Archive for Bonds – Page 16

14 Jul

Wipeout! New Update on Our “Green Bond” (ESG) Forecast

Excessive euphoria in financial markets is usually a big reason to be “skeptical”

By Elliott Wave International

Environmental, Social and Governance bonds (ESG) — also called “green” bonds — are offered by companies which want to advance the causes of social justice, social inclusion and green technology.

This form of debt had been steadily gaining in popularity — going from sales of less than $100 billion in 2015 to around $800 billion in 2020.

For instance, here’s an Oct. 9, 2020 headline from Pensions & Investments:

University of Toronto’s $7 billion fund makes bet on ESG debt

However, the Elliott wave structure of a global green-bond index was sending a warning signal.

The July Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets, shows a chart from the December 2020 Global Market Perspective (on the left) and an updated chart on the right.

Focusing on the left chart first, which had sported a five-wave advance (meaning a trend turn was imminent), the December 2020 Global Market Perspective said:

Experts have loudly proclaimed that so-called social bonds will be the next great innovation. … But the euphoria surrounding this new debt is actually one of the biggest reasons to remain skeptical. … Steer clear of both green bonds and social bonds.

Indeed, as the updated right chart shows, the price began to fall shortly after that warning. Eventually, a countertrend rally ensued and by July 13, 2021, a Bloomberg headline said:

ESG Bond Sales Sprint to $1 Trillion as Investors Force Change

Once again, the Global Market Perspective provided a warning — this one from the August 2021 issue:

The wipeout could be one of the biggest ever.

You can see the big price tumble that occurred thereafter.

Do understand that the Elliott wave model does not guarantee that a financial market will behave in one fashion or another. At the same time, it’s the best analytical method of which Elliott Wave International knows because it’s based on the repetitive patterns of investor psychology.

Indeed, here’s what Frost & Prechter had to say in Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior:

The Wave Principle is governed by man’s social nature, and since he has such a nature, its expression generates forms. As the forms are repetitive, they have predictive value. [emphasis added]

For a limited time, our friends at Elliott Wave International are offering you 5 quick takes on Elliott wave patterns in several markets — stocks, pot stocks and bonds — all from their new, July 2022 issue of the Global Market Perspective.

The publication provides analysis for 50+ of the world’s key markets.

See what warnings it’s issuing now.

FREE, check out 5 short excerpts from the new, July Global Market Perspective

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Wipeout! New Update on Our “Green Bond” (ESG) Forecast. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Bonds Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
09 Jul

COT Week 27 Charts: Bond Market Speculators bets higher overall led by Ultra US Bonds & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Bonds futures open interest levels and percents

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT bonds market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Ultra US Bond (19,328 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (15,076 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (11,180 contracts), the Long US Bond (10,580 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (3,338 contracts) also having positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Eurodollar (-192,721 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-51,789 contracts) with the Fed Funds (-24,396 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

bonds futures speculator strength levels & sentiment

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (75.6 percent) is at the highest level of the bonds markets again this week followed by the 2-Year Bond (64.7 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (55.2 percent). On the lower end, the 3-Month Eurodollars (9.7 percent) is the weakest bond market among the speculators and is in a bearish-extreme level again this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (22.9 percent) comes in as the next weakest speculator strength score at the moment but has been on the rise (see chart below) and has come out of the bearish extreme level of the past few weeks.

bonds futures speculators strength trends and sentiment trend

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19.8 percent), the 3-Month Eurodollars (8.9 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (8.3 percent) are leading the rising trend scores over the past six weeks. The 5-Year Bonds (-23.5 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (-18.3 percent) leads the trends on the downside while the 2-Year Bonds (-10.5 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-4.4 percent) also show negative six-week trends.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-05-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar9,569,47114-2,349,151102,628,72088-279,56943
FedFunds1,599,3724796,18651-88,54349-7,64340
2-Year2,103,35614-87,04265171,59157-84,54913
Long T-Bond1,192,98047-27,6737622,028185,64557
10-Year3,469,68028-170,50047303,82058-133,32048
5-Year4,013,99552-254,45339404,95363-150,50040

