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COT Bonds Futures Charts: 2-Year Treasury Note, Ultra 10-Year Notes, Eurodollars & Fed Funds

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 30 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

30-Day Federal Funds:

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	69.3	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	61.1	2.7
– Net Position:	-82,631	91,253	-8,622
– Gross Longs:	108,423	773,039	21,423
– Gross Shorts:	191,054	681,786	30,045
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.6	80.7	55.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	1.0	-9.5

2-Year Treasury Note:

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	75.1	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	61.3	5.1
– Net Position:	-346,692	322,028	24,664
– Gross Longs:	407,888	1,748,022	143,590
– Gross Shorts:	754,580	1,425,994	118,926
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	79.4	47.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.5	45.4	-16.9

5-Year Treasury Note:

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	73.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	72.9	10.7
– Net Position:	95,335	20,726	-116,061
– Gross Longs:	612,179	2,701,996	277,397
– Gross Shorts:	516,844	2,681,270	393,458
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	11.6	28.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-2.0	-30.5

10-Year Treasury Note:

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	72.7	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	66.4	12.3
– Net Position:	-89,802	246,189	-156,387
– Gross Longs:	693,797	2,857,811	326,604
– Gross Shorts:	783,599	2,611,622	482,991
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.4	41.5	31.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.3	17.6	3.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	68.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.7	76.4	17.6
– Net Position:	235,110	-101,477	-133,633
– Gross Longs:	312,051	928,708	103,248
– Gross Shorts:	76,941	1,030,185	236,881
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.8	15.8	0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-16.4	-18.0

US Treasury Bonds:

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	78.2	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	64.6	17.2
– Net Position:	-114,439	160,173	-45,734
– Gross Longs:	73,680	921,142	156,808
– Gross Shorts:	188,119	760,969	202,542
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	71.2	19.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-17.8	-15.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.3	82.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	58.0	13.2
– Net Position:	-259,124	275,130	-16,006
– Gross Longs:	60,132	927,697	132,375
– Gross Shorts:	319,256	652,567	148,381
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.9	58.3	1.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	15.4	-7.0

3-Month Eurodollars:

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	48.2	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	52.4	8.1
– Net Position:	758,106	-472,022	-286,084
– Gross Longs:	2,513,727	5,411,299	616,935
– Gross Shorts:	1,755,621	5,883,321	903,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	25.9	66.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.2	-5.2

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

27 Mar

COT Bonds Futures Charts: 5-Year, Eurodollars, Fed Funds, 10-Year Notes

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 23 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

30-Day Federal Funds:

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	69.6	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	61.9	2.5
– Net Position:	-77,447	84,148	-6,701
– Gross Longs:	108,006	761,408	21,052
– Gross Shorts:	185,453	677,260	27,753
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	79.7	58.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	0.0	-0.7

2-Year Treasury Note:

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	76.8	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	61.4	5.5
– Net Position:	-371,353	355,567	15,786
– Gross Longs:	358,007	1,766,136	142,139
– Gross Shorts:	729,360	1,410,569	126,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	85.8	43.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.0	49.7	-29.8

5-Year Treasury Note:

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	73.6	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	71.1	10.6
– Net Position:	23,047	87,030	-110,077
– Gross Longs:	563,476	2,583,170	262,000
– Gross Shorts:	540,429	2,496,140	372,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	17.5	33.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	6.6	-35.2

10-Year Treasury Note:

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	71.8	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	67.9	12.4
– Net Position:	12,297	150,830	-163,127
– Gross Longs:	719,545	2,788,076	317,965
– Gross Shorts:	707,248	2,637,246	481,092
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.6	32.3	29.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	6.2	0.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	64.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.0	76.1	17.6
– Net Position:	273,629	-157,847	-115,782
– Gross Longs:	351,116	830,326	112,370
– Gross Shorts:	77,487	988,173	228,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	12.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.1	-34.2	-10.7

US Treasury Bonds:

