COT Release delayed to Monday due to CFTC Holiday Schedule
By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday (delayed due to holiday release).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 7th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar
The COT currency market speculator bets were higher last week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (17,205 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (9,547 contracts), the Mexican Peso (5,443 contracts), the British Pound (4,119 contracts), the EuroFX (3,667 contracts), the US Dollar Index (486 contracts) and with Bitcoin (69 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-18,389 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,652 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,123 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (-192 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
| Nov-07-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD Index | 41,224 | 38 | 19,471 | 57 | -20,161 | 44 | 690 | 14 |
| EUR | 697,624 | 33 | 89,056 | 58 | -117,515 | 45 | 28,459 | 24 |
| GBP | 212,730 | 45 | -16,252 | 44 | 29,166 | 62 | -12,914 | 33 |
| JPY | 259,698 | 81 | -104,040 | 8 | 111,957 | 90 | -7,917 | 37 |
| CHF | 56,756 | 84 | -17,562 | 9 | 27,892 | 90 | -10,330 | 24 |
| CAD | 200,364 | 61 | -67,721 | 0 | 72,568 | 100 | -4,847 | 12 |
| AUD | 192,496 | 52 | -65,563 | 29 | 73,267 | 72 | -7,704 | 34 |
| NZD | 51,001 | 59 | -14,940 | 16 | 17,373 | 84 | -2,433 | 21 |
| MXN | 216,534 | 43 | 36,740 | 62 | -41,220 | 37 | 4,480 | 40 |
| RUB | 20,930 | 4 | 7,543 | 31 | -7,150 | 69 | -393 | 24 |
| BRL | 61,594 | 55 | 26,551 | 69 | -28,276 | 31 | 1,725 | 51 |
| Bitcoin | 21,749 | 100 | -1,677 | 41 | 794 | 0 | 883 | 33 |
Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & Mexican Peso
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (69 percent) and the Mexican Peso (62 percent) led the currency markets. The EuroFX (58 percent), US Dollar Index (57 percent) and the British Pound (44 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (8 percent), the Swiss Franc (9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.6 percent)
EuroFX (58.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (56.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (41.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (8.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (8.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (8.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (28.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (22.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (58.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (68.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (46.6 percent)
Bitcoin (41.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.1 percent)
Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (19 percent) and the Brazilian Real (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (5 percent) and the Japanese Yen (3 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Bitcoin (-52 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-30 percent), Swiss Franc (-24 percent) and the British Pound (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.6 percent)
EuroFX (-4.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-22.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-37.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (3.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-1.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-23.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-19.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-30.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-1.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (19.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (22.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-14.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-19.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (14.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-4.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-52.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-50.3 percent)
Individual COT Forex Markets:
US Dollar Index Futures:
The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,985 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 67.6 | 19.4 | 9.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.4 | 68.3 | 7.8 |
| – Net Position: | 19,471 | -20,161 | 690 |
| – Gross Longs: | 27,866 | 8,000 | 3,903 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 8,395 | 28,161 | 3,213 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.3 to 1 | 0.3 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 57.4 | 43.8 | 13.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.5 | -2.4 | -14.8 |
Euro Currency Futures:
The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 89,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,389 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| EURO Currency Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.5 | 56.0 | 11.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.7 | 72.8 | 7.7 |
| – Net Position: | 89,056 | -117,515 | 28,459 |
| – Gross Longs: | 212,483 | 390,336 | 82,294 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 123,427 | 507,851 | 53,835 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 58.2 | 45.2 | 24.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.0 | 2.6 | 3.9 |
British Pound Sterling Futures:
The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -16,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,371 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| BRITISH POUND Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.0 | 59.1 | 10.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 34.7 | 45.4 | 16.4 |
| – Net Position: | -16,252 | 29,166 | -12,914 |
| – Gross Longs: | 57,532 | 125,781 | 22,020 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 73,784 | 96,615 | 34,934 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 44.5 | 62.0 | 32.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -22.2 | 21.2 | -11.6 |
Japanese Yen Futures:
The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -104,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,848 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| JAPANESE YEN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.5 | 73.1 | 14.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 50.6 | 30.0 | 17.9 |
| – Net Position: | -104,040 | 111,957 | -7,917 |
| – Gross Longs: | 27,238 | 189,951 | 38,560 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 131,278 | 77,994 | 46,477 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.2 | 90.3 | 37.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.2 | -4.0 | 5.7 |
Swiss Franc Futures:
The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,910 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SWISS FRANC Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.2 | 69.1 | 16.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 45.1 | 20.0 | 34.7 |
| – Net Position: | -17,562 | 27,892 | -10,330 |
| – Gross Longs: | 8,054 | 39,228 | 9,391 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 25,616 | 11,336 | 19,721 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 3.5 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.7 | 90.1 | 24.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -23.7 | 12.7 | 5.3 |
Canadian Dollar Futures:
The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -67,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,332 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.6 | 72.5 | 15.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.4 | 36.3 | 18.2 |
| – Net Position: | -67,721 | 72,568 | -4,847 |
| – Gross Longs: | 17,171 | 145,272 | 31,585 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 84,892 | 72,704 | 36,432 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 12.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -30.1 | 27.6 | -17.2 |
Australian Dollar Futures:
The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -65,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,110 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.7 | 65.9 | 11.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 51.7 | 27.8 | 15.3 |
| – Net Position: | -65,563 | 73,267 | -7,704 |
| – Gross Longs: | 34,049 | 126,869 | 21,769 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 99,612 | 53,602 | 29,473 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 28.7 | 72.3 | 33.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 19.5 | -21.9 | 18.9 |
New Zealand Dollar Futures:
The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,817 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.4 | 73.4 | 6.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 47.7 | 39.3 | 10.7 |
| – Net Position: | -14,940 | 17,373 | -2,433 |
| – Gross Longs: | 9,399 | 37,432 | 3,047 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 24,339 | 20,059 | 5,480 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.5 | 84.3 | 21.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.6 | -2.4 | 9.6 |
Mexican Peso Futures:
The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 36,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,297 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| MEXICAN PESO Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 33.1 | 63.5 | 3.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.1 | 82.5 | 1.1 |
| – Net Position: | 36,740 | -41,220 | 4,480 |
| – Gross Longs: | 71,644 | 137,436 | 6,939 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 34,904 | 178,656 | 2,459 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 2.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.6 | 36.7 | 39.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.6 | 13.9 | 3.1 |
Brazilian Real Futures:
The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 26,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 17,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,346 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| BRAZIL REAL Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 71.8 | 22.5 | 5.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.7 | 68.4 | 2.6 |
| – Net Position: | 26,551 | -28,276 | 1,725 |
| – Gross Longs: | 44,244 | 13,835 | 3,350 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 17,693 | 42,111 | 1,625 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.5 to 1 | 0.3 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.9 | 30.6 | 50.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 14.3 | -12.8 | -8.0 |
Bitcoin Futures:
The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 69 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,746 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| BITCOIN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 79.3 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 87.0 | 2.9 | 3.2 |
| – Net Position: | -1,677 | 794 | 883 |
| – Gross Longs: | 17,253 | 1,431 | 1,580 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 18,930 | 637 | 697 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 41.2 | 90.8 | 33.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -52.2 | 76.9 | 14.6 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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