 

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,349,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -192,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,156,430 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.871.04.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.443.67.4
– Net Position:-2,349,1512,628,720-279,569
– Gross Longs:557,1776,798,600424,934
– Gross Shorts:2,906,3284,169,880704,503
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.6 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.788.042.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.9-10.725.4

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 96,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -24,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.672.42.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.677.93.0
– Net Position:96,186-88,543-7,643
– Gross Longs:201,1001,157,16940,944
– Gross Shorts:104,9141,245,71248,587
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.549.140.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.6-6.1-9.3

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -87,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,076 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,118 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.078.26.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.170.010.9
– Net Position:-87,042171,591-84,549
– Gross Longs:273,3781,643,875144,139
– Gross Shorts:360,4201,472,284228,688
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.757.413.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.514.2-5.4

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -254,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -51,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -202,664 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.083.97.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.373.811.3
– Net Position:-254,453404,953-150,500
– Gross Longs:280,0113,368,874303,153
– Gross Shorts:534,4642,963,921453,653
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.662.739.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.513.75.8

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -170,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -181,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.679.89.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.571.012.8
– Net Position:-170,500303,820-133,320
– Gross Longs:297,7242,767,198310,990
– Gross Shorts:468,2242,463,378444,310
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.558.048.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.3-8.74.3

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.282.511.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.269.922.4
– Net Position:-22,742146,293-123,551
– Gross Longs:60,503959,975136,617
– Gross Shorts:83,245813,682260,168
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.977.842.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.8-16.8-6.6

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.177.513.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.475.713.5
– Net Position:-27,67322,0285,645
– Gross Longs:96,356924,975166,387
– Gross Shorts:124,029902,947160,742
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.618.557.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.311.918.2

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -318,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -337,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.284.111.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.161.88.9
– Net Position:-318,655285,95332,702
– Gross Longs:53,6391,077,401147,290
– Gross Shorts:372,294791,448114,588
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.254.951.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.4-2.110.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News
02 Jul

COT Week 26 Charts: Bond Market Speculators were mixed this week led by Eurodollars & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bonds markets was the 10-Year Bond (46,504 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bond (37,626 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (17,165 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (7,073 contracts) also having a positive week.

Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Eurodollar (-158,541 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-98,573 contracts) with the Long US Bond (-18,931 contracts) and Fed Funds (-3,839 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (72.1 percent) remains at the highest level of the bonds markets currently while the 2-Year Bond is creeping up at 62 percent. On the lower end of their ranges, the 3-Month Eurodollars (13 percent) is in a bearish-extreme level while the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (22 percent) comes in next lowest but has been risen from around 7 percent last week.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) are leading the six-week trends with Eurodollars (13 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (10 percent) coming in next. The US Treasury Bond leads the trends on the downside with a -22.9 percent trend change followed by the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-17.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next.

 

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-28-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar9,521,91613-2,156,430132,512,42586-355,99526
FedFunds1,748,85557120,58255-111,40246-9,18036
2-Year2,118,89015-102,11862194,56262-92,44410
Long T-Bond1,182,84046-38,2537237,023241,23054
10-Year3,403,34423-181,68045329,40461-147,72445
5-Year3,962,28049-202,66448373,43159-170,76734

 

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,156,430 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -158,541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,997,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.270.54.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.844.17.9
– Net Position:-2,156,4302,512,425-355,995
– Gross Longs:588,8286,711,010391,853
– Gross Shorts:2,745,2584,198,585747,848
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.386.026.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.3-14.015.5

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 120,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,839 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 124,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.970.82.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.077.22.8
– Net Position:120,582-111,402-9,180
– Gross Longs:243,4001,238,61839,186
– Gross Shorts:122,8181,350,02048,366
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.546.436.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.8-8.0-14.4

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -102,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.077.86.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.868.610.7
– Net Position:-102,118194,562-92,444
– Gross Longs:275,4281,647,599134,145
– Gross Shorts:377,5461,453,037226,589
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.662.410.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.6-3.2-7.5

