InvestMacro

This company’s stock price “broke a support shelf that dates back 14 years”

By Elliott Wave International

Back in October 2021, two months before Germany’s DAX hit an all-time high, our Global Market Perspective showed a big jump in references to “Lehman” in Bloomberg News.

Of course, the use of “Lehman” in a news article has become synonymous with the collapse of the then financial giant during the depths of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

The October 2021 Global Market Perspective, an Elliott Wave International monthly publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets, said:

The Lehman moment will come later, after investor optimism has receded and stock prices are well off their highs.

That was a year ago, and since then, Europe’s key stock indexes have been in a downward trend. In other words, investor optimism across the Continent has indeed receded.

The October 2022 Global Market Perspective noted:

Right on schedule, the Lehman moment just arrived at one of the Continent’s most critical sectors: “Europe’s Lehman Warning on Energy Prompts Flurry of Cash Aid” — Bloomberg, 9/6/22.

The October Global Market Perspective continued with these charts and commentary:

The chart shows stock prices at two of Europe’s utility behemoths. Centrica, the largest supplier of gas to domestic customers in the UK, trades at levels last seen in the 1990s, while Fortum Oyj, Finland’s largest company by revenue, dropped 68% over the past nine months and broke a support shelf that dates back 14 years.

… The Finnish government stepped in with a €2.4 billion bridge loan to Fortum, while Centrica is seeking billions of pounds of financing amidst soaring demands for collateral.

Then there is this chart of Uniper, the European gas giant sitting at the epicenter of the energy earthquake. On September 20, the German government forked over 8 billion “to nationalize the gas giant and stave off a collapse of the country’s energy sector.” (Bloomberg, 9/20/22)

Stave off a collapse? The chart shows that Uniper has already collapsed despite every effort.

Some of Europe’s energy sector firms face the same kind of liquidity problem which wrecked established investment banks a decade ago. Uniper was reportedly losing €100 million per day in early September, and Fortum’s collateral requirement jumped by €1 billion over one single week.

Getting back to the downtrend in major European stock indexes, the Elliott wave method for analyzing financial markets can help you determine if the decline in prices is nearly over or if there’s much more to go.

If you need to brush up on your Elliott wave knowledge, or are entirely new to the subject, an ideal resource is Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote:

[R.N.] Elliott himself never speculated on why the market’s essential form is five waves to progress and three waves to regress. He simply noted that that was what was happening. Does the essential form have to be five waves and three waves? Think about it and you will realize that this is the minimum requirement for, and therefore the most efficient method of, achieving both fluctuation and progress in linear movement. One wave does not allow fluctuation. The fewest subdivisions to create fluctuation is three waves. Three waves (of unqualified size) in both directions would not allow progress. To progress in one direction despite periods of regress, movements in that direction must be at least five waves, simply to cover more ground than the intervening three waves. While there could be more waves than that, the most efficient form of punctuated progress is 5-3, and nature typically follows the most efficient path.

If you’d like to read the entire online version of the book, you may do so for free once you become a member of Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community (about 500,000 worldwide members and growing rapidly).

A Club EWI membership is also free and allows you complimentary access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources. All the while, you are under no obligation.

Get started by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — free and instant access.

Source: Streetwise Reports  (10/17/22)

Jericho Energy Ventures is working to bring its zero-emission hydrogen boilers to companies for commercial heating, hot water, and industrial steam.

An independent third-party firm has rated Jericho Energy Ventures Inc.’s (JEV:TSX.V; JROOF:OTCMKTS) zero-emissions hydrogen boiler technology as nearly 100% fuel efficient.

The company’s Dynamic Combustion Chamber™ boiler was tested by Process Engineering Associates LLC.

“All off-gas samples taken during the test did not detect hydrogen in the sample,” said Chris Muntean, a senior process engineer with Process Engineering Associates. “This data suggests that the burners are combusting the vast majority (or all) of the H2 (hydrogen) gas being supplied to the boiler. Based on these performance results, little to no fuel is left unburned.”

As technical analyst Clive Maund wrote for Streetwise Reports, hydrogen “is a fuel of the future.”

As companies shift toward greener energy sources and look to lower their carbon footprint, Jericho hopes its boiler technology will be there for commercial heating, hot water, and industrial steam boilers.

