened the more times they communicate together. Scientists have a saying in this field: “Neurons that fire together wire together.” Certain thinking or behavior patterns can be chalked up to this kind of repeated synchronized activity.

Developing creativity

You are conscious of only a very small portion of the information your brain takes in. It is constantly receiving input from your senses – sights, sounds, tastes, smells and touch. When you see a cute puppy or hear your favorite song, your senses send signals to the brain, triggering a chain reaction of thoughts and emotions.

The brain also stores memories, which are like files in a computer that you can access whenever you need them. Memories help shape your thoughts and influence how you see the world.

If you remember a fun day at the beach, it might make you feel happy and relaxed. If you smell an apple pie, it may remind you of your grandma’s baking. These thoughts are triggered because these pleasant associations have been formed in your brain, and through repetition, strengthened over time.

Creativity is another superpower of the brain. When you let your imagination run wild, your brain can come up with new ideas, stories and inventions. Artists, writers and scientists all use their creative brains to explore new possibilities and solve problems.

Have you ever experienced a “eureka” moment when a brilliant idea pops into your head out of nowhere? That’s your brain’s way of connecting the dots and coming up with a solution.

Walnuts, leafy greens, chickpeas and berries are on the list of brain foods.

Keeping your brain healthy

Most scientists agree that sleep is really important for your brain to process information from the day and to allow it to rest and form new connections. A lot of people find that they have new ideas or thoughts after a good night’s sleep. The opposite is true, too – without enough sleep, you may feel like you can’t think straight.

Along with enough sleep, eat healthy foods and exercise. Just like a car needs fuel to run smoothly, your brain needs nutrients and oxygen to function at its best and to boost your thinking power.

Activities that challenge you are also great: reading, doing puzzles, playing music, making art, doing math, writing essays and book reports and journaling. Positive thinking also helps. Keep in mind that whatever you are consuming – what you’re eating or what you’re watching, listening to or reading – has the power to influence your brain.

Conversely, smoking cigarettes, vaping, drinking alcohol and using drugs kills brain cells. So might head injuries that can occur when playing sports such as football, soccer and bicycling – but wearing a helmet can make a big difference.

The brain is a fascinating organ that works tirelessly to create thoughts, memories and ideas. As technology continues to improve, scientists will learn more and more about how biological processes give rise to our conscious experiences. The challenges of learning about the brain are like a neuroscientific moonshot – we have a long way to go before we completely understand how it works.

Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to [email protected]. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

Jennifer Robinson, Professor of Psychology, Auburn University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

09 May

Target Thursdays: UK100, Wheat & EURUSD hit targets!

By ForexTime

UK100 bulls bag 770 points

Wheat “throwback” rewards bears

EURUSD secures all bearish targets

Here are how these discussed instruments performed this week:

1) UK100 touches fresh record high

Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

In our week ahead article published on Friday, 3rd May:

We were bullish on the UK100 and suggested that a solid “close above 8200 may encourage a move toward the next psychological level at 8300”

What happened since TP was published?

After hitting a fresh all-time high last Friday, the index extended gains on Tuesday after the bank holiday at the start of the week.

A weaker pound and optimism around the Bank of England (BoE) cutting interest rates down the road have turbocharged FTSE100 bulls.

Note: UK100 could see more volatility this week due to the upcoming BoE meeting and Q1 GDP figures

How much in potential profits?

Those who took advantage of a move above 8223 would have been rewarded 770 points.

2) Wheat ready to resume upside?

Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

Earlier in the week, we discussed how FXTM’S new commodity Wheat could push higher due to fundamental forces.

However, we cautioned that “prices may experience a technical throwback” with “sustained weakness below 629 opening a path towards 615….”

What happened since TP was published?

Wheat prices slipped on Wednesday, tumbling towards the 615 level before prices rebounded back towards 629.

Note: The soft commodity could see more volatility this week due to the WASDE report on Friday.

How much in potential profits?

Traders who took advantage of the breakdown below 629 and exited at 615 would have caught a roughly 2% move to the downside.

3) EURUSD hits all bearish targets

Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (EURUSD) is based on the FXTM Signals that are released once a day, before the opening of the U.S. trading session.

These signals are designed around a trading instrument’s most influential factor – PRICE – making them a powerful asset to your trading strategy.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

What happened since TP was published?

The EURUSD fell as the dollar appreciated across the board.

Market caution and hawkish comments from a Fed official seem to be supporting the greenback.

How much in potential profits?

EURUSD has hit all its profit targets.

Traders who entered at 1.07418 and exited at the final target level of 1.07271 would have gained roughly 15 pips.

Feel like you missed out on these profits?

You can keep following our “Daily Market Analysis” for fresh trading ideas and opportunities across global financial markets.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

08 May

USDSEK: Golden cross on the horizon?