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -202,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -98,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.383.17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.573.711.7
– Net Position:-202,664373,431-170,767
– Gross Longs:330,7593,293,540291,486
– Gross Shorts:533,4232,920,109462,253
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.758.934.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.1-5.4-3.7

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -181,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 46,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -228,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.180.09.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.470.413.5
– Net Position:-181,680329,404-147,724
– Gross Longs:274,8582,724,138312,558
– Gross Shorts:456,5382,394,734460,282
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.861.044.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.31.32.5

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -26,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 37,626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.283.311.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.370.621.5
– Net Position:-26,080152,060-125,980
– Gross Longs:61,919998,346131,429
– Gross Shorts:87,999846,286257,409
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.079.340.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.7-12.5-14.1

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.878.813.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.075.613.8
– Net Position:-38,25337,0231,230
– Gross Longs:80,552931,822164,556
– Gross Shorts:118,805894,799163,326
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.124.053.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.918.414.8

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -337,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -345,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:3.385.011.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.661.19.1
– Net Position:-337,983307,34630,637
– Gross Longs:42,1791,092,416148,217
– Gross Shorts:380,162785,070117,580
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.365.450.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.721.20.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News
25 Jun

COT Week 25 Charts: Bond Market Speculator bets rose this week led by 5-Year & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

bonds-oi open interest analysis comparison futures

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bond (86,980 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (41,139 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bond (17,501 contracts), Fed Funds (13,490 contracts) and the Long US Bond (10,078 contracts) also showing higher speculator bets for the week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Eurodollar (-143,197 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-22,655 contracts) with the Ultra US Bond (-3,455 contracts) also seeing lower speculator bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (78.3 percent) is at the highest level of the bonds markets currently with the 5-Year Bond (65 percent), 2-Year Bond (58.2 percent), and Fed Funds (55 percent) following. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12.2 percent) and 3-Month Eurodollars (16.2 percent) continue to remain in bearish-extreme levels and have the weakest speculator strength scores at the moment.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the 5-Year Bond (38.9 percent) continues to lead the strength trends. Next up is Eurodollars (11.1 percent) and then Fed Funds with a 9.3 percent strength change over the past six weeks. The 10-Year Bonds (-21.6 percent) leads the falling speculator trends over the past six weeks followed by the Ultra US Treasury Bonds (-13.7 percent) and then the US Treasury Bond (-11.3 percent).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-21-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar9,411,17311-1,997,889162,355,14383-357,25426
FedFunds1,646,30350124,42155-125,477451,05662
2-Year2,086,91713-119,28358205,59965-86,31613
Long T-Bond1,177,79145-19,3227837,92126-18,59938
10-Year3,440,08525-228,18438404,75470-176,57038
5-Year3,854,22843-104,09165289,49349-185,40230

 

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,997,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -143,197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,854,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.569.64.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.844.68.1
– Net Position:-1,997,8892,355,143-357,254
– Gross Longs:614,9346,554,406400,504
– Gross Shorts:2,612,8234,199,263757,758
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.283.225.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.1-12.016.0

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 124,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.170.02.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.577.62.6
– Net Position:124,421-125,4771,056
– Gross Longs:231,3441,151,99743,549
– Gross Shorts:106,9231,277,47442,493
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.044.762.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.3-9.32.4

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -119,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 41,139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.376.86.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.067.010.6
– Net Position:-119,283205,599-86,316
– Gross Longs:257,3751,603,236134,031
– Gross Shorts:376,6581,397,637220,347
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.264.812.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.50.9-4.8

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -104,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 86,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -191,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.780.97.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.473.412.4
– Net Position:-104,091289,493-185,402
– Gross Longs:373,8073,119,594292,913
– Gross Shorts:477,8982,830,101478,315
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.048.630.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:38.9-25.9-2.4

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -228,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -22,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -205,529 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.880.38.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.568.513.5
– Net Position:-228,184404,754-176,570
– Gross Longs:269,6852,760,756287,654
– Gross Shorts:497,8692,356,002464,224
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.870.037.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.616.21.4