Hydrogen Technologies, a fully owned subsidiary of Jericho, has patented its method for burning hydrogen and oxygen in a vacuum chamber to create high-temperature water and steam with no greenhouse gases or other pollutants.

The only by-product is water, which is recycled. It’s meant to replace existing boilers that burn coal, natural gas, diesel, or fuel oil.

“Our system is more efficient than traditional steam systems,” Jericho Executive Officer Brian Williamson told Streetwise Reports. “They did a whole battery of tests on our system and validated that it is, in fact, 95% cost-efficient, which is  . . .  20% plus more efficient than anything else that’s out there in the market in conventional fossil fuels. There’s also 100% hydrogen burn in the system, meaning that there’s no waste.”

The Catalyst

The test backs up Jericho’s own research on the technology, and the company hopes to use the data to attract investors and customers.

Hydrogen Technologies held a demo week at the end of September in Modesto, Calif., for possible commercial and industrial clients. The company said it was so successful it plans to hold another demo week November 14-18.

The U.S. Department of Energy said the hydrogen market “is in its infancy” but that it has the “potential for near-zero greenhouse gas emissions.”

“Hydrogen generates electrical power in a fuel cell, emitting only water vapor and warm air,” the agency wrote. “It holds promise for growth in both the stationary and transportation energy sectors.”

The element is abundant in our environment and the most abundant element in the universe. It’s stored in water, hydrocarbons (such as methane), and other organic matter.

As technical analyst Clive Maund wrote for Streetwise Reports, hydrogen “is a fuel of the future.”

‘Quite a Few’ Companies Interested

Last summer, Jericho announced it was joining with Australia’s LINE Hydrogen Pty Ltd. to bring the boilers to that country. The companies are creating a distribution “hub” that will allow a constant supply of hydrogen fuel.

Jericho said additional industrial partners will be announced in the coming months, and the first DCC™ boiler is expected to be installed in Tasmania, Australia, in 2023.

Williamson said Jericho has “quite a few” companies that have already expressed interest in the boiler system. Jericho said it will target everything from large industrial plants to schools and hopes to create other duplicate hubs in other places in the world, like the United States, Canada, and Europe.

Each boiler removes the equivalent carbon dioxide of 2,500 cars a year (or about 4,400 tons of carbon dioxide), according to the company.

Jericho was once an oil and gas business. It still has interests in those sectors and has been using money from rising fossil fuel prices to help fund its push toward hydrogen.

The company began transitioning to green energy in June 2020. In January 2021, it announced the acquisition of Hydrogen Technologies. Also, last year, it announced a collaboration with Rémy Cointreau’s Bruichladdich Distillery in Scotland to install a boiler to run its stills that produce Scotch and artisanal gin.

Other green investments include in H2U Technologies Inc., which is developing an electrocatalyst discovery process for electrolyzer and fuel cell applications, and Supercritical Solutions Ltd., which is developing a new class of water electrolyzer that will allow low-cost hydrogen production. Jericho led the seed series funding round for SuperCritical and was joined by Chris Sacca’s Lowercarbon Capital as a co-investor.

Ownership and Share Structure

Top shareholders include Michael L. Graves Inter Vivos Trust with 16.43% or 37.13 million shares, McKenna & Associates LLC with 10.78% or 24.36 million shares, the CEO Williamson with 0.87% or 1.97 million shares, company Director Allen Wilson with 0.87% or 1.97 million shares, and Nicholas W. Baxter with 0.5% or 1.14 million shares.

Jericho has a market cap of CA$81.38 million with 226 million shares outstanding, 158.3 million of them free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.84 and CA$0.31.

Disclosures:
1) Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He or members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Jericho Energy Ventures. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

3) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

4) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Jericho Energy Ventures, a company mentioned in this article.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The commodities market starts the new week in October with attempts to stabilise. The Brent barrel had previously “sagged”, but is now returning to USD 92.40. It turns out that the entire positive effect of the OPEC+ decision to reduce black gold production quotas for November has now been exhausted.

This week, however, the focus of the commodities market will be on economic data from China. The main thing investors will be interested in is GDP figures for Q3, where a 3.5% y/y increase is expected, as well as figures for industrial production and retail sales. Forecasts look very weak due to the ongoing coronavirus restrictions.

