COT Speculators continue to improve their Brent Crude Oil bets

November 15, 2021

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This week’s reports are delayed due to last week’s Veteran’s Day holiday.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 9th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the latest COT Energy data is the rising position of the Brent Oil (Last Day) bets. Brent speculative positions have been steadily improving in the past two months and have now gained for six consecutive weeks. The speculative positions for Brent historically are usually bearish and the net position has continually remained in a bearish overall standing since 2013. The speculator betting is currently trending closer to the neutral zone with the net position at just -11,851 contracts. This latest standing for Brent crude bets puts the positioning at their best level of the past 159 weeks, dating all the way back to October 30th of 2018.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-09-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	2,081,385	22	421,312	46	-461,964	44	40,652	72
Gold	571,025	43	250,181	71	-275,489	30	25,308	42
Silver	144,370	11	36,915	59	-53,669	46	16,754	38
Copper	213,365	36	22,789	59	-33,194	37	10,405	85
Palladium	11,819	24	-2,954	2	3,003	97	-49	42
Platinum	57,866	18	17,630	28	-24,263	74	6,633	55
Natural Gas	1,305,687	45	-142,191	36	98,418	62	43,773	90
Brent	192,398	33	-11,851	100	7,567	0	4,284	82
Heating Oil	421,299	61	20,022	72	-42,921	26	22,899	78
Soybeans	644,317	9	27,584	37	9,085	68	-36,669	11
Corn	1,540,731	28	375,298	78	-320,877	26	-54,421	12
Coffee	312,143	67	60,820	93	-65,365	9	4,545	20
Sugar	897,739	22	212,031	80	-260,761	19	48,730	68
Wheat	405,438	37	19,203	63	-13,409	28	-5,794	74

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 421,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 419,293 net contracts.

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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	33.9	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.3	56.1	2.6
– Net Position:	421,312	-461,964	40,652
– Gross Longs:	552,579	705,286	95,755
– Gross Shorts:	131,267	1,167,250	55,103
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	44.0	72.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-12.9	-6.2

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	39.4	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	35.5	1.7
– Net Position:	-11,851	7,567	4,284
– Gross Longs:	47,922	75,867	7,540
– Gross Shorts:	59,773	68,300	3,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	82.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.3	-51.7	-2.4

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -142,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -137,713 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	43.4	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	35.9	1.9
– Net Position:	-142,191	98,418	43,773
– Gross Longs:	253,588	566,746	67,961
– Gross Shorts:	395,779	468,328	24,188
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	61.9	89.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-2.4	7.7

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	45.9	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	63.4	4.4
– Net Position:	45,069	-53,896	8,827
– Gross Longs:	100,218	141,151	22,325
– Gross Shorts:	55,149	195,047	13,498
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.0	83.1	64.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-3.2	7.9

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	54.5	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	64.7	5.7
– Net Position:	20,022	-42,921	22,899
– Gross Longs:	54,200	229,756	46,970
– Gross Shorts:	34,178	272,677	24,071
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	25.5	77.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	18.6	-3.0

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -45 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,146 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.8	39.7	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	90.1	5.2	0.2
– Net Position:	-14,191	13,490	701
– Gross Longs:	21,027	15,506	769
– Gross Shorts:	35,218	2,016	68
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	7.7 to 1	11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.7	64.3	55.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	10.8	11.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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