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	77.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	62.9	16.5
– Net Position:	-127,751	175,142	-47,391
– Gross Longs:	88,348	928,017	150,109
– Gross Shorts:	216,099	752,875	197,500
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	75.9	18.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.7	-17.6	-15.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	82.4	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	57.9	12.7
– Net Position:	-265,717	278,094	-12,377
– Gross Longs:	62,778	937,690	132,223
– Gross Shorts:	328,495	659,596	144,600
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	59.5	4.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	18.8	-0.9

3-Month Eurodollars:

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	47.3	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	52.0	8.2
– Net Position:	820,097	-517,996	-302,101
– Gross Longs:	2,557,984	5,138,354	593,215
– Gross Shorts:	1,737,887	5,656,350	895,316
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	25.2	64.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-3.4	-10.8

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog investing Opinions

20 Mar

COT Bonds Futures Charts: Eurodollars, 2-Year, 5-Year, Ultra 10-Year Notes, 30-Day Fed Funds

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 16 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

30-Day Federal Funds:

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	71.7	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	59.6	2.6
– Net Position:	-120,238	126,824	-6,586
– Gross Longs:	63,712	751,386	20,219
– Gross Shorts:	183,950	624,562	26,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.3	85.6	59.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.0	1.0

2-Year Treasury Note:

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	76.0	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	62.9	5.6
– Net Position:	-316,515	309,918	6,597
– Gross Longs:	381,076	1,799,172	138,912
– Gross Shorts:	697,591	1,489,254	132,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.0	77.0	38.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.1	31.4	-30.0

5-Year Treasury Note:

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	72.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	71.2	11.2
– Net Position:	71,859	41,620	-113,479
– Gross Longs:	581,434	2,478,234	269,227
– Gross Shorts:	509,575	2,436,614	382,706
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.6	13.4	31.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-8.1	-35.7

10-Year Treasury Note:

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	72.3	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	66.9	13.5
– Net Position:	4,104	204,053	-208,157
– Gross Longs:	661,262	2,750,856	306,792
– Gross Shorts:	657,158	2,546,803	514,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	37.4	17.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	12.2	-19.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	64.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.0	74.5	18.6
– Net Position:	255,181	-133,158	-122,023
– Gross Longs:	331,359	809,744	113,453
– Gross Shorts:	76,178	942,902	235,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	6.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.6	-35.1	-8.0

US Treasury Bonds:

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	77.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	61.4	16.4
– Net Position:	-143,237	188,582	-45,345
– Gross Longs:	92,408	927,941	152,576
– Gross Shorts:	235,645	739,359	197,921
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	80.2	19.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.3	-16.0	-16.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	81.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	58.9	12.4
– Net Position:	-258,663	260,207	-1,544
– Gross Longs:	65,590	950,409	144,267
– Gross Shorts:	324,253	690,202	145,811
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	52.3	13.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.4	13.9	10.8

3-Month Eurodollars:

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	47.8	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	51.5	8.2
– Net Position:	703,331	-391,915	-311,416
– Gross Longs:	2,417,592	5,063,373	553,161
– Gross Shorts:	1,714,261	5,455,288	864,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.1	27.0	62.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-1.9	-18.4

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog investing Opinions

13 Mar

COT Bonds Futures Charts: 10-Year Treasury Notes, Eurodollar, Fed Funds

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 09 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

30-Day Federal Funds:

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	73.5	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	59.6	2.6
– Net Position:	-135,338	140,437	-5,099
– Gross Longs:	58,039	742,470	21,275
– Gross Shorts:	193,377	602,033	26,374
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	87.5	61.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	14.5	4.4

2-Year Treasury Note:

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	75.7	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	60.4	4.8
– Net Position:	-407,364	366,500	40,864
– Gross Longs:	375,846	1,812,750	156,826
– Gross Shorts:	783,210	1,446,250	115,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	87.9	56.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.6	38.4	-15.1

5-Year Treasury Note:

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	72.3	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	68.7	11.1
– Net Position:	-14,305	123,653	-109,348
– Gross Longs:	614,922	2,497,297	273,242
– Gross Shorts:	629,227	2,373,644	382,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.6	20.7	33.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	2.5	-42.1