Fresh data from Baker Hughes reflected an increase of 8 rigs in the US for the week up to 610. Oil production in the country stands at 12 million bpd, IEA expects to rise to 12.3 million bpd by end-December.

On the H4 Brent chart, an upside wave to 95.40 and a correction to 91.50 have been worked out. Today the market has started to form another upside wave to the level of 95.66. We expect its break up and continuation of the trend towards 99.55. The target is local. After it is reached, we will consider the probability of correction to the level of 95.66. Further – growth to 105,50. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD oscillator. Its signal line is above the zero mark and it is ready to continue growth to new highs.

On the H1 Brent chart, the corrective wave channel has been broken upwards and quotations are trading in a rising structure towards the 95.66 level. The target in the next growth wave is the first one. After it is broken down, a correction link to 93.85 is not ruled out. Further – growth to the level of 97.00 with the prospect of trend continuation to 99.55. The target is local. Technically, this scenario is also confirmed by theStochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above the 50 mark. We expect the continuation of growth towards 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By ForexTime 

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Article By RoboForex.com

BRENT

As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking the 200-day Moving Average, Brent is trading above it to indicate a possible ascending tendency. However, there is divergence on the Relative Strength Index, which is a signal in favour of decline. In this case, the pair is expected to break 6/8 (93.75) and continue falling towards the support at 5/8 (90.62). However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the resistance at 7/8 (96.88) to the upside. After that, the instrument may move upwards to reach 8/8 (100.00).

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its decline.

S&P 500

As we can see in the H4 chart, the S&P 500 index is trading inside the “oversold area”. The Relative Strength Index has broken the descending trendline to the upside. In this case, the price is expected to break 0/8 (3750.0) and continue moving upwards to reach the resistance at 1/8 (3906.2). However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the support at -1/8 (3593.8) to the downside. After that, the instrument may continue to fall towards -2/8 (3437.5).

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading upwards.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Amy Myers Jaffe, Tufts University 

Russia’s effort to conscript 300,000 reservists to counter Ukraine’s military advances in Kharkiv has drawn a lot of attention from military and political analysts. But there’s also a potential energy angle. Energy conflicts between Russia and Europe are escalating and likely could worsen as winter approaches.

One might assume that energy workers, who provide fuel and export revenue that Russia desperately needs, are too valuable to the war effort to be conscripted. So far, banking and information technology workers have received an official nod to stay in their jobs.

The situation for oil and gas workers is murkier, including swirling bits of Russian media disinformation about whether the sector will or won’t be targeted for mobilization. Either way, I expect Russia’s oil and gas operations to be destabilized by the next phase of the war.

The explosions in September 2022 that damaged the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines from Russia to Europe, and that may have been sabotage, are just the latest developments in this complex and unstable arena. As an analyst of global energy policy, I expect that more energy cutoffs could be in the cards – either directly ordered by the Kremlin to escalate economic pressure on European governments or as a result of new sabotage, or even because shortages of specialized equipment and trained Russian manpower lead to accidents or stoppages.

Dwindling natural gas flows

Russia has significantly reduced natural gas shipments to Europe in an effort to pressure European nations who are siding with Ukraine. In May 2022, the state-owned energy company Gazprom closed a key pipeline that runs through Belarus and Poland.

In June, the company reduced shipments to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which has a capacity of 170 million cubic meters per day, to only 40 million cubic meters per day. A few months later, Gazprom announced that Nord Stream 1 needed repairs and shut it down completely. Now U.S. and European leaders charge that Russia deliberately damaged the pipeline to further disrupt European energy supplies. The timing of the pipeline explosion coincided with the start up of a major new natural gas pipeline from Norway to Poland.

Russia has very limited alternative export infrastructure that can move Siberian natural gas to other customers, like China, so most of the gas it would normally be selling to Europe cannot be shifted to other markets. Natural gas wells in Siberia may need to be taken out of production, or shut in, in energy-speak, which could free up workers for conscription.

Restricting Russian oil profits

Russia’s call-up of reservists also includes workers from companies specifically focused on oil. This has led some seasoned analysts to question whether supply disruptions might spread to oil, either by accident or on purpose.