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -63,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.685.68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.868.021.2
– Net Position:-63,706212,999-149,293
– Gross Longs:55,0611,035,003107,499
– Gross Shorts:118,767822,004256,792
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.294.926.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.31.5-23.2

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,400 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.477.113.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.173.914.7
– Net Position:-19,32237,921-18,599
– Gross Longs:99,282907,963154,938
– Gross Shorts:118,604870,042173,537
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.326.537.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.314.8-6.5

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -345,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -341,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:3.385.111.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.360.39.2
– Net Position:-345,056316,83628,220
– Gross Longs:42,4281,089,411145,784
– Gross Shorts:387,484772,575117,564
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.470.048.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.712.85.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News
21 Jun

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield: Anticipating the Rising Trend

“The tidal wave of risk assumption … may be turning”

By Elliott Wave International

On June 14, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surpassed 3.45% — its highest level in more than 11 years.

Keep in mind that the lowest intraday reading for the yield on the 10-year note was 0.31% — and that was as recently as 2020. So the rise has been remarkable.

The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides analysis of major U.S. financial markets, was ahead of this trend reversal. Back in March 2020, the publication showed this graph of yields on global bonds, 10-year U.S. Treasury notes and general obligation municipal bonds. Here’s the commentary:

According to 150 years’ worth of data … this is the first time that 10-year Treasury note yields have dropped below 1%. Grand Supercycle-degree tops set Grand Supercycle records. Investor ebullience is the only thing that allows for an embrace of no-yield debt. The tidal wave of risk assumption, however, may be turning.

In other words: Expect the downward trend in yields to turn upward.

Shortly after that March 2020 analysis in the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast published, yields began to climb.

As you might imagine, bond portfolios have taken a substantial hit (bond prices sink as yields climb).

Shifting to corporate bond portfolios, Bloomberg had this headline on March 14 of this year:

Corporate Bond Rout Is So Severe History Books Need a Revision

The article goes on to say:

[U.S. corporate bond] losses have piled so high that they now belong in history books. A Bloomberg index of investment-grade returns is down 10.5% so far this year … There is little precedent for drops of that magnitude.

Mind you, this was back in March and yields have risen since.

As a May 12 headline from the Associated Press said:

Bonds, haven for elderly and cautious, are getting torched

The question is: What does the Wave Principle say about this rising trend in bond yields?

If you need to brush up on your knowledge of the Wave Principle, an ideal book to read is Frost & Prechter’s Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market. Here’s a quote from this Wall Street classic:

All waves may be categorized by relative size, or degree. The degree of a wave is determined by its size and position relative to component, adjacent and encompassing waves. Elliott named nine degrees of waves, from the smallest discernible on an hourly chart to the largest wave he could assume existed from the data then available. He chose the following terms for these degrees, from largest to smallest: Grand Supercycle, Supercycle, Cycle, Primary, Intermediate, Minor, Minute, Minuette, Subminuette. Cycle waves subdivide into Primary waves that subdivide into Intermediate waves that in turn subdivide into Minor waves, and so on. The specific terminology is not critical to the identification of degrees, although out of habit, today’s practitioners have become comfortable with Elliott’s nomenclature.

When labeling waves on a graph, some scheme is necessary to differentiate the degrees of waves in the market’s progression. We have standardized a sequence of labels involving numbers and letters … .

If you’re interested in reading the entire book, know that you can gain free access to the online version once you become a member of Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community.

Club EWI is free to join, and members enjoy free access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on investing and trading.