10-Year Treasury Note:

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	71.7	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	64.9	13.9
– Net Position:	-46,131	250,678	-204,547
– Gross Longs:	616,241	2,638,520	305,914
– Gross Shorts:	662,372	2,387,842	510,461
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	41.9	18.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	15.4	-21.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	65.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.9	73.5	18.2
– Net Position:	224,382	-98,724	-125,658
– Gross Longs:	313,444	852,123	109,483
– Gross Shorts:	89,062	950,847	235,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	8.7	2.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.7	-27.6	-17.4

US Treasury Bonds:

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	76.5	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	58.4	15.7
– Net Position:	-178,806	218,869	-40,063
– Gross Longs:	116,329	924,857	149,104
– Gross Shorts:	295,135	705,988	189,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.0	89.9	23.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	1.5	-17.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	81.3	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	58.9	12.8
– Net Position:	-250,679	260,600	-9,921
– Gross Longs:	62,968	943,406	138,132
– Gross Shorts:	313,647	682,806	148,053
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	52.4	6.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	18.3	-2.9

3-Month Eurodollars:

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	49.1	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	52.7	7.9
– Net Position:	740,975	-420,211	-320,764
– Gross Longs:	2,490,606	5,708,260	596,502
– Gross Shorts:	1,749,631	6,128,471	917,266
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	26.6	61.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-0.4	-19.6

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog investing Opinions

06 Mar

COT Bonds Futures Charts: 2-Year, 5-Year Treasury Notes, Eurodollars, Fed Funds

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 02 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

30-Day Federal Funds:

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	72.2	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	60.2	2.5
– Net Position:	-111,057	118,220	-7,163
– Gross Longs:	69,511	711,875	17,501
– Gross Shorts:	180,568	593,655	24,664
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.6	84.4	58.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	18.0	3.7

2-Year Treasury Note:

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	73.7	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	64.5	4.7
– Net Position:	-257,527	211,452	46,075
– Gross Longs:	410,969	1,682,377	153,211
– Gross Shorts:	668,496	1,470,925	107,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.3	58.1	59.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-0.2	-14.2

5-Year Treasury Note:

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	70.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	68.7	10.1
– Net Position:	26,487	60,979	-87,466
– Gross Longs:	699,766	2,467,626	266,697
– Gross Shorts:	673,279	2,406,647	354,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.8	15.2	41.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.5	-18.4	-21.3

10-Year Treasury Note:

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	72.1	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	64.3	14.0
– Net Position:	-95,611	278,002	-182,391
– Gross Longs:	534,323	2,563,667	314,620
– Gross Shorts:	629,934	2,285,665	497,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	44.6	24.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	19.6	-16.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	68.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	72.3	18.4
– Net Position:	182,235	-53,882	-128,353
– Gross Longs:	284,102	863,870	104,869
– Gross Shorts:	101,867	917,752	233,222
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.1	22.5	0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-9.2	-26.7

US Treasury Bonds:

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	76.5	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	57.6	15.6
– Net Position:	-190,334	232,454	-42,120
– Gross Longs:	120,484	939,647	149,680
– Gross Shorts:	310,818	707,193	191,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	94.2	22.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	6.0	-21.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	80.9	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	57.1	13.2
– Net Position:	-255,460	272,678	-17,218
– Gross Longs:	65,849	926,471	134,351
– Gross Shorts:	321,309	653,793	151,569
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	57.3	0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	18.1	-7.8

3-Month Eurodollars:

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	50.4	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	53.1	7.4
– Net Position:	606,399	-308,521	-297,878
– Gross Longs:	2,268,350	5,771,615	545,063
– Gross Shorts:	1,661,951	6,080,136	842,941
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.6	28.2	64.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	2.4	-15.3

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog investing Opinions

04 Mar

Sovereign bond selloff resumes after a short break

By Hussein Sayed Chief Market Strategist (Gulf & MENA), ForexTime

Asian equity markets suffered hefty losses following yesterday’s declines in Wall Street as bond yields resumed their rally. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s HSI dropped nearly 3% with the rest of the Asian stock indices all in the red, while US stock futures show no signs of recovery. All three major indices are indicating a negative start led by Tech stocks. In currencies, the dollar ticked higher against its major peers with USDJPY climbing to a seven-month high above 107.

