Iran has officially rejected the ceasefire proposal, and Trump’s “deadline” expires today

On Monday, US stock indices showed moderate optimism amid cautious hopes for a 45‑day ceasefire. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.36%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.44%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed the session up 0.54%.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.39 per US dollar, taking advantage of a temporary weakening of the greenback following reports of a potential 45‑day ceasefire. Investor optimism is supported by news that Iran may shift from a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to a system of charging transit fees on tankers – a development that significantly reduces the risk of an uncontrolled inflationary shock. For the Bank of Canada, which keeps its policy rate at 2.25%, such de‑escalation provides a much‑needed breather, allowing the regulator to avoid emergency tightening despite weak manufacturing data (47.6 points) and ongoing pressure on the domestic sector.

European stock markets were closed on Monday due to the Easter holiday.
Silver prices (XAG) continued their downward movement, falling to 72 dollars per ounce. The metal’s dynamics reflect extreme investor confusion as markets attempt to navigate between reports of a possible 45‑day ceasefire and Donald Trump’s hardline ultimatum. Since the start of “Operation Epic Fury,” silver has lost more than 20% of its value, showing the worst performance among precious metals. This is due to its dual nature: as an industrial asset, it suffers from expectations of a global manufacturing slowdown, and as an investment asset, it loses to the US dollar amid expectations of further Fed rate hikes to combat energy‑driven inflation.

Platinum prices (XPT) remain below the psychological threshold of 2,000 dollars per ounce, trading near three‑month lows amid escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf. The market is frozen ahead of Donald Trump’s deadline, set for 20:00 on Tuesday (Eastern Time): the threat of strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure has overshadowed the faint hopes for a 45‑day ceasefire. Geopolitical tensions and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are fueling energy inflation, reinforcing expectations of tighter central‑bank policy and exerting direct pressure on platinum‑group metals as non‑yielding assets.

The oil market displayed characteristic skepticism: after a brief decline on ceasefire‑related headlines, WTI prices resumed their upward movement, closing above 112 dollars per barrel. This underscores that traders still view the physical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a more significant factor than preliminary mediation agreements. The market is now focused on Trump’s deadline, expiring Tuesday at 20:00: the threat of destroying Iran’s civilian infrastructure (bridges and power plants) shifts the conflict into a phase of total economic warfare. The current gap between futures prices and physical oil prices indicates an acute supply shortage that cannot be offset even by releasing strategic reserves.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.55% during the trading session, while China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) did not trade yesterday.

The Australian dollar remains under heavy pressure, holding near a two‑month low at 0.690 USD. For the “aussie,” a high‑risk commodity currency, the combination of an energy shock and potential military escalation creates an extremely toxic environment, only partially softened by last‑minute hopes for diplomatic mediation ahead of the ultimatum. The fundamental picture has been significantly worsened by domestic macroeconomic data: Australia’s March PMI fell into contraction territory for the first time in a year and a half, dropping to 46.6. Particularly alarming is the collapse in the services sector from 52.8 to 46.3, indicating a sharp cooling of consumer activity due to soaring fuel prices and overall geopolitical instability.