One potential trigger is the Dec. 5, 2022, deadline for the start of phase six of European Union energy sanctions against Russia. Confusion about the package of restrictions and how they will relate to a cap on what buyers will pay for Russian crude oil has muted market volatility so far. But when the measures go into effect, they could initiate a new spike in oil prices.

Under this sanctions package, Europe will completely stop buying seaborne Russian crude oil. This step isn’t as damaging as it sounds, since many buyers in Europe have already shifted to alternative oil sources.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, it exported roughly 1.4 million barrels per day of crude oil to Europe by sea, divided between Black Sea and Baltic routes. In recent months, European purchases have fallen below 1 million barrels per day. But Russia has actually been able to increase total flows from Black Sea and Baltic ports by redirecting crude oil exports to China, India and Turkey.

Russia has limited access to tankers, insurance and other services associated with moving oil by ship. Until recently, it acquired such services mainly from Europe. The change means that customers like China, India and Turkey have to transfer some of their purchases of Russian oil at sea from Russian-owned or chartered ships to ships sailing under other nations’ flags, whose services might not be covered by the European bans. This process is common and not always illegal, but often is used to evade sanctions by obscuring where shipments from Russia are ending up.

To compensate for this costly process, Russia is discounting its exports by US$40 per barrel. Observers generally assume that whatever Russian crude oil European buyers relinquish this winter will gradually find alternative outlets.

Where is Russian oil going?

The U.S. and its European allies aim to discourage this increased outflow of Russian crude by further limiting Moscow’s access to maritime services, such as tanker chartering, insurance and pilots licensed and trained to handle oil tankers, for any crude oil exports to third parties outside of the G-7 who pay rates above the U.S.-EU price cap. In my view, it will be relatively easy to game this policy and obscure how much Russia’s customers are paying.

On Sept. 9, 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued new guidance for the Dec. 5 sanctions regime. The policy aims to limit the revenue Russia can earn from its oil while keeping it flowing. It requires that unless buyers of Russian oil can certify that oil cargoes were bought for reduced prices, they will be barred from obtaining European maritime services.

However, this new strategy seems to be failing even before it begins. Denmark is still making Danish pilots available to move tankers through its precarious straits, which are a vital conduit for shipments of Russian crude and refined products. Russia has also found oil tankers that aren’t subject to European oversight to move over a third of the volume that it needs transported, and it will likely obtain more.

Traders have been getting around these sorts of oil sanctions for decades. Tricks of the trade include blending banned oil into other kinds of oil, turning off ship transponders to avoid detection of ship-to-ship transfers, falsifying documentation and delivering oil into and then later out of major storage hubs in remote parts of the globe. This explains why markets have been sanguine about the looming European sanctions deadline.

One fuel at a time

But Russian President Vladimir Putin may have other ideas. Putin has already threatened a larger oil cutoff if the G-7 tries to impose its price cap, warning that Europe will be “as frozen as a wolf’s tail,” referencing a Russian fairy tale.

U.S. officials are counting on the idea that Russia won’t want to damage its oil fields by turning off the taps, which in some cases might create long-term field pressurization problems. In my view, this is poor logic for multiple reasons, including Putin’s proclivity to sacrifice Russia’s economic future for geopolitical goals.

Russia managed to easily throttle back oil production when the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed world oil demand temporarily in 2020, and cutoffs of Russian natural gas exports to Europe have already greatly compromised Gazprom’s commercial future. Such actions show that commercial considerations are not a high priority in the Kremlin’s calculus.

How much oil would come off the market if Putin escalates his energy war? It’s an open question. Global oil demand has fallen sharply in recent months amid high prices and recessionary pressures. The potential loss of 1 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil shipments to Europe is unlikely to jack the price of oil back up the way it did initially in February 2022, when demand was still robust.

Speculators are betting that Putin will want to keep oil flowing to everyone else. China’s Russian crude imports surged as high as 2 million barrels per day following the Ukraine invasion, and India and Turkey are buying significant quantities.

Refined products like diesel fuel are due for further EU sanctions in February 2023. Russia supplies close to 40% of Europe’s diesel fuel at present, so that remains a significant economic lever.

