Week Ahead: NAS100 faces triple risk cocktail

• NAS100 ↑ 11% MTD, recently touching ATH
• Tesla ↑ 5% MTD ahead of earnings on Tuesday 22^nd April
• US-Iran two-week ceasefire deadline expires April 21
• US retail sales sparked moves of ↑ 0.6% & ↓ 0.5% over past year
• Technical levels: 27000, 26500, 26000

The week ahead is packed with top-tier data releases, quarterly earnings from the world’s largest companies and key geopolitical developments.

Investors will be monitoring the looming deadline of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, Tesla earnings and US retail sales among other heavy hitting reports:

Monday, 20th April

• CNY: China loan prime rates
• CAD: Inflation Rate YoY

Tuesday, 21st April

• EUR: Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
• GBP: Unemployment Rate
• NAS100: US retail sales MoM
• The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire

Wednesday, 22nd April

• EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
• ZAR: South Africa CPI, retail sales
• GBP: UK Inflation Rate YoY
• NAS100: Tesla earnings

Thursday, 23rd April

• EU50: Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
• UK100: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
• TWN: Taiwan industrial production, unemployment
• NAS100: US initial jobless claims; S&P Global manufacturing, services PMI

Friday, 24th April

• JPY: Inflation Rate YoY
• CAD: Canada retail sales
• GBP: Retail Sales MoM
• EUR: German Ifo Business Climate
• NAS100: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment

The spotlight shines on FXTM’s NAS100 which has rebounded 16% from its 2026 low. 

Note: FXTM’s NAS100 tracks the underlying Nasdaq 100 index

Recently, US equities have been buoyed by hopes that the US and Iran will secure a permanent ceasefire. This has propelled both the NAS100 and US500 to fresh all-time highs!

Here are 4 factors that could trigger significant price swings:

1) US-Iran truce deadline

The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire on Tuesday April 21^st at day’s end.

Yet markets remain hopeful over both sides extending the truce – which could pave the way for a permanent ceasefire agreement. Despite Trump striking an optimistic tone, markets are likely to remain guarded and highly sensitive to any fresh developments.

• Global sentiment may receive a boost if the truce is extended with hopes of an extended ceasefire supporting the NAS100.
• Should the deadline expire and result in renewed conflict, this may hit risk assets like the NAS100.

2) Tesla Q1 earnings

Earnings season is in full swing with US banks posting solid earnings. US equity markets could be injected with fresh volatility when big tech companies report their results.

One of the world’s largest EV manufacturers with a market cap of over $1.46 trillion will publish its Q1 results on April 22^nd  after US markets close.

Tesla shares have had a rough year so far, down almost 15% YTD. Deliveries already came in below expectations – totaling 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, marking a 14.3% decline from the previous quarter but a 6.2% increase year-over-year.

Markets are forecasting a 3.1% move, either Up or Down, for Tesla stocks post earnings which make up roughly 4% of the NAS100 weight.

3) US retail sales

A string of key US data including the latest US retail sales report may provide fresh insights into the health of the US economy.

Given how this data may influence Fed cut expectations, this could mean fresh volatility for the NAS100 which remains sensitive to interest rates.

Note: US retail sales sparked moves of ↑ 0.6% & ↓ 0.5% over past year

Note: Traders are currently pricing a 35% chance that the Fed cuts rates in 2026.

4) Technical forces

The NAS100 is firmly bullish on the daily charts, recently hitting fresh all-time highs beyond 26300. However, the RSI indicates that prices are heavily overbought.

• A solid breakout above 26500 may trigger an incline toward 27000.
• Weakness below 26500 may open the doors toward 26000 and 25800.