Get started by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — free, unlimited and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield: Anticipating the Rising Trend. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Bonds Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
18 Jun

COT Week 24 Charts: Bond Market Speculators Bets mostly higher led by Eurodollar & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT bond market speculator bets were mixed as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had falling speculator contracts for the week.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (791,810 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (60,658 contracts) with Fed Funds (56,698 contracts), 5-Year Bond (31,476 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (10,067 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Long US Bond (-34,363 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-26,628 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-5,373 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (75 percent) is at the highest level of the bonds markets currently. On the lower end, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7.7 percent) and 3-Month Eurodollars (15.4 percent) are in bearish-extreme levels and have the weakest speculator strength scores at the moment.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the 5-Year Bond (22.5 percent) and Fed Funds (20.5 percent) are leading the rising trend scores over the past six weeks. The US Treasury Bond leads the trends on the downside with a -9.2 percent trend change followed by the 10-Year Bonds and Ultra 10-Year Bonds.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-14-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar9,327,8249-1,854,692192,223,30381-368,61123
FedFunds1,680,51252110,93153-115,511464,58071
2-Year2,012,00410-160,42250228,21170-67,78920
Long T-Bond1,188,80647-29,4007543,87032-14,47041
10-Year3,509,63930-205,52941374,01866-168,48940
5-Year3,889,42245-191,07150372,68159-181,61031

 

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,854,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 791,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,646,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.068.94.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.945.18.4
– Net Position:-1,854,6922,223,303-368,611
– Gross Longs:651,7506,428,169412,783
– Gross Shorts:2,506,4424,204,866781,394
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.880.823.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.4-15.711.1

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 110,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 56,698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.270.82.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.677.62.5
– Net Position:110,931-115,5114,580
– Gross Longs:221,5961,189,10146,737
– Gross Shorts:110,6651,304,61242,157
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.345.971.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.5-21.425.1

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -160,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -170,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.777.37.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.765.910.5
– Net Position:-160,422228,211-67,789
– Gross Longs:236,1151,554,892143,727
– Gross Shorts:396,5371,326,681211,516
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.969.720.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.3-3.820.3

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -191,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 31,476 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -222,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.680.87.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.571.212.5
– Net Position:-191,071372,681-181,610
– Gross Longs:374,6013,141,449302,708
– Gross Shorts:565,6722,768,768484,318
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.758.831.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.5-16.72.5

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -205,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 60,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.280.38.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.169.713.5
– Net Position:-205,529374,018-168,489
– Gross Longs:253,4852,819,950305,184
– Gross Shorts:459,0142,445,932473,673
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.266.339.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.87.2-0.6

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.583.711.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.166.221.8
– Net Position:-81,207213,971-132,764
– Gross Longs:55,0471,027,514134,825
– Gross Shorts:136,254813,543267,589
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.795.236.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.7-2.9-11.3

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -29,400 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -34,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.776.813.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.173.114.3
– Net Position:-29,40043,870-14,470
– Gross Longs:102,957912,867155,248
– Gross Shorts:132,357868,997169,718
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.032.341.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.012.73.3

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -341,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -26,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -314,973 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:3.284.111.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.560.19.1
– Net Position:-341,601311,38630,215
– Gross Longs:41,1471,091,594147,658
– Gross Shorts:382,748780,208117,443
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.967.450.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.26.27.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News
12 Jun

COT Week 23 Charts: Bond Speculator bets mostly falling this week led by 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Bond market speculator bets were mostly on the lower side this week as only three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the COT bonds markets was the Eurodollar (208,714 contracts) and the Fed Funds (29,026 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bond (29,533 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 2-Year Bond (-42,371 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-27,280 contracts) with the Long US Bond (-14,798 contracts), Ultra US Bond (-5,695 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-4,759 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Ultra US Treasury Bond and the US Treasury Bond are above their midpoint levels for the past 3 years while all the other markets are below the 50 percent level. The US Treasury Bond is actually in an extreme-bullish level currently while the Eurodollar and the Ultra 10-Year Note are both in extreme-bearish levels at the moment.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate the 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the 5-Year Bond and the Ultra US Treasury Bond have had the highest rising scores over the past six weeks. On the downside, the 10-Year Bond and the 2-Year Bond have shown the largest downward trends.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-07-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar10,409,83432-2,646,50243,023,49095-376,98821
FedFunds1,568,8234454,23346-47,93254-6,30144
2-Year2,002,13410-170,48948225,04069-54,55126
Long T-Bond1,193,131484,96386-5,6331867053
10-Year3,469,94828-266,18732426,52473-160,33742
5-Year3,784,73239-222,54744409,46363-186,91630