The EU appears to know it must kick dependence on Russian energy completely, but its protected, one-product-at-a-time approach keeps Putin potentially in the driver’s seat. In the U.S., local diesel fuel prices are highly influenced by competition for seaborne cargoes from European buyers. So U.S. East Coast importers could also be in for a bumpy winter.

This article has been updated to reflect conflicting reports about the draft status of Russian oil and gas workers.

About the Author:

Amy Myers Jaffe, Research professor, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

By ForexTime

OPEC+ will be holding an in-person meeting in Vienna today, and is set to announce a major decision that’s likely to reverberate across global oil markets.

Given the forward-looking nature of markets, oil benchmarks have climbed over the past week in anticipation of today’s keenly-awaited meeting.

Brent is now in sentinel mode, hovering above the psychologically-important $90/bbl line at the time of writing, but still remains in the downtrend that’s persisted since June.

 

Brent’s recent recovery have been based on the notion that the OPEC+ alliance would significantly tighten its oil taps in November, perhaps by as much as 2 million bpd, in order to shore up prices.

What is OPEC+?

OPEC+ is an alliance of 23 major oil-producing nations, with Saudi Arabia and Russia seen as its de facto leaders.

Their collective job is to determine how much of their oil supplies are sent out into the world, which in turn influences global prices such a Brent and US Crude.

Econs 101: Supply vs. Demand

Let’s revisit some basic Economics in order to understand how OPEC+’s upcoming decision will impact oil prices:

• When supply is higher than demand = prices go down
• When demand is higher than supply = prices go up

Note in the chart above how Brent has been dropping since June.

This is because of fears that global demand for oil is weakening amid a potential recession.

Lower demand (possible global recession) + Higher supply (OPEC+ restoring supplies; more on this below) = Brent prices falling.

The declines in oil prices have already prompted OPEC+ to sit up and act.

Earlier this month, the alliance had already imposed a symbolic 100k bpd supply reduction for October.

100,000 bpd pales in comparison against the 100,000,000 (100 million) barrels that the world uses per day. That’s just 0.1%

Even with such a token sum, that was already an early sign of a U-turn.

• Recall how since July 2021, OPEC+ has been gradually raising output, or more specifically, restoring output back to pre-pandemic levels.
• Today, they could announce a sizeable lowering of its output starting in November.

The hope is that:

Elevated global demand + lower supplies = prices move back higher
(so that OPEC+ members can continue earning higher revenue from those elevated global oil prices).

Here are 3 potential scenarios for markets to consider in light of the imminent OPEC+ decision:

1. OPEC+ announces a 2 million bpd cut

Such an announcement may lead to a knee-jerk spike in oil prices.

Potential immediate resistance for Brent:

• $93.50 = 50-day simple moving average (SMA)
• $95.11 = previous cycle high

Now this is where it gets tricky, cause the devil is in the details.

Such a massive headline figure also must meaningfully change that supply-demand equation (as above) for global markets.

Note that, under the previous campaign (since mid-2021) to restore output, OPEC+ members had already been struggling to reach their respective ramped-up output quotas.

Due to years of underinvestment and even political instability in some OPEC+ members, many countries couldn’t pump out as many barrels of oil as they said they were going to under the previous agreement.

Bloomberg estimates that gap between the output target vs. the actual output = 3.5 million bpd.

Hence, even if OPEC+ announces a 2 million bpd cut, it may just be perceived as empty words and may not be an actual cut in the real world.

It all boils down to how those 2 million bpd would filter down to each OPEC+ member’s actual output levels.

2. OPEC+ announces an output cut of 1 million bpd – 1.5 million bpd

Brent prices may just hold around current levels

3. OPEC+ announces an output cut that’s smaller than 1 million bpd

Such disappointing news may prompt Brent to unwind its recent gains.

Potential immediate support levels for Brent:

(previous cycle lows)

• $86.88
• $84.77
• $82.53

Overall, OPEC+ has to forcefully demonstrate its desire to restore prices to market fundamentals in order to offer meaningful support for oil benchmarks, amid the wave of demand-destroying policy tightening by central banks around the world.

In order for oil prices to continue marching higher, the OPEC+ announcement today has to not just materially influence the global supply-demand equation, but the alliance also has to signal its willingness for more output cuts in the future.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com