COT Speculators continue to improve their Brent Crude Oil bets

November 15, 2021

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This week’s reports are delayed due to last week’s Veteran’s Day holiday.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 9th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the latest COT Energy data is the rising position of the Brent Oil (Last Day) bets. Brent speculative positions have been steadily improving in the past two months and have now gained for six consecutive weeks. The speculative positions for Brent historically are usually bearish and the net position has continually remained in a bearish overall standing since 2013. The speculator betting is currently trending closer to the neutral zone with the net position at just -11,851 contracts. This latest standing for Brent crude bets puts the positioning at their best level of the past 159 weeks, dating all the way back to October 30th of 2018.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-09-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,081,385 22 421,312 46 -461,964 44 40,652 72
Gold 571,025 43 250,181 71 -275,489 30 25,308 42
Silver 144,370 11 36,915 59 -53,669 46 16,754 38
Copper 213,365 36 22,789 59 -33,194 37 10,405 85
Palladium 11,819 24 -2,954 2 3,003 97 -49 42
Platinum 57,866 18 17,630 28 -24,263 74 6,633 55
Natural Gas 1,305,687 45 -142,191 36 98,418 62 43,773 90
Brent 192,398 33 -11,851 100 7,567 0 4,284 82
Heating Oil 421,299 61 20,022 72 -42,921 26 22,899 78
Soybeans 644,317 9 27,584 37 9,085 68 -36,669 11
Corn 1,540,731 28 375,298 78 -320,877 26 -54,421 12
Coffee 312,143 67 60,820 93 -65,365 9 4,545 20
Sugar 897,739 22 212,031 80 -260,761 19 48,730 68
Wheat 405,438 37 19,203 63 -13,409 28 -5,794 74

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 421,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 419,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.


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WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.5 33.9 4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 56.1 2.6
– Net Position: 421,312 -461,964 40,652
– Gross Longs: 552,579 705,286 95,755
– Gross Shorts: 131,267 1,167,250 55,103
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.2 44.0 72.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.2 -12.9 -6.2

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.9 39.4 3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.1 35.5 1.7
– Net Position: -11,851 7,567 4,284
– Gross Longs: 47,922 75,867 7,540
– Gross Shorts: 59,773 68,300 3,256
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 82.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 54.3 -51.7 -2.4

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -142,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -137,713 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.4 43.4 5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.3 35.9 1.9
– Net Position: -142,191 98,418 43,773
– Gross Longs: 253,588 566,746 67,961
– Gross Shorts: 395,779 468,328 24,188
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.9 61.9 89.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.4 -2.4 7.7

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.6 45.9 7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.9 63.4 4.4
– Net Position: 45,069 -53,896 8,827
– Gross Longs: 100,218 141,151 22,325
– Gross Shorts: 55,149 195,047 13,498
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.0 83.1 64.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 -3.2 7.9

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.9 54.5 11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.1 64.7 5.7
– Net Position: 20,022 -42,921 22,899
– Gross Longs: 54,200 229,756 46,970
– Gross Shorts: 34,178 272,677 24,071
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 25.5 77.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -24.4 18.6 -3.0

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -45 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,146 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 53.8 39.7 2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 90.1 5.2 0.2
– Net Position: -14,191 13,490 701
– Gross Longs: 21,027 15,506 769
– Gross Shorts: 35,218 2,016 68
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 7.7 to 1 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.7 64.3 55.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -11.4 10.8 11.5

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.