 

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,646,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 208,714 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,855,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:3.574.13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.045.07.4
– Net Position:-2,646,5023,023,490-376,988
– Gross Longs:367,4767,712,618389,949
– Gross Shorts:3,013,9784,689,128766,937
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.295.121.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.3-3.514.9

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 54,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,026 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.674.52.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.177.53.0
– Net Position:54,233-47,932-6,301
– Gross Longs:149,8531,168,08940,470
– Gross Shorts:95,6201,216,02146,771
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.354.143.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.9-2.819.2

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -170,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -42,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -128,118 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.079.87.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.568.69.9
– Net Position:-170,489225,040-54,551
– Gross Longs:200,3071,598,627143,536
– Gross Shorts:370,7961,373,587198,087
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.869.125.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.49.016.5

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -222,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -217,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.580.97.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.470.112.4
– Net Position:-222,547409,463-186,916
– Gross Longs:359,7153,061,190283,380
– Gross Shorts:582,2622,651,727470,296
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.263.229.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.1-8.75.5

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -266,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -238,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.681.08.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.368.713.5
– Net Position:-266,187426,524-160,337
– Gross Longs:195,1202,810,360307,456
– Gross Shorts:461,3072,383,836467,793
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.072.641.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.616.13.1

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 29,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.581.811.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.666.720.0
– Net Position:-75,834187,134-111,300
– Gross Longs:67,8841,015,640137,608
– Gross Shorts:143,718828,506248,908
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.188.348.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.5-3.612.2

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.574.814.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.075.214.0
– Net Position:4,963-5,633670
– Gross Longs:112,838892,073168,164
– Gross Shorts:107,875897,706167,494
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.218.353.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.9-1.215.1

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -314,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -309,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:3.483.511.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.060.79.8
– Net Position:-314,973290,77124,202
– Gross Longs:42,9571,067,607149,154
– Gross Shorts:357,930776,836124,952
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.757.245.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.9-8.7-8.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News
04 Jun
trading

COT Week 22 Charts: Bonds Speculator positions lower across the board

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT bonds market speculator bets were lower this week as all eight bond markets we cover had lower positioning this week. Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 5-Year Bond (-97,261 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (-92,825 contracts) with the Eurodollar (-22,436 contracts), Fed Funds (-17,284 contracts), 10-Year Bond (-13,783 contracts), Long US Bond (-8,741 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (-6,442 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-1,383 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week.

 

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that most of the bond markets are below their midpoints (50 percent) for the past 3 years.  The US Treasury Bond, 2-Year and the Ultra US Bond have all gone above the midpoint and the US Treasury Bond has now entered extreme bullish levels as compared to its range over the past 3 years.

Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows a mixed picture with half the bond markets rising over the past six weeks and half not.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-31-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar10,374,10531-2,855,21603,260,72299-405,50615
FedFunds1,907,2356925,20743-17,30358-7,90440
2-Year2,219,49719-128,11856193,10362-64,98521
Long T-Bond1,212,0235119,761911,62721-21,38836
10-Year3,470,80828-238,90736411,18371-172,27639
5-Year3,804,71540-217,78845367,35558-149,56740

 

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,855,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -22,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,832,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:3.275.43.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.744.07.5
– Net Position:-2,855,2163,260,722-405,506
– Gross Longs:332,8117,825,376371,699
– Gross Shorts:3,188,0274,564,654777,205
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.499.315.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.54.86.9

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.275.91.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.876.82.4
– Net Position:25,207-17,303-7,904
– Gross Longs:117,4071,448,06637,077
– Gross Shorts:92,2001,465,36944,981
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.757.839.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.8-1.411.0

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -128,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -92,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.977.26.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.668.59.4
– Net Position:-128,118193,103-64,985
– Gross Longs:263,5301,714,483143,470
– Gross Shorts:391,6481,521,380208,455
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.462.121.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.2-5.112.2