With US inflation expectations over the next five years reaching a 13-year high and long term-borrowing costs on the rise, central banks face tough challenges comforting investors. Financial conditions are tightening despite the monetary policy being loose and policymakers clearly signaling no intention of raising interest rates anytime soon. The Federal Reserve may need to step up their game by targeting purchases of long-dated bonds to prevent yields from going higher, but so far there are no signs of them implementing this strategy. All eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell today for any signals of possible changes to monetary policy such as yield curve control.

The sovereign bond selloff is not confined to the US. UK 10-year gilts rose more than 10 basis points to 0.8% after Finance Minister Rishi Sunak announced the country’s 2021 budget. And despite the Eurozone being well behind in vaccinating their population and in terms of their economic recovery, bonds also sold off in Germany, France, Italy and Spain. That tells us it is not just economic fundamentals impacting bond prices, but there seems to be a domino effect caused by rising yields in the US.

Energy and Financials were the only sectors ending in the green on the S&P 500 yesterday. The shift to those value sectors will likely resume along with industrials and basic materials after the passing of Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill.

Oil is another asset class firmly on the radar of many traders. Prices rose for a second straight session after Brent crude tested a two-week low of $62.38 on Tuesday. While the record drop in US gasoline inventories lent prices some support, its today’s OPEC+ meeting that will dictate direction over the short-term. If Saudi Arabia chooses not to continue with its unilateral one million b/d output cut and the group increases production by another 500k b/d, we will end up with 1.5 million b/d additional output. That seems to be the base case scenario for many traders.

Given that recent price moves have been driven more by speculative trading than market fundamentals, any disappointment may lead to a sharp selloff. For prices to remain near their pre-pandemic levels or higher, we need to see a positive surprise. That could occur by keeping the group’s output unchanged or if we get a gradual rollback of Saudi Arabia’s unilateral cuts. It is hard to predict the next move of the cartel due to the various opinions within the group’s members, and that is what makes it an exciting event to watch.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Bonds Financial News Stock Market News

27 Feb

COT Bonds Futures Charts: 10-Year Treasury Notes, Eurodollar, Fed Funds

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 23 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

30-Day Federal Funds:

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	72.4	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	62.9	2.0
– Net Position:	-111,478	112,803	-1,325
– Gross Longs:	98,122	863,148	22,222
– Gross Shorts:	209,600	750,345	23,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	83.7	68.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	17.9	13.1

2-Year Treasury Note:

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	63.6	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	64.8	3.2
– Net Position:	-39,871	-29,660	69,531
– Gross Longs:	623,688	1,512,141	145,752
– Gross Shorts:	663,559	1,541,801	76,221
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	11.7	71.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	52.3	-48.2	-0.4

5-Year Treasury Note:

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	61.9	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	62.6	10.2
– Net Position:	95,406	-29,241	-66,165
– Gross Longs:	833,986	2,343,372	318,667
– Gross Shorts:	738,580	2,372,613	384,832
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	7.2	49.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.9	-34.5	-16.0

10-Year Treasury Note:

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	64.1	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	59.6	14.7
– Net Position:	2,789	181,377	-184,166
– Gross Longs:	642,543	2,594,445	411,118
– Gross Shorts:	639,754	2,413,068	595,284
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.5	35.3	24.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	1.8	-19.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	69.0	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.2	72.4	19.2
– Net Position:	173,188	-46,157	-127,031
– Gross Longs:	258,297	940,572	135,254
– Gross Shorts:	85,109	986,729	262,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.1	24.9	0.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-2.4	-34.1

US Treasury Bonds:

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	73.2	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	58.1	16.3
– Net Position:	-156,309	188,155	-31,846
– Gross Longs:	129,775	914,249	172,342
– Gross Shorts:	286,084	726,094	204,188
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.2	80.1	29.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-12.0	-1.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	76.8	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	57.6	13.8
– Net Position:	-215,036	228,517	-13,481
– Gross Longs:	90,156	912,983	150,059
– Gross Shorts:	305,192	684,466	163,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.9	39.4	1.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-4.1	-5.4

