By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat, Corn & Soybean Meal
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (33,391 contracts) with Corn (30,483 contracts), Soybean Meal (24,649 contracts), Soybeans (12,596 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,577 contracts), Cotton (7,019 contracts), Cocoa (2,145 contracts) and Coffee (2,204 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-11,963 contracts) with Sugar (-2,872 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-807 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.
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Wheat leads Soft Commodities Price Performances this week
The top market this week in the Soft Commodities price performances was Wheat, which rose by a strong 7.17% over the past five days. Soybean Oil comes in next with a 2.84% rise on the week, while Lean Hogs was up by 2.68%.
Soybeans had a modest 0.52% gain on the week, and Corn rounded out the gainers with a 0.16% increase.
On the downside, Sugar dipped by -0.27%, followed by Soybean Meal, which fell by a similar -0.30%. Cotton dropped by more than -2.5% with a -2.88% decline, while Live Cattle dropped by -4.27%, and Coffee fell by -4.93% over the past five days.
The biggest decliner on the week was Cocoa, which saw a reduction by -6.08%.
Soft Commodities Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Cotton & Wheat
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (96 percent) and Wheat (86 percent) currently lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (74 percent), Soybeans (71 percent) and Soybean Meal (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Cocoa (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (38 percent) and the Live Cattle (47 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (54.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (50.0 percent)
Sugar (38.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (39.0 percent)
Coffee (51.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.9 percent)
Soybeans (71.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (68.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (73.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (68.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (70.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (60.5 percent)
Live Cattle (46.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (58.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.5 percent)
Cotton (95.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (91.7 percent)
Cocoa (11.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.8 percent)
Wheat (85.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (57.5 percent)
Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (21 percent) and Coffee (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (9 percent), Cocoa (6 percent) and Cotton (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Soybean Meal (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-17 percent), Soybean Oil (-17 percent) and Live Cattle (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-9.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-27.4 percent)
Sugar (9.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.1 percent)
Coffee (14.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (9.0 percent)
Soybeans (-13.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-20.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-16.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-28.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-37.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-5.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-24.2 percent)
Cotton (6.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.4 percent)
Cocoa (6.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (3.1 percent)
Wheat (20.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-33.9 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 131,463 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position increase of 30,483 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,980 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.2 | 41.2 | 8.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.5 | 46.8 | 10.4 |
| – Net Position: | 131,463 | -94,976 | -36,487 |
| – Gross Longs: | 482,223 | 703,349 | 140,668 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 350,760 | 798,325 | 177,155 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 54.1 | 42.8 | 73.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.3 | 2.5 | 44.2 |
SUGAR Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,273 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.0 | 47.7 | 7.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 33.2 | 41.9 | 7.1 |
| – Net Position: | -62,145 | 58,263 | 3,882 |
| – Gross Longs: | 270,018 | 477,149 | 74,460 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 332,163 | 418,886 | 70,578 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 38.4 | 63.2 | 37.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.0 | -8.6 | 4.3 |
COFFEE Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,623 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 32.3 | 38.2 | 4.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.6 | 55.9 | 3.3 |
| – Net Position: | 27,827 | -29,450 | 1,623 |
| – Gross Longs: | 53,913 | 63,817 | 7,156 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 26,086 | 93,267 | 5,533 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 51.1 | 49.7 | 43.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 14.5 | -15.5 | 26.3 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 125,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position boost of 12,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,807 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.0 | 49.8 | 4.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.5 | 59.8 | 7.0 |
| – Net Position: | 125,403 | -101,014 | -24,389 |
| – Gross Longs: | 220,823 | 500,119 | 46,389 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 95,420 | 601,133 | 70,778 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.5 | 29.5 | 37.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.8 | 14.6 | -4.8 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 107,243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position rise of 12,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,666 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.1 | 47.4 | 5.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 8.3 | 66.0 | 4.0 |
| – Net Position: | 107,243 | -118,359 | 11,116 |
| – Gross Longs: | 159,949 | 302,751 | 36,891 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 52,706 | 421,110 | 25,775 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 73.9 | 25.1 | 73.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -16.6 | 14.6 | 17.7 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 87,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position gain of 24,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,388 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.4 | 43.4 | 8.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.9 | 62.0 | 4.5 |
| – Net Position: | 87,037 | -111,252 | 24,215 |
| – Gross Longs: | 170,509 | 260,244 | 51,424 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 83,472 | 371,496 | 27,209 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 70.5 | 29.2 | 78.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -28.0 | 26.0 | 27.4 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 69,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decrease of -11,963 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,668 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 39.2 | 33.5 | 9.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.9 | 53.1 | 11.6 |
| – Net Position: | 69,705 | -61,324 | -8,381 |
| – Gross Longs: | 122,352 | 104,345 | 27,905 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 52,647 | 165,669 | 36,286 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 46.5 | 46.0 | 68.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.7 | 6.7 | 36.9 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -65,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decline of -807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,421 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.9 | 43.7 | 7.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 44.8 | 21.5 | 7.1 |
| – Net Position: | -65,228 | 63,153 | 2,075 |
| – Gross Longs: | 62,355 | 124,457 | 22,248 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 127,583 | 61,304 | 20,173 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 99.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -16.7 | 14.7 | 31.4 |
COTTON Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 95,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position increase of 7,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,428 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 41.7 | 35.1 | 5.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.1 | 67.8 | 2.5 |
| – Net Position: | 95,447 | -105,278 | 9,831 |
| – Gross Longs: | 134,337 | 113,271 | 17,856 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 38,890 | 218,549 | 8,025 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.5 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 95.9 | 6.4 | 72.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.1 | -6.4 | 9.1 |
COCOA Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position boost of 2,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,729 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.7 | 50.2 | 5.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.9 | 45.7 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | -10,584 | 9,170 | 1,414 |
| – Gross Longs: | 33,972 | 102,317 | 10,134 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 44,556 | 93,147 | 8,720 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 11.7 | 86.9 | 40.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.0 | -6.9 | 12.6 |
WHEAT Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position gain of 33,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,730 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.5 | 39.9 | 8.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.3 | 36.3 | 7.9 |
| – Net Position: | -16,339 | 15,634 | 705 |
| – Gross Longs: | 117,880 | 171,307 | 34,741 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 134,219 | 155,673 | 34,036 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 85.5 | 16.2 | 56.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.5 | -19.7 | -9.3 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.
All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
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