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -217,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -97,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -120,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.181.47.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.971.711.4
– Net Position:-217,788367,355-149,567
– Gross Longs:348,1193,096,723285,676
– Gross Shorts:565,9072,729,368435,243
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.058.139.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.5-15.916.3

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -238,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -225,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.179.69.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.067.814.0
– Net Position:-238,907411,183-172,276
– Gross Longs:245,5572,764,399313,090
– Gross Shorts:484,4642,353,216485,366
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.170.738.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.2-13.13.9

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -105,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,925 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.881.811.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.464.720.4
– Net Position:-105,367210,588-105,221
– Gross Longs:59,6431,010,524147,144
– Gross Shorts:165,010799,936252,365
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.494.352.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.35.05.2

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.975.913.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.375.814.7
– Net Position:19,7611,627-21,388
– Gross Longs:120,014920,309157,340
– Gross Shorts:100,253918,682178,728
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.020.635.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.1-6.3-8.8

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -309,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -307,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:3.283.411.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.261.19.9
– Net Position:-309,278287,59121,687
– Gross Longs:41,1901,074,846148,794
– Gross Shorts:350,468787,255127,107
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.055.743.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.5-11.4-3.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News
28 May

COT Week 21 Charts: Bonds Speculator bets mostly lower this week

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

bonds-oi cot open interest

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT bonds market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as only three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets saw lower positions. Leading the gains for bonds was the 5-Year Bond (139,697 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (99,344 contracts) with the Eurodollar (41,671 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 10-Year Bond (-65,033 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-13,336 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-1,088 contracts), Long US Bond (-3,505 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-6,524 contracts) also coming in with lower bets on the week.

Speculator strength standings for each Bond Market where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme

  • OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range
  • Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range
  • Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength
Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-24-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar10,441,56633-2,832,78013,227,86099-395,08017
FedFunds1,859,0676542,49145-38,49355-3,99850
2-Year2,526,00032-35,29375106,85443-71,56119
Long T-Bond1,267,2446028,50294-11,22417-17,27839
10-Year3,662,62841-225,12438376,66567-151,54144
5-Year4,011,41252-120,52762292,04849-171,52134

 

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,832,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 41,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,874,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:3.475.43.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.544.57.5
– Net Position:-2,832,7803,227,860-395,080
– Gross Longs:351,9097,877,754384,474
– Gross Shorts:3,184,6894,649,894779,554
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.898.717.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.53.13.7

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 42,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.475.52.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.177.52.3
– Net Position:42,491-38,493-3,998
– Gross Longs:119,2021,403,14439,289
– Gross Shorts:76,7111,441,63743,287
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.955.249.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.0-2.633.5

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -35,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 99,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -134,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.373.05.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.768.88.7
– Net Position:-35,293106,854-71,561
– Gross Longs:361,6141,845,029147,143
– Gross Shorts:396,9071,738,175218,704
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.143.218.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.2-11.4-1.5

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -120,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 139,697 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -260,224 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.177.19.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.169.814.0
– Net Position:-120,527292,048-171,521
– Gross Longs:405,4753,093,412388,207
– Gross Shorts:526,0022,801,364559,728
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.148.933.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.6-30.610.2

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -225,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -65,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.577.49.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.667.113.8
– Net Position:-225,124376,665-151,541
– Gross Longs:273,6672,834,111354,203
– Gross Shorts:498,7912,457,446505,744
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.266.643.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.4-14.411.0

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -98,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.380.911.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.064.520.7
– Net Position:-98,925211,834-112,909
– Gross Longs:68,3051,044,490153,665
– Gross Shorts:167,230832,656266,574
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.194.647.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.30.320.8

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.272.814.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.973.715.4
– Net Position:28,502-11,224-17,278
– Gross Longs:141,452922,729177,518
– Gross Shorts:112,950933,953194,796
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.916.638.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.0-7.5-7.9

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -307,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -294,559 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:3.681.811.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.860.910.3
– Net Position:-307,895290,25217,643
– Gross Longs:50,1531,136,228161,147
– Gross Shorts:358,048845,976143,504
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.657.040.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.2-7.2-7.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News
25 May

The Fed Giveth, The Fed Taketh Away

By Ino.com

– With the stock market tanking and the Federal Reserve finally starting to raise interest rates and reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet, it’s probably a good time to look back and determine how much of the stock market’s gains in the past 12 years or so have been built on extremely accommodative Fed monetary policy. That could provide some idea of how much we can expect the market to drop once the Fed has finally stopped the tightening process, and when stocks might start rising again.