By ForexTime

USDSEK jumps on Riksbank cut

Currency pair in megaphone pattern

Key point of reference at golden 161.8 Fib level

Potential golden cross on horizon

Other key levels at 11.0678 and 10.8333

The USDSEK punched above 10.9 on Wednesday after Sweden’s central bank cut rates for the first time in eight years!

In an expected move, the Riksbank trimmed its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% and signalled two more cuts in the second half of 2024. This makes Sweden’s Riksbank the second major one after the Swiss National Bank to cut interest rates.

As of writing, traders see a 67% probability of another 25 basis point Riksbank cut by June with this fully priced in by August.

The Riksbank dovish stance contrasts with the US Federal Reserve which has struggled to cut rates in the face of sticky inflation.

Incoming data from the US this week is likely to influence bets around when the Fed will join the rate cut club.

At 12:30, GMT, the Unemployment claims data out of the US is expected to show 212,00 individuals filed for unemployment for the first time during the past week. If so, this will signal a relatively healthy labor market and continue to weaken bets of near-term rate cuts.

Technically speaking,

USDSEK is in a broadening pattern, also known as a megaphone.

In a broadening pattern, price peaks and valleys, are bounded by two diverging trendlines.

USDSEK is in a 3-day rally (coming off the support of the megaphone) and may be heading for the upper trendline of the pattern at 11.0678.

Golden cross on the horizon?

Interestingly, the 50-day SMA is close to crossing above the 200-day SMA.

This price phenomenon is called a “golden cross” and is used as an early “warning” sign to show that price could rally further.

When we add the Fibonacci retracement tool, drawn from November 30th 2023 high (10.5387) to December 27th 2023 low (9.9043), we see 10.9309 at the golden fib (161.8%) ratio acting as resistance and a point of reference.

A strong close above this level may open the floodgates for USDSEK bulls (those looking to see the minor pair rally).

However, USDSEK bears (those looking to see a decline in the pair) will have their eyes set on the following levels.

10.8333: the 21-day SMA
10.7079: the lower trendline of the broadening pattern

Finally, the Relative Strength Index, – an indicator that shows overbought and over-sold zones- is above the 50-point mid-way line and pointing upwards towards the overbought zone, signaling a bullish sentiment in the asset.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 May

Oil prices are rising amid rumors of increased production by OPEC countries. European indices are growing amid the “dovish” position of the ECB

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices traded mixed on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.08%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.13%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.10% yesterday. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari’s comments on Tuesday were hawkish when he said that given the latest inflation data, he doubts that Fed policy is restrictive enough to bring price growth back to the Fed’s 2% target. He added that the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged “for an extended period” until it is satisfied that inflation will align with the target. Investors await further comments from the central bank and Friday’s Michigan consumer sentiment index to better understand how rates will move.

First-quarter earnings results were mostly better than expected, which is favorable for the stock. First-quarter earnings are expected to be up 6.5% YoY, well above the 3.8% forecast before the reporting season.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.40%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.99% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.50%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 1.22%.

ECB Governing Council representative De Cos said that the ECB may cut interest rates in June if inflation persists. On the back of positive economic news from the Eurozone, European indices were supported on Tuesday. Eurozone retail sales for March rose by 0.8% m/m, which exceeded expectations of 0.7% m/m and was the largest increase in a year and a half. German factory orders for March unexpectedly fell by 0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.4% m/m. German trade news was better than expected: exports for March added 0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of 0.3% m/m. In addition, imports for March unexpectedly rose by 0.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of 1.0% m/m.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $78 per barrel on Wednesday, back to their lowest levels in nearly two months after reports that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said OPEC+ may consider increasing oil production. The group of major producers will meet on June 1 to decide on production policy for the year’s second half. The current supply agreement, which takes about 2.2 million barrels a day off the market, expires at the end of June.

Asian markets were mostly up on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) closed up 1.57% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.25% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.53% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.44%.

The Hang Seng (HK50) attempted to near its highest level in eight months as traders focused on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Europe this week and how trade relations will develop despite ongoing inspections of various sectors. On the fiscal front, Beijing will allocate billions of yuan to upgrade infrastructure in China’s cities over the next three years. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves in China fell more than expected to US$3.20 trillion in April, and Hong Kong’s fell to the lowest level in six months, US $416.4 billion.

Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki repeated a warning that authorities are ready to respond to excessive currency volatility. At the same time, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said they will study the impact of yen movements on inflation to guide policy decisions. Analysts say the intervention will only give the authorities some time, given the sharp interest rate differential between Japan and the US.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,187.70 +6.96 (+0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,884.26 +31.99 (+0.082%)

DAX (DE40) 18,430.05 +254.84 (+1.40%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,313.67 +100.18 (+1.22%)

USD Index 105.37 +0.32 (+0.32%)

Important events today:

– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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