COT Metals Speculators have cooled off their Gold and Copper bets

May 22, 2022

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decrease in the Gold and Copper speculative positions. Gold speculator bets fell this week for the fifth straight week and for the eighth time in the past ten weeks as sentiment for the shiny metal has dulled over the past few months. This latest 5-week decline has amounted to a total reduction of -78,927 contracts from the speculator position. The current speculator standing for Gold remains in bullish position but has descended to lowest level of the past fifteen weeks (at +175,360 contracts), dating back to early February.

Despite the speculator decline, the gold price rebounded by over 1 percent this week (close near $1,842 per ounce) following four straight weeks of decline that brought the Gold futures price down from a high of over $2,000 per ounce in mid-April to roughly $1,800 per ounce to close out last week.

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Copper speculator bets have also cooled over the past couple months and fell this week for the sixth consecutive week. This decline has taken a whopping -60,550 contracts off the speculator position and has dropped the spec level from +36,142 contracts on April 5th to -24,408 contracts this week. This week’s total marks the lowest level for Copper bets in the past 109 weeks, dating back to April 14th of 2020. The slowdown in the Chinese economy and the Covid shutdowns in China have put a dent in the Copper sentiment as China is one of the largest world producers of Copper and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world.

Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were just Platinum (840 contracts) and Palladium (30 contracts).

The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-17,955 contracts), Silver (-2,968 contracts) and Copper (-1,782 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-17-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,730,665	0	325,637	7	-363,869	95	38,232	69
Gold	555,756	30	175,360	33	-206,879	65	31,519	48
Silver	144,534	11	16,114	38	-24,841	75	8,727	0
Copper	189,483	19	-24,408	25	23,059	75	1,349	33
Palladium	9,114	13	-3,215	3	3,621	97	-406	20
Platinum	65,926	32	2,203	7	-6,697	96	4,494	25
Natural Gas	1,118,417	8	-115,012	44	64,340	51	50,672	100
Brent	176,861	21	-34,867	53	32,127	47	2,740	46
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	709,144	24	183,647	73	-156,937	33	-26,710	26
Corn	1,548,438	29	473,743	91	-424,756	11	-48,987	15
Coffee	206,106	0	38,487	72	-40,949	32	2,462	13
Sugar	825,281	6	196,630	77	-245,374	22	48,744	68
Wheat	326,651	8	28,806	57	-26,020	23	-2,786	98

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 175,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 193,315 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	24.8	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	62.0	3.4
– Net Position:	175,360	-206,879	31,519
– Gross Longs:	283,011	137,687	50,588
– Gross Shorts:	107,651	344,566	19,069
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	64.8	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.3	26.1	-5.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,082 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.4	37.6	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	54.7	10.0
– Net Position:	16,114	-24,841	8,727
– Gross Longs:	59,857	54,287	23,121
– Gross Shorts:	43,743	79,128	14,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	74.5	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.8	34.5	-34.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	53.6	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	41.4	7.6
– Net Position:	-24,408	23,059	1,349
– Gross Longs:	53,159	101,533	15,747
– Gross Shorts:	77,567	78,474	14,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.8	75.3	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.6	45.4	-32.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.9	39.4	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	49.6	5.4
– Net Position:	2,203	-6,697	4,494
– Gross Longs:	28,253	26,002	8,051
– Gross Shorts:	26,050	32,699	3,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	95.8	24.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	15.5	-29.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,245 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	62.7	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.2	22.9	15.7
– Net Position:	-3,215	3,621	-406
– Gross Longs:	996	5,712	1,021
– Gross Shorts:	4,211	2,091	1,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.2	97.1	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	12.4	-58.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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