Since reaching its all-time high of 16,057 back on November 15, the NASDAQ had dropped nearly 29% as of May 18, when it closed at 11,418. Likewise, the S&P 500 is down nearly 18% since it hit its all-time high on December 27, while the Dow is off more than 13% after reaching its peak on that same day.

Those declines followed several indications from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials that the central bank had finally conceded that inflation wasn’t “transitory” after all and that it had to act aggressively before inflation got totally out of control.

The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on March 16, its first rate increase since December 2018, and another 50 bps on May 4, its largest increase since May 2000. The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for the middle of next month, at which it is expected to vote for another 50-bp hike, followed by several more by the end of the year. If the Fed raises rates by 50 bps at each of its next five meetings, including the one right before Election Day, that will push its benchmark rate to about 3.5%, its highest level since January 2008. That was just before the onset of the global financial crisis and the Great Recession.

Then began an unprecedented series of Fed rate cuts and massive asset purchases that, with a few pauses in 2017 and 2018, have continued until now. They have helped boost stock prices to record levels, even though U.S. economic performance during most of that time was generally considered to be subpar, and we suffered through a global pandemic that shut down major parts of the economy for long periods.

So it’s probably valid to ask how much of the stock market’s rise since 2008 has been due to accommodative Fed monetary policy and how much to good old-fashioned fundamentals, like corporate earnings. In other words, how deep can we expect stock prices to drop once the Fed is done with this tightening process?

Looking at the S&P 500 chart, the index is now back down to about where it was about a year ago, meaning that all of the gains from the past year have disappeared. The NASDAQ’s drop has been even more severe; it’s back to where it was in the fall of 2020. So the question is: How far can we reasonably expect stocks to fall before all of the Fed’s irrationally exuberant monetary policy has wrung itself out of the system, and stocks can then begin to rise again? I.e., how will we know when we’ve hit bottom?

Is it reasonable to say that the Fed was responsible for half of the stock market’s gains since March 2009, which is generally considered the stock market bottom during the Great Recession? If so, boys and girls, we’ve got a long way to go before we hit bottom this time.

On March 2, 2009, the S&P 500 registered 683, after which it began a nearly 12-year climb upward that, with a few minor corrections along the way, basically wouldn’t end until February 2020, when the first signs emerged of what would become the Covid-19 pandemic. From February 2020 to March 16, the S&P would plunge nearly 32%, after which it was rescued by the Fed, which quickly cut interest rates back to zero and increased its balance sheet to nearly $9 trillion. The S&P then more than doubled by December 2021, when the markets finally came to the realization that the Fed-sponsored party was over.

So, to recap, between the March 2009 bottom of 683 and December 27, 2021, top of 4,766, the S&P 500 gained nearly 600%, not including dividends. That neatly tracks the Fed’s monetary stimulus programs dating back to the Great Recession. If we say the Fed was responsible for half of that gain, that will put the S&P back to about 2,700 after the removal of the Fed stimulus. Since the S&P 500 is now at about 3,900, that would indicate we might expect another 1,000 point drop in the index, putting it back to where it was about two years ago. Is it unrealistic to think that we have about two years’ worth of Fed froth to wring out of the market?

I’m not predicting that, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think it could happen. So if you’re looking for an opportunity to jump back into the market, you have time.

Visit back to read my next article!

George Yacik
INO.com Contributor – Fed & Interest Rates

Disclosure: This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: The Fed Giveth, The Fed Taketh Away

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