11 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

June 11, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

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Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (9,746 contracts) with Gold (6,325 contracts), Steel (2,593 contracts), Platinum (1,207 contracts) and Silver (351 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Palladium with a total change of -552 contracts on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-06-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold436,3017175,64154-198,1874722,54636
Silver137,8712321,47549-34,0655312,59036
Copper229,75666-25,956824,610921,34627
Palladium11,54176-6,60257,19297-5906
Platinum67,5376524,61372-28,747344,13424

 

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (72 percent) and Steel (65 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (5 percent) and Copper (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (54.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (51.6 percent)
Silver (48.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.4 percent)
Copper (8.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.0 percent)
Platinum (72.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (69.6 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.7 percent)
Steel (65.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.8 percent)

Steel tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (-12 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Silver (-13 percent) and Platinum (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-4.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-9.1 percent)
Silver (-13.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-7.8 percent)
Copper (-7.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-38.6 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-2.1 percent)
Palladium (-6.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-3.8 percent)
Steel (8.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 175,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.426.710.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.272.15.7
– Net Position:175,641-198,18722,546
– Gross Longs:237,467116,36347,595
– Gross Shorts:61,826314,55025,049
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.447.436.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.25.3-10.3

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.531.018.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.055.79.6
– Net Position:21,475-34,06512,590
– Gross Longs:53,14942,78525,871
– Gross Shorts:31,67476,85013,281
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.952.636.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.09.09.3

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.746.17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.035.46.5
– Net Position:-25,95624,6101,346
– Gross Longs:56,660105,98216,315
– Gross Shorts:82,61681,37214,969
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.492.027.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.713.5-46.6

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 24,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.131.610.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.774.24.5
– Net Position:24,613-28,7474,134
– Gross Longs:35,20121,3397,140
– Gross Shorts:10,58850,0863,006
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.4 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.434.023.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.511.5-7.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.569.211.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.76.916.4
– Net Position:-6,6027,192-590
– Gross Longs:2,0237,9921,299
– Gross Shorts:8,6258001,889
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 110.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.697.56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.77.4-9.5

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.881.61.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.371.50.9
– Net Position:-2,7062,593113
– Gross Longs:2,25120,912353
– Gross Shorts:4,95718,319240
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.334.634.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.3-8.56.2

 

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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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