3-Month Eurodollars:

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	48.2	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	52.2	7.2
– Net Position:	752,498	-465,476	-287,022
– Gross Longs:	2,372,370	5,575,667	543,029
– Gross Shorts:	1,619,872	6,041,143	830,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	26.0	66.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.7	0.1	-15.3

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog investing Opinions

26 Feb

Yields surge triggers market drama

By Han Tan Market Analyst, ForexTime

The surge in Treasury yields sent shockwaves across broader markets on Thursday, with 10-year yields briefly breaching the 1.60 mark to hit a new one-year high before moderating. At the time of writing, 10-year yields remain some 40 basis points higher on a month-to-date basis.

The steep ascent in yields is prompting investors to cast serious doubt over their exposure to equities, especially for tech stocks. The Nasdaq Composite index has seen its February gains whittled down to 0.37%, with US equity futures pointing to further declines at the Friday open.

Asian benchmark indices are ending the month on a downer, while the rising yields are giving reason for the dollar index (DXY) to keep its head above the 90 psychological level for the time being. The VIX index, also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge also shot above the 30 mark shortly before the US session ended.

Markets paying little heed to the Fed’s narrative

Investors clearly have a hard time buying into the Fed speak insisting that its too early to talk about tapering. Despite repeated attempts this week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed presidents to reframe the narrative, saying that the rising yields are indicative of a rosier economic outlook, investors are instead interpreting the economic data through the US monetary policy lens.

While cognizant of the Fed’s desire to avoid the same policy missteps following the global financial crisis over a decade ago, markets however are of the opinion that improving US economic conditions will cajole the central bank into tightening their policy settings sooner than expected. Fed funds futures are already pointing to an interest rate hike that’s brought forward to end-2022.

The better-than-expected economic prints released this week, including the weekly initial jobless claims, January durable goods orders, and February consumer confidence, are only adding fuel to expectations that the Fed will have to bring its tapering plans forward, despite policymakers’ insistence otherwise. And with President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus programme still in the pipeline, investors are ramping up the chances of an overheating US economy that’s accompanied by the desired inflation overshoot, which in turn shortens the runway till the Fed’s eventual pullback.

With such a debate raging in the markets, we can expect to see more volatile days ahead until markets can reach a greater consensus and a firmer understanding over the Fed’s next policy steps, which should in turn offer a new equilibrium for Treasury yields.

Gold set to post second straight monthly decline

Spot gold is on course to register its 6th monthly loss from the past seven, with rising Treasury yields dealing a blow to the non-yielding precious metal. Bullions year-to-date losses stand at 6.7% at the time of writing.

Despite the threat of rising inflation, investors are clearly willing to ditch gold in favour of other assets that can better ride on the economic recovery’s coattails, as well as the subsequent inflation overshoot. Gold ETFs have shed their holdings by more than 2 million ounces so far this year.

Gold bulls will have all to do in attempting to break the precious metal out of its current downtrend, barring any Fed intervention in quelling the yields surge.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Bonds Financial News

20 Feb

COT Bonds Futures Charts: 10-Year Treasury Notes, Eurodollar, Fed Funds

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 16 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

30-Day Federal Funds:

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	69.6	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	62.3	1.9
– Net Position:	-80,391	83,820	-3,429
– Gross Longs:	136,008	799,270	18,550
– Gross Shorts:	216,399	715,450	21,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.9	79.7	64.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	16.8	9.8

2-Year Treasury Note:

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	67.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	64.0	4.6
– Net Position:	-142,489	85,740	56,749
– Gross Longs:	518,150	1,584,929	165,585
– Gross Shorts:	660,639	1,499,189	108,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.2	33.9	64.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-4.8	-8.7

5-Year Treasury Note:

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	66.6	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	65.4	9.4
– Net Position:	-6,152	43,260	-37,108
– Gross Longs:	793,241	2,345,137	292,707
– Gross Shorts:	799,393	2,301,877	329,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.7	13.6	60.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.8	-20.1	-17.3

10-Year Treasury Note:

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	69.3	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	67.5	14.2
– Net Position:	103,413	64,055	-167,468
– Gross Longs:	645,250	2,498,104	343,023
– Gross Shorts:	541,837	2,434,049	510,491
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.6	23.9	31.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	4.8	-32.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	69.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	72.9	18.1
– Net Position:	157,117	-43,013	-114,104
– Gross Longs:	239,996	872,832	113,410
– Gross Shorts:	82,879	915,845	227,514
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.7	25.8	4.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-3.1	-17.3

US Treasury Bonds:

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	75.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	58.0	14.8
– Net Position:	-191,002	215,916	-24,914
– Gross Longs:	101,705	916,697	153,685
– Gross Shorts:	292,707	700,781	178,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.1	88.9	35.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	6.4	-12.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	77.7	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	56.7	13.6
– Net Position:	-229,297	237,111	-7,814
– Gross Longs:	91,785	875,369	144,842
– Gross Shorts:	321,082	638,258	152,656
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	44.0	6.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-4.9	6.5

3-Month Eurodollars:

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	48.9	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	51.7	7.3
– Net Position:	563,386	-317,754	-245,632
– Gross Longs:	2,087,589	5,566,009	586,384
– Gross Shorts:	1,524,203	5,883,763	832,016
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.0	28.0	71.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	4.8	-18.7

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog investing Opinions

18 Feb

Are higher bond yields spoiling the risk rally?

By Hussein Sayed Chief Market Strategist (Gulf & MENA), ForexTime

Astonishingly upbeat economic data out of the US failed to send equity benchmarks higher on Wednesday. Consumers across the States decided not to keep stimulus checks in their bank accounts but rather spend them on electronics, appliances, furniture and online. Almost every major category in the retail sales report showed a significant increase. The 5.3% growth in January is the largest monthly rise since June, when the US began recovering from strict lockdowns.

Looking at the trend in coronavirus cases and vaccine distribution, we should expect the economic recovery to gather steam over the coming months. Add to this a big, bold fiscal stimulus plan that should speed up the recovery.

According to the FOMC minutes of last month’s monetary policy meeting released overnight, officials are not expected to scale down their asset purchases anytime soon. Achieving the goal of maximum employment will take some time and policymakers don’t seem to be in a rush to shift away from their current crisis mode. However, inflation is the trickier part in setting policy. Producer prices surged in January, rising 1.3% from December and this marked the largest monthly gain in more than a decade. So far, the Fed do not seem that worried about rising prices and they see such moves as temporary and not having a lasting effect.

The combination of robust economic recovery expectations backed by loose monetary policies and supportive fiscal measures should point to further gains in risk assets. But one factor seems to be spoiling the party, and that is rising bond yields. Those on the US 10-year Treasury reached a high of 1.33% on Wednesday before paring some of its gains later in the afternoon and is sitting at 1.28% at the time of writing. The longer term 30-year yield has seen a similar spike over recent weeks, touching 2.11% yesterday. The recent rally seen in yields reflects mainly two things. One is we are finally beating the virus and hence we are headed for strong economic activity. The second part which worries many investors is that inflation may return at a faster pace than previously anticipated.

Going forward, investors need to keep a close eye on how long term yields behave from here.

A steady slow increase may not necessarily disrupt the uptrend in equities but will likely force rotation from highly priced stocks, typically in the tech sector, to more reasonably priced cyclical ones. But another sharp spike in bond yields, in which the 10-year approaches 1.75% in a short time frame could pose a big risk to the bullish trend in the overall equity market.

While the greenback is also benefiting from rising bond yields, the magnitude of the dollar’s rise has been limited so far, with the dollar index, DXY, strengthening 0.7% over the past two days. The inverse correlation between risk-on and the dollar will be tested over the coming weeks, especially if yield differentials continue to widen further between the US and the rest of the developed economies.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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